Projecting Out the Remaining Spots of the 2015 Class
We have a nice prior diary that is now a wiki, but due to the table format it is difficult to edit so let's do a post projecting the remaining spots of the class with a bit more detail in terms of serious candidates. Aside from that wiki the MGo Depth Chart helps us project needs, and I did a diary last week on what positions have major needs for 2017 so we can reverse engineer 2015 'croots to fill those holes.
The question of the day is how many spots are truly open - MGo Depth chart says only 6, as long as both Glasgows and Kerridge are given scholarships. I've read comments saying Sam Webb also says this is the #. Of course some "gray" things can be done such as taking 8 commits and then assuming a few guys drop out after seeing the writing on the wall this spring. Grayshirting is another option although more "controversial". So I'll go 6 (floor and most likely) to 8 (ceiling and unlikely) spots.
We'll look at it by position. Please add any intel you may garner from various legit sources and I'll be happy to edit. I am sure some more names will emerge in the coming days.
OFFENSE
TE
- Chris Clark - target #1. NSD decision between UCLA and UM. Gut feel says UM despite recent comments about neck and neck with UCLA. UM offense focuses on TE, UCLA does not. UM coaches have developed NFL TEs. Heart was once with UM.
- Matt Snyder - current NEB commit set to visit this weekend. Followed Riley from Oregon State to Nebraska.
- Jake Pickard - current WIS commit.
- (sorta) Ty Wheatley - seems to project more to DE but some feel at 260 lbs he can still be a TE as he grows in the coming years.
Projecting - Chris Clark
FB
- Reagan Williams - Stanford commit visiting this weekend. With Kerridge and Houma both graduating post 2015 and Shallman the only type on roster to fill this roll this position is a need. Looks like he will be visiting for 3 days so serious interest. Can play close to home as he is from Ohio. 50/50 chance perhaps.
Projecting - Reagan Williams. Harbaugh magic works this weekend.
RB
- Mike Weber - former UM commit who could see the competition crowding at OSU. Yes UM will probably get a good back in 2016 as well to provide competition but the entire roster not named Ty Isaac clears out at RB post 2016. Clearer path to playing time here, close to home, etc.
-
[edit] John Kelly (also a potential DB) - Harbaugh is saying very nice things about him and crystall ballz trending our way but UM was late to this game.
MSU andTN seem to be the major competition. Just committed to TN, UM will continue to pursue to NSD.
Projecting - Mike Weber or maybe whichever commits first of the 2 due to limited spots
QB
-
[edit] Zach Gentry - NM product committed to Texas for a long time has
some foggy smokea raging inferno around him. - McClane Carter - wasn't much interest in Carter nationally until Jim sniffed around which brought along some other interests. Not sure if this is a scholarship type of guy or someone who you bring in for a year with a chance to earn a scholarship when more open up in year 2.
Projecting - tough one to figure. Not sure if you give Carter a scholarship with a tiny class like this. Maybe he comes with the promise of a 2016 scholarship. Gentry is a long time UT commit, seems unlikely to flip in closing weeks.
WR
- Ryan Davis - super fun HS QB who might not have top flight speed but ridiculous change of direction and vision. Will know better in the coming days if there is anything real here. Would love this guy for punt returns and as a slot WR.
- [Edit] Austin Aaron - Cal commit, some noise early in Harbaugh chase with him ; not hearing much lately.
Projecting - none.
OL
- Nolan Ulizio - lightly ranked OL out of OH, committed to UConn getting some love from Michigan, Kentucky. On paper seems like a no brainer to UM. But if higher rated prospects at other positions are in play he might be told there is no room in the closing days of the signing period. If this class was 16+ spots he'd probably be a close to sure yes.
Projecting - none only due to other commits taking his spot. If those fall thru he seems likely.
DEFENSE
DB
- Damon Arnette - SC commit getting the most attention of a host of CB prospects. Was in town this past weekend and was visited by Harbaugh, Durkin, and Mattison at home Wednesday. His HS is a NFL factory so is a key bridge to get into that school.
- Chris Williamson - late riser on recruiting boards out of GA getting interest from UF, UM, NC, Cal and GA. Was at NC last weekend, will be at UM this weekend, then UF the following weekend.
- Will Lockett - UCLA commit who will be in town this weekend
- Jarius Adams - Rutgers commit
- Iman Marshall - obviously a crown jewel but some believe to be a silent commit to USC which of course they deny. Dad did not join him on trip. Sounds like UM did a great job hosting but most likely too little too late and a 2nd/3rd place finish for his services.
