November 26th, 2011 at 9:49 PM ^
Not quite yet. We have to move up one more spot, and it's not looking like anybody we need to lose is gonna lose today, so we'll have to wait till next week. I think that between Okie St/ OU, MSU/UW, and LSU/UGa, we'll get one team we need to lose, so we'll probably make it.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:02 PM ^
we'll probably drop to 16 this week, with wisco likely jumping us
However, one of wisc/msu will lose, so that pretty much just leaves Georgia as our must-lose game.
If georgia wins, they lock up another bcs spot, AND may keep us from breaking into the top 14.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:09 PM ^
Georgia is going to get absolutely dump-trucked
November 26th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^
yea, i think michigan will be as low as 17 in the ranking all depends on how the Clemson finishes. If Clemson win, where will Michigan/S.Car/Clem rank?
So, with everyone talking about Michigan going to the Suger, what about if they dont make it? how come nobody comment on that. Capital One? vs Georgia/ Arkans?
November 26th, 2011 at 10:31 PM ^
I doubt clemson jumps michigan if they win.
However, if they go on to beat Va Tech, I could see them jumping michigan (which would end up the same outcome as clemson losing tonight anyways).
If michigan doesn't play a bcs game, they will probably play arkansas in the capital one bowl.
November 26th, 2011 at 11:01 PM ^
Clemson is getting spanked anyways. Sparty will lose, Georgia will lose, Oklahoma should lose, and KState might also lose, though its not likely. Va Tech has a reasonable shot at losing to Clemson (again) in the ACC Championship too.
November 26th, 2011 at 9:51 PM ^
We need to move up to top 14 (we are 15 right now), which should not be a problem with all the conference championship games left. And then yes we are a very attractive at large team. It is looking good, but as always not a done deal.
November 26th, 2011 at 9:52 PM ^
as long as Georgia loses to LSU we're in
November 26th, 2011 at 9:54 PM ^
As long as Wisconsin or MSU loses we should be in.
Sooooo...we're good to go.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:02 PM ^
Winner of that game either stays in front of, or jumps, us. We need Georgia to lose (in atleast a mildly convincing manner) or Oklahoma to get run by Okie State. The Ducks losing to UCLA would be a clincher too.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:16 PM ^
nope. Georgia winning would take our spot. Even if michigan were to finish #10, they wouldn't get an at large bid over stanford
November 27th, 2011 at 12:32 AM ^
over us if we finish in the top 14. We are the most attractive at large team out there.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:49 PM ^
wouldn't the winner of that game go to the rose bowl automatically, & thus not compete with us for a bowl appearance?
November 26th, 2011 at 10:12 PM ^
so a Wiscy loss won't help. Also, I'd expect Wiscy to jump us w/ a win over Sparty. Either way, we'll be behind the B1G champ game winner & ahead of the B1G champ game loser.
Possibilities (some extremely unlikely, but still possible)
13 |
10-2 |
L vs LSU next week & falls |
|
12 |
9-2 |
L vs Clem (up 14 start of 4th qtr) & Clemson does not jump us Ensured w/ Clem L in ACC championship game |
|
11 |
9-2 |
L vs Iowa State next week |
|
10 |
10-2 |
L vs 6-5 UCLA next week |
|
9 |
9-2 |
L vs #4 Oklahoma St next wk |
|
8 |
12-0 |
L vs 10-2 S. Miss in ConfUSA championship game |
|
7 |
10-1 |
L vs 1-10 New Mexico next week obviously, extremely unlikely unless Boise forgets to show up (literally) |
|
5 |
11-1 |
Blowout L vs Clem in ACC champ game (despite ranking, VT hasn't beaten anybody of note) |
November 26th, 2011 at 9:55 PM ^
November 26th, 2011 at 10:16 PM ^
and it can't take a team from its conference affiliation (SEC).
Thus, the Sugar Bowl takes the most attractive at-large team, which will be Michigan if we are Top 14-elgible.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:50 PM ^
Only thing stopping them from taking an SEC team would be the 2-team limit. What the rule says that (I think) you're referring to is that, say LSU were playing Oklahoma in the championship game, the Sugar couldn't take a Big 12 team unless the Fiesta (the Big 12 affiliate bowl) consented. Not that they can't take a team from their own conference affiliation - in fact, the rule is there to protect their ability to do so.
November 26th, 2011 at 9:56 PM ^
Honestly what does it matter if Georgia wins or loses? I thought only two schools, max from the same conference could go to BCS bowls.
November 26th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^
November 26th, 2011 at 10:38 PM ^
If neither of the two in the championship game won that conference.
November 26th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^
but LSU and Alabama will still be in the championship game. Conference can get 3 teams if neither of the two teams in the national championship game are not the conference champion (which sounds insane, but could actually happen if Georgia beats LSU).
