- Member for
- 8 years 2 weeks
- View recent blog entries
|2 weeks 1 day ago||I can't remember where, but I||
I can't remember where, but I read earlier today that during the regular season the spread was padded by 10 points, and during the playoffs (not including the Super Bowl), the spread was padded by 6 points. That makes beating the "spread" substantially easier.
Also, one week he failed to submit his picks on time and had to buy a "power up" that randomly made picks for him, and the (alleged) random picks were all correct, which is certainly possible but makes the whole thing seem a little sketchy.
EDIT: Since everybody is still acting as if this is completely impossible, I went back and checked ATS + 10 performance for both Detroit and Dallas. If you simply took both of those teams throughout the regular season, with a spread padded with 10 additional points, you'd have gone 31-1. Of course, taking both teams is impossible (or at least unreasonable), as Detroit and Dallas played each other; that is the one game that Detroi lost ATS + 10.
Given how close the spread tends to be, and given an additional 10 points on top of it, and given the opportunity to pick the optimal 4 games every week, I do not find it impossible to believe somebody went undefeated throughout the regular season.
The pad dropping to 6 points for the playoffs obviously makes the whole thing more difficult, but while I think there's room for skepticism, I'm assuming the people saying this simply can't be possible are ignoring the padding on the spread.
|6 weeks 4 days ago||Over the holidays, I actually||
Over the holidays, I actually became interested in figuring out how often composite 5*s pan out. I chose to look at the classes of 2010-2013, starting with 2010 since that's the first year all four current recruiting sites (Rivals, Scout, ESPN, and 247) were extant and ending with 2013 since kids in that class have had a full four years in college.
The 247 composite 5* RBs from those classes are:
Six of those guys (Savon Huggins, Russell Shell, Lache Seastrunk, Keith Ford, Brandon Williams, and Derrick Green) transferred and finished their careers at a school other than the one at which they started. Two --Michael Dyer and Isaiah Crowell -- had their careers shortened by arrests. None of them were ever an All American. TJ Yeldon, Michael Dyer, and Lache Seastrunk each made first team All-Conference once. Malcolm Brown once made second team All Conference. Isaiah Crowell made All Conference at Alabama State after getting booted from the Georgia team after his arrest.
I suppose everyone has their own expectations for 5* players. Personally, I was surprised by how few of those guys met my own personal expectations for 5* RBs.
|8 weeks 5 days ago||I was recounting the woes of||
I was recounting the woes of our OL recruiting with my friends just the other day, which is why I can tell you off the top of my head Bosch started three games as a freshman at Michigan and has started every game the last two years for West Virginia.
|28 weeks 6 days ago||Hyundai has a large tech center in Washtenaw||
Hyundai has a large tech center in Washtenaw County. I know several people who work there. From that perspective, I'd say Hyundai is very local for U of M.
Toyota also has a large research facility in Washtenaw. If any of the Big Three have similar facilities in the area, I'm not aware of them.
|36 weeks 1 day ago||yes, the right word is luminaries. I use||
yes, the right word is luminaries. I use illuminati in its place for humor, sorta my personal voracity or bolivia. but I guess if you don't know me you just assume I used the wrong word and there's no humor. what can I say? the blog runs on inside jokes, and that's as far inside as it gets.
|44 weeks 4 days ago||Except, as has already been||
Except, as has already been said, it doesn't work that way. If you get any kind of institutional aid and play football, it counts against the 85 scholarships for football. That prevents a situation where a school awards 85 football scholarships then brings in 30 more kids on "academic (wink-wink)" scholarships. It's the same rule that applies if a kid plays football and another sport -- the scholarship counts against football; Michigan couldn't save a football scholarship by counting Drake Johnson's scholarship against the track team.
|49 weeks 4 days ago||I think I stand corrected.||
I think I stand corrected. I'd swear I recall hearing and reading that sleep apnea was implicated in Kirby's demise. It makes sense -- as big as he got, I can't imagine he didn't have sleep apnea. However, when I looked for the links, I found nothing credible, just some forum posts (like mine). As such, I'll say off the top of my head the one person I can recall whose death was linked to sleep apnea was Reggie White (I did find substantial documentation for that).
|49 weeks 4 days ago||As I understand it, sleep||
As I understand it, sleep apnea doesn't cause death, it causes/contributes to conditions (like stroke or cardiac arrest) that cause death. As such, I don't think you'll ever hear of somebody whose cause of death was sleep apnea. If you want examples of people whose deaths were strongly linked to problems caused or exacerbated by sleep apnea, off the top of my head I'll give you Kirby Puckett and Reggie White.
