The team going into Illinios

Submitted by coolcoachk on October 7th, 2019 at 11:01 AM

Here is my hot take on the season so far:

First, the good news. The defense is finally turning it around. McGrone is turning into "Bush Light" as an ILB and has a similar speed to make plays. Dax moving to Safety has also helped with coverage on those pesky crossing routes that have gashed us since the Indiana game last year. The fact Don Brown has mixed zone coverages combined with his solving problems (blitz-everyone in man coverage)   with aggression is a giant leap for our team and will help us remain competitive. Hopefully Hinton and Smith and help with DLine depth as the season rolls on. 

The bad news starts with the offensive line. This was supposed to be a strength, but it hasn't come to fruition. This hurts everything on offense, and it is going to hurt us unless they suddenly take a huge leap.  I believe this is the main reason why we don't take more shots downfield. The fact that tight ends seem to avoid contact with Defensive Ends on running plays is killing us on the backside. 

As far as the QB position goes, it's clear that Shea is either hurt and/or has regressed. Not a good look for Harbaugh if its the latter. In either case, Milton clearly isn't ready for games yet or he would be in there. To me, the answer lies in McCaffery. He can pull it and run, has been able to move the ball when given the opportunity, and deserves the start vs. Illinois if healthy. 

I may be a Harbaugh slappy, but when your #1 is hurt and can't pull it, your #2 is hurt, and your #3 isn't ready, it leaves you with no viable solution. We need a big game on offense this week or we could see a similar outcome when we travel to Happy Valley. Go Blue!

Blue_Bull_Run

October 7th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^

The good news is that Illinois isn't very good, so we have a nice little two-week "tune up" for PSU. Additional good news is the fact that we beat Iowa in a game that very easily could have been lost. The bad news is obvious: the offense appears hopeless, and it's unclear why we should have any hope that it'll magically get better in time for PSU. 

DurtyBirdy

October 7th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^

Disagree on the offensive line. Rough start for sure, but the last few games they have played well but are being held back by the offense. Shea had ample time to throw in the Iowa game and either missed reads or held on to the ball too long. The line also can’t do much when the defense knows you are only going to try running up the gut and that the QB won’t pull and run. 

mgojohnny

October 7th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^

The run game outcome has been pretty stale vs most ranked teams since 2015.  It's like opposing defense know our tendancies or something. 

Gattis has shown 3 or 4 good run calls against MTSU and Iowa early in the game where ZC gets nice 5-7 yard chunks.  Then it quickly devolves into a Harbaugh style run game.

BlueMan80

October 7th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^

Illinois has given up over 300 yards rushing their last two games.  If we can't have a healthy looking running game versus them, then we really are doomed.  Should be an opportunity to figure out what plays we can run well.  Would be nice to see some long runs finally break out this week too.

Eye of the Tiger

October 7th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^

In theory, the offense isn’t far off from a breakthrough - really all it would take is a few more pulls and a few more deep shots per game. That would open up stuff underneath and take pressure off of the RBs. 

The question at this point is whether we will ever see that. And the coaches aren’t stupid - if we see it, so do they. 

The problem IMO is probably one part Gattis learning on the job and two parts Shea (one part = injury; other part = not comfortable in the offense).

But if McCaffrey really the answer? He’s a better runner than Shea but beyond that I’m not convinced - he hasn’t looked great in relief. Sometimes you do want to be patient, like Harbaugh was with Rudock. 

That said, if our offense doesn’t start taking what’s available, I’ll get on that train too. Or any train, really. 

drjaws

October 7th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^

Michigan could probably beat Illinois even if the left the coaching staff at home.

But yea the offense is anemic.  Shea is having a hard time seeing the open WRs

WesternWolverine96

October 7th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^

I am still worried about Illinois if I am honest.  We will win, but not meet the lofty expectations of MGOBLOG

I don't see the coaches making a QB switch, but something isn't right with Shea

defense gave me hope this week that we can keep it together in time for offense to click

ijohnb

October 7th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^

I agree regarding Shea Patterson.  If you take a look at his trajectory this is pretty bizarre.  This is a guy who was on the NFL radar at least to the extent that he had to plausibly release a statement that he was returning to Michigan this season.  He struggled with some reads last season but he played really impressive football for big portions of last season and appeared to have every throw in the book.  He also seemed to be developing into a notable leader.  That is long gone right now.