Projecting - serious chance for 2 CBs even if we only have 2 slots. Guessing Arnette is 1. Hopefully Williamson is impressed this weekend but still has a visit to UF next weekend.
DE
- Reuben Jones - NEB commit also getting the full court press, will be visiting this weekend. Seems very unlikely he remains at NEB; it looks like a Louisville (where he was last weekend) vs UM battle with MSU trying to poke their nose in there.
- Jalen Bates - ASU commit but not much noise here after some initial excitement. No crystal ballz to UM.
- KLS - sort of been a tease from afar thru the Hoke era, but a UCLA commit and it seems solid.
- Ty Wheatley (more likely here than TE) - dude could play a great game of poker.
Projecting - Reuben Jones if this weekend goes well but Louisville seems very much into it. As with Arnette, Mattison Durkin and Harbaugh all visited in home Wednesday. Wheatley is a tough one - this might be a case of a guy wanting to strike out on his own away from his dad. I have zero inside info but for some reason this feels like a Treadwell McDowell situation. If dad was not coaching I don't think UM would have any chance.
LB
- Roquan Smith - highly ranked GA LB is a major target for UM, who has a chance due to Durkin. Most still think he is headed to GA but this past weekend seemd to do UM a lot of good. The longer his recruiting process goes the better for UM's chances.
Projecting - none.
OFF THE BOARD / UNLIKELY
- Marcus Lewis CB - this seemed like a sure commit post summer BBQ. But his final 3 is Kentucky, Miami (YTM), and WSU (?!).
- Nate Dalton CB - visited in home and at school by Harbaugh Tuesday but more interested in Liberty. Or Bret B at Arkansas.
- Arrington Farrar S - a Stanford decommit who sounded like a natural fit but the last 5 crystal ballz have him headed to ND.
- Drew Lock QB - Missouri commit looks like a no.
- Joe Burrow QB - OSU commit apparently told Jim no.
- Cordell Broadus WR - his dad wants him to go to USC, and other than some nice words before Harbaugh was hired about Harbaugh there doesn't seem to be much connection there.
-
Auden Tate WR - committed to FSU last summer,
not much smoke anymore. [edit: Harbaugh apparently visited 1/22] - David Moorman OL - exiled WIS commit seems to want to hear from UM; not sure if there is any smoke there.
-
[edit][edit again] Joshua McMillon - Alabama commit out of TN who was once sort of high on Michigan during the Hoke period
is set to visit. He cancelled his visit.
My pulled out of rear end class then falls like this
- TE Chris Clark OR non Clark TE
- RB Mike Weber OR RB/ATH John Kelly
- FB Reagan Williams
- CB Damon Arnette
- DE Reuben Jones
- A second CB - too foggy to tell but not Marshall*
-
(if room)
RB Mike Weber/ATH John Kelly- edit: Zach Gentry (?) - (if room) OL Nolan Ulizio
*you probably hold this spot open until the moment LB Roquan Smith says I am going to Georgia.
I am not a subscriber to recruiting services so maybe some are saying DE/TE Ty Wheatley is a sure thing or close to it. So I'd be wrong on that end if true. Yesterday's offer to Jake Pickard - who is also a DE/TE combo makes me wonder.
January 22nd, 2015 at 8:31 AM ^
Why are you so certain that Iman Marshall will not come?
January 22nd, 2015 at 8:37 AM ^
I'm not certain of anything until Feb 4th. These are just my projections.
As others have said he is at a pipeline school to USC, lives in the area, his dad is very involved in his recruiting and did not join, he left a day early as opposed to reports he was staying til Wednesday etc. None of the crystal balls changed to UM which usually happens at least for a few people immediately after an official visit. So it's just probability.
Maybe he has a change of heart and comes to UM - none of us know.
January 22nd, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^
visit Monday which will tell a lot. Supposedly his dad realizes his style of play is physical and more suited for the B1G. I still think the chances are slim but I'm not counting him out.
January 22nd, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
Cool, didn't know that Harbaugh was headed out to see him in home. Well if we get a flurry of crystall ballz changing Monday we might have some progress there. Not that they are the end all be all but again some contrarian usually likes to be an outlier and flip their choice - no one did after this visit.
January 22nd, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
anything happening unless Harbaugh talked to dad. The fact that he's agreed to meet is big. His dad is all about getting him to the NFL and Harbaugh more than anyone probably knows what it takes to not just get there but to be successful. I think it will be a very interesting meeting.
