Key Remaining B1G games
I think Iowa winning this week is good, because Michigan beats a higher ranked opponent.
As of right now NW leads the West at 4-1, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Purdue are 3-1.
NW has a h2h win over Purdue (that Purdue wins without 2 really stupid personal fouls) and Wisconsin has the h2h over Iowa.
Iowa and Wisconsin go to Purdue (Still expect them to lose at least one of these games)
Wisconsin is still the favorite to win the West.
Hypothetically, who would you like to play most/least in Indy?
October 22nd, 2018 at 6:33 PM ^
Have a Snickers Fargo, nobody likes you when you are like this.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^
I'm glad you put Michigan vs Rutgers on there. This rivalry must not be forgotten.
Seriously, can we put an over/under of 93.5 yards of offense for Rutgers against Michigan?
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:03 PM ^
Over. I doubt our walk-ons can keep Rutgers' first-string under 100 yards.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:16 PM ^
History says we can:
#FenceTheGarden lol
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
You misspelled "Rutger"
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^
So sick of Wisconsin. I think the world is so sick of Wisconsin. Iowa and Purdue I think would be better for a change. Iowa and Michigan would be a great ratings game for the title game.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
This is crazy to say, but I think OSU made Purdue look better than they are. OSU's defense absolutely gave up in that 4th quarter, and it'll be interesting to see how they look against better defenses like Iowa's.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:18 PM ^
I agree. Purdue's big play potential matched up perfectly with OSU's defense, which has been terrible in that regard.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^
The only two teams to give up more yards per play to Purdue than OSU were Mizzou and Illinois.
Purdue is a good team with a scary offense. But they lost their first 3 games for a reason. They're flawed, and luckily for them their strengths matched up vs OSU's weaknesses (which is everything but passing) but it wasn't vice-versa.
The best defense Purdue beat was BC, S&P+ #40 defense, and they only put up 30 points, 372 total yards and 1.9 YPC rushing. Purdue is good, but not that good.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
The truth is that the early non-conference losses by most of the teams on the upper half of the B1G are really bringing down each others' resumes:
Michigan's L to Notre Dame
Michigan State's L to ASU
Wisconsin's L to BYU
Northwestern's Ls to Duke and Akron
Purdue's Ls to EMU and Missouri
Maryland's L to Temple
As opposed to having one loss or two losses at this point, we're all beating each other up and pushing each other out of the rankings rather than getting boosts for underdog victories. I know the polls don't completely matter, but if Purdue doesn't lose those two early games, you bet they're a #10 - #12 1-loss team right now with that win over OSU (take Texas' jump after their win over OU). The unfortunate reality is that our conference shot ourselves in the foot really leaving little room for error.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
I'm not sure the loss to a likely playoff-bound ND team on the road is bringing down our resume too much
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
You're right; I agree. I kind of lost my train of thought up there but I guess my point is that
the other losses make choosing who to root for quite frustrating and complicated.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:18 PM ^
That's every conference though. ACC and SEC have 1 really good team and the rest are chasing. Pac-12 and Big 12 are a mess though. Oklahoma could very well lose to WVU. Or Okie State (rivalry games and all that)
Most national folks think Michigan is going to run away with the conference now though, just to show you how random optimism is way different than reality at the fandom level.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
Who the hell cares how strong the conference is? If Michigan wins out, they are in the playoff. Who cares if the teams they beat aren't as good as advertised?
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^
Because a strong conference might be the reason Michigan gets in over a 1 loss Big 12 or Pac 12 champ.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
I will be rooting for Pedo State to eek out a victory over Iowa. *Huge* if but on December 1 I would actually take Purdue over any B1G West team. That was a huge win, however they lost to Eastern and Missouri (both away games). I guess we find out more about them as a team next week in East Lansing. I also subscribe to the idea that we don't beat the same team twice (although if any team could do it; it might be the 2018 Wolverines atm). Purdue, Iowa (which has a gauntlet through Nov 17) and then Northwestern. Any team we face in Indy will be riding a huge confidence boost since the B1G West appears to be a toss up right now.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:30 PM ^
Eastern and Mizzou were both at Purdue.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
Whoops. I cannot read a schedule.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^
I have to laugh when Nebraska v OSU is on this list. Who would have thought that 3 days ago.
Purdue on turf in Indy would be the team I'd least prefer, they would obviously bring a huge crowd. I wouldn't mind any of the other 3.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^
A Nebraska win over OSU in Frost's first year would sure sooth some of the bad feelings around that program.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
I too would be soothed.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:09 PM ^
Maybe it's more emotion driving the decision, but I feel like rematches in the post season do not work out well for the previous winner of the game. It's hard to beat a good team twice. I'm sure someone has done the math, though, and am happy to be wrong here.
That being said -- I would much prefer the revenge tour continue with Iowa. Purdue would be ok, too, since my girlfriend went to Purdue and it would be an easy sell to go to Indy.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:34 PM ^
Believe it or not, Northwestern is the worst B1G team Michigan has played so far according to S&P+. Worse than Nebraska. They are five spots ahead of Western Michigan. I would gladly take them in the Big Ten Championship. Michigan would likely destroy them.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
IA vs UM in Indy. It's already a done deal.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
If we win out we're in the playoff. The committee has never put a 1 loss non conference champ in over a 1 loss conference champ. And the only way this scenario even happens is if LSU wins out (need wins vs Bama, @ TAMU) leaving a 1 loss Bama who misses the title game, or if Bama wins out but loses the SEC title game to a 1 loss SEC East champ. And once again, the committee has shown that conference championship > all else. We're not getting left out as a 1 loss champ for a 2nd SEC team.
