SIAP: Dabo and Ed are both confident that there'll be a college football season
Based on absolutely nothing but hope.
Thank you Dabo Swinney, MD.
And what's wrong with someone being hopeful?
It's April 3rd. It's not like we need to make a decision anytime soon (today, this week, this month, or next month) as regards college football in the fall.
There's nothing wrong with some hope from Dabo and Ed.
He didn't say he was hopeful. He said he has zero doubt they would be playing. That's not the same.
EDIT: that's for Dabo only.
A distinction without a difference. Having zero doubt is being hopeful.
No difference?
You can be hopeful about something while at the same time acknowledging that it might not go your way. Like, for instance, when Michigan plays Ohio State in football. Asking that hot co-worker for a date. Buying a lotto ticket. Lining up for a 30-foot putt.
"Zero doubt" admits of no such uncertainty.
Agree. Sorta like when the weatherman says there is a 100% chance of rain in the forecast. You have moved from a forecast to a guarantee.
How is having no doubts not being hopeful, though? It is, by its very essence, hopeful.
No, it's not. By removing doubts, there is nothing to hope for or against since you are operating in a single state reality, using singular assumptions.
Having hope, by definition, requires the exact opposite of zero doubts. It is to want something to happen that might not happen. It is not to know something will happen, which is what you'd be saying if you had zero doubts.
I get what you're saying. His intention is to be extremely hopeful. But what we're saying is that technically he's saying that he knows there will be a season, but he doesn't know.
I fully understand why he'd be so confident though. He needs guys to stay focused, and stay in shape, etc. in case there is a season. He doesn't want them to have any doubts.
Hopeful =\= certain
You can be certain and hopeful. But you can certainly be hopeful without being certain.
What else is he supposed to say? I thought Herbstreit was way too premature in his announcement of college football being cancelled.
Looking at the spread and adding any effects of warm weather, the virus should be fairly ubiquitous by then.
The problem is the initial surge and the secondary surge we will have once we officially can’t quarantine for any longer.
Stadiums might have to be empty to prevent a tertiary surge w/ possible reinfection but I highly doubt the whole season will be 86’d.
I agree.
Its too premature to know where society is going to be. A couple of the ADs were discussing certain landmarks being hit before decisions were made. Kids going back to school for summer classes, fall classes etc.
If we can get widespread testing based on antibody immunity and find a majority of the population has had the virus and recovered that would be a game changer. Things are grim now but it doesn’t make sense to make some of those decisions just yet.
I think the point is that to be so bullish suggests that he's not fully grasping the seriousness and potential duration of this thing. Cautious optimism would be the responsible tack. Otherwise he just comes off sounding like another ignorant Southern dumbshit coach.
It’s hard for me to imagine playing college football in empty stadiums. So it’s not safe for fans but cool for 100 players to risk infection?
If you have testing available and can do it frequently, then yes. It is not impossible to test few hundred people involved every few days to make sure there is no one infected. But who know when that level of testing will be available?
There is only the slightest of a chance that college campuses K-12 will be opening this Fall. Protection of children will take precedence.
Hopefully certain return to work parameters develop which slowly allows for additional segments to be back and running under new guidelines.
Great hoping coaches, but the season is going to be very difficult. Lack of athlete conditioning alone will become an issue quickly, as facilities are not open.
How is that going to happen.
We might be able to attend weddings, funerals, showers, concerts, movies eventually, but no way are kids going to placed in direct contact.
Dabo built Clemson with hope, Jesus, and bagmen. He's half preacher, half football coach...so his take makes sense.
Lets all be fair. If you saw how hot my Sparty crush was, you would understand why I am this way.
Not a chance.
How about a pic to prove she's real?
Manti is that you?
You want me to take a pic of her from my HS yearbook? Sorry but that's too embarrassing for me.
Untreated syphilis is a bitch.
Neither are doctors or scientists so it means nothing.
This is the right answer for a coach. Expect to play and plan on having your team enthusiastically ready in 5 months. It’s nice to hear.
There's literally no reason for a coach to think otherwise right now. If we are still under lockdown, or drastic gathering restrictions, in June, then things begin to look shaky.
On April 3rd, with the Washington model having the US peaking in 2 weeks, there's no reason for football programs to think football won't happen. ADs aren't going to kill the sport that keeps all other sports alive until they absolutely have to, which is not for a while.
That model has the US peaking in 2 weeks assuming the entire country is shut down and people are not going within 6 feet of one another. Those aren't conditions under which football can be played so there are plenty of reasons to think football might not happen.
We have no idea if that peak was caused by just a few hundred thousand people being infected, which would mean literally everyone is still at risk and we'll be going through waves of this for a while.
