Tiger's Fulmer Conundrum

Submitted by Roy G. Biv on

This is very optimistic, but let's suppose the Indians run out of their Pedro Serrano Jobu magic.  If in September the Tigers are right there for a playoff spot and Fulmer has reached his pre-determined inning limit for the season, what do you do?  This also supposes Fulmer continues to be their best pitcher.

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JBE

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:23 AM ^

It's a tough one. This kid has a special arm, with a lot of potential down the road, so if you were to injure him. Well... You'd be run out of town on a rail. At the same time you want to give the team the best chance for success. I'd probably sit Fulmer, and try to piece together the rotation for a run.

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wolverine1987

July 2nd, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^

save pitchers from injures, I would submit that the question is not difficult. If it was me I'd have him skip a start or two, as he's just done, because it does not hurt to be safe. But I would have zero hesitation at all pitching him all through September. 

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UMAmaizinBlue

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:35 AM ^

In the race down the stretch, I say extend his innings for a couple extra starts, and closely monitor his count in those starts. The bullpen has been average this year and isn't the tire fire it was the last few years, so we could rely on them in a limited start.

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xtramelanin

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:43 AM ^

i will admit i haven't read the stats, but our bullpen has been beaten like a rented mule by most opposing teams, and i'm pretty sure there is now a tattoo of the cleveland indians chief on their hind end.  

Image result for picture of cleveland indians chief

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ckersh74

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:50 AM ^

The Tribe has kicked the starter's asses all season, too. We've had to go to the bullpen quite early more than a couple times against Cleveland. If we can get some decent starts out of the rotation, the bullpen can become less of an issue. 

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BigBlue02

July 3rd, 2016 at 8:20 PM ^

I still haven't figured out what we are 23rd overall on that graph. But we are 18th in WHIP, which is average I will tell you that according to advanced statistics, the Tigers have a top 10 bullpen in the league, with some statistics being top 5

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ikestoys

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:39 AM ^

I don't think this is going to be a problem. They're doing a very good job of limiting his innings already. 

If it does hit his limit though, you have to shut him down.  You have him under team control for the next five years, and should not risk him getting a major injury that ruins his career.

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1VaBlue1

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:46 AM ^

This is the same situation the Nationals found themselves in a few years ago with Stephen Strasburg.  It was a HUGE deal here, with a 50/50 split whether to sit him or play him.  The manager chose to sit him, as he asid he'd do all year.  The Nats didn't do much in the playoffs, either.  He was hung out, predictably, by those who thought Strasburg should play; and complemented for being a man of his word in protecting a young players arm.  That protected future - playoff success behind Strasburg's arm - didn't work out for the Nats, because future's aren't predictable.

My money says to find a way to use him, but spare his arm as much as possible.  Pull him out with a three run lead in the 5th; don't trust the pen with a one run lead after 7.  The Tigers, and Fulmer's arm, have no future promised.  If you have a chance this year, take it.  For whatever reason, you may not have the same chance next year.

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dcwolverine1993

July 2nd, 2016 at 12:27 PM ^

best reply in the thread because it's the most instructive.  The Nats sidelined Strasburg, who went on to be an oft-hurt decent pitcher, despite having his arm babied (He's having his best season this year, 4 years afterwards, but he is now again on the DL).

 

Futures are unpredictable.  You have to try to win now, because you never know what the future holds.  

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ckersh74

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:48 AM ^

The correct answer is that you manage the innings appropriately beforehand so that this doesn't become an issue in the first place. Innings limits like this don't just pop up overnight. 

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ckersh74

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:52 AM ^

The problem is, three of the starters have been putrid as of late. Pelfrey, Sanchez, and Zimmerman (since his return from injury) have simply not been very good. They might be saving Fulmer, but these three are wearing a bullpen out in the process. 

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Roy G. Biv

July 2nd, 2016 at 9:52 AM ^

I agree with long term outlook, but Devil's Advocate says:  Cabrera, Verlander, Martinez, Ilitch, et al aren't getting any younger.  Is this team on an upward or downward track?  This may be their last best chance.

