Visualizing Michigan's Offense and Defense After 7 Games
After the beatdown of Penn State, where our guys put up the most points and rushing yards that the Nittany Lions have given up all season, I started wondering how well the Michigan offense and defense stacks up against the season averages of our opponents. Here are the results for those that are interested. I'll present them without much discussion. I'm curious to hear your thoughts.
The data are from ESPN and the individual game logs at https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/
Points Per Game
The below graph shows the points per game (1) scored and (2) given up by each opponent. Each graph shows:
- the minimum and maximum points
- the average points per game (circle)
- points in the Michigan game (diamond)
So the top graph shows the minimum and maximum points for each team throughout the season so far, the average points per game, and the points they earned against Michigan's defense.
The bottom graph shows the minimum and maximum points each team has given up so far this year, the average number of points scored against them per game, and the number of points they gave up against Michigan.
Michigan's defense has handed 6 out of the 7 opponents the lowest scoring games so far this season. Offensively, we've dropped the highest number of points on 4 of the 7 opponents.
Yards (Total, Passing, Rushing)
The first graph shows Michigan's defense against the opponent's offense.
- the minimum and maximum yards for each opponent's offense throughout the season
- their opponent's average yards per game (circle)
- yards against Michigan's defense (diamond)
The second graph shows Michigan's offensive production against the opponent's defense.
- minimum and maximum yards given up by each team
- average yards given up per game (circle)
- yards given up to Michigan's offense (diamond)
Penalties
Just for the fun of it, I wanted to see how "cleanly" each team plays against Michigan compared to their season averages. This has been the subject of debate for some years, as teams always seem to have many fewer penalties when they play Michigan compared to their season averages would suggest they should have. Again, each graph shows:
- minimum and maximum penalties against each opponent throughout the season
- average penalties for each opponent (circle)
- penalties against opponents in the game against Michigan (square)
It seems that teams do generally have fewer penalties against Michigan than we should expect based on their season averages. Maryland, Hawaii, and CSU stand out, though it really wouldn't matter much in these games.
I also added Michigan State to each graph. Any predictions for where the diamonds will be if I were to remake these graphs after Saturday's game?
Any other thoughts?
Go Blue! Beat Sparty!
October 24th, 2022 at 12:10 PM ^
This is cool, thanks for sharing. The points story on both sides of the ball is pretty compelling
October 24th, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
It is, but also I think you are giving PSU offense credit for the pick 6.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
Their lowest score so far is 7.... I suspect they'll score a few more than that.... I'll say 17....
they've given up 29, 39 and 49..... I think we'll put up 37
37 Blue.... 17 lil bro
October 24th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
I'd like to see something like 45-10, but I'll take 37-17.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
56-13
Harbaugh and team are going to drop one of those revenge specials a la the Rutger 78-0 game back in 2016
October 24th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^
It won't happen but a 95-0 would be cool to honor Tuck's contract.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:38 PM ^
I would like this! However. Rutger 2016 spent the entire summer crowing about their fenced garden, swatting at Harbaugh's camps, organizing a direct competitor camp, talking about how they were going to beat Michigan because of their fenced garden, and invited 200+ recruits to the game because they wanted them to see how good Rutger would look when beating Michigan.
Chris Ash had that ass-kicking coming to him. In contrast, MSU hasn't really said or done anything outside the 'norm' of them being little brotherly asshats.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
Nice work! It always helps to have visual representation of data. The penalty data is problematic because that is beyond the players' control. It would be worth doing a deep dive to see if this is a multi-year trend if anyone has the time.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
Yeah, the penalties are difficult. It would be best if I could break the penalties down by type. I don't really think false starts, offsides, etc. are the problem. But it would be nice to see, for example, the average # of holding, PI, etc. calls for each team, and then the number against Michigan. I think those have been the major source of complaint over the years.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
Judgement penalties over a decade against vs the national average.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^
There was a chart posted (last week?) that show the number of offensive holding calls. Michigan was the only outlier up and to the right (meaning we got called for holding while our opponents did not). Everyone else was close to even for calls against them vs. those against their opponents.
Crazy that this has never regressed to the mean.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^
Bonus points for anyone that can guess which team put up the most total yards and passing yards against Iowa.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
It seems to me that there is still a "lot left in the tank" for both O & D. My guess would be, the team would like to execute some of that "stuff in the tank" prior to the last two games of the season.
So, what does it mean for fans? I think we may see some "more creativity" in the play calling and schemes over the next three weeks. And, fortunately for us - two of those three games will be played in Michigan Stadium.
Go Blue!
October 24th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
I'm going to guess that if we're effectively running the ball right down their throat, like we did vs PSU.... that's what we'll do all game long. If we aren't running on them, at will, then you might see some new wrinkles..
Jim is a fan of bully ball and although the whole "three yards and a cloud of dust" gets ridiculed, its still very effective, provided your drives end in points (preferably 7 at a time and not 3).
Control the ball, clock and score.
GO BLUE
October 24th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^
Booted,
I agree with you. The only caveat about your comment would be - some of the receiving routes that they'll call.
