Which Michigan Football OOC Scheduling Strategy Do You Prefer?
A. Home vs. Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut (2022 schedule)
B. Home vs. Middle Tennessee State, Army, Notre Dame (2019 schedule). This also includes an away game at ND in another season.
C. Away vs. Boston College. Home vs. Notre Dame, Florida State (1991 schedule. This option is essentially home and homes across the board)
D. A hyrbrid of B & C. This option is basically a lower level P5 at home and a good/great P5 home and home. 2006 schedule was Home vs. Vanderbilt, CMU, Ball State, and @ Notre Dame. Lop off either CMU or Ball State and this is a good example of option D. Or even two great P5s on a staggered home and home schedule, essentially 1991 but subsitute a CMU for Notre Dame.
I am firmly in the option D camp. I understand that option A is our best bet of getting into a 4 team playoff. But I have come to terms with the fact that we aren’t going to beat OSU very often if at all. So I would prefer to have the annual experience of playing 1-2 good/fun out of conference games every season rather than beat up on 3 cupcakes, cross our fingers that we can win the next 8 conference games, THEN not get dong punched by OSU at the end of November. Because that scenario seems highly unlikely at this point.
Lock me into a Texas/UCLA/ND/Washington home and home every season at the very least. Then if we happen to be good enough to actually beat OSU we are probably also going to be good enough to beat a great out of conference team. Looking very forward to the game at Washington in 219 days.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:32 PM ^
The way I look at it is we're not making the playoff anyways. Lets play some interesting non-conference match-ups. 2 power 5 home and homes every year. One home, one away. The finances can work if you're bringing good teams in every year. Can jack up the prices for those games. I gave up my season tickets finally not because of our record, but because I got sick of going to watch cupcakes (Maryland and Rutgers included).
January 30th, 2020 at 5:37 PM ^
Great in theory, but then you get people complaining about losses like Utah in 2015 that kept Michigan out of a potential NY6 bid, and 2018 ND that eliminated whatever infinitesimally small chance we had at a backdoor CFP bid.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:57 PM ^
That's weird because isn't the conventional wisdom around here bowl games don't matter anymore?
You know what the easiest way is to controls one's destiny? Win the game. I'll take Utah on the schedule over MAC any day.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:50 PM ^
Pretty sure winning games beyond 8 or 9 is no longer requisite in Ann Arbor. Can't beat the better teams, no longer expected to beat them, losses to them are accepted, might as well schedule as many cup cakes as possible to ensure 8 or 9 wins and a bowl invite. Don't need to win that game either.
January 30th, 2020 at 6:13 PM ^
If you didn't get into a marquee bowl game because you lost to a team you should beat, then maybe you don't belong in that bowl game.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:38 PM ^
Yep, this is option D and I whole-heartedly agree with you.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:38 PM ^
The way I look at it, fuck what the fans want to see, what's best for the players?
Developmentally: playing tough teams
Draft Exposure: playing nationally televised games
Personal Experience: playing in iconic stadiums or interesting parts of the country
Until the argument that NCAA players should be paid and treated like pros actually wins out, let's at least try to treat them like student athletes.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:06 PM ^
Developmentally: playing tough teams where starters have to play the whole game with a higher chance of injury.
Draft exposure: I’m pretty sure when you play at Michigan you already get that. Also playing in a nationally televised game in Happy Valley, the Horseshoe, or at home where they are undefeated and it’s college game day.
Personal Experience: Do any of the SEC or ACC players care about playing in historic venues? The answer is no because winning is more important.
If you don’t like being a second rate program then things have to change. Scheduling cupcakes sure looks like it works for Bama and Clemson.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:13 PM ^
Works for Bama, but Clemson does schedule D.They usually play a top/mid tier P5 team (Texas A&M) and a mid/low P5 (South Carolina). They can just win out otherwise b/c the ACC is a cluster.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
I just want them to schedule games I want to see.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:56 PM ^
I just want them to be in a playoff game.
This is the right strategy.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:23 PM ^
Michigan won't be in the CFP until they start beating ohio.
January 31st, 2020 at 9:43 AM ^
An 11-1 Michigan with a loss to OSU would have a chance at the playoffs. Especially if osu stumbled and uofm still went to and won the big ten title.
Anyone who doesn’t want 3 easy games is a LOSER. I believe we can win a national title. But we have to believe ! If we played in the ACC like Clemson, then yes I would be for 1 hard OOC game. But we play in the big ten ! The schedule is plenty hard.
January 31st, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
if osu stumbled and uofm still went to and won the big ten title
Right now, ohio v M is the last conference game of the season.
