What to Make of ESPN's CFB Playoff Predictions (Michigan Third Best Chance)??
What do you all make of recent ESPN articles saying Michigan football has a good chance (#3 in article linked below) of making the playoff this year? I saw another ranking that had Michigan as #5. Summary excerpt from the article:
"The Wolverines have failed to reach the playoff thus far, but they are in a better situation now than ever before in the playoff era. Coach Jim Harbaugh is bringing back eight starters on offense, including quarterback Shea Patterson, who tied for eighth in Total QBR a season ago.
The result is that FPI expects Michigan to have the best offense (and team) in the Big Ten, catching some of its division rivals in what could be a down season. Ultimately, Playoff Predictor thinks Michigan has a 41 percent shot at the playoff. However, it's worth noting that FPI is awfully low on Ohio State -- maybe even too low -- because it isn't explicitly aware that the Buckeyes have added via transfer an elite quarterback prospect in Justin Fields (transfer QBs are noted in FPI only when they have significant starting experience).
On the other hand, a new head coach-QB tandem does increase variance for Ohio State, and when you're at the top, variance is a bad thing. No team is in better position than Michigan to seize the reins of the Big Ten and take advantage if the new crew in Columbus doesn't work out right away."
I know it is "way too early", but I'm having trouble reconciling this hype with what I've read on this blog and what I've observed in past years. Maybe I am Reek and Ohio State is my(our) Ramsay, but this narrative just feels too familiar...
You can probably look at our discussion yesterday about it.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
Though to be fair, this OP is far superior in its content than the one from yesterday.
I think I commented yesterday, but that was a while ago sooooo
Didn't realize this was a thread yesterday. I guess I'm not hawking the message board as well as some of you. MY BAD.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
A simple, 'oops, didn't realize it was posted yesterday' reply would probably be returned with some light-hearted, funny jabs. Unfortunately, it appears your pride won't let this incident be your fault. The 'hawking' comment and the bold 'my bad' present you as an angry, unsettled, miserable person.
My advice, believe the phrase, 'your ego is not your amigo'. There's freedom there. Cheers friend!
April 18th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
Thanks, though I am neither angry, unsettled, nor miserable. I was just annoyed that a simple double post because I didn't read the message board yesterday results in a series of snarky comments. I don't think that makes me a bad person. People don't have to comment if they already saw yesterday's post. I would have deleted mine if possible.
April 18th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
You will always get snarky comments for posting a topic that remains squarely on the front page of the board. That's just... standard Mgoblog. Best to just accept it and strive to do better next time!
April 18th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
"a series of snarky comments" to which you responded with....a snarky comment.
A simple, 'oops, didn't realize it was posted yesterday' reply
That's not how the board works. :)
Don't get pissy about it. Take your lumps and move on.
Thoughts and prayers. Fortunately, your OP can't be negged.
Wait.
Is this yesterday?
April 18th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Maybe... are you still angry with Reggie?
Thats right, woodchuck-chuckers - it's GROUNDHOG DAY!!!!!!!
As always, OSU will stumble early/mid, but by the end of the year their youngsters will be seasoned and their piece of shit team will be a well oiled machine.
They are just recruiting too damn well :(
April 18th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Until Harbaugh's Michigan team beats a team that's clearly more talented and adequately coached, I can't understand the rosy predictions.
The closest that Harbaugh has come to beating a clearly better team was his year 1 loss to MSU. That was an extremely well coached and planned game. I hope we get some more of that next year.
I think the offense will be remarkably different, and perform better against top defenses. Even within the context of an old school, heavy formation, Pro/power running offense, the creativity just shriveled up and died in seasons 3 and 4.
Of course, the defense won't be nearly what it was last season, and that may cost us an upset if both sides of the ball have a bad day simultaneously. But, the defense hopefully won't have to be what it was last season.
Michigan could have run away with the 2017 OSU game with just competent QB play. Unfortunately, we got, um, well, (checks notes again), (advises self not to do that again), not that. As it was, Michigan had the ball with something like 3 minutes left and a chance to win.
Hate to admit it but you're probably right.
Truthfully, I still don't think we would've won that game if Haskins didn't come in.
I will believe it when I see it, and still not even then probably!
April 18th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^
Not much.
Also, yesterday.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^
I make nothing of it because advanced models have predicted Michigan to the CFP several times and well, we all know how those instances turned out.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
What do you make of Lucy placing the ball down while Charlie Brown lines up to kick it?
April 18th, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
Shouldn't you be at the dollar store buying Columbus Bluejacket gear?
I'm from Pittsburgh, so ... maybe?
That's not exactly heading in the right direction. Well played nonetheless.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
I think I'm tired of the hype.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:30 AM ^
Nothing
April 18th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
It is getting really difficult for me to tell you apart from your brother...
April 18th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
If we keep creating threads about it, then it will definitely come true!
April 18th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Bait to be clicked.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
I have been one of those people that said wait until 2019 when the schedule aligns with the talent and Harbaugh's system is fully in place. Well, it's 2019. Borrowing from another poster's former avatar, choo-choo mother fuckers. Let's go.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
I think having a returning and very talented QB is driving this. I can hope, but 41% is insane, should be around 6 or 7 IMO. We lose a ton on D, have a new offense to break in, and lose a few players on O too. Depth is a concern and we have some injuries too.
