Moving Forward

Submitted by Lucky Socks on
I totally get the frustration after Saturday's game. But being an optimist, I want to try to spin the conversation towards the future. What will is take to nullify what we saw against ND?

Let's say I started the season with a 5/10 satisfaction. App State was nice, but did nothing to move the needle. ND moved me back to 2/10.

Beat Miami (OH)...it better happen.
Beat Utah and Minnesota - I'd be at 3/10. Move it up to 4/10 if we look really good, and the outcomes are clear by the 3rd quarter.
Win @Rutgers - add another point. They could be a challenge, and a road night game against a conference opponent would be a step in right direction considering our recent history. So I'm hypothetically at 5/10.
If we can rattle off these wins, then the Penn State game is the next huge benchmark. If we can win that without looking like we were trying to lose it, I might forgive the ND fiasco because our season overall would be at or above my preseason standards.

I'll worry about the second half of the season when we get there. But the spoiler is that we probably need to beat one of our rivals. My realistic hope for this season was 9-3. Despite the change in circumstances (ND suspensions, our ineptitude) that's still intact. But if we're going to lose 2 more games, we better lose competitively. If we win, it should look like we're the better team - except MSU and OSU. I'll take any type win on those dates.

So, how much will it take for our coaches to build back back to your pre-season baseline? Smooth sailing into Penn State does it for me, and a role reversal under our lights would move me into actually happy territory.

Sauce Castillo

September 9th, 2014 at 11:35 AM ^

Is this what it's come to? Satisfied with losing competitively to MSU and OSU? This isn't pee wee football.  You don't get the ole pat on the back for giving it your all.  College football is a must win culture and should be at Michigan.  If we win 1 of those 2 games that makes Hoke 3-6 in the last 3 yrs against ND, MSU, and OSU.  Is that acceptable?  If your answer is no then in my eyes this staff needs to win both games to stay.  

snowcrash

September 9th, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^

Suppose the rest of the season goes like this:

NTM W 41-6

Utah W 29-13

Minnesota W 31-7

Rutgers W 38-20

Penn State W 28-17

Sparty L 20-21

Indiana W 52-28

NW W 34-3

Maryland W 37-17

OSU (who is 9-2, losing only to VT and Sparty) L 17-18

Bowl: South Carolina W 34-17

You would fire Hoke after that? (Not that I'm predicting that for the rest of the season.)

 

Voltron is Handsome

September 9th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^

Wins at MSU and OSU are a must. I know that will be tough, but it has to be done, OSU especially because they don't look that good anyway.

gwkrlghl

September 9th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^

I do think that's really the only way how Hoke will flip the perception of this season from disappointing to good. 9-10 wins with wins over those two would have everyone pumped for next year, 9-10 wins with a split is probably enough to keep Hoke

UMMAN83

September 9th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^

Seems to me even Michigan in the heyday was upset by other teams. 

Its up to this coaching staff to figure out how to upset another team.  When is the last time that has even happened?

sadeto

September 9th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^

The team we saw play in South Bend Saturday night, loses to Utah. Hopefully that team does not show up. Utah can score points. They're not as good as ND but they'll win a shootout with us. 

991GT3

September 9th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^

We are a mediocre team in a mediocre conference. WE are no longer relevant in the national football picture. A once proud program to be feared by opponents is nothing but a shadow of its former self. What the ND game did was to confirm what nationally people were already saying; "Michigan football can no longer be considered a top 25 program."

Finally, beating much weaker opponents to qualify for some out of the way bowl game is not my idea of a team to be proud of. Better they stay home.

nmwolverine

September 9th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^

The team is not yet good, and we hope it will get better over time this year.  And if there is improvement, Hoke does not have to win a certain number of games.  I will be curious to see how we play the last game in November, but it being an away game, I am not expecting much, and I don't think Hoke's future depends on it.  Can you imagine if Beilien had been fired for early year struggles, or losing to a #14 seed, or losing to Penn State after being ranked #1?