|1 year 4 weeks ago||Do you mean academic scholarships?||
Harvard doesn't offer athletic scholarships.
|1 year 14 weeks ago||The coaches didn't actually show up and do the||
The coaches didn't actually show up and do the decorating. They paid a service to do it.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||They climbed and sat on the||
They climbed and sat on the wall in front of our students? I saw them do that on the opposite end of the field where their fans were sitting, but not in our student section. I'll admit I couldn't stomach watching them and just sat down and stared at the ground, so if it happened, I wouldn't have seen it. Frankly, though, I have a hard time imagining they would have climbed within reach of our students. That's a recipe for a riot.
|1 year 18 weeks ago||My initial impression was the||
My initial impression was the same -- that the State players were going to our student section to taunt. However, a friend who was sitting in that end zone told me they actually went over there to check on what's-his-name -- the guy who scored the touchdown and then had his hip broken in the celebration. Obviously, he and his broken hip were still on the ground in the end zone. My friend said he didn't see any Spartans interacting with our fans until they had the bottle(s?) thrown at them. As much as I like to bash Sparty, I'm not sure they did anything wrong there.
|1 year 19 weeks ago||Except there are limited||
Except there are limited admissions for out of district students. Josh Jackson is paying tuition to attend Saline and "get coached up." Other kids and their families may be less able and/or willing to do that.
Plus, I have a son on the team, and Palka has reportedly made it clear he intends to move on to the college ranks once his son -- currently a senior -- graduates. Palka is, IMHO, an enormous part of Saline's success, and I expect the program to regress if/when he leaves. Ace noted Pioneer was outcoached by Saline/Palka; as somebody who has seen every game for the last two seasons, I've never seen a game where I didn't think that was the case, even the two Saline lost.
|1 year 24 weeks ago||Bobby Taylor||
Bobby Taylor was a 6'3" consensus All American cornerback for Notre Dame in the mid-90s and also made at least one Pro Bowl during a reasonably long-ish NFL career. So, two tall CBs panned out, which doubles the odds on Clark, right?
|2 years 2 weeks ago||Free parking all over||
Took my kids to the WBB game against OSU earlier this year, and not only were parking spots available all over the place, they were also all free.
|2 years 4 weeks ago||If memory serves||
Navarre was an All-State DE that everybody else was recruiting to play DE. I believe he did play both ways in HS, though, and played QB on the offensive side of the ball rather than TE, which is how he wound up at QB for Michigan.
|2 years 5 weeks ago||Stefan Humphries||
Stefan Humphries is the only really successful Wolverine I can recall who attended St. Thomas Aquinas. I remember looking that up before and being disappointed that we didn't manage to keep pulling talent out of there. OSU has had a lot of success with STA kids, most recently with Joey Bosa.
|2 years 11 weeks ago||I live in the same||
I live in the same neighborhood as some of the coaches. I have friends who live in the same neighborhood as most of the others. None of us -- including the coaches -- live in mansions.
Yes, the head coach and coordinators are paid extremely well. The rest of the staff, while well paid, are not earning "I don't worry about being out of a job" money. That's not to mention guys you've never heard of -- like S&C coordinators who work under Wellman -- who make a whole let less and who are likely out of a job if Wellman goes.
Yes, most of the people likely to be impacted will probably catch on somewhere else, and if they don't, it probably means they aren't that good. It's hard on their families either way, though. If they're lucky, they're picking up and moving and leaving all their friends behind to start over again. If they're unlucky, Dad's out of a job and looking for a new line of work.
I'm not suggesting you should shed a tear for any of these guys, and I'm not saying I don't think that relieving Hoke of his HC duties isn't the right thing to do. I do think it's wrong to pretend all of these guys are being driven home in their Rolls where they'll relax by their indoor pools as long as they want and light cigars with $100 bills. There definitely is a human element to this.
|3 years 44 weeks ago||CRISP = Course/Class||
CRISP = Course/Class Registration Involving Student Participation IIRC.
|4 years 5 weeks ago||You lost me. Looking at your||
You lost me. Looking at your original chart, it seems there could be a maximum of 23 guys who wound up being All-Big+, and it seems unlikely there would be many more than 13. Is this list of 30 guys maybe the ones who were either solid or All-Big+? 30 sort of seems a little high even for that crowd.
|4 years 11 weeks ago||That is very generous||
Honestly, though, even though it's the Orange Bowl and not the BCS Championship game, I think NIU giving any students who will be attending a free ticket is a better deal.
|4 years 22 weeks ago||Release the Heiko||
Heiko and his badgering/mind control got Borges running bubble screens early in year 2. I assume you'll be deploying Heiko against Hoke and traditional punt formation immediately, and I further assume Michigan will be punting from the spread (although Hoke will initially call it something cooler like "X-Ray punting") no later than the start of next year's B1G season.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||Sagarin's algorithm says||
Sagarin's algorithm says Michigan is the 9th best team in the country. I think that's pretty favorable. I'm a MIchigan fan, and even I don't think we're the 9th best team in the country.
