JT Barrett vs. Dwayne Haskins (aka let's not panic about Don Brown (if he stays))

Submitted by ScooterTooter on December 12th, 2018 at 12:09 PM

One thing that has been mentioned on a couple podcasts and been discussed on the board is the stark contrast in the defense's performance between the JT Barrett offense and the Dwayne Haskins offense.  Its actually both alarming and a relief given that Haskins is likely gone.

(Some of these numbers might be slightly off as I was doing this mainly by hand)

In roughly 1.6 games against Don Brown's defense (only regulation, OT is too much like counting penalty kicks as goals in soccer), here are the numbers of JT Barrett and the OSU offense:

Team: 415 yards, 24 points, 6-25 on third down

JT Barrett: 18-40 154 yds 1 int (passing) 45 - 192 2 TDs (rushing) 

Honestly, its hard to imagine doing much better than that against Ohio State. This also comes with an extremely pro-Ohio State whistle (OSU was booted off the field on their last drive that got them to 280 yards in regulation, but the refs decided to call PI, similarly, they received some pretty shaky calls in the first half of the 2017 game that Joel Klatt mentioned during the broadcast) and good fortune (having to drive 6 yards for their only TD in regulation in 2016, Josh Metellus dropping an INT that hits him directly in the hands in 2017). 

Another way of looking at it: Barrett led only 5 drives out of 19 relevant drives that were over 50 yards. He led only one TD drive that wasn't a gift (two gifts: Speight's interception in 2016 and the Hudson penalty/Metellus drop in 2017), a 53 yard drive in 2017.

Its truly maddening that Michigan was not able to win either of these games. I suspect the reason for losing the 2017 game boils down to the following (Haskins and team numbers, 1.4 games):

Team: 782 yards, 72 points, 10-18 on third down

Haskins: 26-38 490 yards 6 TDs (passing) 10-58 yards (rushing)

9 out of 14 of Haskins drives were for over 50 yards. 13 out of 16 relevant drives (!) led to the opportunity of points (including missed field goals), even if some were short fields in 2018. 

Haskins also didn't benefit from any kind of referee shakiness. If anything, in the 2018 game edged Michigan's way.

Long story short: Even when they are unlucky (losing their starting QB), Ohio State is lucky against Michigan. I'm of the belief Haskins' throwing ability both sealed the 2017 game and (of course) won the 2018 game. 

However, with Haskins likely to turn pro and Martell looking more like Barrett than Haskins...I think we should see a reversion to the 2016/first half of 2017 performance at least schematically from the defense next year. 

MGoBoard

arrowhead

December 12th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^

I enjoy Brown's defense but he has yet to demonstrate the ability to adjust his style. Indiana and OSU torched Brown with crossing and wheel routs. You know it was coming after the Indiana game yet there was no adjustment for OSU. That sucks. His defenses have major trouble holding a lead against PSU (when they had a running back) and of course OSU (you can't image the shit I continually take out here). Anyway I hope he stays but works with JH to create some interesting zone defenses because the key to Brown is DL rushing. 

 

Oh, and JH should encourage his players to keep their mouths shut particularly before a big game.

Joined: 04/21/2017

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bronxblue

December 12th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^

Indiana had 195 yards passing at 5.5 ypa.  Yes, they got a couple of crossing routes to work; they also had long stretches of nothing.  I know it's popular to say that IU was some harbinger of doom against OSU, but those same people were saying the same things about Wisconsin dominating Michigan on the ground or PSU being able to torch them in the air, neither of which panned out to nearly the degree.

What lead did they lose against PSU?  They never led in 2017 and the other 2 games they won by a combined score of 91-17.  

OSU yes, though had Michigan had a better QB last season that game maybe is more interesting and UM could have even pulled it out.  

Michigan's defense was terrible this past game, but even when they went to zone it didn't seem to help.  Obviously the defense needs to be better, but if OSU can have pretty bad games offensively against Iowa and Purdue the past couple of years, it's equally possible that Michigan had an exceedingly bad outing against OSU without it being an indictment of the staff and schemes writ large.

Joined: 11/22/2008

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Realus

December 12th, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^

Thanks for a dose of rationality.  I don't see how we would want to lose Harbaugh or Brown.  Period.  An equivalent replacement for either one will be very hard to find.

That being said, it would be great if the following happened:

1) Harbaugh assumes there will be times where the offense will have to score 50 points and puts in explosive plays that at least allow for the possibility

2) Brown starts to go more multiple and modifies his defense throughout the year so that when we play Ohio State, the defense is optimized to play against them.

Unfortunately I don't see that happening, but given the historical beatdown, at least it's a possibility.

Joined: 01/02/2010

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MGoStrength

December 12th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^

I've always said as far as this games goes, despite his record against UM, Barrett was as good as we should expect.  He was not particularly dangerous nor prolific.  He did not scare me or our defense and we handled him quite well.  Haskins I was also concerned he might throw the ball around based on what I saw in the 4th quarter in '17.  If he goes pro that's good for us.  It's unlikely they get that level of production from anyone else.  However, I also think Day's offense will lean more towards that scheme than Meyer's did.

Joined: 07/29/2010

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BoFlex

December 12th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^

You are also assuming that the new HC Ryan Day will start Martell over a more polished passer.

Ohio State currently has a former 4-star pro-style QB (Matthew Baldwin) on the roster that took a medical redshirt this year. I would be surprise to see the offense that was on the field this year be the new standard at OSU.

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buckeye419er

December 12th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^

You are also assuming that the new HC Ryan Day will start Martell over a more polished passer.

Ohio State currently has a former 4-star pro-style QB (Matthew Baldwin) on the roster that took a medical redshirt this year. I would be surprise to see the offense that was on the field this year be the new standard at OSU.

 

This further confirms my previous post 

Joined: 10/25/2017

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waliwiz1

December 12th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^

Good enough but you have to remember that 4* Baldwin was recruited by Day and that means he is/was his first QB. Now if Haskins leaves then, at the very least there probably will be a true competition for the starting job. I would be very surprised if Baldwin doesn't have the mindset that he is working for he starting QB spot, as he should well be. At the same time the Maize and Blue DL only returns 3 from the two deep(depending on who leaves). That's a lot of spots to fill. Either way Brown will have a lot of recruiting, developing, and fine tuning or it'll be another butt thumping.

All of which won't matter if Haskins stays because that boy is the real thing as the last two years have shown. Ohio State will have plenty of WR speed again next year  as we saw they ran the DB's into the ground

Joined: 11/23/2016

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Wolverine0007

December 12th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^

Do you know the common denominator we had in our bad performance with regards to Dwayne Haskins?

 

Brandon Watson.

 

In both 2017 and 2018, we arguable lost the Game bc Dwayne Haskins was able to explot Brandon Watson. In 2017, when we had OSU at 3rd and 13, Haskins threw a great pass to a WR who was covered by...Brandon Watson.

 

In 2018, when Haskins was tearing up our secondary for 4+ touchdowns, I didn't even need to look at the tv to know that he was targeting Brandon Watson, arguably the weakest link in our secondary. 

So while I'll be glad when Haskins is gone (hopefully he leaves after this year), i'm actually really happy that Brandon Watson will no longer be the weak link in our secondary. 

Joined: 12/31/2016

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Durham Blue

December 12th, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^

Haskins was on his game from their first snap.  OSU's OL and defense played nothing like their previous 11 games.  In that stadium and that atmosphere, I think OSU would've soundly beaten any team in the country that day, including Alabama.

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