LSAClassOf2000

September 9th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^

I don't know that I measure it based on "what would staisfy me" as much as I do on "what is an achieveable target", possibly because that's simply how what people like me who get paid to invent metrics think. That being said, as disappointed as I am about Saturday's result, I still think that this schedule still permits a reasonable shot at 9-3 for the moment. Like some others, I see the rivalry games remaining as the most difficult hills to conquer (not insurmountable, but the most difficult), but the rest of the games are definitely winnable games for us. 

xxxxNateDaGreat

September 9th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^

I expected Michigan would go 9-3 or 10-2 and I also expected that Michigan would lose 2 of the three games against major rivals (ND, OSU, MSU). As of today, those are still possibilities. We need to accept that ND may be better than advertised and Ohio State may be worse, especially without Miller. If the team can still achieve my expected goal of 9-10 wins, then I personally don't give a shit if Michigan lost to ND by 50, cause the big picture is what is most important. If Michigan gets double digit wins, nobody is going to say that the entire season was a complete waste because Michigan was blanked by Notre Dame.

kylekisling

September 9th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

All I would like to see is our corner backs learn how to defend the outside receiver... If you're playing man coverage on 3rd down, how is it not instinctual/preached for the corner to line up just slightly inside of the receiver to prevent the easy slant?... Idk... The fact that our corners don't even have that sort of awareness proves that our coaches are literally teaching them nothing of significant importance at practice.

Tater

September 9th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^

I see these games as talent level referendum games: Utah, Minny, PSU, MSU, Maryland and OSU.  It looks like this will be a year where the team doesn't win unless they can out-talent the other team.  On the low end, those games could all be losses.  On the high end, I am still naive enough to think it's possible to run the table.  We'll find out soon enough.

Zoltanrules

September 9th, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^

and it's time to clean house. I don't wish this and support the players but enough is enough in year 4 of the Hoke era. At this point, it's hard to predict where this team will go - 9 and 3 wouldn't surprise me, nor would 6 and 6.

BlueHills

September 9th, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^

In my frustration with how the game went on Saturday, I hadn't thought much about the fact that the offense is still in the early stages of acclimating to a new system.

Let's see how the year plays out.

9-3 is possible, 8-4 likely, 7-5 ends Hoke's career here.

 

HeliosEusebio

September 9th, 2014 at 1:36 PM ^

Was 8-4. I figured that's the minimum wins needed for Hoke to keep his job.

As bad as we played on Saturday, I am willing to believe that game was just an abberation. Partly because of how good Notre Dame could very well be, as well as how bad the rest of the Big Ten is.

I had regular discussions about the season with a co-worker of mine who rivals my enthusiasm for Michigan with his own enthusiasm for little brother, and we both agreed that a 9-3 or even 10-2 season was likely. I still hold to that prediction, again based on the sorry state of the Big Ten.

I see us winning out our home games, but I won't discount the possibility of a trap game (possibly Utah). Our away games are against Rutgers, State, Northwestern and Ohio. Both Northwestern and Rutgers are easy wins. We won't win at East Lansing barring a miracle, and based on past results against Urban Myer and where Ohio is right now, I think we have a decent chance to win in Columbus.

Of course if what happened in South Bend is truly a harbinger of what's to come, then all this goes out the window and we have a new coach (not named Harbaugh) in Ann Arbor next year. But again I'm willing to believe that it was an abberation. 

The next two weeks will be crucial. If we go into conference play 3-1, then we're probably gonna be okay. But if we're 2-2 (or, God forbid, worse) then it's time to sound the alarm.

BlueKoj

September 9th, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^

They're too young not to be inconsistent. Golson and the rest played about as well as they can, and won't do that every game. ND will lose at least 3 games and maybe more. Looking back, I think we'll see that UM got their best game...ND at their best is very good, but not elite, and they won't play like that every big game. I think ND is a borderline top-20 team at the end of the year.

UM has a lot of work to do to attain that distinction.

MWolverine7

September 9th, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^

MSU was in worse shape than UM when Dantonio took over. By year 4 Dantonio was competing for Big 10 championships in a stronger Big10. I remember a lot of people pointing this out to the Hoke critics saying look it took Dantonio 4 years to build his program and to give Hoke time. In my mind Hoke needs to beat MSU on the road or at least be in the game until the end with a win @ OSU. Anything less than that he should be fired...

M-Dog

September 9th, 2014 at 3:51 PM ^

We get a bye week before State, and a bye week before Maryland then Ohio State.  That is a huge help.

I want Hoke to succeed, mostly because the chaos of anoher coaching search will put us back yet another five years.

