Speight vs Rudock: a statistical comparison through 7 games
I got a lot of positive feedback from my 6 week qb comparison, so I thought I'd make it a weekly post. Data:
RUDOCK | |||||||||||
2015 | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rat | ||
1 | Utah | 27 | 43 | 62.8 | 279 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2 | 3 | 118.7 | |
2 | OR St | 18 | 26 | 69.2 | 180 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 0 | 1 | 119.7 | |
3 | UNLV | 14 | 22 | 63.6 | 123 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 116.5 | |
4 | BYU | 14 | 25 | 56 | 194 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 1 | 0 | 134.4 | |
5 | Maryland | 16 | 32 | 50 | 180 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 1 | 1 | 101.3 | |
6 | NW | 17 | 23 | 73.9 | 179 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0 | 0 | 139.3 | |
7 | Mich St | 15 | 25 | 60.0 | 168 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 | 116.4 | |
121 | 196 | 61.7 | 1303 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5 | 6 | 119.9 | |||
season | 249 | 389 | 64.0 | 3017 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 20 | 9 | 141.5 | ||
W-L thru 6 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||
SOS thru 6 | 24th | ||||||||||
opp W-L | 22- | 17 | 56.4% | ||||||||
SPEIGHT | |||||||||||
2016 | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rat | ||
1 | Hawaii | 10 | 13 | 76.9 | 145 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 3 | 1 | 231.4 | |
2 | UCF | 25 | 37 | 67.6 | 312 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 4 | 0 | 174.1 | |
3 | Colorado | 16 | 30 | 53.3 | 229 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 1 | 0 | 128.5 | |
4 | Penn St | 21 | 34 | 61.8 | 189 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 1 | 0 | 118.2 | |
5 | Wisconsin | 20 | 32 | 62.5 | 219 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 1 | 1 | 124.1 | |
6 | Rutgers | 6 | 13 | 46.2 | 100 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 1 | 0 | 136.2 | |
7 | Illinois | 16 | 23 | 69.6 | 253 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 2 | 0 | 190.7 | |
114 | 182 |
|
1447 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 13 | 2 | 150.8 | |||
W-L thru 6 | 7 | 0 | |||||||||
SOS thru 6 | 18th | ||||||||||
opp W-L | 26- | 19 | 57.8% |
Last year's narrative was about the 2nd half improvement Rudock made, seemingly right after M's BYE week (which was between game 7 and 8). Only time will tell if Speight makes a similar level of improvement, but he's off to a great start statistically after his BYE improvement week, going 16-23 for 253 yds and a qb rating of 190.7!
October 26th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^
It will be even better after this week.
October 26th, 2016 at 2:47 PM ^
That help stat a lot!
October 26th, 2016 at 8:52 PM ^
That helps your completion percentage but unless you're throwing away against Woodson you don't get picked off doing that or anything... and getting sacked doesn't help gain yardage
October 26th, 2016 at 6:14 PM ^
He had an AWESOME game versus Illinois. His best of the year.
But he's not killing it, however, if he has a progression anything close to Rudock he's going to be freaky good down in Columbus when compared to his play earlier in the year.
Sure there are some disclaimers in that he's got a better OL and run game and hasn't done anything like @Utah on the road.
But his progression post improvement week was so encouraging that I'm all in on Speight. He went from a a guy that I just crossed my fingers and hoped he wouldn't mess things up (which he never did) to a guy who was dropping dimes all over the field, pinpoint, on time passes. I'm all in.
I feel like we should start O'Korn versus Maryland just so Speight can do more self scouting. If this is the improvement bump he gets? It'd be more than worth it if he keeps doing what he's doing (I'm kidding).
He's not killing it, but he's getting there.
October 26th, 2016 at 2:34 PM ^
Last year State was vulnerable to the deep ball. Every team they beat was either not smart enough or skilled enough to exploit that. Unfortunately we played them before Rudock really got locked in. If we had played them just a few weeks later, I really do think we would have won comfortably. Oh well.
This year they're vulnerable to the everything. It should go better.
October 26th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
to Sparty's butter.
October 26th, 2016 at 3:07 PM ^
Building on that, I think it's safe to say Michigan is more like a blender than just a hot knife to Sparty's butter.
October 26th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^
Sparty's tears taste like melted butter.
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October 26th, 2016 at 2:41 PM ^
hello, Heisman!
