Which Coach(es) Get Fired First This Season?
In light of yesterday's thread on the board regarding who you all think would be the next pick for new head coaches after this season, I will pose this question: who do you think gets canned first this upcoming season? Got a few choices to choose from:
Gus Malzahn - probably the top choice. Minus his first season, his teams have consistently underwhelmed given the talent he's brought in. Even when they beat Alabama in 2017, they fell apart in the SEC title game and in the Peach Bowl. Another 8-5 year could be the end of this guy.
Willie Taggart - may be a bit unfair for him to be on this list after only one season, and he inherited a bad situation from Jimbo Fisher. But still, there was more than enough talent on last year's team to at least make a bowl game. If they fail to make another bowl game this season, he may be on his way out.
Clay Helton - got to imagine Helton is on his last life, too. A really underwhelming season last year and almost getting canned anyway. I imagine if USC can't at least make the Pac-12 Championship, with probably having the most talented team in the conference, he's gone.
Lovie Smith - a few miserable years in Champaign. Wonder how much more they're willing to take. They seem to be going nowhere fast under Lovie.
Chris Ash - Same story as Illinois. Maybe Rutgers is willing to hang on for another year, because they've improved little by little each year. But I imagine this year has to be bowl or bust for Rutgers.
Brian Kelly - I hesitated writing his name because he's won plenty of games the last two years and made the playoff, but still doesn't change the fact that a lot of the ND faithful just don't like the guy. And especially with Urban Meyer suddenly becoming available, if ND thinks it has a chance to lure him to South Bend, I wonder if they tell BK to just hit the road. Especially if ND stumbles a bit with a much tougher schedule this season.
That's all I got. Who you got for being canned first?
ND should not hire Urby, Per my ND guy.
Ryan Day, of course.
Replaced by Jim Tressel
Helton will be fired after they lose their third game of the season. I predict that will happen @Notre Dame (Stanford and Washington will be the first two)
They could lose to BYU and Utah too by then.
Matt Patricia.
If only.
But, he's a disciple of Belichick! He's destined for greatness! Lions to the Super Bowl!
Chip Kelly and Willie Taggart
Taggart getting the FSU job after going 7-5 at Oregon was really bizarre. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go if FSU misses a bowl again. Also, Malzahn's mediocre performance has been surprising to me, but I guess some guys are just much better coordinators than head coaches.
I think FSU will win 9 games this year, but fans are going to want Taggart gone after they lose to Boise in week one. Stay the course, Noles - there’s still talent there, Taggart is a good coach, and the ACC sucks. Wins will come.
Brian Kelly - no way since he has taken them to two playoffs appearances.
Chris Ash - eh small improvements and who else is going to want to take that job.
Lovie Smith - eh maybe higher chance then Ash but who really wants that job? MAC coach probably but I don't seem them doing a whole lot better then like 8-4.
Willie - if they don't make a bowl game its possible, but I'd say they give him one more year.
Gus - yeah he has been on thin ice for awhile.
Clay - gone, especially if USC thinks they can get Urban.
Erik Bakich.
In all seriousness, it's not Kelly. Minus an 0-12 season with a major scandal he's not gone after a 12-0 regular season with a playoff appearance.
I also don't think Lovie is gonna be gone. Illinois fans seem pretty realistic about where they're at right now so as long as Lovie wins a game or two more this year (very possible with the schedule/transfers they have coming in), he'll be fine.
I also think the Taggart survives. Last year was pretty much worst case scenario, a rebound back to average/bowl eligible probably saves his job one more year.
The rest of your list makes sense. I'd add:
Justin Fuente - Barely made a bowl game last year and first losing season in 20+ years. If VT doesn't improve in year 4 I'd say he's gone.
And if we wanna go G5:
Randy Edsall - UConn is an abject horror.
