Previewing OSU via the Nebraska game
I rewatched the first half of Nebraska / OSU game using my untrained scouting eye and had a few thoughts that I thought worth sharing:
Nebraska Offense vs. OSU defense
- Nebraska had a lot of success with zone read. Martinez and the Neb RBs had a number of nice runs on good decisions by Martinez.
- Nebraska had two good chunk plays on roll out right, throw back to the left to wide open receivers
- OSU's defense did not look fast laterally. Nebraska runners were able to get the edge a handful of times
- OSU cornerbacks missed multiple tackles near the LOS on the wide-outs in space
- OSU defensive line was called for offsides 3 times (2 accepted) in the first half
OSU Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
- Nearly all OSU running plays had the look of a zone read (not sure that they were), but Haskins handed off every time
- Nebraska cornerbacks gave OSU wide-outs large cushions. They seemed to be playing bend, don't break from the start of the game
Potentially lost in the box score - It was an odd collection of drives in the first half
- OSU scored a safety on a blocked punt deep in Nebraska territory
- OSU's first drive started on the Nebraska 31 after a failed onsides kick plus penalty on Neb. OSU proceeded to gain 9 yards and go for it on fourth down, only to be stopped. They probably left 3 points on the field
- OSU's second touchdown was on a drive that was sustained by a phantom defensive PI call on Nebraska
- Nebraska's Martinez made a bone-headed backwards pass/lateral deep in OSU territory that OSU recovered. Nebraska left at least 3 points on the field
- OSU's leading tackler, Jordan Fuller, was ejected for targeting early in the 2nd quarter
- OSU fumbled at the Nebraska 26. OSU probably left at least 3 points on the field
- OSU fumbled again deep in their own territory which led to a Nebraska TD right before the half
When Michigan plays OSU
- Our developing zone/read capabilities look like they should have an opportunity for success
- Our corners will be in the pockets of the OSU wide-outs. Haskins should not be throwing to wide open receivers like he was against Neb
- I know Haskins hasn't run much all season, but I get nervous that OSU will breakout some true zone reads to take advantage of our DEs crashing hard based on Haskins lack of running to date
- DPJ, Gentry, Evans (as receiver) all seem to have good match-ups on the outside with a real opportunity to extend plays by breaking tackles
November 6th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
my real worry: Mork devises a game plan that somehow, by mimicking key parts of our offense and defense, readies OSU for the Umich game. MORK BURN IN HELL YOU DEVIL COACH
November 6th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
No way - beating a highly ranked OSU team in front of the home crowd is job security and great for recruiting. MSU is not going to purposively lose this game just to make it more difficult for Michigan to reach the title game. Hate is a powerful emotion, but not that powerful.
November 6th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
He's not talking about MSU trying to lose the game. Poster is saying that MSU would help OSU prep for M. At least thats how I read it.
which, yes. WTF. Want M to play OSU like this weekend. Don't give OSU time to gel.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Let's say, for a moment, that Urbane hasn't checked out, that he's doing everything he can with what he has. (Personally, I don't that for a minute, anyway...) He has a limited team to work with. He chose Haskins in the Spring and decided to dance with him all season because of his arm. I don't think he saw the disgrace of a running game coming, but he see's it now.
He made some changes to run power to free up the backs against UN, and it worked. He'll try that again this weekend - it won't work. MSU is too good defensively to be beaten by power alone, with some fake ZR's that Haskins sucks at. He'll have something else dialed up, but is going to have to rely on the short passing game. Which will probably work pretty well against Quarters. But that's it. Michigan won't see much variation from that.
Defensively, it's ugly... My view says Schiano and whoever he shares DC duties with aren't getting along in the same fashion that Drevno and Frey apparently didn't get along. That defense looks every bit as unorganized as UM's OL did last year. And that won't change in three weeks.
Michigan is going to steamroll these guys into Bolivian the very same way they punched out UW, MSU, and PSU - right in the face.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
MSU will tell us a lot about OSU. MSU has a top 10 defense according to S&P+. The best defense OSU has played all year was PSU (20th in S&P+) where they nearly lost, and we saw how "good" PSU's defense is last Saturday. If MSU can hold them down, we will absolutely roll them as our D is not only better but better suited to OSU's strengths.