So if M makes the conf champ game AND loses to ohio, that means Ohio has 2 losses going into the game. That's going to happen anytime soon? Hmmm. It's happenend twice in the last 19 years.
Michigan isn't making the CFP with a loss to ohio even if they are conference champs. It would be something like Oklahoma, 2 SEC, and Clemson then.
January 31st, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
A three way tie is realistic. Anyway, 11-1 without a conference title is still a very strong resume.
January 31st, 2020 at 3:28 PM ^
I don't disagree.
But the topic was about M making the CFP with a loss to ohio.
Not that 11-1 is a nice record.
Which I'd be cool with, I went to the Rose Bowl in '07 and am itching to go again.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
Problem is I don't think you can afford option D - you mention recreating the 2006 OOC by removing one of Ball St or Central - that doesn't take in to consideration it will be removed in exchange for a 9th B1G game. IMO schedule a low P5, a MAC school and Grand Valley fucking State the Saturday before Ohio State.
Edit to add: This is the OOC slate I would use if optimizing for the smoothest path to CFP. If you're saying screw that, and schedule who you want, regardless, then by all means marquee opponents obviously provide more fun games and matchups. I am in favor of keeping ND as a more regular opponent, and was bitterly disappointed when we canceled VT and UCLA. The obvious implication of this type of scheduling, is that we will see more 9-4 type seasons than the 10-3 we're averaging now, but if we're not beating OSU anyway, what difference does it make, really?
January 30th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
According to Forbes, the Wolverines come in behind two teams from Texas and ahead of both Alabama and Ohio State. With $127 million in average revenue from the 2014-2016 seasons, Michigan is actually tied with Alabama, but they have a higher profit margin which puts them ahead; $75 million to $59 million
January 30th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
To clarify, I didn't mean "afford" in the literal, cost sense (in fact, scheduling home/home series and neutral sites may actually be more cost efficient than paying a small school to come up for a game), but rather in terms of strength of schedule, where you would now have 9 conference games, and 1 game vs an equal/marquee opponent, compared to 8 B1G games+Notre Dame previously.
January 30th, 2020 at 6:15 PM ^
^This comments brings up an interesting question. Should Michigan move to this model? Or do B1G rules prohibit scheduling OOC games after X date?
Granted Michigan is H.O.R.R.I.B.L.E (emphasis added) coming off of bye weeks but this is a tactic that the SEC has been using for quite some time to hedge against a loss.
January 30th, 2020 at 6:23 PM ^
The B1G schedules conference games, so they setup those dates for the schools. Plus if Michigan would get a bye before OSU, they would do the same for the Buckeyes too.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
C
Take on the best. On that early-September Saturday, I'll care much more about a compelling Michigan game than trying to job the system by having an easy (and extremely boring) nonconference slate.
I mean, we lose to Ohio State every year anyhow, so we might as well let loose and have some fun. Bring on LSU, Oklahoma, Bama, Texas....
January 30th, 2020 at 5:36 PM ^
I agree, but threads like this on this board always make me weep, because the "schedule all cupcakes because that's what the ESS-EEE-SEE does" crowd come out in force.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^
I prefer whatever will get us to 15-0.
January 30th, 2020 at 8:48 PM ^
Then they should drop the "leaders and best" mantra if they prefer to take the path of least resistance.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^
i am ok with one tomato can, one mediocre P5 team, and one top 20 program. i was looking forward to visiting friends at the ucla game. well, that's gone.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:44 PM ^
Yep, option D. I'm right with ya....
January 30th, 2020 at 5:53 PM ^
Cupcakes, creampuffs and pushovers...the same teams Alabama schedules
January 30th, 2020 at 6:43 PM ^
No sir Alabama just makes it look like they’re playing cream puffs and pushovers. Since 2012 they played the following schools OOC:
Michigan
W. Virginia
Wisconsin
Virginia Tech
USC 2x
FSU
Duke
This doesn’t even include the quality schools they’ve beaten in National Championship or Playoff Games
January 30th, 2020 at 8:16 PM ^
You do realize none of these teams were good and they were “neutral” site games conveniently in the south?
January 30th, 2020 at 10:44 PM ^
Outside of Duke all the other teams were ranked when they played them. And like I stated above...it is not like they don’t show up in playoff and National championship games against elite competition.
January 30th, 2020 at 11:20 PM ^
2012 Michigan 8-5 finished ranked 24th
2013 Virginia Tech 8-5 finished unranked
2014 W. Virginia 7-6 finished unranked
2015 Wisconsin 10-3 finished ranked 21st
2016 USC 10-3 finished ranked 3rd,5th
2017 FSU 7-6 finished unranked
2018 Louisville 2-10 finished unranked
2019 Duke 5-7 finished unranked
So outside of 2015 and 16 they didn’t play anyone. They are all pretty much home games for them. They do show up in the playoffs. It’s not that hard when you only have to get up for a game 2-3 times a year especially when you get a cupcake before rivalry week. So if you’re saying that you want Michigan to schedule middling P5 teams at Ford field, Lucas Oil, or soldier field I would be down for that. 2 cupcakes 1 before OSU week.
