Updated Advanced Stats

Submitted by alum96 on

There has been a lot of discussion of advanced stats lately since there is not much to talk about in actual game this week, so here are rankings of UM and some key opponents / conference foes updated via Football Outsiders.

I am listing both S&P+ which people who watch this closer than me say is better mid season and FEI which is probably a better measure but more useful late in the year. (FEI is very cruel to Big 10 offenses right now for whatever reason)  Whatever the case you have 2 figures so you can average them and get a pretty good idea where any team falls in the landscape.

Disclosure - yes stats are for losers but when that's all you have....

Just a quick glance shows UM to be very Maryland like - a decent but not super defense paired with a ho hum offense.  Minnesota is very similar which makes the results that much more depressing of that game.  OSU has rapidly improved and brings a very potent offense with a solid if not spectacular defense.  MSU passes with high marks in everything but FEI offense.  Notre Dame is legit.  Utah has a surpringly bad offense but some good defense.

Based on this UM fans should have high hopes to beat Indiana and reasonable hope to beat Northwestern (in a pillow fight similar to PSU v UM) and Maryland.  Hope should be abandoned vs MSU/OSU.

S&P first/FEI second

UM

  • Defense:  23/44
  • Offense:   61/74

MSU

  • Defense:  8/23
  • Offense:  13/45

OSU

  • Defense:  19/28
  • Offense:  5/20

Notre Dame

  • Defense:  24/19
  • Offense:  25/34

PSU

  • Defense: 16/9
  • Offense:  59/94

Nebraska

  • Defense:  31/18
  • Offense:  20/39

Rutgers

  • Defense:  62/75
  • Offense:  33/38

Maryland

  • Defense:  35/34
  • Offense:  62/53

Indiana

  • Defense:  88/119
  • Offense:  47/42

Wisconsin

  • Defense:  26/41
  • Offense:  28/64

Utah

  • Defense: 36/8
  • Offense:  92/83

Minnesota

  • Defense:  33/31
  • Offense:  51/68

Northwestern

  • Defense:  40/60
  • Offense:  95/46

Iowa

  • Defense: 41/7
  • Offense:  96/69

Arizona:

  • Defense: 55/33
  • Offense:  37/14

 

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).  The S&P+ figures used in the tables below only look at the plays that took place while a game was deemed competitive. Garbage-time plays and possessions have been filtered out of the calculations. The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

 

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alum96

October 21st, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^

This far into the year everyone has played a baby seal or two, along with a decent amount of conference games.  Obviously if your 2 conference games thus far were OSU and MSU vs say Illinois and ... well Michigan, your stats will be judged differently, but everyone has played some baby seals.

And if you read how some of these stats are calculated once a score gets out of hand vs a baby seal the data ceases to be weighed.  So baby seal stats are only useful early in games for these type of measures.  Which is why they are going to be more useful than a straight "total defense" or "total offense" measure via the NCAA.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82455

SFBlue

October 21st, 2014 at 4:54 PM ^

That Penn State's defense is ranked so high causes me to lose faith in these measures. You could make the argument that Northwestern's defense is better, based on the results of the games played.  Although Northwestern was aided by 4 Wisconsin turnovers, they beat the Badgers; forcing turnovers is propensity that is hard to measure--on the one hand, it's probably more a measure of an inept offense (e.g., Michigan has to be close to last in turnover margin), but on the other hand, forcing a turnover is the greatest contribution a defense can make to the outcome of a game.   

Joined: 11/02/2009

MGoPoints: 15699

alum96

October 21st, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^

PSU has OSU, Maryland, and Indiana coming up.  No idea if Indiana will find a way to get their QB to pass for more than 11 yards by then but the first 2 games should cause some ruckus for PSU.

PSU has given up 24, 3, 10, 7, 29, and 18 thus far this year.  I think their DL is very good (Zettel will be drafted pretty high) and Hull is a hell of a LB.  Not as sure about their secondary but other than the great Gary Nova they have not faced much of a passing attack yet.  p.s. they had 5 INTs on Gary Nova.  So contrast that to UM's defense.  It's a pretty solid unit.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82455

Don

October 21st, 2014 at 4:57 PM ^

instead of answering Hoke's call to offer him the job.

He's not beyond criticism, but he stepped into a lousy situation with some important things beyond his control—like a functional offensive line—and it's going to take a while to get the stink of 2014 off his resumé before his next stop.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148335

alum96

October 21st, 2014 at 5:01 PM ^

Agreed.  I said in livechat during the Utah game he probably set his career back 3 years.   I'll be curious where he ends up being an OC at next year.

And if he was the OC at Bama right now, he'd ironically be someone a large cadre of folks would be demanding as a potential HC candidate.  Which is why I worry about any coordinator under an elite HC who has not gone out on his own and tried things as a HC for 3-4 years.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82455

The Dude

October 21st, 2014 at 7:12 PM ^

when reading through total offense and defense stats on ncaa.com...

Michigan O=340.1 (110) v. MSU D=292.7 (9)

MSU O=525.1 (12) v. Michigan D=301.0 (10) 

Scoring O v. Scoring D: 

Michigan O= 21.7 (105) v. MSU D= 21.6 (T-34) 

MSU O= 47 (3) v. Michigan D= 21.4 (T-30) 

3rd down conversion: MSU= 47.1% (17), MICH= 41.3% (T-62) 

3rd down conversion defense: MSU=25.3% (3), MICH= 36.1% (44) 

Turnover Margin: MSU= +11 (T-3), MICH= -13 (124)

Sacks allowed: MSU= 4 (T-1), MICH= 16 (T-82) 

Sacks for: MSU= 3.71 per game (T-4), MICH= 2.57 per game (T-41) 

I hope for the best, but it looks very grim based on the stats, the eye test, and Hoke's inability to win on the road against good teams... 

Joined: 09/13/2014

MGoPoints: 405