We HAVE to talk about B1G West...
My gawd... seriously?
On Final Drive, they said -- so I assume it's true -- that no one in the B1G West controls its own destiny. With two games to go! This is nonsense.
Nebraska just lost a game 34-3 with 146 yards of total offense.
Iowa just won a game 24-10 with 146 yards of total offense. (Let that roll around your brain.)
Northwestern, of 1 win all season and none on U.S. soil, was only mathematically eliminated yesterday.
When we paste those guys in 2 weeks, which one of these teams do I want to play in Indy? It won't matter for CPF; if we go 13-0, we're in regardless of who we play. I don't fear Iowa again (and again). I'm pretty sure I won't fear Illinois again (esp. if C. Brown is out, that looked bad @ end of game). Purdue is probably the scariest, but, that's a relative term. Minnie, maybe too, b/c they play like us--run a lot, good D. Wisconsin has no O.
I think Purdue will come out of the West, but, ask me in a week, I'm sure I'll have a different view of it.
November 13th, 2022 at 9:13 AM ^
Pick a meaningless B1G West game on 11/26.
One of those teams plays Michigan. One plays OSU.
Then Michigan and OSU play in Indianapolis.
/s
November 13th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
Beat Illinois.
November 13th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
lol, I just joked about this.
It would almost certainly guarantee both teams getting into the CFP.
The committee has been consistent in its existence that the "extra data point" matters. Meaning 12-1 is better than 11-1. Which wasn't always the case in the BCS. Where in the BCS, if you went to your conference championship game and lost it was like the death penalty.
The CFP committee values your 12th win over a team who didn't get it.
So, in theory, this would work assuming both teams won their next two games en route to Indy.
November 13th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^
While that is a superb idea bamf_16, I think the preference would be to play OSU outdoors in the elements vs indoors in a controlled environment.
November 13th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
I’m okay if we don’t!
November 13th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
Beat Illinois...
November 13th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
This is not an academic debate either when it comes to Michigan's fate. Just read ESPN prediction on the CFP final four and they are dismissive of any chance Michigan has of getting in with one loss because nobody in the West they played will end up ranked.
November 13th, 2022 at 9:27 AM ^
ESPN will always find some logic to put two SEC teams in the playoffs. It's unavoidable.
November 13th, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
You misspelled “three”
November 13th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
Good. Let's avoid putting a 1-loss Ohio State team in the CFP.
November 13th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
That's because Michigan doesn't have the resume of a CFP team with a loss to Ohio State. They'll have one victory over a ranked team, Penn State (and that was an impressive win). Ohio State has a better chance because they beat Notre Dame.
If Michigan makes it with one loss, it's a pure football judgment. The people in the committee room will need to determine that Michigan is one of the best 4 football teams.
November 13th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^
Let us say we played UCLA and we won. UCLA shit the bed. Or we played ND and we won. Committee will say that we don't look like a complete team because we can't throw deep balls. It does not matter. The teams that have been there before gets a benefit of the doubt and if UM gets in twice, they will too. If it is a SEC team, no other stats are required. You just have to be competent. Committee applies their logic that is convenient for them. By the way, UCLA game would not have mattered either given they lost yesterday. ND beat an overrated Clemson team and that matters a lot to the committee.
November 13th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
Actually, ESPN was even more unbalanced in their logic. They were specifically comparing Michigan to TCU. This despite the fact that TCU played a worse (by record) set of pre-conference teams and may end up with only one competitor (Texas...and that is a maybe) ranked at the end of the year. Yes, ESPN is showing their bias. Fact is that if TCU loses another game, they are a weaker candidate than Michigan for a final 4 spot. I think LSU, USC and TCU losses in the last 2 weeks / conference championships..should put a Michigan that has a competitive game against OSU into the final 4.
November 13th, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
That is an argument that I can get on board with, but the committee will still have an easy out with TCU as a 12-1 conference champion if they want to use it.
November 13th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
I mean… I kind of agree? We had a pretty weak non-con, our West crossover games will have been against decent but not great teams, and the east is pretty shitty too outside of OSU, us and PSU. More so than in typical years. You can only play the teams in front of you but if the best two teams we face all year by far are OSU and PSU I think we should beat them to deserve a spot in the playoff.