Mike Bobo - 3 straight 7-6 seasons was already a little disappointing at CSU. Going 3-9 last year probably would have sealed his firing if not for the health issues before the season that could be pointed to as a factor. If there'a no major improvement this year he's gone.
Illinois total buy outs for coaches and AD is up around $10 million for this decade. I expect that will make Smith getting fired this year unlikely.
but won't they keep helton through the season, while they negotiate with urban liar?
Those names crossed my mind too as evidenced by the post I made two minutes after yours. I lose.
Helton goes to make room for Liar.
I can't believe how bad Illinois is at hiring coaches
You say this now, but three years ago (or whenever it was) that he was hired, everyone here thought it was a great move for UI. They got a (ahem) Super Bowl coach fresh out of the NFL. Seemed like a slam dunk for U-Ill, even if he wasn't considered a 'great' coach. He was actually in play for the Lions job, and a lot of Lions fans wanted him! (I wasn't one of them...)
"everyone here thought it was a great move for UI."
Everyone? Bullshit. And those who did are idiots.
Don't think many of those 'everyones' lived in Chicago and listened to Chicago sports talk bash Smith when he was the Bears coach
I know I thought it was a "good" move, and for the same reason most others did: Any guy Illinois can get was going to be a risk, so you roll the dice on a seasoned NFL coach whom you know has great experience and knows the game and hope he figures everything else out. As good a thing to try as any. Are NFL coaches sure things in college? No, but neither are guys on staff at slightly bigger colleges. Illinois has such a bad program that they can't hope to get the best and the brightest.
Who would want the Illinois job? Their stadium is pretty crappy. Better than Northwestern’s and not by much. At least Northwestern has put a bunch of cash into new team practice facilities on the shore of Lake Michigan. It looks beautiful. Illinois can only offer scenic views of corn and wheat. Their facilities are pretty mediocre. They need some financial help and the amount of payouts ongoing to former coaches, etc. doesn’t help.
The bar is pretty low for Lovie this season. Win a few more games and stop giving up 45 points per game in conference play. Lovie is now the D coordinator, so he’s owning it. He’s finally got his guys playing who are upperclassmen. They started a lot of freshman two years ago. He knows what he needs to do to survive and Illinois is in no condition to buy out another contract or pay top $$ for a new coach.
I think Clay Helton will.
I actually think Paul Chryst could get axed if they miss a bowl game, which is probably not going to happen but wouldn’t be shocking. I have them at 6-6, and I legitimately thinks he’s a bottom four coach in the league.
I don’t know what Narduzzi’s leash at Pitt is like. Yes, they made the conference championship last year, but it was because they were the shiniest piece of trash in that dumpster division. He’s 12-14 over the last two seasons. If they miss a bowl this year, theyd basically be .500 over his five years, and he could be in trouble.
I'm surprised to see Chryst mentioned. I just checked his record at Wisconsin -- .77 winning percentage (total and conference games), two top ten finishes in his four years there, and has won all four bowl games. They also have a very highly ranked QB recruit who is a freshman this year.
He coasted off Bielema’s roster in a garbage division for the first few years. He’s such a bad coach. Now, there’s a lot of variance in the West, so they might only be a couple bounces from 8-4 or even 9-3, but that seems unlikely to me. Now that Minnesota is good, Nebraska is coming up, and Northwestern and Iowa are tough outs, I think Chryst’s actual ability is on full display.
They also have a super tough schedule this year - 5-7 is not out of the question at all. There are 9 individual games where it wouldn’t be a massive upset for them to lose any one of them.
I think this is a pivotal year for Chryst. 7 wins or fewer and another loss to Minnesota and I think Chryst’s seat is pretty warm.
He certainly feasted on a bad Western division. And last year was a pretty big departure from his previous seasons though I recall they had a bunch of injuries at thin positions and Hornibrook seemed to regress. You may be right about this year being pivotal for him, will show if he can reload with his own recruits and how he stacks up against the new coaches in their 2nd years.