My willingness to speculate about a 19-20 year old college student is pretty much limited to "huh this seems weird," but if you combine it with the golfing comments by Gattis, his omission as a captain, and the level of regression and almost cluelessness that he showing on the field.... well, "huh this seems weird."

The Mad Hatter

October 7th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^

Speight regressed when we went from Jedd to Pep and it was documented that they didn't get on that well.  I wonder if the same thing is happening here.  Maybe Shea and Gattis aren't on the same page or just don't like each other.

I'm no Gattis fan, and I think hiring him was a mistake, but the comment he made about Shea golfing, combined with him not being a captain as a senior, makes me think that he's not putting in the necessary work for a scheme change.

CLord

October 7th, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^

What part of the D against a predictable offense like Iowa gave you hope?  Was it the way Iowa converted every third and 40?  Was it the way we covered the drags and crossing routes?  Was it the way Iowa sustained long drive after long drive after long drive only to Ferentz itself by taking no risks on 4th down on our side of the field?

This D will get torched against PSU or OSU without better pressure from our DTs, which remains non-existent.  Those teams will lock down our DEs, single up the DTs and laugh.

Mixing zone is nice, but there is nothing about our D that makes me feel it is better than MSU, OSU or PSU's or ND's Ds.  At best it might be a push.  So it's all about Gattis and this offense outclassing those offenses. Uh, not good Bob.

BeatOSU52

October 7th, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^

Yea our D obviously played real well, but some of it I think we got lucky that Iowa's QB Stanley was a goober.  Any kind of QB with some type of athleticism (even Lewerke) probably would have avoided a lot of those sacked and burned our defense a couple times for possible big play TDs.

Beilein 4 Life

October 7th, 2019 at 1:59 PM ^

This is why I have trouble reading this board nowadays. We let up 1 yard rushing, have some interceptions and fumble recoveries, and let up 3 points, and now all the sudden the Iowa offense is predictable and their QB isn’t athletic enough to get away from all the sacks and our defense really isn’t that great still. I thought maybe beating a top 15 team might get rid of some of the whiney pussies on here, but I was wrong. The Wisconsin game was huge and Harbaugh sucks because we got our ass kicked. We were going to get best against Iowa and it was a huge game for Harbaugh, until we won, now they weren’t even good and our defense didn’t actually play well. 

Beilein 4 Life

October 7th, 2019 at 3:43 PM ^

In other words, you’ll be skeptical until PSU. Then if they play well but don’t get a shutout, you’ll be skeptical until next year because we don’t have any big road games this year. Then next year you won’t be on board with them until they “Rutgers” a top 15 team and hold them to negative yards rushing while letting up less than 3 points on the road. Then, since obviously that offense wasn’t good so it was an easy “Rutgers,” you’ll be skeptical until they can hold OSU to less than 10 yards of total offense on the road, on perfect weather conditions (because if it is raining, it would be easy to hold them under 10 yards so you’d be skeptical). Trust me, if holding a top 15 team to under 300 yards of total offense with 1 yard rushing while forcing 4 turnovers and having 8 sacks and 13 tackles for loss is a reason for skepticism on your part, you aren’t going to be happy no matter what the defense does from here on out.

Beilein 4 Life

October 7th, 2019 at 6:40 PM ^

Florida was a bowl game and I was told those don’t count. I did notice you only went back to OSU though and missed our defense dominating PSU and Wisconsin last year.

People are going to be skeptical because they will pick out whatever game or games fit their narrative. Then they will completely ignore anything that doesn’t. I would say taking the entire year as a barometer of the defense is the best bet, but some people don’t want to hear that good offenses will score points on any defense at any time. I’m not saying our performance against OSU was acceptable, but taking a huge outlier and saying you’re skeptical is joe concern trolling works.

When you look at last year’s defense, of course you don’t like the way they played against OSU, but we were one of the best defenses in the country. That is why no matter what we do, unless we pitch shutouts, people will be uneasy about one of the best defenses in the nation over the past couple years with Brown here.

lilpenny1316

October 7th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^

All I'll say is this: Please don't waste the best trio of WRs that Michigan has had since Derrick Alexander, Amani Toomer and Mercury Hayes.  Throw the dang ball and loosen up the defense.  We had a couple nice runs on the missed FG drive in the second half after Shea threw the ball to his WRs.