November 13th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
Looking back, TN wins are looking worse every week. The one competent team they played creamed them. But I assure you that it would not matter to pick TN
November 13th, 2022 at 11:32 AM ^
I have my doubts about TN and think UM should get in over them, but the statement that they played one competent team is a reach. They blasted a top 7 LSU team and snuck by a top 10 Alabama. That's what would get them in. UM blasted a top 14 PSU and so far, that's it.
November 13th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
TN's wins are much better than ours if we don't beat OSU. That is baked in by now.
If the choice is between 1 loss TN and 1 loss Michigan, the committee is going to pick TN.
There is no scenario where they can pick both, that would lead to an all-SEC/Big Ten CFP, and it would leave two conference champions behind. That is not politically viable. Especially now that the SEC and Big Ten are perceived as trying to take over all of college football.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
Respectfully disagree. I think it looks more probable than not if TCU loses a game and the PAC 12 champ has two losses, the committee will come back with 2 SEC East and 2 Big Ten East teams for the playoff. Ratings would be through the roof for all games, regardless of who wins the semis.
November 13th, 2022 at 3:18 PM ^
Clemson would have to lose as well or else they'd be in.
November 13th, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^
Tennessee played and beat LSU, the winner of the SEC west pretty handily. They beat an admittedly down but not bad Alabama team. I’m still skeptical about Tennessee because of their D, and to a lesser extent OL and running game.
When it comes to résumés they have a better one than us if we don’t beat OSU. I won’t even bring rankings in as that will turn into a whole other SEC bias argument on its own.It sucks but it’s true.The B1G is not great this year by any means.Two elite type teams at the moment and a flawed but good team in PSU. After that it’s not great Bob.
I would be more annoyed at TCU or USC getting in over us than TN honestly as I really do believe we’re a solid tier above them at the least.Trust me I want to just hate on Tennessee and the SEC but with the way the committee operates and the results so far it would make sense and be kinda difficult to be upset about it.
November 14th, 2022 at 6:22 AM ^
Yep, it’s hilarious to hear TN fans talk abo if their record of ranked wins. KY sucks and got beat by VANDERBILT(!), Bama is so average, their brand is keeping them ranked decently; Pitt is no longer ranked. LSU is actually their best win, but I think the LSU hype is also super inflated and will be seen when they play Georgia.
November 13th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
They are dismissive of Michigan’s chances because of overall strength of schedule and in this case lack thereof. A win over what should have been UCLA would have gone a long way. As it stands, an 11-1 UM would have to get in based on “eye test” alone rather than resume. If the comparison is 11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Michigan, and 12-1 USC then UM stands no chance of winning that debate against either team based on resume.
November 13th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
UM stands no chance of winning the debate, not just based on resume, but also based on the fact that we deliberately dropped UCLA to get an 8th home game against a creampuff.
It was not a normal scheduling thing where you have come up with a schedule years in advance, and you have no idea who is going to be good or not. This was a known schedule against a quality P5 team that we deliberately undermined to get an 8th home game.
There is no way the committee wants to reward that kind of behavior, and they are right.
We did this to ourselves.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Minor mitigating argument (that likely won't be accepted) is that we couldn't get the return game from UCLA because it was scheduled to occur after UCLA becomes a conference team.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
I agree, although what's so impressive about USC? They have multiple one score wins against meh teams, and have lost to the best team they've played. I agree they'll get in over us if we both have 1 loss but I don't see that happening. I think they'll lose to UCLA next or whoever in a championship game.
Their schedule only looks harder because they play ND who is ranked for some weird reason. So far they have played 1 ranked team and lost. It's weird how critical the talking heads are of Michigan's schedule but not USCs.
November 13th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
Agree, but if they win out they'd be a 1-loss conference champion which would give them the edge over whoever loses The Game, and probably Tennessee too.
November 13th, 2022 at 10:28 PM ^
I think USC has a couple upcoming losses though, to be honest.