Overall, I think the West will be very interesting to watch and they may need to go to the 5th or 6th tiebreaker to determine the champ.
It will be very close. I don’t think enough people are talking about Minnesota. Don’t be surprised if they’re in Indy in December.
Pretty sure Gary Andersen came after Bielema so you can't really say that Chryst has coasted off of him.
Though I will say Wisconsin is trending down a little. I think Nebraska and Minnesota are both getting better and Iowa and Northwestern will remain their consistent selfs.
You are right. It was Anderson that came before Chryst.
I'm with you. No idea where Doc is coming from. Chryst's first 4 years were better than Bielema's last four. If the criticism is he's riding the previous coach's players, well, he's doing a better job of it than Bielema did. That hardly supports the notion that he's a bad coach.
42-12. Two NY6 bowl games. Fire Bakich.
Watch him coach a game and the decisions he makes. He is mind boggling. He’s going to have the worst OL he’s had since he’s been there this year, and a passing game likely to be as bad or barely better than last year’s. Let’s see how he coaches around this - I don’t think it will go very well.
He’s been very lucky with schedules, opponent strength, talent inherited, etc. I think his luck is running out and his ability is on display now. If he rips off 9-3 or better this year I will readily admit to being wrong, but watching that dude coach a game is painful and I think that program is really trending down.
Just think about who was coaching in the B1G then vs. now. Think about who was serving postseason bans and who was trotting out Luke Fickell teams. Gary Andersen never played Michigan nor MSU in his two years. Think about who got Probation PSU and who drew flamethrower Joe Moorhead PSU.
And Paul Chryst caught what break? Transition Nebraska? Is that it?
I've seen plenty of Wisconsin games. I was in Madison two years ago when Brandon Peters died. That really doesn't mean anything, this just reminded me and that was fun. But I haven't seen anything out of Chryst that makes him any weirder than any other coach. I watched Urban Meyer ignore Ezekiel Elliot in a full rain storm. I watched him call a failed fake punt from his own 10. Coaches do wacky shit.
Chryst has averaged 10+ wins per season at Wisconsin. He's not getting fired. Putting him on the hot seat is bold.
Chryst routinely (not once like Meyer) takes the ball out of the country’s best RB’s hands. He routinely makes insane decisions to punt on 4th and short from inside his opponent’s 45. He’s a worse in-game coach than Franklin, it’s just been masked by an easier division and a (previously) stellar OL.
You’re right that Chryst probably won’t get fired this year. But, let’s say they go 5-7 with losses to USF, Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, Nebraska, one of Iowa or Purdue, and Minnesota. Chryst would then be 13-12 over the last two seasons, with two straight losses to a rival they hadn’t lost to in 14 years. They’re now clearly on a different trajectory than, not only Minnesota, but Nebraska, and probably both Purdue and Northwestern in that division. Chryst’s seat has to be getting hot at that point.
Buddy, Jonathan Taylor had THE MOST carries in all of FBS last season. The most. Nobody had more.
(**Edit: Just for fun, nobody in the NFL had more carries either despite playing two more games. Stupid Paul Chryst. Give him the rock!)
Good talk. We'll see what happens.
Having the most is not the same as having enough. Conflating the two causes you to call plays like Paul Chryst.
Wisconsin lost five games last year. The teams they lost to ranked 18th, 23rd, 28th, 43rd, and 83rd in Rushing S&P Defense. Wisconsin’s OL ranked 1st, 1st, 31st, 1st, 11th, and 2nd in the major run blocking metrics.
By pretty much any POV, Wisconsin had the best run blocking and OL in the country last year, and the best RB, and they lost 5 games to teams ranging from just inside the top 20 to awful against the run.
Wisconsin’s run-pass profile should have looked like a service academy last year. They didn’t run JT enough.
Edit: Deleted. Getting irritated and that's not necessary.