 

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rob f

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:03 AM ^

catching the Indians until and unless Detroit wins the upcoming series at Cleveland. And even then, as well as Cleveland is playing, the best the Tigers likely can do is get the wildcard unless they come up with a solution to the starting rotation mess---Pelfrey is a disaster and Sanchez can't cut it. In the meantime, Fulmer's innings MUST be cut back every opportunity. When the Tigers went up 7-0 in the top of the 7th, Fulmer should have been pulled instead of pitching the bottom of 7. Ausmus missed an opportunity to save an inning; a seasoned manager such as Francona would have figured it out.

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Rodriguesqe

July 2nd, 2016 at 11:35 AM ^

No kidding, I started the thread last night after the 6th. I didn't want to jinx him starting the thread while he was stil in but I figured for sure he was for sure done with the Tigers up 4. Then the Tigers added 3 more runs, and Ausmus still put him back in.

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ckersh74

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^

From Basebal Reference, Fulmer's innings pitched, per season, including the minors:

2011: 5 1/3

2012: 108 1/3

2013: 46

2014: 98 1/3

2015: 124 2/3

2016: 86 so far, between Toledo and Detroit

 

Seeing that, I don't think I want him much above 160, and not above 175 under any circumstances. 

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ckersh74

July 2nd, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^

In general, when you're developing a young pitcher, you do not want to exceed the prior year's innings by more than about 20-25%. You don't want a pitcher to go from 125 to 210 innings in one year, especially at a younger age. The pitching motion is not human nature in the first place, and the arm is not conditioned to handle such a rapid increase. You're simply inviting disaster where the risk does not need to be taken. 

Fulmer threw 124 2/3 innings last year. Going to 160 innings is roughly a 30% increase for Fulmer this year. Going to 175 is about 40%. I'd rather err on the side of caution with a young arm of this magnitude. It's a hell of a lot better than having these conversations two years from now when his arm is wrecked from overuse by being reckless now. 

When he was still at ESPN, Rob Neyer wrote a nice piece a few years ago that laid out when it's generally okay to take the reins off of a pitcher and let him loose, without innings limits. The age falls somewhere between 23-25, with 23 being the absolute minimum. I wish I had a quick link for you. Neyer being Neyer, he had quite a bit of data in there, IIRC. 

There seems to be some nonsensical idea out there that back the day, pitchers came to the majors, threw 280 innings a year starting at age 21, and did it for 20 years. Nonsense. There's PLENTY of guys that threw big innings in their early 20's....and found themselves selling used cars by their late 20's because their arm was shot to hell. I can give you two from the Tigers that wrecked their arms in their early 20's: Mark Fidrych and Denny McLain. 

I don't know if you've listened to older MLB pitchers talk about how guys were brought along at young ages 40+ years ago. The ones that I have heard have said that in general, they would go from 120 to 160, to 180-200, and after that, you're probably good to go. 

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Hail Harbo

July 2nd, 2016 at 8:09 PM ^

1.)  It is really hard to say what long term effect the lowered mound had on McLain's productivety.  Maybe nothing, but what probably had a much more dilbilitating effect was his involvement with organized crime via his gambling obsession.  Couple that with his being a wild and crazy guy and I don't think anybody could making any objective inferences about McLain's downfall and number of innings pitched.

2.) Fydrich wrecked his knee shagging flys during spring training 1977 and never again pitched well.  His knee was injured which altered his delivery, his altered delivery injured his rotator cuff.  Few pitchers in the 1970s could or would overcome a rotator cuff injury and return to form.  Sports medicine has advance considerably in the last four decades, had Fydrich injured his knee at spring training 2007 after a magical 2006 season, no doubt it would have been repaired and he would have resumed his career in 2008 where it left off in 2006.  Again, no inference should be made about innings pitched and Fydrich's short career, not with the knee injury in the mix.