October 26th, 2016 at 2:42 PM ^
I'm on the record as being pessimistic about Speight's ability to mirror Rudock's improvement, since I feel that Rudock needed time to gain comfort in the offense and re-assert play he was already capable of, where Speight is younger and has yet to prove able to play at that level.
But his bye week comments and his performance Saturday were everything I could want. So there's hope for me.
It is interesting that this cutoff is right after the MSU game last season. Rudock was a big reason why that game was close enough to lose in the first place, stopping a number of drives that could have given us a cushion. That's his low point of the year right there.
Though it's also worth noting that in the next game Rudock got knocked out against Minnesota and Speight finished the game. We remember what happened there.
October 26th, 2016 at 2:43 PM ^
Nice comparison. Even if Speight is better just because we have a better running game, our overall offense is better and that is what is most important.
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October 26th, 2016 at 2:44 PM ^
Holy less passes thrown Batman!!!
October 26th, 2016 at 2:50 PM ^
You might be comparing Rudock's End of Year to Speight's Mid-Year. Rudock had 196 attempts to Speights 182 attempts, through 7.
October 26th, 2016 at 3:02 PM ^
That is exactly what happened. Holy slightly fewer passes thrown Batman!
October 26th, 2016 at 3:22 PM ^
Have to also remember that Rudock played the entire game last year, that's not the case this year. So attempts per minutes played is probably up by a decent number. Maybe. Hypothetically.
October 26th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^
Our run game wasn't so great last year until the bowl game. We're getting a lot more yards on the ground this season.
October 26th, 2016 at 4:15 PM ^
...against Rutgers, at least a full quarter against Hawaii and Illinois, and bits and pieces against various other tomato cans. Speight has probably played 1 to 1.5 fewer games at this point than Rudock. He's been very good for stretches, but in Rudock's defense, I thing 2 picks for Speight is artificially low. There has been at 3-4 balls that should have been picks, but were just dropped.
October 26th, 2016 at 3:00 PM ^
FEWER passes.
October 26th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^
I dunno. I thought Rudock's passes were more big-league as well.
October 26th, 2016 at 2:46 PM ^
Do we have one of these every week?
October 26th, 2016 at 7:53 PM ^
We do now :)
October 26th, 2016 at 2:51 PM ^
I asked this last time and I don't think you responded. Where are you getting this DoS from. I'm quite confident it's not 18th in the country.
October 26th, 2016 at 3:06 PM ^
Looks like it's coming from here:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength…
October 26th, 2016 at 3:18 PM ^
I can't say I have ever heard of that site before, but at least it came from somewhere.
October 26th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
yeah, I couldn't find another site with SOS data per week, just cumulative SOS. Cumulative data is obviously fine for this season but hard to use for last season.
October 26th, 2016 at 4:48 PM ^
Sagarin has us at 50, which makes much more sense
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October 26th, 2016 at 2:52 PM ^
Ruddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddock*
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October 26th, 2016 at 3:04 PM ^
Nice post. One thing I think Speight has benefited from this season is excellent field position. The combination of our excellent defense and Peppers returning punts and kicks have given Wilton short fields to work with the vast majority of the time. Per Football Outsiders, Michigan is #1 in the country in offensive starting field position. (In case you were wondering, MSU is #112.)
I also think he's benefitting from a better running game than we had last year. Regardless, he's getting the job done. The touchdown to turnover ratio is my favorite stat.
October 26th, 2016 at 3:06 PM ^
If I remember correctly from my reading this morning, that QB rating of 150.8 is comfortably 25th in the whole of FBS play (Logan Woodside at Toledo has a QB rating of 200.8 and is #1), but it is tied for second in the Big Ten with only Perry Hills being slightly higher at 151.8 (Speight is tied with J.T. Barrett on this stat).
October 26th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^
I don't forsee a 2nd half for Speight that compares to Rudock. Last season, we needed to rely on Rudock to move the ball.
This year, we're so balanced it's unreal. Throw in the fact that we have games against Maryland, IU, and Iowa, which could all be over by halftime, and I don't see Speight putting up anywhere close to the numbers Rudock did.
His passer rating will still be sky high, he just won't have the gaudy numbers to back it up.
October 26th, 2016 at 8:04 PM ^
1st half compared when we get to that point in the season. Regardless we should be thrilled with Wilton's leadership of this offense. He is going to have a great career not only at Michigan but in the NFL.
QB U is back and going to be better than ever.
October 26th, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^
Gotta update your thru 6. States W-L thru 6 is 7-0.