A win at MSU or at OSU will help Hoke have a littile breathing room.

 

Brick in The Wave

September 9th, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^

The issue I see is that different stakeholders want different things.  We all want to see improvment but some want improvement but don't need the wins others want to see wins but don't need the improvement.  What if we say go 9-3 but look like crap at MSU and OSU?  What if we go 8-4 but look good at MSU and OSU but still lose?  What if we go 6-6 but the losses are all in the final seconds? 

I hate to think of coaching search right now, research shows it generally doesn't work out any better unless you hire a homerun which is not readily available right now. Usually a new coach will appear better because of reversion to the mean not because they actually are.

For me I think for Hoke to truly be safe he can afford to lose one more game.  Be definition then he would beat MSU or OSU.  That is really the only way I will feel comfortable moving forward.

I dumped the Dope

September 9th, 2014 at 4:15 PM ^

Has been the standard for over 130 years if you review the math.  So one game off that pace is reason to trash the entire football program and invoke the possibility of a 3-win season(s).  I don't support that.

I get that its the 21st century and we want More, Now.  We want to be a 10-win juggernaut year after year after year.

The days of the Big 2 and the Little 8 are over, fellow fans.  Football is harder than it seems when you consider the modern era of strength training and the way the media has blown up sports coverage.

I also would point to other Traditionally Dominant programs have stuggled to keep up that level.  Nebraska and Texas come to mind right off.  Alabama about 10-12 years ago was a complete nobody after Stallings left.  Some Georgia fans I know are foaming at the mouth for Mark Richt to be fired despite what I think is a damn good record in that conference.  In my youth the Huskies of Washington were a feared force.  Michigan State is suddenly one of the top teams in the B1G.  Urban Meyer's offense is currently running for its life.  What I derive from this evidence is that there's a slow rolling sine wave of adversity that affects every program.  A deeper affect is to also be tied to certain coaching staffs who have repeated success and so it seems like its better to speed that process and roll the dice with the idea it could come up Saban.  But the reality is the other 999 rolls are not Saban.

Last season was tough and its hard to maintain patience I agree, but lets see what Nussmeier can do.  When the rhythm was going I personally think it was better than last year.  I think we will have an answer in 6 years of Hoke coaching which way is right for the future.  So...wait for it.......wait for it... 8-)

 

CoachBP6

September 9th, 2014 at 5:33 PM ^

For me it's not about going 12-0 or 10-2 every season.  Michigan has arguably the richest tradition in all of college football.  The product on the field should reflect the history, and tradition that this great program has given us.  At present, Michigan is not that team, and haven't been for some time.  

I'm at such a weird spot with Michigan right now.  Never in my life have I ever watched a game void of emotion. That Notre Dame game gave me an overwhelming sense of acceptance.  For the first time in my 20+ years as a Michigan fan I have finally accepted that this is what Michigan football has become.  I am not okay with it, I can't stand it to be honest.  Acceptance is a bitch.  

The toughest part about acceptance, for me, is the overwhelming advantage Michigan has with its academics, prestige,  facilities, and its finances.  Michigan should be able to put together an outfit much better than anything we've seen in recent times.  I don't know what the main issue is, but something has to give, so that we can have our program back.    

You Only Live Twice

September 9th, 2014 at 7:23 PM ^

Brady Hoke gets 5 years before any of us can have this conversation.  Period.  That's what is best for our program.  I wish people would stop posting crap about coaching "searches" and calling radio talk shows saying how they don't want anyone to get fired BUT.... just stop.

I have not seen one comment yet where anyone has solutions.  Lots of generalities, sure.  I can generalize as well as anybody.  Win more games.  Have less turnovers.  Block more.  I disagree with your call there, Coach.  Bad call.  Take out X and put in Y.   Players are not passionate about winning.  Coaches are not passionate about winning.  Does that mean anything?  How would you improve the blocking? How would you make the players more passionate?  Discussion of all this stuff is fine, analysis is great.  Calling for firings is not the logical progression.

At the end of year 5, the assessment can be made.  Until then, support our team and show the world we are not fair weather, toxic assholes.  Show the world we support our team and let the coaches do their job.    I support our program - and always will, barring some Penn State type of atrocity.  Then all bets are off.