I hope this is a run heavy game because of the associated score implication. Ground and pound, pick up first downs and "sixes" (instead of threes, as you noted) - protect the ball - control the game. As always, it's quality of execution.
Go Blue!
October 24th, 2022 at 1:31 PM ^
It would be delightful to have us dial up a scripted opening drive to score through the air, because that's precisely the opposite "key" to the game that MSU will have been focused on this and last week.
After that, and keeping them honest about the threat of the pass, leave it on the ground and "bully ball" them all night.
October 24th, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
Would love to see some sort of quantitative data on this, but it’s my hypothesis that getting absolutely paved by a great run offense is more psychologically devastating for a defense than getting bombed by an air raid passing attack. It’s much more of a physical beat down and generally keeps the defense out on the field longer while it’s happening. It’s easy to attribute a long complete pass to only one person blowing an assignment, but chunk runs implicate the line, linebackers, and often the secondary. Far more mentally devastating.
If Michigan goes into Columbus and can pave OSU with their running game, it will be a glorious sight because it will absolutely rip the heart out of their team. I’m not saying it will happen, but I think it CAN happen.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
Good content, thanks for sharing. My takeaway is that Michigan's offense is more balanced than I thought, even though they're much more of a running team. They outgained opponents thru the air higher than those opponents' averages 4/7x, but always beat those averages on the ground (7/7x). I'd still like to see Michigan air it out for real 1-2x, even if it's just against teams horribad against the pass (MSU, Nebraska). Rutgers is surprisingly competent against the pass (as of last week, haven't look at updated numbers incorporating this weekend).
October 24th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
My immediate reaction to the headline was anger at playing cupcakes and that we can't really compare ourselves to our opponents (like OSU, MSU, etc.) because of uneven competition. But I was very pleasantly surprised to see how well Michigan has played our opponents compared to everyone else. Very nice work. plus one.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
West Quad,
It's the time of the season when "comparative" things can happen with a bit more data.
For instance - last weekend - there were two B1G games of "more note" for me - Iowa at the Bucks, and Minny at Penn State. I think Penn State recovered from their trip to A2, and though Iowa was on the road, which negates a "home field" relative to Michigan's game against them, the Hawkeyes were a turnover machine. I believe the Hawkeyes committee six (6) turnovers in Columbus.
So, with the above, I feel comfortable with the results, and where Michigan stands. Go Blue!
October 24th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
Nice way to translate the point into graphical representation! I've never seen it done this way before and now it's completely obvious that this should be a standard way to visually represent the data. Edward Tufte would be proud.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
Fantastic work, great visuals and the story is told well. I did a double-take when I saw the Maryland stat, their offense is humming nicely
October 24th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^
There's been a lot of holding against our DL, that goes uncalled. IU held us a lot but no flags. Improvements needed before playing OSU. Offense, JJ and his WRs need to improve on mid and deep passes. Defense, needs to work on the pass rush and I hope our LBs can improve play before the GAME!
October 24th, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
Beat State. That is all. Win and advance.
October 24th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
This is a beautiful visualization and an incredibly informative post! Thanks for putting it together. It would be interesting to see the penalties graphs for other high-performing teams this year: Georgia, Alabama, OSU, Clemson, and Tennessee. Is this just refs biased towards underdogs?
October 24th, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
63-3 Blue.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:24 PM ^
I really like these charts, some really good information and represented very clearly. Nice job.
October 24th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
Great data, thank you for sharing.
TL;DR - We are kicking ass in almost every conceivable way.
October 24th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Whoo boy, that PSU rush yards diamond.
October 24th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
Yeah. Compare that to Iowa's total yards per game. We had more rushing yards against PSU than Iowa has put up in total yards against any team.
October 24th, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^
I'm a Michigan fan: I like my beer cold, my coffee strong, and my blue diamonds on the correct edge of the line.
October 24th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
Nicely done, Blue! It took me a minute to figure it out, but once I did... This format puts the relevant information into clarity at a glance, similar to the way the weekly 'team efficiency' chart gets plotted.
As well as the offense has looked, keep in mind that Harbaugh has tailored it to the opponent. He hasn't really let JJ off the passing hooks at the same time the running game was gamed for big numbers. It's been balanced, at best, but only incrementally - I believe the best is yet to come.
MSU is going to get a full effort. The last thing this team wants is another close game that can be swayed by a couple of stoopid ref spotlights. Illinois will also get the full Monty.
October 24th, 2022 at 4:27 PM ^
Thanks. When I was making these graphs they seemed to make perfect sense. But then when I tried to explain them, it took me a few minutes to think about it. I was always taught that any graph should be entirely self-contained (needing no explanation). Not sure I completely achieved that here.
That's the thing I love about Harbaugh. He'll usually build a gameplan to beat his current opponent rather than adopt a 'one size fits all' strategy. When the running game isn't as effective and he needs to adapt (i.e., Indiana this year), he does.
He knows that both passing and running will be important against MSU, so I'm looking forward to big numbers in both areas. I just hope we crush those fools.