The nightmare scenario after this is an undefeated ND and Clemson. Neither seem likely to lose the rest of the way (Clemson's lowest S&P projected win probability is 83% @ BC, ND is 69% @ USC). But besides for home vs Louisville for Clemson and the game vs Navy for ND, the rest of the teams they play are all at least respectable. None are great, but a loss wouldn't be world shattering either, especially with Clemson having the ACC title game as well. If either lose I think we jump them.
But let's say they both go undefeated. We'd have wins over Wisconsin, @MSU, PSU, @OSU and the B1G title game with a loss to ND week 1 on the road. The PAC-12's only hope is Wazzu, who would have wins over Oregon, Stanford and Washington as well as a crappy PAC-12 South team in the title game, with a loss to USC. Oklahoma would have a win over WVU plus the Big-12 title game and that's it? Maybe a good win over TTU if they end up being decent, plus a loss to Texas.
Even if our title game win is over NW, I don't see how we get left out. If we win we're in. So for B1G title purposes, give me NW because they're by far worst. Wisconsin I feel good about but rematches are always tough and that OL is always scary. Iowa seems good but lets see them beat a good team (best win is over S&P+ #37 Iowa State, at home by 10 before ISU was good. Besides that they've beaten up on middling B1G teams to rise up the ranks). And this is definitely recency bias but Purdue scares me most. So give me NW, probably Iowa, then Wisconsin and then Purdue. (Subject to change if Iowa starts wrecking Purdue and PSU).
I want to see PSU win this week, because I feel confident that they are who they are and we should beat them at home, off a bye, potentially fully healthy for the first time all year. So let PSU win so it looks better when we beat them, and also to show Iowa is overrated. Besides that give me whatever makes NW most likely to make the title game, so a win for them over Wisconsin and MSU over Purdue. Then just root for OSU to drop another for shits and gigs.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
I look at that and see Purdue as the favorite. Jeff Brohm can coach it, fellas.
And I shudder at Rondale Moore vs. our safeties in man coverage.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
My preference in order would be Northwestern, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Iowa. Iowa scares me for some reason.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^
Not sure Wisconsin's defense can get them there. Will struggle with NU and likely get beat by both PSU and Purdue - each just has too much offense to take it to a depleted Wisconsin.
Iowa seems to have the best shot, but has to beat the challengers. Plus, it would be great to play Iowa at Indy to add them to the "revenge tour" ... but we got to get there first and finish the season strong. Go Blue !!!
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
I have been a Purdue believer for a couple of weeks now (I know, this is AFTER they beat OSU), but I will go on record and say that I believe they win the West.
I just don't see anyone else in the West that is enough of a complete team, all the teams are flawed. It is just a matter of how flawed....
And Purdue Offense is the best unit of the teams in the West. They do get Iowa and Wisconsin at home. I will feel really good once they drop a bomb on Mork and Sparty this weekend (weather looks good and Sparty's Pass D against Brohm....LMAO).
As for the Big Ten Championship Game, it really doesn't matter. As I noted, I believe all the West teams are flawed:
Wisconsin's D
Iowa's O
Purdue D
NW....period
And when I say flawed, I mean they are not championship caliber level.
Michigan is rounding in to that complete team. Of course we have the #1 D, and I expect the Offense to continue to improve. Particularly with the CCG indoors, no goofy weather, no bad field conditions.
As you might tell with my heavy lean to Purdue, Moore is a DUDE, plain and simple.
In the end, Michigan wins out and gets in the CFP. To me, we would prefer ND to win out. While a loss might be to a lesser team, I do not want the discussion to come down to, hey we beat them head to head. That is just a huge factor to overcome (I would have to be-grudgingly accept that no matter how much I would love to spin the story).
Honestly, anyone else can lose (except ND unless they loss twice), the more the merrier, puts us in a better position overall.
One game at a time, don't care what their record is, what their ranking is, what the conditions are. Just keep winning.....
October 22nd, 2018 at 6:01 PM ^
You bring up a good point. I think we're a better team on turf, and in ideal conditions.
October 22nd, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^
There is not one team in the west that remotely scares me. Wisconsin was the closest thing to competent in that division.
October 22nd, 2018 at 6:04 PM ^
October 22nd, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^
Can't wait to watch this week's Iowa - PSU game. PSU is really teetering on the edge. At this point, Iowa looks like the most complete team in the West. I know this is what we do as fans, but trying to forecast who Michigan might play in Indy or what Michigan's CFP seeding would be kind of feels like angering the karma gods and putting the cart before the horse. It's simple, the team just needs to win out and they will be in.
Which brings me to the Iowa - PSU game. PSU is quietly going through a pretty rough stretch: OSU, bye, MSU, @ Indiana, Iowa, @ Michigan and home to Wisc. Iowa is a physical team and we will be getting them off a bye and a few roller-coaster type games; I think Iowa matches up pretty well with PSU, notwithstanding that the game is in Happy Valley. I also think Paul Chryst is a much better coach than James Franklin. The revenge tour must continue, and I fully expect a healthy D plus a personal payback game from Don Brown in two weeks' time in the Big House.
PSU is 5-2 now, but they could be looking at three straight losses (Iowa, @ Michigan and Wisconsin). In the long-run, an implosion of PSU plus Michigan winning out will really change the national discussion of the B1G and this progam.