Small correction: I believe the odds of Michigan winning the Nebraska game should be -13% rather than +13%.
Mid-Week Metrics Sees A Bad Third Quarter
Our first chart to end at the bottom
Best Three Plays:
Play 162: Keshawn Martin fumbles to give Michigan great field position, +13%.
Play 166: Robinson to Koger on 3rd and 13 sets up 4th and 1, +12%.
Play 117: Thomas Gordon strips Edwin Baker in the open field, +10%.
Worst Three Plays:
Play 172: Denard sacked on 4th and 1, –21%.
Play 178: Denard throws a pick 6, –15%.
Play 101: Cousins to Martin to give MSU it's first lead of the day, –11%.
Saturday was a day of missed opportunities. After fighting uphill all season on field position, Michigan’s offense finally had a chance to start from a strong point, and did nothing with the opportunity. Michigan’s field position for the game was worth 28 points (average offense vs average defense). Obviously they did not score 28 points. Michigan St’s field position was worth 18 points and they got 21 plus another 7 from the defense. When MSU had the ball the teams ended about equal, with MSU getting 3 more points than expected but also fumbling twice. The game was lost with Michigan’s offense, which should have gotten 28 points if they performed equally to the Spartan defense, but only netted 7. In terms of Win Percent Added, the defense was +4% and the offense was –54%.
Rush offense: +6
Pass offense: –5
Rush defense: –5
Pass defense: –2
Special Teams: -1
The grades look a bit different than the text above because the grades are opponent adjusted. It’s clear what worked and what didn’t on offense, but the play calling did not reflect the strength.
A look at how the major candidates are faring through the first seven weeks through the eyes of Win Percentage Added. Denard takes a big hit as Michigan suffers its first loss, but still holds the overall lead with over 2 full games won by himself.
Denard Robinson +2.11
Russell Wilson +1.73
Kellen Moore +1.62
Andrew Luck +1.26
Sammy Watkins +1.26
Landry Jones +1.01
Ryan Broyles +.66
Trent Richardson +.36
After a leap, Brian's favorite part, and yours.
Dumb Punt of the Week
After inspiring the feature last week but not winning the inaugural award, it looks like Ron Zook is making a push to have the Dumb Punt of the Week be named in his honor (although since it’s the B1G, do we need to people to name something after?).
Trailing by 3 in the second quarter, Zook calls out the punt team on 4th and 4 from the Ohio St 32. Of course, without the points Illinois was still down two scores in the fourth quarter when Zook went the opposite route and skipped the field goal down 10. An extra score in the second quarter would have made the decision a little easier for the Zooker at the end of the game, if he could remember the score that is.
Just like last week, 10 wins is still the most likely outcome. The numbers have shifted down, however. Just over a 50% chance of getting to double digit wins in the regular season.
Remaining game odds (change vs. prior week).
Purdue: 93% (-7%)
@Iowa: 68% (-2%)
@Illinois: 49% (+9%)
Nebraska: 64% (+13%)
Ohio St: 77% (-16%)
Change from last week in ().
My top 5:
1. Oklahoma St. (+1)
2. Boise St. (+1)
3. LSU (-2)
4. Wisconsin (nc)
5. Alabama (+1)
Other Big Ten
10. Michigan St. (+9)
14. Michigan (–4)
20. Nebraska (+12)
27. Illinois (-19)
30. Penn St. (+3)
46. Purdue (+20)
67. Iowa (-3)
69. Ohio (+25)
89. Northwestern (-22)
105. Indiana (nc)
110. Minnesota (-3)
With no game to preview, an updated look at Michigan’s individual units [Ed-M: speakers of Boston slang and gatherers of exotic facts, I hear you giggling]:
PAN, National Rank (leader), Big Ten Rank (leader)
Rush Offense: +6, 4th (Oregon), 1st
Pass Offense: +2, 34th (Boise St), 3rd (Wisconsin)
Rush Defense: +2, 27th (Notre Dame), 4th (Michigan St)
Pass Defense: +1, 48th (Oklahoma St), 7th (Michigan St)
Special Teams: –1, 90th (Florida St), 12th (Purdue)
Not seeing 10 wins at all. OSU's offense will be very improved relative to the Bauserman games, and their defense is going to give us a lot of the same troubles as MSUs.
I would also consider 2 of 3 for Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska to be very fortunate.
50/50 chance for 8/9 wins. The other possible win totals are pretty remote possibilities to me.
Thread click-through fail.