The problem is the BCS doesn't want to incent teams to run up the score to improve their rankings, so they removed margin of victory from all BCS computer rankings. So, Sagarin computes a second rating that takes a key component of his algorithm out, it becomes politically correct, and the results are completely wonky.
|5 years 11 weeks ago||BCS uses ELO CHESS. Michigan||
BCS uses ELO CHESS. Michigan fell from 22 to 23. Baylor held steady at 7.
|5 years 14 weeks ago||In fairness to Sagarin, the||
In fairness to Sagarin, the BCS elects to use the politically correct ELO-CHESS version of Sagarin's ratings. In Sagarin's "pure" ratings, Oklahoma is 3 and OK State is 4, but Wisconsin is 7 and Michigan is 9. Missouri, TAMU, and UT are next at 10, 11, and 14, but then we get Nebraska at 17 and Sparty at 22. K State is 23 and Penn State is 25. Then we get Baylor at 29, but Ohio (33), Illinois (40), Iowa (45), and Northwestern (53) are all ahead of iowa State at 62. Purdue (66) is ahead of Texas Tech (68). Minnesota (101) is ahead of Kansas (106).
|5 years 17 weeks ago||I got the book today||
I got the book today and had time to read just about the same number of pages. It's definitely been an interesting read, and it seems I had repressed memories of most of the 2008 season. I had forgotten many of the details of those 2008 games Bacon described, so I went back and pored over box scores. I am a bit dismayed by how very inaccurate Bacon's recounting of the facts of the 2008 Purdue game are. He writes Michigan led 42-35. They did not. Purdue led 42-35. He writes that Purdue scored a TD but missed a 2-point conversion, leaving Michigan with a 42-41 lead. That, obviously, did not happen. He writes that Michigan only needed to get a first down to run out the clock, when in fact Michigan scored late to tie the game at 42, kicked to Purdue, surrendered the TD on the horrific hook-and-lateral, and got the ball back with 26 seconds left. Threet and Mathews actually drove us to the Purdue 47 for a Hail Mary attempt that failed.
I recognize the book is not an epic retelling of the 2008 Michigan-Purdue Clash of the Titans, but I'm not sure I understand how something so inaccurate could have been missed prior to publication.
|5 years 18 weeks ago||Small correction: I believe||
Small correction: I believe the odds of Michigan winning the Nebraska game should be -13% rather than +13%.
|5 years 20 weeks ago||Unless I'm mistaken, the||
Unless I'm mistaken, the unadjusted percentages assume the two teams are equal (i.e., each has a 50% chance to win the game at kickoff). The spread percentages are modified using the spread as an indicator of how comparable the teams really are. So, once Fitz lost 4 yards to bring up 3rd and 5 from our own 25, we'd have been slightly more likely to lose than to win if Minnesota had been as good as us.
|5 years 24 weeks ago||I can't speak to any||
I can't speak to any complexities specific to your situation. It's also been several years since I had to rely on ESPN Gameplan to watch a Michigan game. However, if the service works now like it did then, it was just like any other PPV event on cable and was indistinguishable from any normal Michigan broadcast. The $15 cost included all-day access to all available games, and once or twice I even took advantage of that and watched some other games I wouldn't normally have seen.
So, if you determine Gameplan actually allows you to watch the game, and assuming the service hasn't changed, I believe it's a very good option. Personally, given the choice between paying $15 for Gameplan and trying to find a consistent and high quality stream, I'd spend the $15 every time.
|5 years 36 weeks ago||I'd say not so universally higher rated||
Wormley is rated higher by Scout, ESPN, and 24/7. Wormley is the #13 DE to Scout while Strobel is #24. 24/7 says Wormley is the #3 SDE and #57 overall, while Strobel is the #14 WDE and #169 overall. ESPN says Wormley is the #16 DE while Strobel is #56. Only Rivals prefers Strobel; Strobel is a 5.8 and #231 overall to Rivals, while Wormley is a 5.7 and not in the top 250.