Vegas wiseguy on UM/UT
ESPN's betting blog has weighed in on a couple of the regionals, and assigned Vegas wiseguy Alan Boston to our regional. He likes us straight up and against the spread.
http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=6219718
Money quotes:
This is a classic tourney game that, in the old days, you would drool over. It's the not-so-smart Vols team vs. the ultra-smart Michigan team.
I think Michigan is going to win the game because smarts can beat athleticism in the NCAA tourney. It wouldn't surprise me if Michigan runs them out of the gym.
I like this guy.
Do you still like him if he comments on how Tenn will struggle against our 1-3-1 zone?
Cause the OP neglected to mention that point.
This guy, along with most, know nothing. WE DON'T RUN THE 1-3-1 THIS YEAR.
Yes, we do, just not very often. The 1-3-1 was the defense that we were running against Kansas when we made our run at the end of that game to tie it.
As has been noted in other threads on guys who had mentioned our 1-3-1 zone, if there was a game where we were going to break that out again this is one of them. I'll be shocked if our guys aren't playing a heavy dose of the 2-3 zone in this one too. They'll play some man, of course, since it's been the base defense, but zoning up to force them into jumpers when they're one of the worst 3pt% teams in the country seems like a no-brainer. I expect once we get into zone we'll stay there unless it's causing us to get murdered on the glass and leading to too many easy putbacks.
wiseguys are right every time!
I just hope we shoot the 3-ball really well out of the gate.
This guy has character. I like character.
What about grit? You can't discount grit.
Is moxie dead now that a certain someone transferred?
Fundamentally sound, grit.
Over on UMHOOPS, Dylan has a post up with quotes from the UT starters. They are genuinely concerned about being able to defend because the scout team was owning them as they were installing the UM offense.
They also were excited about Tobias on Novak. They are underestimating the kid's grit and toughness.
Tobias' weakness is well-documented:
Tobias is an excellent player. I'm not going to lie, I'm more than a little worried about the matchup.
He is a wise guy. Good coaching + decent talent > Bad coaching + good talent.
that cbs believes Tennessee has a "Significant edge" in coaching
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/edge/west/MI…
I'm betting he has stubby legs.
I calcualted it out today and during Michigans last 13 games (since at MSU) we have beat Ken Pomeroy's projected score by an aggregate 78 points.
Which is +6 per game better than the projection.
Millman does something similar with his Sweat Barometer which uses the actual vegas line (MSU has been last all year in this metric).
Michigan has been crushing lines all year, even more so by Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency system because those rankings don't contain a recent performance adjustment like a true vegas power rating.
Kenpom has us favored by 2 and Vegas has us dogs by 1... but its entirely possible that the line should be more like Michigan by 5.
Reasonable concerns about game location and team motivation (Tennesse might actually play to their talent) can be raised, but even by advanced metrics lately Michigan has been undervalued.
Very astute observation, I thought......what does it take to get into Tennessee again?
March 15th, 2011 at 11:11 PM ^
very little
March 16th, 2011 at 10:13 AM ^
Killer ratios and the ability to look good in a bikini.
Doesn't "wiseguy" usually refer to someone in the Mafia? When I first saw the post title, I thought it might have been something about point-shaving allegations from a mob guy who talked to the FBI or something.
/overthinking
March 15th, 2011 at 11:10 PM ^
I like this guy...