Crystal Ballz Projection for 2015 Class

Submitted by alum96 on

Obviously recruiting in the final days is an ever changing event.  Yesterday at this time our "big board" had 15* well known prospects for 4 spots.   Within 18 hours that became 12* well known prospects for 6 spots.

*I included WR Ryan Davis although he is not super realistic, and didn't include WR Auden Tate who is a FSU commit.

So now one might ask what the falling of DE Pickard/TE Snyder to Syracuse/back to Nebraska might mean?  Based on the timing of it, plus the 2 new UM openings all announced in a cluster the bullish take is positive in terms of UM staff telling these candidates their spots were going to other candidates.  It would appear Wheatley Jr. is taking a spot reserved for one of those 2, and other candidate(s) (Clark for Snyder) are out there the staff feels more comfortable with over the past 36 hours.   The bearish take is rut roh raggy.

Crystal ballz can shatter when Harbaugh demands it but here is how it is shaking up.

Player Pick Ballz
TE Clark UMish trending UM
TE/DE Wheatley UM nothing recent
RB Weber UM/OSU 2 ballz to UM since 1/29
WR Davis FL 5 ballz to UF since 1/23
WR Jefferson UM 8 ballz to UM since 1/28
WR Burnett WSU nothing recent
CB Arnette OSU 5 ballz to OSU since 1/29
CB Williamson UF 10 ballz to UF since 1/28
CB Marshall USC All USC
CB Adams UMish 5 ballz to UM btw 1/15-1/21
CB Bush ? No ballz
LB Smith GA massive GA, little movement

 

Hot takes -

Things are starting to look dour on the CB front which is my main worry here.  We need DBs badly, and 2 in this class would be great now that we have 6 spots.  Target #2A Williamson is now being crystal balled to Florida by everyone. Target #2B Arnette is on campus in Columbus and even faithful friend Ace is now crystal ballzing him to OSU, along with Lorenz and others.  Unless Iman  Marshall has given a secret yes this is problematic as all that remains on the board is Rutgers commit Jarius Adams and non offered Markel Bush.

If you take WR Davis and WR Burnette (committed to pass happy WSU) as longshots our known board is only 10 guys for 6 spots with quite a few of those guys heavy leans elsewhere.  This raises the prospect of having to raid a CMU/WMU type player to fill the 5th or 6th spot unless some serious aces (no pun intended) are up Harbaugh's sleeves. You could take a WR Grant Perry out of Northwestern but he is a WR and we need to end the class with defensive players by need.  I haven't thought banking a scholarship was likely up until yesterday with the 2 new openings and how the board is falling at CB (I assumed Arnette was headed here until yesterday).  Maybe 1 scholarship goes to 2016 class. 

Projected class by ballz:

  • TE Chris Clark
  • TE/DE Ty Wheatley Jr.
  • WR Van Jefferson - has come out of nowhere to be a UM favorite ?
  • CB Jarius Adams
  • (cloudy) Wildcard spot - reserved for homerun candidate like Marshall or Smith.  If miss, then hmm.
  • (cloudy) Wildcard spot - Mike Weber.  If miss, then hmm.
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alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^

On the surface it sucks but there are mitigating circumstances

  1. He was offered by OSU last June
  2. He camped at OSU last July
  3. His HS is an Urban Meyer playground.  St Thomas Aquinas is the #1 HS in America for producing NFL talent and it is not even close.  Urban has been in there for years (it's in FL).  Aside from Arnette himself I wanted Harbaugh to get this kid so we can begin getting our grubby fingers into the HS.  We need to get a pipeline going.

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alum96

January 31st, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^

One would have to look at who recruited who to Florida post Urban Meyer but you'd think he'd have some presence there.  Just difficult to go up against Urban there - dude has NC at UF and OSU now.  And he was "the man" in the state of Florida when he was down there and the HS coaches there have a very close relationship with him.   Arnette wasn't a 5 star or anything though which is why it's a bit frustrating Meyer is going after him so hard late but we know why - it's a personal statement to Harbaugh.  Which is cool - he earned, it and keep pissing off Harbaugh.  It only makes him stronger. :)

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M-Dog

January 31st, 2015 at 10:43 AM ^

Man, I'd love to see Harbaugh and Meyer go at it, Pete Carroll style, in Michigan - Ohio State games.  Pick a fight with the biggest bully on the block.