Jim Harbaugh's in-home visit with 5* Iman Marshall will be next Monday, and it will be important (FREE): http://t.co/WTdMjd5TrG
— Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) January 22, 2015
January 22nd, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
January 22nd, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^
I know his ranking isn't very high, but I really like the kid's feet. Prevent him from leaning so much and I think you got yourself a really good interior OL in the coming years. Plus I think Michigan needs another OL in this class.
January 22nd, 2015 at 8:45 AM ^
Do you see him as an eventual interior lineman at this level? The 2017 depth chart could use another guard. I know it is "good" this class is so small due to the coachiing change but a class of 15 would have been better than 12 just to space out kids better across classes.
I'd like another S in this class, an OG and 2 CBs (and 2 DEs). But no room.
January 22nd, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^
Yes, I see him as an OG
January 22nd, 2015 at 3:32 PM ^
I'm pretty sure the coaching staff knows several players that won't be returning next fall before. They will likely be announed before spring practice. So I'd say we have 15 slots will a chance of that going higher.
January 22nd, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^
January 22nd, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
to Tennessee. He didn't state why. I have a feeling it's because of Weber but that's only my guess.
January 22nd, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^
UM basically ignored Kelly while MSU and TN were on him all along. (and MN) While it is a different staff those were relationships that UM did not build.
Looks like 4 people went TN yesterday - the equivalent of Lorenz for TN, Lorenz, Wiltfong, and some dude I never heard of.
I guess the bullish take is "Mike Weber is so flipping" and "we cooled on Kelly". Bearish take is that is incremental negative on 1 target.
January 22nd, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
It's pretty crazy that this class is as small as it is, especially in a coaching transition year. My guess list is pretty similar to yours. FWIW, Lorenz just predicted John Kelly to Tennessee. We're getting a lot of Reuben Jones, Nolan Ulizio, and Jake Pickard predictions right now.
My guesses, from my most confident guess to my least confident guess:
- QB Zach Gentry
- OL Nolan Ulizio (with Cole playing as a true freshman, we're essentially looking at only JBB, Newsome, and Runyan across two classes, which is scary)
- DE Reuben Jones
- TE Jake Pickard
- FB Reagan Williams
- CB Will Lockett
- CB Damon Arnette
- RB Mike Weber
Edit: Gentry'd.
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
I feel like we need at least one LB in this class. I find it very interesting that we are only recruiting Smith right now for LB...
January 22nd, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
We're less than two weeks away from National Signing Day. Several of the UM targets will not declare their intentions until that day. When should we become a little nervous about filling out the class if we don't see a few of the open spots taken soon?
January 22nd, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^
While anything can happen I can't imagine any scenario where UM does not fill 6 spots in a month of work. This is a tiny class.
I think there will be a lot more clarity come Monday morning because a lot of potential flips will be on campus. And I think there is a CB derby. Sort of reminds me of Beilein with the PG class of 2013 where he basically offered the spot to 3 guys and whichever commited first got the job.
January 22nd, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
I know I'm slightly biased but why would not want to come get a great education and play for a guy who has consistently put guys in NFL during his Stanford tenure. Seems like a win-win.
January 22nd, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
Thanks for the post alum96, good review of the class.
What's going on with Austin Aaron, I heard he considered flipping from Cal?
If I had to guess right now I'd say we get Clark, Weber, Kelly, Arnette, Gentry, Wheatley, Ulizio and Pickard. Carter seems like a walk-on more than an actual guy. I think Gentry is seriously looking around.
January 22nd, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
Thanks, I forgot about him. Will add him to list. Haven't heard too much after the initial talk - would assume if he is serious he will be headed to AA next week or the week after.
re: Carter - I just have hesitancy with out of state "walk ons" - this is a very very expensive school to go to from out of state, so unless you are really in some world where you think Jim will make you into an NFL player - it probably makes more sense to walk on at a school in your own state, or a much cheaper one than UM is for out of states. If his family is very well off or struggling (need based financial aid) that would alleviate that concern to a degree but for a solidly middle class family paying $50K+ a year or whatever it is now is $200K over 4 yrs.
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
Very good point, that makes sense. If we do wind up with Gentry I think fair to say Carter probably won't happen.
January 22nd, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
#Horns commit Zach Gentry will visit #Michigan this weekend; I have the #Wolverines on my #CrystalBall (FREE): http://t.co/S3pRBSioay
— Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) January 22, 2015
January 22nd, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
We've got a ballz flipper. It's alive!
January 22nd, 2015 at 11:20 AM ^
alum96, you are our greatest offseason diarist. i salute you, sir.
January 22nd, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
How much longer does Brian have you on retainer?
