Week 10 Odds/Lines for Big Ten and CFB Competition
From CBS Sports, no line published for UM & RU.
I assume Ohio State, Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan will take care of business on Saturday without too much struggle. Maybe PSU sleepwalks a little but we need them to win out.
I think we want Tennessee to beat Georgia and win out. Bama and the rest of the SEC West have at least one loss already. A second loss would almost certainly eliminate that side of the conference. UGA would still be sitting there with 1 loss but wouldn't have played in the conference championship game. That hasn't stopped the CFP committee in the past (Bama '17) so who knows.
If Michigan wins out, they'll be in regardless but in the scenario above, we would want Clemson and TCU to remain unbeaten to keep a second SEC team out of the 4 team playoff. Would the committee have the nuts to put a one loss team ahead of 2 undefeated power 5 teams? I have serious doubts that Michigan would get in with 1 loss due to SOS and no CCG if there are 2 or 3 undefeated teams at the end of the season and some SEC teams with 1 loss.
Anyway, looks like a great slate of games in week 10, Go Blue!
October 30th, 2022 at 11:29 PM ^
Curious why there’s no line for our game yet
October 30th, 2022 at 11:30 PM ^
No need to root for PSU, fuck ‘em. UM has to beat OSU to get in.
October 30th, 2022 at 11:38 PM ^
I think it will take 2 losses to keep the SEC from getting 2 in. Bama could find their 2nd against LSU or maybe in the conference title game... I think they find it, though.
As for Tennessee-Georgia, it's hard to see either losing a pair. I expect both to get in.
October 30th, 2022 at 11:58 PM ^
Generally agree, but it may also come down to the SEC championship game. If the east winner loses to Alabama, then Alabama is in. Then you have 1 loss Georgia and 1 loss Tennessee.
One of those will be top 4. If Clemson and tcu lose, there is the very real spector of three SEC teams in the top 4.
October 31st, 2022 at 8:53 AM ^
Might be better odds that the SEC gets 3 than only 1
October 31st, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
If the east winner loses to Bama, it would obviously be worst-case scenario because it gives all three a chance to get in.
But Bama would be first in, then the winner of Tenn-UGA would be the next team in. Loser of that game would likely not get in but would be close depending on whether there are undefeated ACC or B12 champs which would get in first.
An 11-1 Michigan team would be in a similar boat but with less chance without a truly marquee win (no, home v PSU or Illinois doesn't count). We'd need chaos in the ACC, B12 and Pac12 (ie two+ loss champs in each).
October 30th, 2022 at 11:47 PM ^
Just adding to the OP - Michigan is 24.5 point favorite according to Draft Kings.
October 31st, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
I'm seeing Michigan -26.5 now on Bet365 (whatever that is).
October 31st, 2022 at 12:07 AM ^
Beware the Iowa offense. They scored on every drive but one against Northwestern on Saturday. Which is to say that line for NU vs OSU is not big enough.
October 31st, 2022 at 12:08 AM ^
Do something useful, Notre Dame.
October 31st, 2022 at 12:36 AM ^
Clemson by 4 pts
just like all their 1 score wins over Syracuse Forest College the last decade.
October 31st, 2022 at 12:42 AM ^
Wow, Tennessee disrespected with that Georgia line
October 31st, 2022 at 1:41 AM ^
Damn you, MSU! I can’t even make a “it’s spelled disrespek” joke now.
Michigan State: Sucking the Fun Out of Life since We Were the Original MAC-tion.
October 31st, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^
I think Tennessee is going to be in for a rude awakening. Georgia can play D and I wouldn’t expect the Tennessee WRs to be wide open like in most of their games this year. I would strongly lean toward Georgia -8
October 31st, 2022 at 7:57 AM ^
So general rooting interests we all going for LSU, Tenn, ND? Would be great for ND to win a big game and knock out clemson.
October 31st, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
Def LSU and ND. I'm not sure about Tennessee though.