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ckersh74

July 2nd, 2016 at 8:22 PM ^

I'll happily concede the point about Fidrych, but I reject your theory on McLain. 

From 1966-1969, in seasons where he was aged 22-25, McLain threw 1160 1/3 innings, an average of 290 per year. For an arm that is fully developed, that could be okay. But for him to do that at that age was absurd.

Further evidence lies in the immediate jump in his WHIP after the 1969 season. He went from a guy who was between 0.900 and 1.200, to 1.4000+ overnight. Now, his other troubles started to manifest themselves in 1970, but after that he was flat-out brutal. In his first book, he even admitted that his arm was starting to hurt, and he was out of baseball just before he turned 29. Gee, I wonder why...

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wolverine1987

July 3rd, 2016 at 9:11 AM ^

aren't these guidelines made up? Meaning, where is the medical opinion behind the innings numbers? I'm not challenging you, and don't expect you to have links to medical studies, but when I spent time one day googling for evidence that pitch counts limit injuries, I found literally none other than people asserting that pitch and innings counts save arms from stress. What I did find was one study showing that pitching injuries are higher now than they were in the 1970's, when they had four man rotations and pitched longer into games. That's not proof of anything, but there does seem to be a consensus opinion in baseball around this issue, a complete consensus in fact, yet we don't seem to be limiting inuries like this is designed to do.

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henrynick20

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:10 AM ^

If Fulmer truly is fatigued, we will see that in both his performance and his pitch speeds. The guy has yet to lose velocity but once he eclipses 140-150, we will truly see how he is holding up. If his fastball dips to the 93 average with a max at 95, it may be necessary to shelf him. If he throws 175 innings and his fastball is still 96-97, with the same results we've seen, you've gotta leave him in there. The heart of our run production is aging. Our once stellar rotation is fading. Our bullpen is a Jekyll and Hyde routine. Trust the arm, trust the results, but don't put an "inning count" on it. Every arm is different.

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50shadesofHARBAUGH

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:11 AM ^

Tigers are going to handle Fulmer the same way they handled JV in his first year. He'll make one more start before the all star break then essentially be shut down for two weeks. They'll occasionally skip his start.

The whole innings limit is so stupid. Remember when the Nats shut down Strasburg? That could've cost them the WS. Now I don't think the Tigers will make the postseason, but if they do Fulmer will be pitching, Illitch is too old and has too much money invested in this roster to have one of our best pitchers sit out the playoffs.

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JBE

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^

It doesn't matter how many innings a pitcher logs, they are bound to lose velocity on the fastball as they age, but JV has figured out other ways to get guys out. K-Rod is a great example of this. The arm wears out no matter what, and the best pitchers, like JV, make adjustments.

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Hott Karl

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:39 AM ^

Jack Morris made some great points the other day during the broadcast when he was talking about pitchers today feel like they have to give maximum effort on every single pitch. Not to say he took pitches/hitters off but you don't need to throw every fastball harder than the one before it. I hate innings and pitch limits. If these kids are taught how to pitch, instead of focusing on throwing high 90s fastballs 70% of the time, then I think we would see far less arm injuries. Sadly, I don't have any statistical data to back up my position.

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bronxblue

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:46 AM ^

It depends on how the rest of the league looks. Cleveland isn't going to remain this hot; I'm not sure they'll lose their 7 game lead, but who knows. But if Texas keeps playing well and KC also gets hots, I am not sure these Tigers are better than either of those clubs. So at that point, you might figure it isn't worth the long term risk. But at the same time, this is a team that should try to win now, and if Fulmer keeps it up there is no reason to keep a possible Cy Young winner on the bench.

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gustave ferbert

July 2nd, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^

they are 6 wins 23 losses against teams with winning records.  Even if they are in the thick of the race, they won't do anything with it.  

I say they should keep doing what they're doing.  The risk won't measure up to any tangible reward. 

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