January 31st, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
I stated “when they played them” they can’t control what happens to the team after they lay a beat down on them
January 30th, 2020 at 5:57 PM ^
Fact of the matter is that if you want Michigan to play tough non-conference games, you have to come to grips with the fact that 2-3 losses are going to be the norm. A tough non-conference schedule coupled with a tough division/conference isn’t a recipe for success.
Take this year for example. We played 6 teams that finished the year ranked in the top 15. 5 in the regular season, three of which were on the road. You know how difficult it is to beat five top 15 teams? Beat three of them on the road? On the off chance you do well enough to win the division you’re looking at another top 15 matchup, plus another in a bowl game. In that scenario you’re looking at 7 of your 14 games being against top 15 opponents. Win a playoff game and it’s 8 of 15
The elite recruiting teams that pull all of the 5 stars can pull that off. And just because they can, doesn’t mean they do. Michigan isn’t in that tier though. If getting TO that tier is the goal, you’re making that uphill climb even more steep by scheduling tough non-conference games. If you’re in the “9-3/10-2 is unacceptable” camp, then scheduling like that is just not realistic.
January 30th, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^
yep, I've come to grips. now give me some fun fucking games to attend. because at this point I will continue to go to LSU @ Texas rather than Colorado State @ Michigan. Bums me out....
January 30th, 2020 at 6:45 PM ^
...Or I don’t know, we could just win those games.
January 31st, 2020 at 7:13 AM ^
Except obviously we can’t. And odds are, we’re going to lose at least two games when you schedule that many top games. Michigan plays 5-6 games a year against teams of equal or greater talent. Going undefeated or one loss against that, isn’t a realistic expectation. Michigan doesn’t recruit at the level to be able to do that.
Which is fine if you’re in it for the entertainment value. But if you’re in the camp of wanting to fire Harbaugh for winning 9-10 games every year, then. Scheduling like that is incredibly stupid, and you’re setting the program up for your definition of failure. Plain and simple.
January 30th, 2020 at 5:58 PM ^
There’s no benefit of playing top teams in the playoff era. I say schedule a low level power 5 or an interesting group of 5 like Houston or Boise St or Cincy or whatever teams happens to be on the rise. I liked having UCLA and VT on the schedule. They were interesting matchups that were also likely victories. The current schedule is fine too but doesn’t particularly move the needle a lot. Seriously the MSU/OSU being home/away in the same year is terrible. That should be an immediate fix in the next scheduling plans
January 30th, 2020 at 6:18 PM ^
Yes there is. You get to attend fun games, that's the benefit.
We are not making a 4 team playoff, so give me fun fucking experiences that I will always remember over the 1 in 100 chance that we can get into a 4 team playoff then probably get our asses kicked in the semi. thanks.
January 30th, 2020 at 7:00 PM ^
If you think losing to a top 5 team is bad...losing to Boise or Houston would be worse. Play fun games, have Gameday there and ppl talking about the program all week. Rather have that than a nailbiter vs. Army. As far as the B1G schedule, all the top 4 programs in the East have it split like that. For example when PSU has Michigan at home they play MSU/OSU on the road; When OSU has Michigan at Home they play PSU/MSU on the road. So if they have to deal with it, we should be able to handle it too.
January 30th, 2020 at 9:29 PM ^
Yeah the B1G screwed us when we got rid of the weird divisions we had 6 years ago, sparty got an extra home game against us and put us on the road every other year with OSU and sparty. But I don't fear sparty any long, it should be an easy road win in E. Lansing. MSU is now a tire fire program. I'm almost more fearful having WI and PSU on the road in the same season because often these are two loses and we always seem to lose to OSU at home or on the road so that one does not matter much.
