A very impressive PFF number for Drake Nugent
I'll let these numbers speak for themselves:
Then there's this from the front page of MGoBlog:
he was given a 77.5 (i.e. PFF) grade last season (25th among centers nationally) and 80.2 this year (8th among centers nationally).
Looks like if he keeps on improving at that fast pace, he could be knocking on the door of being #1.
December 20th, 2022 at 12:26 AM ^
Good to see.
it has me thinking about how an entire line’s skill impacts each lineman’s stats. We know all too well how drops impact the QBs numbers. Does one weak lineman improve a stat like this? For example, would weak tackles lead to pressure off the edge which would reduce interior lineman’s pressure or sack rate?
obviously 2 for almost 1,000 is absurd so it wouldn’t necessarily have a significant impact here
December 20th, 2022 at 12:38 AM ^
oh look another center who wants to win a conference title while upping his NFL draft stock.
welcome Nugent …. thanks for helping us win 3 B1G titles in a row
December 20th, 2022 at 2:01 AM ^
And 3 Sherrone/Joe Moore awards in a row!
Welcome Drake! Wise decision selecting the best collegiate development program in the country for O linemen.
Looking forward to cheering you on as you compete for starts, wins, The Game, B1G Championships and Natties!
Executing plays like this:
https://youtu.be/sNbhUp15G-Q?t=12782
And this:
December 20th, 2022 at 10:15 AM ^
"oh look another center who wants to win a conference title while upping his NFL draft stock."
I feel so cheap and used. Been wanting to feel this way since high school. Finally!
December 20th, 2022 at 12:43 AM ^
I like this new gent
December 20th, 2022 at 12:57 AM ^
Interesting that he's rated much lower than Hinton on the portal rankings. The stats and grades all make it seem like Nugent is the better player -- unless they're skewing their rating towards potential instead of actual production. Either way, it seems as if the floor for our o-line is much higher with him on the team. Center is the only position we didn't get to see a backup start a game at this year.
December 20th, 2022 at 1:22 AM ^
I’m guessing it has something to do with NFL potential. Hinton could still develop into a 1st rounder where as Nugent is more likely to be a very solid college player but without the NFL upside. High ceiling vs high floor.
December 20th, 2022 at 9:40 AM ^
Yeah typically rankings are NFL prospect based - 5 stars being potential first rounders and so on. Your assessment is probably dead on here, though I don’t know if 247 or anyone else has explicitly said if they are using the same criteria for transfers, but if not I would assume they are
December 20th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
Actually I think they're counting HS grade as opposed to NFL potential.
December 20th, 2022 at 5:58 AM ^
With all this news it makes me hope Crippen beats him out even more
December 20th, 2022 at 8:36 AM ^
May the best big ugly win.
December 20th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^
don't bet real money on it
December 20th, 2022 at 7:47 AM ^
There will never be a replacement for Olu (because he may be the best C in school history), but Nugent seems willing to give it a go.
Our O-Line shouldn't miss much of a beat even if we lose Olu, Zinter, Keegan, and Hayes. Henderson should be an equal at least to Hayes, we know Nugent will be a plus C, El-Hadi has shown already he can be a quality G, and Barnhart/Jones have been good and another year of competition will only make them better. Basically we just will be looking to fill the other G but we will have the option of Crippen or Anderson sliding to that spot or possibly Barnhart if we want Jones at Tackle.
December 20th, 2022 at 8:30 AM ^
Q, I’m still enjoying this season. However, there will be one difference between the 2022 and 2023 O lines. That difference is game experience. And, perhaps - to a lesser degree, game reps together.
I’m completely confident in Coach Moore and the staff to develop them, but - I do expect some hiccups next year.
As for this season, they play again in about ten days, and I look forward to that game. Go Blue!
December 20th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
I think we’ll miss a beat from being 2x Joe Moore winning line with the best center we (or most schools) have ever had. …but it sounds like we’re reloading and the transition shouldn’t be bad.
December 20th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
The point makes sense, but with four easy games (sorry, Rutgers) to start and then the two following roadies being NEB and MINN, the schedule ramps up pretty well for us.
Plus, Sherrone Moore. Plus, JJ with another year of experience to take the pressure off of the OL.
We'll be fine.
December 20th, 2022 at 11:23 AM ^
Hinton might be a better fit inside as well.
December 20th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Michigan has a history of great linemen going way back before Schembechler's teams. But if you just look at that period forward, there are some greats from recent generations including Goodwin, Baas, Molk and Cesar Ruiz, just to name a recent handful. Michigan has a legacy of great offensive linemen who starred in college and in the pros.
We are just seeing now what it means to have a dynamic offensive line. The Oline in 1997 had only one holdover starter, Jon Jansen. But it eventually developed into one of Michigan's most effective in a national championship season. It included two players who were moved from defense to offense, Chris Zieman and Steve Hutchinson, who was a two-time all-American, along with Jeff Backus, a longtime Lion.
December 20th, 2022 at 8:06 AM ^
We have become the place where the big uglies are beautiful.
December 20th, 2022 at 8:23 AM ^
This is a piece of the Wiscy playbook. Great line, every year, with guys starting who are upperclassmen and seen the field in years past. That puts a very high floor on your offense, and with some good skill players, you are going to be a tough team every year.
December 20th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
SF, one thing that I like about this staff is - they open solid leads. And, those leads allow the 2’s, 3’s, and 4’s to get game reps. That experience is invaluable - great for the player and great for the staff to evaluate their play.
December 20th, 2022 at 8:37 AM ^
Good point. Success leads to success. May we continue to have lots of it!