October 26th, 2016 at 4:19 PM ^
Those SOS numbers make no sense to me. Utah and Colorado are comparable if we're being generous to Colorado, BYU and PSU are comparable, MSU and Wisconsin are comparable, and NW was better than anyone else on this year's schedule so far.
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October 26th, 2016 at 4:28 PM ^
As much as I'd love to watch us run for 400 yds against State this weekend, I hope this is the week Speight takes a leap. Jim and Wilton should be able to take advantage of MSU's terrible secondary
October 26th, 2016 at 4:32 PM ^
I have nothing wrong with comparing the two guys but people seem to overlook a couple things when talking about Speight making a Rudock type leap. Speight is greatly outperforming Rudock at this point in their respective seasons, as the data show. Completion % is a bit better, but most importantly INTs and Speight can actually hit a deep ball. So if Speight were to have the same relative jump in performance, that would put him in the Heisman race...
Speight isn't going to have the same relative jump in performance because the situations are completely different: RS soph who has been around and played snaps last year vs. proven grad transfer who had to learn the offense in a couple months. But Speight doesn't need a Rudock jump. He just needs the incremental improvement that you would hope out of a RS soph QB... He already has proven to be very solid, good at taking care of the ball, can make some amazing throws, and can finish games.
TL;DR: Speight doesn't need a Rudock-level jump and he's not going to have one. Holding his trajectory steady should be good enough to get us to the playoffs.
October 26th, 2016 at 9:29 PM ^
Let's not forget... Jake was a 5th year Senior with tons of experience. Wilton is a RS SO at the halfway point of his first season as a starter.
I'm not saying one is better than the other. I think both will have done a very good job captaining the ship during 2 of the best seasons UofM has experienced since the Carr era... But if there is an argument to be made now... Well then, I'd expect Speight to only improve and gain more poise and confidence as time goes on. I don't think it's far fetched to see him becoming the best QB in the Big Ten next year and possibly even the country. Sure his throwing motion looks a bit strange, but that's something you can deal with and overcome at the college level, especially with plenty of talent around you. Just ask Tim Tebow.
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October 26th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^
So Speight is better than Rudock was in every statistical catergory through seven, and he's a sophomore. No bad at all.
October 26th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^
Surprising to me to see that Rudock had double Speight's passing yards and attempts and slightly better percentage, 20:13 td's, yet still had lower qb rating. Must be the 9 interceptions to Speight's 2.
October 26th, 2016 at 7:05 PM ^
Could be you are looking at Rudock's full-year stats?
October 26th, 2016 at 11:11 PM ^
You're kidding right? I hope you don't work with numbers at your day job.
October 26th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^
At least the calls to start O'Korn have died down. Speight is doing a really good job. O'korn seems to tuck and run at the first sign of pressure, which isn't always a bad thing, but I think he overestimates his speed and what kind of yardage he can get that way.
Remembering Rudock and watching Speight this season makes me wonder if Harbaugh is less a fan of athletic ability than he is intelligence and football IQ. Now that's just an impression, and there's not really any statistics that can prove such a claim, but whatever Harbaugh's approach, it's working. I also would not be surpised to see Speight as a round 2 or 3 NFL draft pick in a few years.
October 26th, 2016 at 7:25 PM ^
It may be that in the 10-15 yard range, both QBs are pretty close, but in that 20 yard+ range, Speight graded out better. Deep throws and accurate throws are probably what won him the job.
October 26th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^
Speight is much better throwing the deep ball then rudock was that the Key
October 26th, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^
When Speight is interviewed in street clothes, you can see that he is a pretty huge guy with massive shoulders. Physically I underestimated how muscular he actually is. He is also very well-spoken, humble and analytical.
October 26th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^
I saw him help an elderly lady cross the street.
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October 26th, 2016 at 6:28 PM ^
He also threw his coat over a puddle for his girlfriend.
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October 26th, 2016 at 6:32 PM ^
He also rescued a kitten from a tree
October 27th, 2016 at 12:22 AM ^
I hear that he is working on a solution to fix ObamaCare too...stay tuned!
October 26th, 2016 at 7:41 PM ^
Hopefully Speight gets to the level where he is no longer compared to Rudock. I'm sorry but Rudock was an average quarterback. Speight is our best option now and continues to play smart. I know I've been hard on him during games but nobody wants him to do as well as I do. We have a special chance this year and so much is riding on Wiltons shoulders. I hope he continues to improve and keeps winning games.
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