What are your (un)realistic expectations for the defense this season?

Submitted by canzior on September 13th, 2023 at 3:02 PM

Looking at this schedule and the absolutely HORRIBLE offenses on it, how many opponents do you think can actually score double digits? 

BGSU, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, MSU, Purdue...  

Any of those get to 10 points?  Do you think there will be any shutouts this season? 

Mich averaged 17 and 16 ppg in 21 and 22 respectively...do you think they'll do better this year?  And by how much? 

FYI 2021 Georgia was 10.2  while Illinois led the country last year at 12.8. And 2011 Bama had an absurd 8.2 ppg.

Buy Bushwood

September 13th, 2023 at 3:56 PM ^

Once conference play begins, I expect:

Rutgers:  A passing yardage Rutgers

Minn:  A passing yardage Rutgers

Purdue:  A rushing yardage Rutgers

Indiana: Screens for diminishing yards

MSU: A total yardage Rutgers

Nebraska: 9 turnovers for the Nebraska offense

PSU:  Rushing ineptitude and Allar running for his life. A couple sad FG's

Maryland: A rushing Rutgers and broken QB

OSU:  Lots of 3rd and short passing, because Grant/Graham/Jenkins look like rolling boulders, Will Johnson has more receiving yards from McCord than Harrison Jr., a fully uploaded Hausman gets a side gig as a stunt double for The Flash, and Sainrastil's 4th Qt "they're spineless quitters" speech is turned into a hip-hop song.  Final score, 34-16

The Homie J

September 13th, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^

I imagine this makes Michigan among the most annoying teams for Vegas.  The first string easily covers the line, but then the depth players go in and wreck it.  I know other teams also use their backups, but Harbaugh in particular has a knack for absolutely dumping the bench on the field during any non-competitive game.

brose

September 13th, 2023 at 6:01 PM ^

Funny thing - when I played HS varsity football (pre-internet), my first game they gave the team orange slices at halftime...I was a Junior as was like WTF are they giving orange slices for?  I looked around and everyone was just eating their oranges, like nothing was weird...I thought I was in the twilight zone or on candid camera - I didnt know this was a thing.  Anyways, I dont know what the point of my post was. 

Amazinblu

September 13th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^

My unrealistic and unachievable expectation is that the defense leads the team to a 16-0 record this season.

And, the turnover Buffs are worn by at least three different players every game.

I'd be quite content with a 15-0 record.

Go Blue!

VintageRandy

September 13th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^

We could blank Nebraska just since they are so inept and have a turnover machine of a QB, but if we’re rolling through the schedule we’ll just continue to sub so much on D that there will be plenty of sad field goals and Defeated With Dignity drives. I could see like 13.5 ppg and top 5 SP+ finish. 

matt1114

September 13th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^

Honestly, I think 0 shutouts. Seems like we play more 2nd, 3rd string guys late in the game which will lead to garbage time points for opponents. Both ECU and UNLV were basically shutouts. 

1989 UM GRAD

September 14th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^

Agreed.

But I think what a lot of people are missing is that ECU and UNLV actually scored on the 3rd and 4th string defense.  

Anyone on the two-deep (1st and 2nd string) is getting quite a bit of run right now in the 1st-3rd quarters.  There are 20-25 players getting significant snaps on defense...before the bench gets emptied out late in the game.  

I'm guessing that might tighten up a bit at certain positions as we get in to the competitive portion of the schedule.  

Midukman

September 13th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^

I expect better stats. Basically we’ve been playing a team full of garden gnomes the first two weeks and our 1’s allowed nothing. But, we’ve also been without arguably two of our best defenders. Graham and Grant are gonna be an unstoppable force this year and Jenkins is Jenkins. 

TeslaRedVictorBlue

September 13th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^

Id like to know how they expect us to outscore Bowling Green by 40, when we can't seem to get enough possessions and get a 3 TD lead and then go into snooze mode? 40?! 

I would like to see us full strength. More TFLs and turnovers are what we need.

mickblue

September 13th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^

If they can be as good or nearly as good as last year,, I would be thrilled. Because the offense could be unstoppable. That combination could be good enough to run the table and win it all.. 

RealElonMusk

September 13th, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^

Slightly better than 2016 but scoring numbers will likely be worse because the coaches (wisely) are more concerned with getting 3rd & 4th guys reps rather than having a shutout.

This is one of the areas that SP+ fails because different teams have different approaches.  For instance, tOSU will try to hang 100 on people and never pull their starting QB while Michigan is focused on winning, keeping starters healthy, and developing younger players.

 

J. Redux

September 13th, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^

This is one of the areas that SP+ fails because different teams have different approaches.  For instance, tOSU will try to hang 100 on people and never pull their starting QB while Michigan is focused on winning, keeping starters healthy, and developing younger players.

SP+ ignores garbage time.

SC Wolverine

September 13th, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^

Our problem with keeping scoring down to this level is the offense + the 4th quarter.  I.e., the likelihood that our second/third team plays much of the fourth quarter is high.   And they do give up points.

TheDirtyD

September 13th, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^

9 PPG against  No QB hits 300 yards passing. 
 

Graham and Grant are talked about on next years line with the returning edge pieces of being a generational defense. Just in time for the onslaught of the new B16

M_Born M_Believer

September 13th, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^

Best defense since '97 and it all starts up front there with Jenkins, Graham, and Grant.  Match that up with Johnson and Moore (who, BTW, have yet to play) and the defense will be impressive...

Blau

September 13th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^

Given the weak ass Non-Con schedule, I think the defense can't afford to give up more than ~17 points to any team besides OSU, PSU, possibly Maryland, and whoever they would play in B1G championship without going undefeated. Fact is, perception is everything when it comes to the CFP committee and anything less than a perfect record is going to weigh heavy on their minds. Hell, Bama/UT, OSU/ND, and FSU/LSU all have signature games they can point to whether they lose or lost their marquee matchups earlier in this season. 

As for specific expectations, it's probably best to create some more turnovers, sacks, and keep a deep rotation among the DLs and DBs to instill some fear amongst opposing offenses as the season goes on. Sounds rudimentary but if this forces offenses to become more one dimensional towards the run or pass, that's one less battle they have to fight.

brad

September 13th, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^

My unrealistic expectation is that our very, very good defense will show up in two playoff games and slow those two opponents down enough to allow us to win the title.  Too many vaunted M defenses have shown up to a bowl game and gotten handled for this to be a given, but that's what we'll need to get over the hump.

MGoNukeE

September 13th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^

The starting defense drives me and my family to CedarPoint for a day filled with fun and thrills. Kenneth Grant wins my child a stuffed animal because the worker can't guess his weight accurately.

jhayes1189

September 13th, 2023 at 7:30 PM ^

I expect us to be better in PPG because we look more solid at each level of the defense than we did to start last year or 2021. Especially at the LB position, but I am pretty blown away at how well the mostly second at string secondary has played. 
 

Also, due to how well the secondary is playing, and how Sainristill has taken dudes under his wing…I am all for a Clink becoming our D coordinator when Minter likely takes a head job in the next year or so, and then of Mikey doesn’t work out in the NFL, he should have an open door to come and be on the UM staff. 

uminks

September 13th, 2023 at 10:53 PM ^

Overall, I think the D will be better than last season. Looks like this team is better at DT and LB. Secondary may be slightly weaker. DE are still an unknown. I think stat wise, playing a bunch of weak offenses, we could have a top 5 defense by the time we play PSU.