Considering we haven't won the conference in 15 years, 41% is pretty crazy, but I'll take it.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
Quick Rehash on the state of the B1G East in 2019:
Michigan: returns a bunch of starters on offense, a moderate amount of starters on D. Offense to be modernized, but a senior returning QB with 3 top flight WR's and 4 quality o-linemen is reason for optimism. Defense could be top 10, or only top 40. But in Don Brown we trust.
Ohio State: returns an okay amount of starters, mostly on a D that wasn't great. New coaches everywhere, new QB who wasn't around the year prior (like Dwayne Haskins was), and must replace majority of the o-line. They get benefit of the doubt because they're Ohio State.
Penn State: presumed starter at QB looking to transfer, either way they're breaking in a new QB. Coaching staff mostly the same, lot of good talent, but whether a disappointing OC from last year can kick it up a notch despite losing a great QB is a big question. Defense should be good though.
Michigan State: Defense will be top 10, if not top 3. Loaded and coached well. Team goes as far as the offense takes them. But who knows, given that Lewerke looked mediocre at best last year (possibly due to playing injured all year). But the backup QB still didn't usurp him despite injury, so ???. Shuffled the deck with the coaching staff, which doesn't inspire confidence. Lost some impact players at WR (which was probably the only functional part of their offense last year). Could win the East, or come in 4th.
Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers are what they are. Maryland may bump off a contender or two if the coaching turns out well.
Based on all that, it's not unreasonable to say that Michigan could win the division. But so could either of the other 3 big teams. This year could be the most open the division has been in a while, or Ohio State could keep chugging along as they tend to do.
April 18th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^
I think OSU's offense will struggle (relatively speaking) this year. I would bet a lot of money on the defense making a 180 degree improvement.
April 18th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
I'm not disagreeing with you as you have a far more intimate knowledge of the OSU roster and staff than I do, but I'm genuinely curious what makes you think the defense will make a 180?
April 18th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Because OSU has a 4 or 5 star starting and backing up every single position and they haven't had a coach who is willing to put them in a position to succeed for three years.
OSU's defensive adjustments under Schiano were limited to "execute better." The defense was way too complicated, and put way too much responsibility on the linebackers to be perfect.
Say what you want about Mattison, but at a minimum he's going to instill fundamentals and knowledge into the players at a level that Bill Davis and Greg Schiano just didn't. I don't think you'll see OSU's linebackers pick the wrong gap half the time anymore. I don't think you'll see OSU's secondary completely forget how to contain the edge anymore. And preseason hooplah caveat aside, everything you hear out of spring practice suggests that OSU's defensive philosophy has been simplified a ton. OSU has enough jimmies and joes to not have to worry about the Xs and Os being complicated.
OSU has enough talent that if everyone just plays sound, assignment football, they'll improve measurably. That's it. They don't have to do anything flashy or fancy. OSU's defense was pretty good like 75% of the time last year. On a per play basis they were really good. The other 25% of the time they would blow a gap or miss an assignment and someone would score a 75 yard touchdown. This happened like 20 different times last year.
Fix that, and I expect OSU's defense to be significantly better. It shouldn't be that hard to fix either. Literally no one else in college football had that problem last year, and literally everyone else in college football had worse defensive talent than OSU did.
Yeah. Fuck Mattison.
April 18th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
#Mattisoneffect
April 18th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
I said this yesterday and I badly want to be wrong but I don’t see Michigan’s defense in the top 40 unless it’s one of those, “statistically top 40 but can’t actually stop a decent-to-good offense when it matters”
Hopefully I’m overreacting to the last 2 games but I think last year’s defense didn’t live up to the hype and this year’s will be much worse. Injuries could really suck even beyond that.
April 18th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
In my opinion, as long as the defense isn't a sub top-30 unit, we'll be fine there. To me, it's more important in the current football landscape to be able to put up points. Oklahoma made the playoffs with the 84th ranked defense. Ohio State won the B1G last year with the 26th ranked defense. Michigan State had the 2nd overall defense last year, and they scraped by to a 7-6 record.
Ohio State has had a better offense than us (according S&P) every year going back basically since the early Tressel years. The one year we were ranked higher offensively, by a good bit? 2011. Meanwhile, we've had the better defense for almost every year Harbaugh has been here, and it hasn't helped us. Also, Ohio State's worst ranked offense of the last few years? 2016 - the year they lost to Penn State and almost lost to us. We were only a few spots behind in offensive S&P. In my opinion, I'd rather have a top 10 offense (or top 5 like Ohio State the last 2 years) than a top 10 defense.
April 18th, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
Uh, that Michigan is a sure bet to make the playoff. Duh.
April 18th, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
At this point, my focus and hope and dream and desire is for Michigan to beat OSU. Michigan could win all their games but OSU, they could even (theoretically) play for the Big 10 championship, but until and unless they beat the Buckeyes, it is all for naught.
The other thing, imhe, is to just shut up about it. Let the players and coaches burn and stew and plot and plan internally. I really don't want any shooting off at the mouth until Michigan is regularly winning and competing against OSU. Look at the record since 2002. It ain't pretty, and a rare win every ten years or so is nothing to open your mouth and brag about.
Regarding ESPN, it is click bait. They know there are a ton of breathless hopeful Michigan fans out there. No way is Michigan #3 and OSU #12. Get that money off your back first, before you talk about playoffs.
April 18th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
In the words of Dave Chapelle: "The old ESPN Michigan playoff contender trick, eh? Not gonna fall for that shit."