Vegas futures still not moving
I checked FanDuel and DraftKings this morning and still no movement on any of the Michigan lines or futures: OSU +155 to win the B1G and Georgia +240 to win the CFP on DK. Michigan is -110 to win the B1G and +240 to win the CFP.
As I have said before, the important line to watch is OSU to win the B1G given that they would be an overwhelming favorite if Michigan were not in their way. I believe that OSU would jump to -600 if Michigan were to be ineligible to play in the B1G title game and would have to at least be a slight favorite to win The Game if Harbaugh were to suspended or fired.
There are literally tens of millions on the line and the big sports books are obviously highly connected into every nook and cranny of the sport. Not to mention that folks in the know should be betting massive amounts on OSU to win the B1G and moving the line with their bets. This would be like finding out MSFT falsified their financial results so you can imagine would happen to their stock in that scenario.
Whatever this big bad shoe which is supposedly about to drop is either the best kept secret on earth (it is clearly not since everyone and their mother is discussing it right now) or it can’t be bad enough that the betting markets think it will hurt Michigan. What a mystery! The money (which is right 99% of the time) says this is a nothing but the feels are terrible!
To be honest, given that that the B1G has seemingly decided to declare war against Michigan and trying to enact punishment, I am actually surprised none of this is starting to impact the lines just from an impact on the team.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
I put $100 each on OSU to win the B1G and Georgia to win the CFP just to hedge my massive emotional investment in all this.
Michigan football is more important to me than it should be for a 50 year old guy with a family and career.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
Plus I paid $3k for 6 tickets to Michigan v OSU - so that is an actual $ hedge against the value of the tickets.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
You're mistaking MGoBlog for your Proustian diary.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
$3k for 6 tickets. Got dang.
Long gone are the days where, as a student, granted, I paid less than $100 for all the home games (early 1990's) in any given season.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
I mean 500 bucks a ticket for probably the biggest game of the college football season is not the worst I think.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
Yeah, it was supposed to be a big Thanksgiving weekend family event so I thought I would splurge. Whatever.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Never hedge to OSU...always double down !!
November 4th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
Why are you putting money down to hedge your emotional investment?
November 4th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
Why not? I could take the Misses out for a nice dinner and get my mind off all this drama for a night. Better than drinking myself into oblivion on Thanksgiving weekend.
Besides I am also hedging my $3k ticket purchase.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Because that dinner will be tainted. Either direction you'll never be fully happy.
I get the logic but it just doesn't play out for me.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
Humble brag. Not!
November 4th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
Most important indicator that this means nothing from a competitive advantage.
November 4th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
I disagree to some extent- I think you would see the markets temporarily taken down if there was real smoke, before you would see a huge change in the odds. But here they are, still taking money. Says something about something.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
It says Vegas knows a bluff when they see one.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
Nope, nope, nope. That would only be the case if you thought the B1G game would be cancelled altogether. What your saying makes no sense if there is going to be a B1G winner and Michigan is not eligible or Harbaugh is going to be suspended (the Harbaugh impact is less cut and dry but we would all agree that there would have to be some impact).
Nobody is giving away OSU at +155 if they don't think Michigan will be eligible to play. OSU was -675 to beat Wisconsin last week and would have at least the same odds to beat any other B1G West team. Without Michigan in the way, they would have already virtually clinched the East. S the only betting line would be OSU vs. whatever team is able to crawl out of the West.
If you believe that and you like money, you should be putting a lot of $$$ on OSU to with the B1G. Even if you don't care to win money in that manner, certainly a lot of other people would already be doing that.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
I think what he's saying is if they thought there was a real possibility of any of this they'd stop taking bets altogether until the smoke cleared. And I think he's right.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
That may also be the case and, by the way, would also prove my point that Vegas still doesn't think this is likely; however, you are still missing the point that the OSU futures would be moving.
Use my MSFT example from above - yes, the exchange would halt trading on MSFT if there was a pending news event of that magnitude. However, long before then, the stock would start getting hammered as soon as news started leaking. That is how markets work.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
Nobody's disagreeing with your point, just with how it would likely play out. If there's even a sniff of a possibility of Michigan being declared ineligible they're pulling that sucker off the board. There's way, way too much possibility of somebody knowing more than they do.
