Next year's NFL draft: any one on M roster a possible first rounder?
From TTB's scholarship count article, here is a list of M players eligible to be drafted next year (scholarship players only).
I see these players have potentials to be first rounder, provided they have a really good 2012-2013 season.
- Roy Roundtree
- Denard Robinson
- William Campbell (!)
- Fitzgerald Toussaint
- Taylor Lewan
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Roster:
REDSHIRT SENIORS = 8 (Final season 2012)
WR Roy Roundtree
TE Brandon Moore
OG Ricky Barnum
OG Elliott Mealer
OG Patrick Omameh
LB Kenny Demens
CB J.T. Floyd
S Jordan Kovacs
SENIORS = 5 (Final season 2012)
QB Denard Robinson
RB Vincent Smith
DE Craig Roh
DT William Campbell
S Brandin Hawthorne
REDSHIRT JUNIORS = 9 (Final season 2013)
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint
WR Jeremy Gallon
OT Taylor Lewan
OT Michael Schofield
DT Quinton Washington
LB Cameron Gordon
Denard would have to have one of the best seasons in CFB History to get drafted in the first round. Because he's have to get drafted as a QB in order to be in the first round. Anyone who thinks he's going to switch to WR and then get drafted in round 1 is sadly mistaken. The only way that happens is if right now he switches to WR and has a Percy Harvin type year. And we all know that's not happening.
I'm not being negative, but let's take off the maize and blue colored glasses. Denard had 15 INTs last year. We haven't seen anything that says he'll be a first round QB. Heck, I don't know if we've seen that he'll be an NFL QB.
Even with a RG3 type year, that doesn't put him in the 1st round as a QB, IMO...I think if he had an RG3 type year it would solidify him getting drafted as a QB rather than a WR. But numbers aren't everything...ask Kellen Moore and Case Keenum.
Sidenote, just a personal preference...Denard plays more like Michael Vick than RGIII if we want to compare. But again, but of those guys were DOMINANT for MULTIPLE years in college. People forget, Cam Newton was a 3rd Round QB before he dominated the SEC. But Cam is 6'5, 250. Let's let Denard beat Alabama, win a B1G Championship and try to find his way to NYC for the Heisman before we put him in the 1st round of the draft.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:10 AM ^
Regardless of how good of a season he could have, no one is going to take a sub 6' QB in the first round. Russell Wilson was an excellent college player and with 3-4 more inches, would have been taken ahead of Tannehil, but fell due to one thing alone, his height. It sounds stubborn, but the only productive starting QB in the NFL currently below 6'2" is Brees, and we know that Denard will never be Brees.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^
Well, if we take homerism out of the equation, then we have to admit that Denard is never going to be an NFL quarterback. Never.
April 29th, 2012 at 12:24 PM ^
randel el was a second round selection. denard > randel el.
Draft strategy has changed A TON since Randel El was drafted. In today's draft, he wouldn't have gone before the 3rd, and Denard won't go in the first.
i agree that draft strategy has seemed to change the last several years. if anything, teams are drafting more and more based on pure athleticism (ie. combines). so this would increase denard's chances of being drafted in the first round; though i don't see that happening.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:02 PM ^
He was making the opposite point, that draft strategy will hurt Denard.
Personally, I think Denard is a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick. The Pat White experiment in Miami had to have hurt his chances and the Wildcat is about dead, not multiple TEs is the "thing."
You look at guys like Travis Benjamin from Miami, he was one of 4-5 smaller, super fast, dynamic type WRs to go in rounds 3 and 4 this year. And those guys played WR all throughout college.
Now Denard is a special athlete, plus he bring some versitility to the table, that's why I think he's ahead of those guys. But in the end...you're not going to take a 1st round draft pick on a converted WR. Not unless that WR is 6'6, 240 and runs a pure 4.3 at the combine like Matt Jones did.