November 26th, 2011 at 10:02 PM ^
Wow didn't reallythink of that scenerio. I for one hope there is no rematch! If Michigan didn't get one in 06 why would Alabama get one this year? I think Alabama is the better team, but they had their shot give the Big 12 winner a shot or God forbid Houston and 12th year QB Chase Keenum.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:11 PM ^
It sucks, but there's a precedent. Florida-FSU rematched in the pre-BCS days in the Sugar Bowl for the title.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:23 PM ^
ASU was number 2 and had to play in the Rose Bowl. Only became a "national title" game after ASU lost to Ohio. Doing it now is completely ridiculous.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:01 PM ^
If Georgia wins the SEC Championship, and LSU and Bama are 1-2, then the SEC could get 3 teams.
http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.
I don't know how to do block quotes, but that is from the BCS website.
November 26th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^
for the Sugar Bowl?
November 26th, 2011 at 10:00 PM ^
Houston is the most likely if they win out. If not, Georgia if they win the SEC (although as someone said above, we might be out in that case) or Stanford. Oklahoma State would also be possible if they lose to Oklahoma.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:02 PM ^
Houston if they win out. Possibly TCU if Houston loses and the frogs sneak up to 16 in the BCS.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:03 PM ^
This article from ESPN makes a passing reference to Michigan ending up in the Orange.
November 26th, 2011 at 11:46 PM ^
I was in the press box today and there were representatives there from the Rose (??) and Orange bowl. No one (that I noticed) from the other BCS bowls.
November 26th, 2011 at 11:58 PM ^
Niether team is playing in the B1G Championship. Are you sure it was not the Sugar Bowl people?
November 27th, 2011 at 12:05 AM ^
Nope. I double checked the press box attendance list and there were even a couple people who mentioned that they got rose bowl pins in the elevator. It didn't make any sense.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:04 PM ^
We'll finsih in the top 14. No question.
Sugar will get first choice of teams, and we'll likely be it. Crazy. Only way I can see it going any other way is if Oklahoma State loses to OU on some fluke and somehow seems like a more attractive opponent for Houston, which the Sugar Bowl will almost assuredly take with its second selection. No way Stanford is a team that they want given the likely opponent.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:11 PM ^
How is it "no question"
other than the MSU/Wisc game (the winner of which will be ranked higher) there only scenario I see getting us in the BCS is:
Georgia MUST lose
There is no scenario I see that has Georgia winning and michigan getting picked as the only at large team above Andrew Luck and Stanford. You are seriously underestimating the Luck effect.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:24 PM ^
... everything is out the window, but not because Michigan doesn;t finsih in the top 14 of the BCS rankings. Michigan is likely out no matter whether it is in the top 14 or not. My "no question" comment was about whether or not we finish in the top 14 in a scenario that matters.
I don't see LSU losing to Georgia, but if it does, and LSU/Bama finish 1/2, which they likely still would - a) LSU still has a beter resume than any other 1-loss team, and b) voters wouldn not want to give Bama a benefit for losing to LSU at home - there will be three SEC teams in BCS bowls (UGA still gets the Sugar) and, with Houston a likely AQ, only one at large bid left, which the Fiesta would get to select, and I agree with you that it would most likely be Stanford.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:32 PM ^
effect
November 26th, 2011 at 10:39 PM ^
Stanford doesn't travel. It's about money, not quality of play.
November 26th, 2011 at 11:09 PM ^
Do not underestimate the Shoelace factor.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:09 PM ^
If Boise State finishes ranked higher than Houston don't they get the non-AQ autobid?
November 26th, 2011 at 10:13 PM ^
TCU won their conference over boise. Autobid only goes to a top 12 mid-major conference CHAMPION (ie. houston)
November 26th, 2011 at 11:17 PM ^
Ah that's it. I thought there was something that was keeping them out, but I couldn't remember what it was. Thanks!
November 26th, 2011 at 10:20 PM ^
that Wiscomsin is going to jump Michigan - that will put both
Sparty and Wisky ahead of us. The loser of that game will only move us back up to 15 again. We must have Georgia lose - also would like Okie state to beat the sooners. Possibly Iowa State beating Kansas State next week as well. Those are the scenarios that will make the BCS happen.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:35 PM ^
The loser of Wisconsin -MSU will have 3 losses and will not finish ahead of Michigan in the BCS poll.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:25 PM ^
.....there is the double-elimination cribbage competition to consider before any bowl bids are secured.
November 26th, 2011 at 10:34 PM ^
okay so if georgia loses, michigan is in?
November 26th, 2011 at 10:35 PM ^
Can't resist. Hey ohio.......
PIZZA PIZZA!
November 26th, 2011 at 10:51 PM ^
As long as Georgia loses and the Big Ten Title game has a winner we will be in the BCS. Oklahoma losing to Okie State would clinch it.
November 26th, 2011 at 11:17 PM ^
What if OSU beats OU but LSU loses to Georgia?
November 26th, 2011 at 11:21 PM ^
Very clear.
November 26th, 2011 at 11:23 PM ^
my flight to N.O. so GA better loose.