Looks like Meyer is going out of his way to make sure that happens no matter what.  Now Harbaugh has something to bounce all that energy off of, if he didn't already have it.

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bacon

January 31st, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^

Harbaugh is going after some big time recruits who are going to be tough to get, but you gotta love the competitive aspect of that. He's also trying to flip guys from some good programs and has had some success with Gentry and Jones. But getting kids to flip this late is unlikely. But I like the approach and I think it says something about the current roster that he's not desperate to fill spots. He's gambling on guys he thinks are good fits and this late in the game, fewer are willing to bite. But if he pulls only in Clark and/or Wheatley, I'd say that's a great haul.

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maize-blue

January 31st, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^

I think there is legitimate interest in most of these targets. But really the only thing JH has to sell is a promise that they can win. The past two seasons don't really help in persuading any of these guys, unless they are Michigan fans to begin with. Harbaugh's come out swinging and he might as well start going after top 2016 guys. Again, he can sell that they will win and if he proves it in 2015 with a decent to good year, I'd expect the 2016 class to be loaded.

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M-Dog

January 31st, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^

He's also going after a lot of out-of-region guys in the south and west, in January no less.  

That they are willing to take a look at us at all speaks volumes.

Give him time to establish some real relationships and bring kids in to A2 in the summer and fall, and the large 2016 class could be something special.

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carnut

January 31st, 2015 at 10:17 AM ^

I think there's something else at play here that's limiting the initial recruiting success. Harbaugh is very much in the mold of Bo, and everyone knows what the team went through when Bo first came in and turned things around.  Anyone think some of these kids dont want to individually put in the superhuman effort to turn program momentum around? Only kids passionately committed to being their absolute best would want to do it...

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distant gerbil…

January 31st, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^

This might have a lot to do with it. Harbaugh is known for working players beyond what other programs do and it takes time to identify and target the types of players that are most receptive to that.

A month isn't a lot of time to find those guys, give it a year and they will have more opportunity to find the warrior types that'll run through a wall for Harbaugh.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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TXmaizeNblue

January 31st, 2015 at 10:30 AM ^

how when a lower ranked recruit commits to another school Michigan fans automatically assume that means the higher ranked recruit is now on board. BIG ASSUMPTION. Texas fans were thinking the same thing about Gentry/Murray. Not so.

Joined: 09/22/2010

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UMICH1606

January 31st, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^

They have been vetting some grad transfer options on the holes they have on D since they have gotten in the full swing of things. They have 1 strong possibility, perhaps 2.

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Sllepy81

January 31st, 2015 at 10:52 AM ^

and wonder if Jim went to hard for big names when he mightve filled the holes with lesser known guys......but then again hoke went that route year one and it didnt pay off.

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TXmaizeNblue

January 31st, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^

You've got to admire and find great hope in the fact we've now got a coach that is basically saying "GAME ON!" He's not backing down from any commit he wants. Even if he strikes out in this very limited sample space of time - it's an impressive effort. I can't wait to see the 2016 class fill out. It seems almost certain that he will haul in a top ten class next year.

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Mitchamaniac

January 31st, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^

I posted this yesterday on an old thread but seems more relevant now here.

These are my crazy predictions regarding the top three. They are mostly based of Twitter, IG etc since those show what the players are expressing themselves.

1. Chris Clark - He goes to UCLA. I do agree that it is 50/50 with him but the kid absolutely loves it there and I think that's what wins him over come NSD.

2. Mike Weber - Stays with OSU. While he may be regretting signing onto OSU, he feels too guilty to leave at the last minute. The kid is stressed out of his mind right now.

3. Iman Marshall - We land him. He wants to be part of the revival here and he loves the staff. People are saying he's going to USC but I really don't see him expressing much about that. Doesn't seem like he's in it with them.

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CaliforniaNobody

January 31st, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

I'd take this. Clark is a baller but he really does seem like an LA kid. Weber for what you said (a bit like if you just told your girlfriend you love her and now you want to break up.) Im not sure on Marshall. I was on /r/CFB the other day and it was strange seeing a thread on Marshall, people were laughing at the thought of Marshall to UM. Makes me want him more.



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Miles9

January 31st, 2015 at 5:05 PM ^

Clark is a "silent" commit..... Harbaugh is the "best" coach I've ever been around.... The army of seasoned coaches will prepare Clark for the next level. My gut feeling on what Clark will ultimately decide, Plus, Clark's family will not have to fly all the way across the country to watch a game.

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