It's best if the East Champ beats Bama in the SEC title game and I think UGA has the better chance to do that. If Tennessee wins, they'll have punched their ticket already. And I don't like them to beat Bama on a neutral field. So that'd already put two SEC teams in, with UGA sitting there at 11-1 with a beatdown of the likely PAC12 champ and only a loss against another playoff team.
Whether that's enough for the playoff, I dunno know, but it's definitely a better resume than a theoretical 11-1 Michigan team.
October 31st, 2022 at 9:03 AM ^
Should be an exciting weekend of football!
Agreed that it's tough to see Michigan getting in with a loss unless both UM and OSU just go scorched-earth the rest of the season and play a close game (and every other domino falls just right).
October 31st, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
I’m not sure why we’d want an unbeaten Clemson or TCU. If either of them are unbeaten, they’re going to make it in and take a spot. You’ve never had an unbeaten P5 champion left out and I doubt it starts this year.
I think what Michigan needs is:
1) Whoever wins the Georgia-Tennessee game, they need to win it convincingly and in blowout fashion. A lot of folks have both Tennessee and Georgia in right now, but you’d want one of them to lose something like 49-17 so the committee can look and say with some aura of confidence that one of them is not a top-4 team.
2) Alabama needs to lose. A two loss team has never made it in, and you do not want a desperate one loss Alabama team making it to Atlanta and knowing it’s season is on the line. Look at what happened in the SEC title game last year.
3) Clemson needs to lose. Come on, ND, if there is ever a time for you to do anything this season, this weekend is it.
4) Hope TCU can lose somewhere along the way. It’s possible with upcoming games at Texas and Baylor, but if they win out, they’re in.
5) USC needs to stumble again somewhere.
6) If all these things come to pass and Michigan loses a close, hard fought, back and forth game on the road in Columbus, it’s possible they could sneak in at 4. But let’s just make this easy on ourselves and win in Columbus. If Michigan does that, and then beats Illinois again, they’re in. No ifs, ands or buts.
7) What we do not want to have happen is the loser of the Georgia/Tennessee game finishes 11-1, and then the winner loses to Alabama in the SEC title game. Then you’d have an 11-1 and two 12-1 SEC teams, and the very real possibility of putting three SEC teams in.
October 31st, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
TCU has been living dangerously all season long. I think they'll get their one loss and be eliminated.
Really have to root for ND this weekend because Clemson is not going to lose to anyone in the garbage ACC.
USC's defense has been awful all season long and I think UCLA will get them.
October 31st, 2022 at 10:25 AM ^
USC does have a bad defense, to be certain. But Caleb Williams helps make up for that and then some. I watched that game against Utah a few weeks ago, and he had several plays that looked eerily reminiscent of Pat Mahomes. I would not want to face that guy in the Rose Bowl, should that be where Michigan ends up.
UCLA could beat them, but then do we also need to worry about a 12-1 UCLA team making it in? Hopefully not, because they did get their clock cleaned by Oregon and needed a last second field goal to beat South Alabama, but they'd certainly have a case.
October 31st, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
Sounds like the OP is rooting for the easiest possible four team CFP in the event that Michigan beats OSU, rather than rooting for chaos and the potential for Michigan to get in at 11-1.
And honestly, it's probably the right way to look at it. More likely that we beat OSU than the kind of chaos happens that we would need to backdoor our way in. Just didn't play a difficult enough schedule.
Best case scenario is this final CFP ranking:
1. 13-0 Tennessee
2. 13-0 Michigan
3. 13-0 Clemson
4. 13-0 TCU
Actually, that doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of happening either. I wonder if a one-loss Clemson would get in over the loser of Tenn-UGA. Or a one loss TCU the perhaps avenges their one loss in the B12 title game. Would be close.
October 31st, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
SEC is getting 2 in again. It’s a near lock.
The only necessary thing is a competitive Tennessee- Georgia game. If it’s close and the loser wins out, they are in a great spot.