November 13th, 2022 at 9:51 PM ^
Exactly this. And I refuse to reverse my own logic about the SEC and use the eye test to justify our teams inclusion. The eye test is exactly what most who support the playoffs want to avoid. It’s how the SEC gets 2 playoff spots out of 4. The eye test is just code for “it just means more down there.” It’s the most (only?) subjective form of selecting teams,
November 13th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
I agree that we have to beat OSU to reach CFP, and OSU might have an outside chance if they lose to us by a small margin. The problem of BIG is the imbalance btw two divisions with the big 2 locked in the final game of the regular season that neither fanbase were willing to forego.
with addition of USC, it is an opportunity to re-install of the balance, and let us out of playing the little brother every year.
November 13th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
they are dismissive of any chance Michigan has of getting in with one loss
Why are we speaking of remote possibilities like that? We're not losing.
November 13th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
I like the way you think.
Let the "Can we still get in with one loss?" thing be an 11 Warriors topic.
November 13th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
They said UM has a "resume problem."
November 13th, 2022 at 9:32 AM ^
I don’t fear any of those teams but I would prefer not to face Iowa’s defense again.
November 13th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
I would prefer not to watch Iowa’s offense again.
November 13th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
It's gotta be the worst division in the power 5 easily. You have to wonder if the upper half of the fun belt is better than them
November 13th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
double post
November 13th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Cue Kool Moe Dee’s, “The Wild Wild West.”
November 13th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Here is I think a superior idea. Get rid of the championship game and the ridiculously unbalanced divisions that rewards mediocrity or worse in the BIG West and either add an extra game for every team a la the conference showcase suggestion so often discussed or add another non-conference game against a Power 5 opponent to provide some meaningful conference strength yardstick. Go back to the old way of determining a conference champion based on standings for which a 10 game schedule ought to provide enough data points in most instances.
November 13th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
I don't think the rules allow another game for all teams. Extra game is only for championship game participants.
November 13th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
What exactly will the NCAA do if the Big Ten says screw that rule? SEC schools are playing glorified high school teams, and somehow that's better than playing a ninth conference game. Yup, rules. You don't do anything because the NCAA has a rule.
November 13th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
I would not mind seeing them go back to an 8 game conference sch. I know that extends the time between seeing West opp., but it would give you 4 non-conf. games to schedule better matchups. Assume there will be a hard look at a shake up when USC and UCLA join in '24.
November 13th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Just play your 12 games and then head straight to the postseason (playoff or bowl), like we did for a century.
November 13th, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
This is the right answer. Play 12 games, get rid of conference championship games and expand the playoffs to 8 teams. That is conference championship games get replaced by 4 first round playoff games.
You can debate whether to limit each conference to 2 playoff participants or not. The benefits would be wider participation, you could set up brackets to avoid rematches unless teams from the same conference both make the finals.
November 13th, 2022 at 5:10 PM ^
I vote for promotion/relegation within a single division. Every two years, the top half of the conference by total record over the previous two years is placed in one scheduling pod, and the bottom half in another, and the next two years they all play each other in conference. Remaining conference opponents (“crossover games”) are assigned based on who has played least recently. The strongest programs all play each other, so no need for a conference championship. Just play 10 conference games, with M-OSU moved to the first Saturday of December, so students are actually in town.
With 10 conference games and 16 teams, you get three crossovers. So every team should play every other team home and away within three two-year cycles, although certain rivalries should be protected in case the teams wind up in opposite pods. Since the strongest programs are in the same pod, teams that wind up near the top of the conference will likely play each other; ties among teams that don’t play each other go to the team with the tougher conference schedule.
this avoids the back-to-back M-OSU problem caused by losing divisions, and also makes for a stronger conference schedule for the top teams, so fewer games for M against the Rutgers and Sparties of the B1G.
this will also never happen because teams like IU will never agree to go from having a guaranteed M or OSU home game every year to possibly missing both for four years. Oh well.
November 13th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
In Diaries, dankbrogoblue laid out the various scenarios for every team in the Big Ten Worst.
November 13th, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
Thanks. I didn't include the link because it was only a click away but, your impulse is right, to add it.
November 13th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Barrassing.
NO one will be ranked from that division. Iowa will have the best shot at going to the BTT game again and that offense is so bad, I can't even make a reasnable analogy to describe it.