John Beilein in the NCAA Tournament

John Beilein in the NCAA Tournament

Submitted by Mercury Hayes on March 24th, 2014 at 5:04 PM

Earlier today I wrote a diary which looked at how John Beilein has performed as a coach when his team gets 4-7 days of rest. Now I look at how John Beilein has performed as a coach in the tournament when compared to other coaches and the norm.

As many pundits such Nate Silver have pointed out, John Beilein is the best at outperforming his seed level. This was evident last year and back in his Richmond days when the No. 15 Spiders took down a No. 2 seed. But what does that actually look like?

John Beilein is 9-4 in the NCAA Tournament while at Michigan and he was 5-2 at West Virginia. He went 1-1 at Richmond bringing his combined tournament record to 15-7 or a .681 win percentage. Of course, some of those losses were with a stacked deck. Can anyone blame Richmond for losing a second round game in 1998? Can anyone blame John Beilein for losing to Duke on a missed floater, or losing to Louisville after last year's run?

By adjusting for what the expected outcomes are, John Beilein is solid in the NCAA tournament when favored to win or in a close matchup. He is also .500 when expected to lose. Yes. On the biggest stage, coach B is .500 when his team is expected to lose! Amazing.

Let's start at how I came to this conclusion

Richmond: 1-1 in games where he was expected to lose (15 seed).

West Virginia: 2-0 in games he was expected to win (vs. Northwestern State, Southern Illinois) and 1-0 in toss up games (his No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 Providence) and 2-2 in games where his team was the clear underdog.

Michigan: 4-1 when expected to win (the loss being against Ohio) and 2-0 in toss up games (Clemson, Tennessee). He is also 3-3 in games where his teams were expected to lose such as games vs. Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, Florida and Louisville. In fact that may be generous as many expected Michigan to fold against VCU last year. That could have been considered a tossup.

Spanning his three schools, coach B is 6-1 in games he was expected to win, 3-0 in tossup games and 6-6 where his team was an underdog.   Based on Ken Pom rankings, you can make the case that this is a tossup game. Based on the seeds, you can say No. 11 Tennessee is a clear underdog.  But even if you classify Michigan as the underdog, remember, coach Beilein is 6-6 in the NCAA Tournament in games he is supposed to lose with wins over top seeds and blue blood programs.

No matter how much love is given to Tennesee's big men or their tournament play as of late, Beilein has beaten better teams with far less. And for that, you have to feel pretty excited about his tournament odds.

By the way, his .681 win percentage is just slightly south of Izzo's .688 conference game winning percentage. And if you are wondering what the best percentage is in the tournament? Well, that belongs to coach K. He's right around .750.


OT: John Thompson: Butler/VCU Natl Champ = All-time Cinderella

OT: John Thompson: Butler/VCU Natl Champ = All-time Cinderella

Submitted by Muttley on April 3rd, 2011 at 3:23 PM

I disagree*.

While Butler, an 8-seed like 1983 NC State and 1985 Villanova, would tie for the lowest seed to win the championship, there are no Houston or Georgetown juggernauts filled with the best 19-22 year olds out there. You could fill up all of the 2011 at-large slots with players that would still be elgible but have left for the NBA.  Early entries just from 2010


1983 Houston Roster

Talent you won't find on present-day college rosters

Hakeem Olajuwon

Clyde Drexler

Other supporting NBA-level talent

Michael Young

Larry Micheaux


1985 Georgetown Roster

Talent you won't find on present-day college rosters

Patrick Ewing

Reggie Williams

David Wingate

Other supporting NBA-level talent

Michael Jackson

Bill Martin


The '83 and '85 upsets were from a 30ish team beating a #1 that was fully loaded w/ the best 19-22yr olds. By contrast, Butler, or VCU is more like a #50 winning a tournament of only #20 and down.

*In fairness to John Thompson, he was asked this question on-air and just gave an off-the-cuff answer.

Chait on today's game

Chait on today's game

Submitted by Jasper on March 20th, 2011 at 11:37 PM

Chait's take on today's game:

- - -

I found his remark on the "now-customary Blue devil officiating edge" interesting.  Does it explain a huge chunk of their wins?  Not likely, but if Beilein is complaining, it probably at least exists.

For reference, check out the "Duke flops" section here:

Yes, that's a Tar Heel complaining (a disclosure made early in the post).

Jalen Rose interviewed by WVLZ 1180 in Knoxville today

Jalen Rose interviewed by WVLZ 1180 in Knoxville today

Submitted by mgowin on March 17th, 2011 at 3:28 PM

I was driving through Knoxville this afternoon and got to listen to part of an interview of Jalen by local AM radio host Tony Basilio. I only got a chance to listen to a small portion of the interview, but what I did get to hear was good. I caught the tail-end of some of the Fab Five Documentary questions and after that Rose talked a bit about his relationship with UT assistant head coach Tony Jones and how he, Jones and UM assistant Bacari Alexander (all Detroit Southeastern alums)have shared scouting info for tomorrows game. Rose also went on to say that he felt that firing Pearl would be a huge mistake, that his good deeds outweigh the negative things he has done.

BEWARE: I'm still at work and have yet to try to listen to the archive of the show, I just thought I would post it for people who end their workday earlier than I do.

EDIT: I'm not sure if the interview is in segement 1 or segment 2

Obama's Bracket

Obama's Bracket

Submitted by ImHungover on March 16th, 2011 at 12:06 PM

FWIW, was watching Sportscenter this morning, and they had Obama on television making his picks. He had us beating Tennessee in the first round and losing to Duke in the second. I know it means nothing, but it's nice to see our ex-commencement speaker give us a little love.

OT: Purdue's Barlow suspended for the rest of the season

OT: Purdue's Barlow suspended for the rest of the season

Submitted by FabFiver5 on March 16th, 2011 at 11:43 AM

Purdue's Kelsey Barlow has been suspended for the remainder of the season. Edit your brackets accordingly.…

EDIT: Sources are telling me that Barlow's suspension is from hitting Ryne Smith (other teammate now out with a concussion) in the head with a ball rack because he called him out for an alcohol-related issue. What a mess.