January 22nd, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
Haha. Brian will never forgive my incursion as the anti Mullen flag bearer. Thankfully it's moot because HARBAAAAUUUGGGHHHH.
p.s It looks like Kelly is going to announce today to Vols. But then their OC just quit 15 minutes ago. Strange. Sounds ilke Harbaugh won't give up until NSD from what someone else wrote.
Getting Gentry would be awesome I need to figure out whatare some good Texas blogs to see what they are saying - that is a long time commit.
January 22nd, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^
If you go by Gentry's own Twitter account, he does not list himself as a Texas commit now. Mike Farrell of Rivals is speculating pretty hard that things look like they're lining up for Gentry to come to Michigan.
January 22nd, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
Trying to figure out what background photo to use for "When (crystal) ballz swing in our way, I get happy" meme.
January 22nd, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
I did some Googling around and found nothing relevant. However, I did find this epic quote from the SBN Texas blog: "Michigan is arguably the most recognized college football program after Texas."
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Is Texas even in the top-5 most recognized college football programs right now? ND, Ohio State, Bama, Florida, USC, Michigan, ...
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
and you can debate the order. I would say: Michigan, OSU, bama, LSU, FSU, Texas, Oklahoma & USC. After that there's a lotta schools in the next group IMO.
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
Forgot ND!!!
January 22nd, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^
Take out LSU/FSU unless by tradition you mean "tradition over the last 20-30 years." Top 7 definitely are M, OSU, Bama, Texas, OU, USC and ND in some order. After that it's tough. UT maybe, or PSU (last 50ish years)? Almost best to just leave it at a top 7...
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:16 PM ^
obviously its all geography. ask anyone living in midlands, southwest, etc and of course within the great state of texas and theyll all scoff at anyone not answering texas
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
http://texas.247sports.com/Board/21/Contents/Zach-Gentry-Visiting-Michi…
(only useful if you are a 247 subscriber - boo)
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
The insiders seem to have a good feeling about Gentry. That'd be a great guy to start with for Harbaugh recruiting.
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
Here is a Texas blog - their SB Nation one
http://www.burntorangenation.com/recruiting/2015/1/22/7871275/zach-gent…
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
Here is a good roundup by Wilfong of all the flips UM is after - just posted. He is somehow at 17 openings in this class which makes little sense.
http://247sports.com/Article/Michigan-Looks-To-Flip-Several-Committed-E…
January 22nd, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
I think there is a really good chance of Michigan snagging Roquan Smith. He was really high on Durkin initially, and he really seems to have been warming to the program as a whole.
And it would be so fantastic to pull a high quality defender out of GA, that there may be undue optimism and such on my part. But I've never not been a Kool-Aid drinker so.... glug glug.
January 22nd, 2015 at 2:26 PM ^
Wheatley went to visit Wheatley today. Brought some friends..
http://michigan.247sports.com/Board/59424/Contents/Wheatley-Visits-Whea…
January 22nd, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^
January 22nd, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^
January 22nd, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
Joshua McMillon is coming this weekend, according to Sam Webb. So it does look like we want to bring in a LB. He hinted at another 4-star visitor this weekend.
January 22nd, 2015 at 5:16 PM ^
Edited to reflect, thanks
January 22nd, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^
Harbaugh apparently visiting with FSU commit Auden Tate today. Gosh this guy hates recruiting.
Comparing wingspans "@WhartonCCC: Jim Harbaugh in Wharton's house today visiting guess who?
January 22nd, 2015 at 6:05 PM ^
Harbaugh has visited Tate a few times. There hasn't been much out there about his visits though. The kid must like Michigan if he visited not knowing who the coach would be.
January 22nd, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^
Another fine job Alum - Thanks.
I think Gentry is coming. QB to QB - Andrew Luck's Coach - BAM.
If Clark is coming at TE why are we after so many TE's?
I think we will have one big suprise recruit that JH jackhammers away from someone. Iman Marshall? Who knows, but like the bottom of a cracker jack box we will get a prize.
Buckle up
January 22nd, 2015 at 7:49 PM ^
I could see Harbaugh going for two TEs in this class. There's five on the roster and two are seniors. That doesn't seem like enough for a Harbaugh offense.
January 23rd, 2015 at 4:16 PM ^
I just don't see why Harbaugh's not taking a run at that Wisconsin decommit Sam Madden. Is it academics or just that Michigan's more in need of an OG type as opposed to OT?
EDIT: Downvote for asking an honest question is what I love about this place!
January 23rd, 2015 at 12:15 AM ^
Ridiculous to say Ulizio won't have a spot. I suspect he will be the first commit.
January 23rd, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
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