January 30th, 2020 at 6:05 PM ^
I'd recommend playing an easy non-conference schedule right now... Why? Because it affects recruiting. When you lose to Notre Dame when you lose to Utah when you struggle against army people recognize it (media and recruits because of the media). Look at Ohio state's schedule last year out of conference it was actually pretty easy by the end of the year nobody gave a crap. If we lose at Washington to start 2020 that's all you're going to see about Michigan all over ESPN is how Jim harbaugh can't win the road game Jim harbaugh and Michigan can't win the big game they can't beat good teams! It's too much negative press in my opinion and right now I wouldn't want to play anybody with how our conference schedule set up nine games playing Ohio State and playing in one of the most difficult divisions if not the most difficult division in college football. I'd want to play Ball State Arkansas State and nobody else that's any good really. Take three HOME games the beginning of the season to build your confidence and develop your rhythm and find out who you are before you play Penn State and Wisconsin and then go on the road to play Michigan State and Minnesota. I know this isn't a popular opinion because everyone wants to say they want to play the best but the truth is the way it's going now you can play the best at the end of the year ? look we played Ohio State and Alabama to finish the season this year. When you play Ohio State Penn State Michigan State Wisconsin and Iowa and Notre Dame and Alabama in the same season... That's a lot of good football teams... Hell why not just add Washington and Minnesota to that schedule what a nightmare! I've been a Michigan fan for 30 years and right now I think what we need is a little rhythm a little confidence an identity particularly on offense! We also need some positive press something like an explosive offense and not losing to Ohio State by 30 points... A few 5 Star recruits would really help!
January 30th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^
When you lose to Notre Dame...
But what about when we beat Notre Dame?
January 30th, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
That's good that we beat Notre Dame (unfortunately we're not getting credit for that by the media)! But that's all you took out of all of that I said? I'm just saying we also lost to Notre Dame as we lost to Utah and could very well lose at Washington. I'm very well aware that we beat Notre Dame I left that part out because I thought that was self-explanatory man. Also... To hell with Notre Dame ?
January 30th, 2020 at 10:41 PM ^
And recruits will be enthused to come see us play UCONN???? Big games mean big time atmosphere and awesome times for recruits. So with that logic you should want to play bigger games
January 31st, 2020 at 3:00 AM ^
I must have missed the big-time game Clemson or Alabama played last season out of the conference for those recruits to enjoy.
Clemson
-> Texas A&M: 8-5 with a bowl win as well as wins against Texas State, Lamar & UTSA.
-> Charlotte: 7-6
-> Woffard: 8-4
-> South Carolina: 4-8
Toss into the fact that Clemson didn't play a ranked ACC opponent until the ACC Championship game against #23 Virginia.
Alabama
-> Duke: 5-7
-> New Mexico State: 2-10
-> Southern Mississippi: 7-6
-> Western Carolina 3-9
Ranked Conference games against Texas A&M, LSU (Loss), Auburn (Loss).
At the end of the season, no one is looking at who you played in August or September, everyone is counting the number of wins on the schedule. The Big Ten is already at a disadvantage in playing 9 conference games. Michigan looks at the bowl game as a missed opportunity for a screwed up season. The Clemson's and Alabama's look at the season as a warm-up for the playoffs so why go all out and risk a bad loss much better to use the cream puff schedule and lofty 10 or 11 wins to attract recruits.
January 30th, 2020 at 6:08 PM ^
I hate that Michigan is paying teams not to play them. I get why then are doing it (money and CFP) it just sucks.
As a fan of Michigan football, I wanted to see the games that they have cancelled or will cancel soon *cough Texas *cough.
Option D
January 30th, 2020 at 6:13 PM ^
Michigan doesn't have the luxury of knowing if the conference will be strong or weak overall when they are making these schedules a few years out.
If they did, I would vote for A when the conference is strong, and B or C when the conference is weak.
As a general rule, the conference is usually at least fairly strong, so I would vote A.
January 30th, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^
Cup cake city every year is my choice. At the end of the day its all going to be about winning the Big Ten (and winning the Big Ten gets you in the playoff if you don't have 2 losses) and the OOC schedule makes absolutely no difference. 2015 Iowa played a really weak schedule, but they would have been in the playoffs had they beat MSU in the conference championship. Wisconsin has been in a similar positions as well over the years. Sure its fun to play other big time programs, but its a heck of a lot more fun to win and be in the title hunt so why risk that by scheduling a game you very well could lose?
Playing an easy OOC schedule allow you to work out any kinks, experiment with play calling and personnel, and, most importantly, get guys in rhythm and playing with confidence heading into conference play. That makes a ton of sense to me, especially considering the strength of the BIG East. If we ever beat OSU and win the conference, its going to be extremely hard for the committee to keep a 12-0 or 11-1 Michigan team out of the playoffs no matter what our OOC schedule looks like.
January 30th, 2020 at 10:56 PM ^
Our OOC was weak this year leading into B1G play...and we got thrashed in Madison. What kinks were worked out? Wisconsin has scheduled Bama and LSU twice recently in the past few seasons and have home and homes set up with Bama, WSU, ND(Green Bay & Chicago) in the next six years. So even the Badgers are not taking it easy with the OOC schedule.