Again, we'll see. (<-- This is code for "Let's agree to disagree")
Honestly guys this subthread is a terrific example of substantive forum debate with both sides providing good facts to back up their arguments. I hope neither of you will get too irritated here because it's a great read.
I like your points because I was thinking Wisconsin was falling back to the pack a little bit.
I was terribly surprised how little Wisconsin tried to run the ball against Michigan in the second half last fall. Wisconsin was in position to win but decided to pass on several occasions where a first down running was almost guaranteed. It appears to me that Chryst botched the play calling in the second half and as I recall the announcers agreed with that idea. He also misused his timeouts.
Having a new QB may actually be a benefit for Wisconsin if that's the case. Similar to Nick Ward's injury changed MSU's lineup for the better, not trusting his QB may make him run Taylor and the other RBs more.
Wisconsin is pretty patient and he had 1 bad year. He’s pretty safe and an alum. He can have that job as long as he doesn’t string together too many bad seasons in a row.
I think the expectations he set up for himself will ultimately doom him. I agree that it will take multiple bad years in a row, but part of the reason I mention him is because I thinks they’re hovering around .500 this year and next.
But when he left, every MSU fan said he will be back to continue Mork's success! At this point I sure hope he does, I don't think (to lazy to look) that Mork has developed a large coaching tree.
LOL!!! You can't develop a coaching tree unless you cycle through coaches from other programs. Mick cycles his coaches through the various in-house positions, not other programs.
Lol. I am waiting for his Butler to be the next OC.
Most others already discussed so I’ll add a couple new:
Matt Luke is probably gone at Ole Miss.
Chad Morris is only entering his second season but 2-10 will not be accepted again. I would say less than 5 wins and he’s gone.
What about Pat Narduzzi? Four years of basically .500 ball, three bowl losses. He’s been very blah and I bet Pitt is wondering if they could do better. Edit: Dr. Toboggan beat me to Narduzzi.
I don't know if I'm sold on Luke being gone at the end of the year. He is only in year two and they have been devastated by the sanctions from the NCAA. I can't imagine them being able to pull in the kind of candidate they would want at this current time.
Does Ole Miss have a qualified interim HC candidate if Luke gets fired?
Lovie Smith - a few miserable years in Champaign. Wonder how much more they're willing to take. They seem to be going nowhere fast under Lovie.
I don't get this take. Yeah, Illinois sucks. They've sucked since the 1 or 2 good Zook years. They haven't been consistently not crap since the late 80s/early 90s. And even then "not crap" had multiple below .500 season with the occasional decent year. They've brought in a bunch of big name transfers from USC, Alabama, UGA, and Michigan. At least two former 4 stars and a 5 star from USC and Michigan alone. I'm not saying Lovie is a good college coach, but they're Illinois. It's not like there are a bunch of Jeff Brohm types in the G5 level who would take that job with others sure to open up.
The ND fans who hate Kelly will hold their noses so long as ND remains nationally relevant, which they are. If they didn't fire him after the 4-8 season with the other issues he has had (scissor lift, being an insufferable ass hole, etc) then they won't fire him on a whim without a decent reason.
Rutgers is a dumpster fire so who knows what they'll do. Ash doesn't seem to have any idea how to get them out of the hole, but I don't know that anyone does. They pulled in some transfers as well, though I don't think that will help a ton.
Helton is at the edge of the cliff and USC has fired guys mid-season before. They have 4, maybe 5 losable games to open the season.
I think Taggart gets 1 more year.
Auburn is hot and cold. Ready to jettison Malzahn 1 minute and then he beats Alabama and saves his job. I don't think that happens this year and he's gone unless the buyout is still huge.
Edsall should be fired at UConn. Fuente can't recruit and VT won't be able to compete with Clemson anytime soon.
Didn't the Rutger faithful think Urban would funnel the not-quite-good-enough-for-Ohio-Staee-players to Ash?
With Urban gone that lifeline of stupidity is done.
Ash is toast.