Would you (EDIT: be happy if Tate had these stats in 2009?)
Last year the composite Michigan QB's statistics were:
165 / 337
1718 yards
48% completion percentage
5.1 yards per attempt
11 TDs
12 INTs
118 rushes for 293 yards, 3 TDs.
Would you, as a Michigan fan, be happy to see something similar to the following statistics from Tate this year?
160 / 267
2091 yards
59.9 completion percentage
7.83 yards per attempt
15 TDs
3 INTs
Rushing: 173 rushes for 846 yards, 13 TDs.
These were the numbers put up last year by Robert Griffin, the true freshman Baylor QB, on a team that went 4-8. Those numbers on Michigan last year would have led to a record between 6-6 and 8-4.
So, would you take these stats in 2009 from Tate?
The word accept is a red flag on MGoBlog for a bannin'
I need to do some editing. My apologies.
Haha good edit; some people are just a little tender about entitlement in Michigan's fanbase.
Heck yes!
I will "be happy" with whatever I can get. I mean, I certainly can't go in there and do better.
Absolutely. That's 14 extra TDs... just imagine what we could have done with 14 extra TDs! Not to mention the 9 less interceptions. Tack on an extra 98 points to our season scoring total and we'd have had a pretty good season last year.
****Hi-jack alert****
I posted Griffin's numbers vs. Pryor's numbers from 2008 on another web site's forum and asked the question: Why is Pryor considered a GOD and darkhorse Heisman candidate for 2009 when Griffin's numbers were superior in every category?
Anyone want to posit an opinion on this conundrum? Is it only the fact that Pryor plays for OSU, a national title contender?
****End hi-jack****
Btw, yes, I think we would all be stoked if Tate put up numbers like Griffin (or Pryor) had in 2008 for UM this coming season.
Sounds like a good topic to post on the board.
August 4th, 2009 at 10:00 AM ^
I was about to say something along the lines of, "Maybe Terrelle Pryor has higher physical upside..." but decided to check this guy out first. Stumbled upon this:
"Baylor's Robert Griffin isn't just the most athletic quarterback in college football. He might just be the best athlete ever to play quarterback in college football. And now he's putting all his athletic focus on playing quarterback."
http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2009/04/23/baylor-qb-robert-griffin-qu…
He's considered an Olympic quality hurdler?! I don't know how someone like this could possibly be considered second to Pryor, especially considering the superiority on the stat line.
August 4th, 2009 at 10:01 AM ^
Didn't Pryor become a starter later in the season?
As well, not as much talent surrounds Griffin at Baylor as what surrounds Pryor at Ohio State ; thus more of a load was put on Griffins shoulders
August 4th, 2009 at 10:12 AM ^
I haven't seen the stats side by side, but I'd be interested in completion ratio and TD/int ratio more than the actual yards. That should be independent of when they started starting (that sounds weird) and give a pretty good indicator of their skills.
August 4th, 2009 at 11:11 AM ^
Pryor: 60.6% completion, 7.9 yards/attempt, 146.5 rating, 12/4 TD/INT. Also, 4.5 yards per carry (631 yards)
Griffin: 59.9% completion, 7.8 y/a, 142 rating, 15/3 TD/INT. Also, 4.9 yards per carry (843 yards)
They are virtually clones - Pryor was a liiiitle bit more effective passer, Griffin was a liiiiitle bit more effective runner.
August 4th, 2009 at 10:31 AM ^
... the lack of talent could also hinder his stats. Worse receivers to throw too, worse running backs to keep linebackers honest, worse line to block for him.
Just out of curiosity, how did you come to the conclusion that those QB numbers would have led to a record between 6-6 and 8-4?
I first looked at the games where the team was really just 1-2 plays away from winning:
Utah
Notre Dame
Toledo
Purdue
Michigan State
Northwestern
In the Utah game, had either Threet or Sheridan been able to sustain one more drive and get a field goal, we win.
Against Notre Dame, think of the short field ND got because of the "backpass," the non-call Matthews TD, the fumble by Threet, the kickoff fumble, the Grady fumble. Not just the QB, I realize, but everything wrong happened there. Maybe a QB with a little better rushing game in the rain would've made the difference.