We'll see, I'm not betting against Denard...but if I'm him, I'm less worried about the first round and more worried about the right fit. He's a very specific type of player. I mentioned the Falcons being a great fit for him. Detroit would be too. Indoors for at least 9 games (count @ Minnesota)...he can play the slot, help at RB (althought Javid Best kind of has that role)...and even give you a wildcat look in place of Stafford a time or two.
But you don't look for that type of player in the 1st round.
Wow, you're really going out an a limb there. If any QB in the country has an RGIII like season, they could go in the first round.
I think Lewan has the best shot, but I hope he comes back and goes first round in 2 years.
April 29th, 2012 at 12:00 PM ^
yea, I don't see him going pro early. Seems like he enjoys college too much. But who knows
It is kind of sad to see only three players selected and two in 7th round (not that there is anything wrong with 7th round - Tom Brady was a 6-th rounder.)
I would say a measure of success for Hoke and co. is their recruited classes produce earlier round (1st round?) NFL draftees on a yearly basis. It means they have recruited good college players and developed them well.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:35 AM ^
We simply haven't had players last in our system for 3-4-5 years like most teams have. You look at a kid like Joe Bolden. He naturually can end up as a mid-round pick just with above average progression.
You take Kenny Demens...he sat behind Obi Ezeh who was always in the wrong spot for a year and a half, and then he was coached by GERG and on one of the worst defenses ever. Guys like Demens, Floyd, RVB even Roh and M-Rob are going to suffer from the past we've had here at Michigan. Typically those guys are locks to be late round picks.
Soon we'll have elite talent that has gone through the same system. Guys like Morris, Darboh, Kalis and all the OLmen in '12 and '13...Pipkins, Beyer/Clark, Bolden, Countess, Wilson and Thomas. These are guys that you can easily see in the EARLY rounds of the draft if they come in and play and get better like their potential says they can.
Even guys like Desmond Morgan, who if he was a senior this year and had to play through all the BS of the past is a lock to be a UFA...even Morgan could have a legit shot at getting drafted before it's all said and done. That's you're difference.
I don't think Denard will get much of a shot at QB, but I think somebody will draft him to play a role similar to that of Percy Harvin. Harvin went 22nd in 2009, despite testing positive for pot and being branded as having "character issues."
Denard is just as much of an athlete, and is the polar opposite of a person with "character issues." I think he'll go fairly high.
Harvin, in three seasons, caught 133 passes for 1,929 yards and had great career stats as a running back. Why does everyone assume that Denard has great hands and that he will immediately be able to start running pass routes in the NFL? I'd love to see Denard's passing game make a major jump forward this year, and while I expect him to be improved and reduce the number of INT's he has thrown over the last two years, I still have some doubts.
I'd love to see him be drafted in the first or second round, but there is nothing right now that suggests that will occur. I would think that the NFL combine will be huge for Denard next year.
April 29th, 2012 at 12:02 PM ^
He's a great athlete. I'm pretty sure he could learn to catch a ball
"he could learn to catch the ball" is very different from "he could learn to catch the ball over his right shoulder while running 4.4 straight line with a sideline to deal with" or... "he could learn to catch the ball over the middle from his slot position blind to the fact a 215 lb safety is about to rip his head off."
If WR was so easy, every super fast track athlete would go and play it. The bears and raiders have tried this - Willie Gault - over the years. It's not so "easy".
I'm hoping Denard falls to 64 next year so my Skins can grab him.
I'm counting on Denard being RGIII's #1 target
You want a 6' converted QB as your #1 target? Didn't you guys have Randle-El?
I hope my team gets Denard, like all of us. But I don't want any 6' guy as my #1 target. Also I don't want a converted QB who's never shown he can catch as my #1 target.
I want Denard and I want to use him like Percy Harvin. Some slot WR, some RB, some Wildcat...save the #1 WR spots for the Larry Fitzgerald's and Calvin Johnson's of the world.
Meh... We're used to throwing to Santana Moss as our #1 here. Denard wouldn't have any problems being accepted in DC. Although Leonard Hankerson is about to turn up the juice.
