Who are we rooting for in the Big 12 and AAC Championship?

Definitely in the UGA game. I guess Cinci as well since that would ensure a 2-3 Michigan v Cinci matchup, provided Michigan wins of course, but I'd be fairly indifferent between Cinci, Ok St. or ND (or maybe even Baylor).

Ok St. - Baylor is kind of irrelevant unless we want Ok St to keep ND out because to hell with ND, which ok sure.

The interesting thing to ponder is whether Michigan has a chance if they lose.  ESPN gives them a 76% chance to win the game and 85% chance to make the playoff implying there's a decent chance they could lose and still make the playoff.

It would be hard to see the committee putting them in over Iowa if they have the same record and Iowa beats them on a neutral field but on the other hand, it would be hard to see them moving Iowa, losers of two games to unranked opponents by more than two scores, up from #13 all the way into the top 4.

So if M lost a fluky game, Bama loses, Cinci loses, Ok St loses, Oregon loses, could the final four look like this?

1. UGA

2. ND

3. Baylor

4. Michigan

I'm not even confident ND would move ahead of Cinci if they lose.  Can you put a team that hasn't beaten a single team that you think is top 25 ahead of team with the same record that beat said team by 11 at their place?  I don't think you can.

One could make an argument that Baylor could move all the way up to #2 if everyone in front of them loses (save for ND which doesn't play) and that Iowa and Michigan could be #3 and #4 respectively.  Bama would have to get blown out though.

Cheer for Bryce Young so CJ Stroud won't win the Heisman?

Or cheer against Bryce Young so Aiden Hutchinson might win the Heisman?

This is a great point.  I highly recommend everyone texting a buckeye friend (if you must) on Saturday around game time with a "good luck in the championship against baylor tonight".  I know they'll appreciate that you thought of them.

Dead on right here.

True, the CFP 4 get $6million a piece/conference. And on the flip side I would not expect Michigan to get screwed by the refs in Indy either. 

Football Zebras has already published the list of officials for every conference championship game:

https://www.footballzebras.com/2021/11/officiating-crews-for-the-2021-college-football-conference-championship-games/

I guess you're assuming Georgia would prefer to play outdoors in Miami? I'm not sure if that is entirely true. Travel from Athens to Dallas is similar enough distance wise as Athens to Miami.

If I'm Georgia, I want the least number of variables to happen so I can use my vast talent advantages without bullshit like sloppy conditions. Last thing I would want is a downpour and shitty conditions while trying to play a team I should beat.

Of course if OSU stays at #4 then Georgia would choose Miami so it's not a de-facto home game for OSU. 

Honestly, I'd rather have OkSt win and guarantee themselves a spot than have the outside chance that a 2-loss Bama or Ohio St. jumps ND and sneaks in at #4...

I don't love the idea of playing Ok St in Dallas but they are the worst team in contention according to SP+.  At the end of the day, it's anybody but UGA or Bama for me though.

Addendum:

MICHIGAN ANNIHILATES IOWA.

Georgia pummels Alabama.
Cincinnati pummels Houston
Baylor beats Oklahoma State.

The problem with this is whether the committee decides to put in a one-loss ND that did not play a conference championship game (and lost its coach) above a two-loss Alabama (that lost the SEC championship game to UGA).  The ESPN Predictor puts that at about a 60/40 split.  (Even with Cincinnati and Ok State (and UGA and UM) winning, the odds of Alabama being chosen still remain around 20%, according to the ESPN Predictor.)  In short, assuming UGA, Cincinnati, and UM victories, an Ok. St. loss roughly doubles the chances of Alabama making the playoffs (to about 43%).  I would prefer that Alabama not be in the playoffs.

THIS.  Let's say Alabama, Iowa, Houston and Baylor all win, since the Bama win makes it harder for Michigan to get in.  You have Alabama #1 and Georgia #2, as both are 12-1 and Bama has the head-to-head and conference championship. Here's the choices for the remaining two spots: 

Cincinnati (12-1 with a loss to Houston)

Notre Dame (12-1 with a loss to Cinci)

Michigan (11-2 with a win over OSU and two losses to top-10 teams, since Iowa would likely move up)

Iowa (11-2 with a conference championship and win over Michigan but losses to two unranked teams)

Baylor (11-2 with a conference championship, a split with Ok. St, and wins over BYU and Oklahoma, but a bad loss to TCU)

Ok. St. (11-2 but just lost to Baylor)

Ohio State (10-2 and got pantsed by Michigan)

Oregon (11-2 if they beat Utah, but got pantsed by them in their other meeting and their win over Ohio State is trumped by the loss to a terrible Stanford) 

I think the choice in that scenario boils down to four teams: Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Michigan, Baylor. Baylor likely gets in as the #3 because they are the only conference champion in the group and have several good wins, including a revenge win on Ok. State's home field in the B12CG.  I think Notre Dame should still be eliminated by Cincinnati, since they have the same record, Cinci has the head-to-head, and ND's schedule is, if possible, easier than Cincinnati's (check it out, it's the Cinci loss, the neutral field Wisconsin win, a home win over Purdue, and nothing else against a team with a winning record.  Toughest road games were @ Virginia and Va Tech.).  That leaves Michigan and Cincinnati, and I think Michigan gets the nod because they are currently ranked higher, played a much tougher schedule, and would have lost to a better opponent.  So it would be:

1. Bama

2. Georgia

3. Baylor (or OK. State if they win)

4. Michigan

I actually don't think the B12 game matters much in this scenario.  The big question would be who gets picked between ND, Cincinnati, and Michigan if both Cinci and Michigan lose.