November 6th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
In conference play, here is how each stacks up in terms of scoring:
Offense: OSU #3 at 36 ppg / MSU #13 at 22 ppg
Defense: OSU #8 at 25 ppg / MSU #2 at 17 ppg
The teams are like polar opposites. Game time windchill is going to be 28 degrees. I am going with MSU's defense to win this one ugly, something like ... MSU 17 OSU 13.
BTW ... who is the #1 scoring offense in B1G conference play? yup, UM #1 at 37 ppg
November 6th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
Appreciate the solid evidence that M is pretty good on offense. It's the nature of fandom that we're all pretty critical, anxious about each failed series of downs, etc. But the truth is that the offense has been quite good. And I think the team can get quite a bit better.
Keep sharpening the knife? OSU has its hands full with MSU (and more). But we can play our next two games with an eye on getting ready for Columbus. Advantage: Meecheegan.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
This is a quality post with quality discussion. Even the stuff I disagree with is worth chewing on.
If Ohio State were wearing, say, Wisconsin uniforms, I would think that we were in good shape to win.
But it's Ohio State, and we're playing on the road. Stuff is going to go wrong. We were pretty clearly better than MSU, and they still tied the game in the third quarter because stuff went wrong.
But then, Michigan has been preparing for this game all year.
I see them struggling on offense and getting gashed on defense (not just Purdue and Nebraska; Minnesota, Indiana... everybody is moving the football on them). I see them using pure athleticism to run up the score on weak defenses, yet still not pulling away until the last quarter.
And Harbaugh and Warinner and Brown have been preparing for this for a year.
I mean, this has to be the year, right? It's a road game, which means it will be tough. OSU will be playing for its season (by the time they get there this might be all they have left). But...
It's gotta be the year.
Beat Ohio.
November 6th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
I agree, OSU at Columbus is a very tough environment even if UM is playing great and OSU has been struggling.
However, if MSU takes down OSU this weekend then the game in Columbus gets way easier. Why? The fans will be lost, the players will be demoralized and Michigan will smell blood.
And I give OSU only a 50/50 chance of beating Sparty in East Lansing. MSU was embarrassed last year and has a chance for redemption, which is enough fuel to get them up for this game.
November 6th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
OSU has much better talent than MSU, but (and give Dantonio credit here) MSU seems to be a lot stronger mentally. OSU is in a bad place. MSU will play hard and well, OSU... won't. Whether that's enough for MSU to win, I don't know.
November 6th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
Beat Rutgers.
November 6th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Regarding points 2 and 3:
-You're probably right if Haskins tries to go deep on a frequent basis. Tough to know how long his OL will be able to hold up against our DL, but his WRs are fast and athletic enough to give those passes a chance. Where I think OSU can do some damage is on screens. They've done very well with that this year, and its how you counter an extremely aggressive front seven like what Michigan has. Get the ball out quick to one of your hyper-athletic WRs, get him in a 1:1 situation with a corner playing man to man, and let him make a play.
-Haskins won't be mistaken for Pryor, Miller or Barrett anytime soon, but I doubt he's a complete statue. Meyer wouldn't have recruited him if he couldn't move at least a little bit, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some QB draws from him, just to throw something new at Michigan. Either way, this should be a game where we expect to see Martell in certain red zone packages.
November 6th, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
Something that hasn't been mentioned here about the Nebraska-OSU game are the terrible terrible drops by Nebraska WRs. I saw several where Martinez put the ball right on guys and if they catch them they are big gains or even TDs.
November 6th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Throw out the transitive data. Look at 2004 @ Columbus. Michigan was clearly a better squad all year but a 6-4 OSU team ripped us a new asshole.
November 6th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
Two things:
1) That OSU team got vastly better after changing QBs midseason (from Justin Zwick to Troy Smith).
2) That was 14 years ago.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:50 PM ^
And a game changing bull shit personal foul call against Crable.
November 6th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^
The wideouts of OSU are pretty good. I do think with the pressure we will get. With our secondary, Haskins could look very average.
November 6th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised to see more of a nickel package w/ 2 high safeties vs Ohio St.