Quite frankly...I'd be PISSED as a 'Skins fan that they have a bunch of slot WRs trying to play outside. I apologize my buddy Devin Thomas was a bust for you guys, but Denard hasn't played a down at WR and you want to make him a #1 outside WR in the National Football League?
Someone made a very fair point about Devin Hester being a bust at WR...and Hester played WR in high school and in college on top of CB duties. But he's simply not an outside #1.
Ted Ginn would be another example (and we was solely a WR in college).
I don't want Denard to be a bust, I want him to find a team that is going to use his skills. I'd LOVE to see him on a team like the Falcons. Help out Matt Ryan a little at QB, provide a change of pace from Turner at RB...AND play the slot inside Roddy White and Julio Jones.
I don't even like the Falcons like that, but that is a DREAM SCENARIO. Put Denard in a Percy Harvin role in Atlanta and you have an offense (assuming they can get more OLine help) that rivals any top offense in the league.
AND he gets to play indoors/on turf for more than half the year with 8 home games in ATL and 1 away game in NO. Plus any other indoor games on the schedule. "LOOK AT THAT SPEED!!"
*BTW, looks like some Redskins fan disagrees with you and went neg happy...sorry bro*
April 29th, 2012 at 12:28 PM ^
I dono about a #1, but I think denard would make a ridiculously good wideout. short, speedy wideouts are the new wave of nflwideouts
April 29th, 2012 at 11:13 AM ^
Don't you mean you're counting on Denard being Kork Coupon's #1 target?
April 29th, 2012 at 12:03 PM ^
and cousins
A while back someone posted Mel Kiper's rankings for the 2013 draft and Denard was either the 1st or 2nd ranked WR on his list which is a guaranteed 1st rounder. I know a lot of things can change but I like Denard's chances.
As for Roundtree, he's a fringe NFL product, small and doesn't really have breakaway speed.
Come on, you know that list is crap half the time...Teams will draft according to their NEEDS. Denard is a project at WR, therefore, he's a luxury pick.
Just a few years back, one of my good friends Devin Thomas was supposed to be the #1 WR...he ended up being #2 behind St. Louis' Donnie Avery and NEITHER was taken in round 1.
No WR went in the first round of that draft...
April 29th, 2012 at 10:17 AM ^
Matt Millen wasn't still around---he would have prevented that from happening
April 29th, 2012 at 11:46 AM ^
You could have made the exact same point without letting everyone know that you and Devin Thomas used to play swords in elementary school.
April 29th, 2012 at 11:23 AM ^
Didn't Kiper have Ezeh as a first rounder a year before or something absurd like that? DRob will not be the #1 WR next year.
True juniors and redshirt sophs will also be eligible.
I don't mean any offense to the five players you listed, but no.
Taylor Lewan, maybe. But he would need an All-Big 10 season.
As long as the product is good on the field and Michigan is winning, the NFL draft picks will come...
I agree with all of the Lewan posts... that is if he goes pro after next year. Demens has a shot if he has a great year and good combine...
Roy won't even sniff the first several rounds. IF he gets drafted, it will be the 7th round.
I said this in the other thread...IMO, Fitz is the best bet to be an early round draft pick (since all of this is based on amazing seasons).
Lewan is coming back for his senior year IMO, so he's off the board. That leaves Fitz, Denard and Campbell as your only even remotely realistic candidates. Denard isn't a 1st round QB, IMO...I think he could be a 2nd round "ATH" (primarily WR). And Campbell, well...a man can pray.
That leaves Fitz, and I may be being overly optimistic, but I think Toussaint has a GREAT year. He's got to leave early because of the shelf-life of a RB. He can't risk coming back. Also, he's not from the best area and has a daughter. I'd hope he was gone so he can represent Michigan at the next level. And in that case, I'd say 2nd-3rd round. But maaaaybe he could sneak into the bottom of round 1 like Doug Martin did this year.