What lack of line movement means is (1) no suspension of Harbaugh and (2) no belief in any actual import of the sign stealing.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
You and I may be in general agreement. Others are clearly not.
You are correct - that is exactly what the lack of line movement is saying. That is my whole point.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
Futures wagers are one sided markets. They can’t be adjusted as quickly and balanced by a buy side and a sell side by price/odds adjustments. The futures markets for B1G and National Championship odds would more than likely be pulled before you would see OSU -600 or the like.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
You have no idea what you are talking about. Lines and futures are literally updated moment to moment based on the buy and sell money coming in amongst other factors. Certainly it wouldn't take weeks to move the lines.
Otherwise you would have HUGE arbitrage in the market and I can assure you that while there is some arbitrage in the markets - nothing on that massive of a scale.
If people believe something big was going down - futures would be moving. It might not be right at -600 but it would be moving.
Just stop.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:58 AM ^
First, I never said it would be down for weeks, the biggest number I threw out was a couple days.
What are you rabbling on about regarding arbitrage? How do you place an arbitrage bet if the “unadjusted” lines are pulled?
I’m a high volume data based wagerer for the last 2 years. I’m up a lot. I know what the fuck I’m talking about, thank you very much. What are your creds?
November 4th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
I know so little about how sportsbooks or betting of any kind reflects (or even shapes) popular perceptions or supposed insider knowledge, but I find the concept fascinating nonetheless. Any MgoBloggers know of any books or research on this?
November 4th, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
On one of the recent podcasts Brian said that Vegas has been liking Michigan MORE ever since this news came out. Is there a site that shows betting line movement over time? I'd love to see that to verify if it's true
November 4th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Hard to say as Vegas is discounting every game result and bit of news out there. Using OSU as the main barometer - they were +175 to win the B1G after the weekend they beat PSU / Michigan beat MSU.
They moved up to +165 during that week - could have been related to SignGate but that is a normal fluctuation so not really telling in anyway. After beating Wiscy, OSU moved up to +155 (which seems reasonable) and haven't moved since.
I would say more so that it hasn't had a significant impact either direction.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
Not sure if there is such a site but I've been keeping an eye on the lines and they have definitely increased in Michigan's favor in the past couple weeks. E.g. two weeks ago Michigan moneyline at Penn St was as low as -141 (a bet I placed):
However, now the best moneyline price (even with rumors of a Harbaugh suspension) for Michigan is north of -300:
Similarly, Michigan had been sitting as a 3-point favorite over OSU for months. Now it's up to 6.
My read is this has a lot more to do with Michigan looking more incredible each week and OSU/PSU having issues, especially at QB. But if the threat of punishment-- or, more laughably, that the loss of Stalions could mean a 10-21 point swing according to blubbering Big 10 coaches -- then Vegas doesn't seem to agree. (Unless Vegas oddsmakers think it would be Michigan by 28 with Stalions)
November 4th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
I agree that the real Vegas issue is whether Michigan’s point spreads have decreased due to a belief their winning margins were partially due to sign matters. Apparently Vegas does not think anything has changed. The gang mentality of the other B10 school reps is appalling.
November 4th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
Was the -141 before or after Penn State lost to OSU?
November 4th, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^
The day before
November 4th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
Wampa,
I use covers.com mostly. You can see line movement for the major online books and also for Vegas (I think).
November 4th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
I think the money is what moves the needle so you're right. We'll see
November 4th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
Can I put money down on [vacated]?
November 4th, 2023 at 11:21 AM ^
The Big Ten hasn’t declared war on Michigan in any meaningful way. We knew Thursday that there had been a coaches meeting and that other coaches whined to Pettiti. Pettiti responded by contacting Santa Ono, who rightfully told him to pound sand.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
Did he actually say that? Would be awesome if he did. We need someone at M who has a spine.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
rumor is, the commish asked Ono to suspend Jim for two games... Ono said, since there isn't any real evidence indicating Jim had knowlege of the elaborate sign stealing scheme of Stalions, No, we aren't going to do that.....
In a since deleted thread, I predicted exactly that.... If you want my pick for tonights Lotto, dm me.
November 4th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
I am referring to the other B1G teams as "the B1G" when I say they are declaring war.
Pettiti seems to be siding with the mob although I agree that is not entirely clear.