Will Weather Effect Saturday's Outcome? Will it matter?
Looking at the forecast for East Lansing this Saturday, weather.com is showing a 40% chance of rain with a high of 54 degrees. Not sure that the weather will play a factor at all, but I have to say that if it does, I think it will work in Michigan's favor.
Michigan currently ranks 8th in the nation in rushing, averaging a little over 240 yards/game. MSU, on the other hand, is sitting at 87th with 117.8 yards/game. If things get sloppy (remember that MSU has a natural grass field), we have got to dominate. This is a big contrast to some previous years where I would have given the edge to MSU in a physical running ball game.
What's interesting when looking at the offensive stats for these two teams is that despite the big gap in rushing, MSU is still ranked higher than Michigan in total yards/game (MSU 21st to UM 30th). Believe it or not, MSU is pretty one dimensional in favor of the PASS. Meaning that their strength is passing, even though they have two QBs who have been fairly unspectacular.
I know it is not as simple as just looking at the stats like I did here, but I guess what I am trying to say is that on paper we should definitely be the favorite (duh, I know). As I said before, a sloppy game will certainly favor our running game. But even if its not sloppy and this game ends up being a pass-happy shootout, I feel good about Tate Forcier outperforming Cousins/Nichol, especially if the game is tight in the fourth quarter.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:59 PM ^
... sounds reasonable, but I just have flashbacks to last year's ND game when we had a bunch of young southern kids who looked like they were on ice and trying to handle the ball with oven mittens. MSU -- as everybody knows because they won't stop talking about it -- has kids from in state who are used to the weather.
If our young guys adapt, we're better off, if Denard gets most of the PT and looks like Odoms last year in ND...gulp.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:01 PM ^
There is some evidence that Denard Robinson's radar-aborbing dreadlocks can be compromised by rain and other precipitation, but that probably won't factor much into the football game.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:46 PM ^
Believe me, they do a lot more than absorb radar.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:03 PM ^
Doesn't passing in bad weather usually favor the offense. Throw the ball up there and let the receiver make the adjustment. It's tougher for the defense to make quick adjustments in bad weather. Honestly, I think it's all a wash between the passing vs rushing and who it hurts the most. UMs running requires stretching the play horizontally and cutting upfield and making the defender miss in space. Tough to cut when your feet don't stick.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:07 PM ^
yeah, but it is also tough to get good blocks when you can't plant your feet as well as when the soft soil may delay you from getting out to your assignment quickly enough. i doubt there's any real evidence that zone read teams suffer in the rain more than power running teams. bad weather will probably just increase the role of luck, which probably isn't a bad thing for a road team.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:09 PM ^
i don't think we scored much against ND last year in the 2H when it started raining.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:28 PM ^
we had trouble scoring in the sunshine as well, minus the Purdue game.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:10 PM ^
However, that is mitigated by the fact that the receiver is also more likely to slip/fall and the ball is harder to catch and throw when wet.
Overall, I think rain hurts the passing game more than the running game.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:06 PM ^
Just to play the devil's advocate: many of our skill players are from warmer climates and have limited experience playing in chilly weather. This was very noticable in last year's game against Northwestern. With a decrease in production from those skill players, our reliance on the OL and the defense will increase.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:30 PM ^
Does it not rain in the South? How do plants grow down there?
54 degress is not that cold (even for our players from the South) therefore we are left discussing how kids from the South adapt to playing in the rain. This affects all players (even those from Michigan) equally.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:12 PM ^
I would rather it be clear honestly. Our ugliest defensive performance was against IU in the rain. All else being equal we are the better team. I dont want the variables to change.
September 30th, 2009 at 2:04 PM ^
I wouldnt consider it rain, since the indiana game was at best a light sprinkle but for maybe one quarter it was a mist
September 30th, 2009 at 2:22 PM ^
If it rains, it takes a way a lot of the home field advantage... especially if it pours...the fans are not as in to it, it is not as loud and both teams will be playing under the same conditions.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:31 PM ^
The fans will not be nearly as into the game if it is raining outside. I'm going to the game, and while I like nice weather, I wouldn't mind it if mother nature decides to drop some water on us. Let's just hope it's not too cold of a rain... (i.e. Northwestern 06 and 08)
September 30th, 2009 at 3:08 PM ^
This is the sort of thing that might distinguish Michigan students and grads from those at lesser schools, especially cross-state rivals of lesser academic credentials.
See, e.g., Strunk & White, 4th ed., p. 45.
"Affect" = routinely (though not always) a verb; 'to influence."
"Effect" = routinely (though not always) a noun; 'the consequence of influence.'
September 30th, 2009 at 3:16 PM ^
This comment effects the affect of the Michigan Elitist.
September 30th, 2009 at 4:30 PM ^
Well crafted, presumably by a proud LS&A alum. Outstanding!
To me, the general goal is to regularly earn the right to be an arrogant elitist. I would very much like everything associated with Michigan (including MGoBlog) to operate in an "elite" fashion.
September 30th, 2009 at 5:03 PM ^
BS Chem '05
BSE ChemE '05
MSE ChemE '07
And I'm with you on this: since when is being elite a bad thing?
September 30th, 2009 at 6:47 PM ^
Even better! A Leader and Best!
Go Blue!
September 30th, 2009 at 3:15 PM ^
The most significant way weather would change this game is wind. It's been quite windy in A2 this week, but I don't think it will be on Sat. 40 mph wind makes passing plays really difficult. Everyone has to run; that probably favors us.
Rain + first time on grass this season bodes not well for our youngsters. Expect to see a lot of slipping if it rains a lot.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:33 PM ^
Good point...I think slow rain favors the M Saggies, who are used to running slow.
September 30th, 2009 at 3:21 PM ^
I wanna say it was 2005 when they put it in....
September 30th, 2009 at 3:36 PM ^
No, MSU has natural grass. Were you thinking of OSU?
September 30th, 2009 at 4:33 PM ^
passing is more difficult than rushing. That's just a theory lazy TV announcers use all the time.
If we have a wet field it actually affects the rushing game and defense more than anything.
Also it is a HUGE disadvantage to the smaller faster team. Our defense is based on flying to the football. On a slippery field that harder to do. Being 300 pounds and not moving ( big o-lineman) are not affected by the rain.
Go check any game that the Steelers have played in the rain. You will notice a significant drop-off in the defense.
So, in summary, your conclusions are wrong , rain and natural grass is a big disadvantage for us, not them.