What, no love for Craig Roh ?
Feel free to moderate this as extremely insightful
If I were drafting, I would trade up to #1 overall and select Denard. He deserves it beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Matt?
I heard Denard is #1 on Millen's board - after all he will be a WR...
Those rose colored glasses you're wearing are pretty thick, my friend.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:03 AM ^
If Lewan leaves, then I could see him being a first-rounder. Otherwise, though, nobody on that list strikes me as a first-round talent. Of course, that means very little - yes, 1st rounders tend to play more than any other draft class, but you could make a very impressive HOF team out of guys drafted in the later rounds.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:04 AM ^
April 29th, 2012 at 10:05 AM ^
There are a lot of possibilities for Michigan players to go in the 1st round next year. They're going to have to have a big season like all 1st rounder's do.
Fitz having a 2000+ yard season
Roundtree hauling in 20 touchdown catches
Big Will with (20) sacks
Taylor Lewan recognized for how well he plays
Denard showing off at the combine (on top of an outstanding year at QB)
It all starts with an opening win on the road against the Tide!
April 29th, 2012 at 12:13 PM ^
I hope Lewan does not go after this season but if he does he will probably be a first or early second round pick. The NFL loves B1G linemen, especially tackles (Long, Thomas, Carimi, Bulaga, etc.) but I think unless he cleans up every major award then there may be some competition for a top five or ten pick.
Denard to me seems like a pick everyone is anticipating but not really sure about, like Pat White, Tim Tebow, Brad Smith or Randle El. You don't really know how their skills will translate to the NFL. I would guess that he is a second or third rounder as a WR but if he has a high completion pct. and TD/INT ratio then he may go higher, though still as some sort of WR/QB/RB combo guy.
If Floyd has a great season, I would guess he is probably a late third-rounder at worst. Not to say he wouldn't be a great pro or couldn't go higher but I am just kind of going based on how other B1G CBs have gone in the last few drafts.
One player that could be a sleeper is Jordan Kovacs. He reminds me of Jim Leonhard, Louis Delmas, or Eric Smith. He is obviously a smart player that can blitz and makes up for range with good reads and instincts. He may go later than the third round but seems like he could be productive.
It is hard to predict these things because so much of it depends on what teams need and players can rise and fall based on injuries, accolades, draft measurables, interviews, etc. It also seems like other schools tend to send clusters of talent to the NFL based on their college teams success and scheme. Alabama, LSU, and Stanford have really raised their NFL profiles in recent years while schools like Michigan, Florida, and Miami have regressed.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:10 AM ^
Will decide a lot of the draft future for the M seniors. If Denard torches Alabama, look out. BWC and/or Roh get first-round looks if they muck about in bama's backfield. Big games by any offensive player in that game will draw a ton of eyes, even if its a crazy yardage reciever game off of some oh noes. Omameh and Lewan especially have a great chance to look good here.
If anyone gets drafted in the first round from Michigan though, this is where the conversation about it will begin.
April 29th, 2012 at 10:23 AM ^
Here is my attempt at doing what Kiper and McShay do.
Roundtree: Most likely a 4th-7th rounder. His ceiling being a 2nd rounder.
Denard Robinson: Most likely a 2nd-4th rounder. His ceiling being end of the first round.
BWC: Most likely 5th round - undrafted. His ceiling being third round.
Fitzgerald Toussaint: I don't think he leaves after next year, but if he does, he is most likely a 4th to 6th rounder. His celing being a 2nd round pick.
Taylor Lewan: Hopefully Taylor won't leave, but if he does he would most likely be a 2nd-3rd round pick. His ceiling being in the first half of the 1st round assuming a great season.
Other players who could be drafted:
JT Floyd: Could go in the later rounds if he continues to be productive and depending on how he tests at the combine.
Kovacs: I could see Kovacs going in the 4th-7th rounds, maybe even higher.
Roh: A big year from Roh could mean a late round draft pick for him, in the 4-7 range.