Against Toledo, well, Griffin would've easily won that game with his legs alone.
Against State, Threet threw some terrible passes which directly led to the loss offensively (I know, Boo Boo and Brown didn't help defensively, but it was a tied game with under 10 to go).
Against Purdue, well, yeah, that's the D breakdown.
Against NW, Tacopants, and neither QB could complete any passes at all or run and Michigan still only lost by 7.
Also, after Threet got hurt against Penn State the meltdown occurred.
So, I see four games that competent QB play could have swung. And heck, with the other two (Purdue, Notre Dame), perhaps having a QB that could sustain drives with running and being able to convert in the short passing game would've made the difference. So, that's where I get 6 to 8 wins.
August 6th, 2009 at 10:21 AM ^
Thanks for the reply.
I like the 3 INTs part. I like imagining what a QB completing 60% of his passes at 8 yards a click would do for our running game. 15 TDs seems reasonable leaving the running corps to pick up another 30, which also seems reasonable.
Figure in some field goals and we're averaging 30 points a game. If we're scoring at that kind of pace, we've won 7 games easily. If the defense exceeds expectations we've won 8 or 9.
I agree with Dudeness that "accept" is a poor choice of words in that it implies setting a lower standard. Still, the numbers you've quoted probably are a formula for success.
I will be happy with eight wins or more. Any other stat is inconsequential.
Yup.
If we have to run 6 Fumbleruskies and 8 Tackle eligibles every game to win, that would be fine.
Just win baby...
I would be thrilled with those numbers from Tate. However, after watching the Spring Game again recently, I see how poorly the defense really played. They were scary bad. We may be putting too much emphasis on what we saw in April.
I expect signigicant pain from the QB position this season. Any improvement over last year is a bonus.
August 4th, 2009 at 10:50 AM ^
Your expectations are too low. There will be huge improvement over last year. Will it be enough to bet us 7 wins? I don't know. There will be mistakes too, along with bad defensive play, but Forcier is in a different league than Threet and Sheridan. Our quarterback play was abysmal, even for a redshirt freshman and a third year sophomore.
August 4th, 2009 at 10:05 AM ^
If Tate only throws 3 INT's, we WILL contend for the Big Ten.
As long as he protects the ball, Michigan will be good! With Minor and Brown, speed at reciever, and the experienced O-Line. Low turnovers will make the sky the limit. Health of the 2 above is just as important, if not more. IMO
August 4th, 2009 at 10:28 AM ^
I'd be happy with Tate having the exact same stats as any of our QBs last year. As long as we beat the buckeyes, irish, spartans and get to a new years day (or later) bowl game.
Edit:
Granted it may be a tall order. But I would hope that we would rather have team success to individual success.
August 4th, 2009 at 11:25 AM ^
I would be very very impressed if Tate could put up those numbers. Now, I myself don't know even if he could, but at least I have faith in him unlike my friends (one UM fan, ND, fan, Texas fan) They just keep saying he won't succeed because he's a true fresh. Now at least I have an example to back up with
August 4th, 2009 at 11:28 AM ^
For what it's worth, on CBS' college fantasy site they have predicted stats for Tate this year.
175/302 57.9%, 2268 yds. 16 TD-9 INT 136.2 rating
145 rush 609 yds. 6 TD
Personally I think that has him rushing a bit more often than he actually will, but the rest of the predictions seem accurate and exciting to me. FWIW, they have him ranked as the 29th most valuable QB in the country before he has even taken a snap.
Interesting post. Man I hope Tater performs that well. Robert Griffin had a hell of a year and although I'm not sure if Tate can match his rushing stats and only 3ints by a freshman QB is simply amazing. Terrelle Pryor's stats for 08' were very similar to Griffin's.
the OL is good enough in pass protection so that Tate doesn't have to scramble too much and wind up with 173 carries. I think around 125 carries for about 400 yards would be solid.
(Watch him run 18 times for 130 yards and 3 TDs against WMU now that I've made this prediction.)