December 20th, 2022 at 8:37 AM ^
And to clarify, we like PFF's OL evaluations when they say nice things about guys we like? This, by the way, is the same PFF that had exactly ONE (Zinter) Michigan lineman in their All-Big Ten First AND Second Teams. They did put Olu in their third team Big Ten, something I'm sure the nation's best Center is very proud of.
I like Drake Nugent as a pickup. I'm excited about his size and potential. I'm in the "grain of salt" camp when it comes to what PFF has to say re: OL grades about it.
December 20th, 2022 at 8:50 AM ^
I'll confess to being a bit mystified by how PFF actually does their evaluations. Based on what I can gather from the UFRs here, the effort to chart even one game down to individual player details is quite a bit. Doing that for dozens of players across a hundred or so division one programs every week ... I don't know, it just strains credulity to think they do it like Brian/Seth do UFRs.
My guess -- pure guess -- is they have a network of people from week to week, and the methodology employed varies from person to person. My guess is the reviews are based on watching the game rather than snap-by-snap analysis like the UFRs. My guess is the reviews are based at least in part on an intuitive sense for how a player did, rather than a detailed review.
I could be wrong.
But if I'm right, then it may explain some of the discrepancy between what PFF reports and what Brian/Seth say. How many times have we seen Brian or Seth say going into the UFR they thought player X didn't do well, but after the UFR process they found the player actually did far better than initially thought? More than a few times.
December 20th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
Great point. I’ve wondered the same.
December 20th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
Maybe I'm not exactly understanding your theory... but I guess I don't understand how PFF would be able to do what they do without someone at least making an attempt at snap-by-snap analysis. They do individual player grades and scores, things that really wouldn't be possible if you're just holistically observing a game. (again if I'm understanding your premise) NOW, do I think they take as much time on each game and evaluation as Seth/Brian do here? Obviously not. I trust "our guys" and the effort and energy they put into what they do way more, but I do enjoy seeing an independent third party opinion as well.
PFF has been a pretty useful/interesting resource for this site for years now. I hate to feel like it can't really be used for anything other than snap counts and basic advanced stats.
I feel like the PFF guys seem to be pretty open to go on shows and talk about their product, etc. I vote for an off season pod where maybe they have someone from PFF on to help de-mystify the process and explain (inexplicable) things like Olu as third team All Big Ten and one Michigan lineman in the first two teams, etc.
December 20th, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
You could be right ... I'm just left wondering how in the world they do that for all the games, including games that are barely on the radar of significance. Are the people doing that on full-time paid staff? Or do they farm out to a collection of people who do it for some set compensation per game?
I should have been more precise: I think they do some degree of snap-by-snap analysis, but I'm wondering to what degree the detailed analysis gives way to a less granular, more "the play worked great and the right tackle made a great block, so he gets a good mark and I won't pay much attention to what the TE on the other side was doing" sort of thing.
I'm in pure speculation mode here ... and I'm not bashing PFF ... I'm just genuinely curious how they do what they do.
December 20th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
Yeah, I think I can definitely get on board with the general premise that there are 60 P5 college teams playing games every weekend, and that the ability to consistently and effectively rate and rank all 22 guys on every play of every game across all games feels difficult to say the least. It's daunting to just think about really.
As for farming out the job... I wouldn't be surprised by that either. I think the majority of their "talent" is dedicated toward Sundays. After all they are pro football focused. And I'm sure that's where the money lies.
But I too am curious how their process works, or doesn't work, in the case of Offensive Line evaluation this year.
December 20th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
At a higher level, who exactly is PFF's market of paying customers?
I would think NFL teams have their own staff of analysts that evaluate other NFL games, and in particular teams on the schedule for the year. Would they pay PFF as a set of supplemental analysis? And for draft pick evaluation, I guess the NFL teams might be interested in 3rd party evaluation to see if there's a jewel to be had out in, let's say, UMASS or New Mexico State. But I doubt they'd commit a draft pick based on just PFF data.
So given that, then my question is: how much revenue opportunity is there for this data, which then goes to what kind of spending they'd put into game analysis.
Going back to my original post ... I'm mystified, and that usually makes me start asking questions.
EDIT -- a quick look at their website seems to indicate their business model is individual subscribers, with a focus on fantasy football enthusiasts, as well as people looking for information for wagering on games.
December 20th, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
I do wonder for Michigan specifically if part of it was PFFs love of Blake Corum. They gave him their Heisman this year and seemed to see him as the great player that he was. That said, if you give all that credit to him you may underrate the line a bit? Seth alluded to having a theory on PFF line grading that he didn’t get to fully explain on WTKA, but he referenced them giving basically no points for executing and doing your job. I also think Michigans blocking schemes up times for guys like Corum and Edwards to be one on one with a guy because they know he will win that battle most of the time, but that may look like Bad blocking to the casual grader?
December 20th, 2022 at 9:07 AM ^
Yes, please.
Welcome.
December 20th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
how do those scores compare to Olu?
December 20th, 2022 at 9:40 AM ^
Football's changed a lot, but one of the fundamental truths remains that if you control the trenches you'll win most games.
December 20th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
Good to see. Thanks for sharing.
December 20th, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
But can he wango tango?
December 20th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
the best "stat" I see here is that C on his chest. I looked it up, he was a two-time captain at Stanford. A two-time Stanford *captain* center, Yes please and thank you!!
December 20th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
Aww...what do our coaches know?
December 20th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
Seth mentioned he has similar PFF grade as Olu, which is great.