For the record, I think that's on the bad side of the possibilities spectrum and I think football happens but it won't be with fans. Just my prediction based on two things: 1) We should be able to test the participants such that their risk of spreading amongst one another will be slow, but 2) per scientists we almost certainly won't have a vaccine yet and I can't see them putting thousands of fans into stadiums without a vaccine.
There is a best case scenario that a lot more people have had it than we know about and hence a lot more people are immune and it's less dangerous than we think. That could make us confident in having fans. But that's a far tail end of possible scenarios, as a best-case tends to be.
The problem is the "peak" and the timeline for it are totally artificial. They exist because we are choosing when to peak based on the lockdowns and social distancing. The only thing that is keeping the case rate down is our collective social distancing. There is no treatment and no vaccine. There is a dam with a hole in it, and we have our finger plugging the hole. As soon as we take our finger out of the hole, water will leak through the dam again. We need to plug the hole with something more permanent to have a prayer of playing sports again. As soon as restrictions lift, we will have another curve with another peak.
One permanent solution is a vaccine, which is a year away. Another permanent solution is an effective treatment that allows for the person to contract the virus and not suffer from it. No indication either of those solutions are rapidly approaching. The last permanent solution is saying fuck it, lifting the restrictions, and letting the curve peak and die out through herd immunity. That may wrap this whole deal up by the summer, but it will also infect 80% of the country, kill millions, and collapse the hospital infrastructure. Not great!
Sports probably aren't happening. For a while. If you want to have some hope for a "normal" summer and fall, hope for a treatment that works to stem the tide while the vaccine progresses through trials.
What do you do when your poop cooler has a hole in it? Just curious
look at the bright side, at least michigan will get a one year reprieve from losing to ohio state by 20 again.
jon,
in case you hadn't realized it, we beat you in risk last year. i think. so there.
hope you are well. still going in to work or have they kind of put the brakes on that?
well, as luck would have it, i changed jobs beginning feb. 1 to a new firm that doesn't have an office and we all work from home. so my new place was already formatted to the mandated working from home situation the rest of pennsylvania workers' comp. now finds itself in, ha. i don't know of any firms that are physically open right now. philly has had a stay at home order in effect. i think everyone is working from home, including the judges.
it's been a pretty easy transition to conducting telephonic hearings and deps. the future of the defense side of this practice is all WFH anyway, so maybe this will nudge the rest of the firms in that direction permanently. unfortunately, i have a closet full of suits just sitting here taking up space, and i never thought i'd be speaking to a judge while sitting here in pajama pants, but here we are.
hope you're still well too.
Congrats on the new gig. I remember you were thinking of changing lanes and kudos to you for making the change. Can be a nervous time.
we are well here. Fortunately all the kids are home. Living on the farm we are kind of uber-prepared for the zombie apocalypse just by the inherent nature of the endeavor.
kinda jealous you live somewhere right now that isn't on top of 5,000 other people at once ha
well, you come visit. we are about 65 people per square mile, and you can gerrymander a 2-3 mile box around the farm and pretty much have our family, or one or two others. there are worse fates in life.
just make sure you leave your scarlet and gray stuff at home.
Damn you!
I think you're right. I'd just add that everyone is just assuming a vaccine is coming after a year. There's absolutely no evidence to suggest this is anywhere near a sure bet. Could be a year, best case. Could be 2 years. Could be never.
Peaking in 2 weeks IF;
Every state shut down
Behavior in grocery stores was proper.
No one allowed to enter a facility without temperature scan.
Since that isn't going to happen, any and all projections are flawed.
This isn't China, where the government can shut it down under threat.
You let me know how that 2 week peak works out.
There will be a season all right. The real question is when?
As a coach it’s the right thing for him to say. If he says there won’t be, it gives his team an excuse to slack off and not get ready.
That being said, realistically, I don’t see how this season happens. Zero hope for a vaccine by the time the season starts. Absolutely zero. We may not even have working, reliable medication to combat the virus by then. Hell, we may only get a working vaccine by the time the 2021 season starts, and you still want to cram 80,000-100,000 fans in the stands from all corners of the country every Saturday in dozens of stadiums?
Even if the season does happen, it’s going to be drastically altered in some form or another. Either there will be no fans in the stands, the season will start late, no OOC games (which would cripple G5 and FCS programs), or there might even be a handful of programs that still refuse to let their players take the field until a working vaccine is made available. And then your season turns into even more of a scheduling nightmare.
I want football too, but I’m preparing to find other hobbies. I don’t realistically expect football back in any form, college or pro, until Fall 2021.
Yep, pretty much my line of thinking. Nothing wrong with a little hope, but in this case it is probably false hope.
I was just talking with some OSU buddies about this the other day (I know, I know, but they're good people). I don't see any way they're going to let 100k people into a stadium by fall with no vaccine or treatment readily available. I'm really hoping there will be something available by basketball season with the incoming recruiting class, but I'm not keeping my hopes up.
The probably most realistic scenario that might allow for it to happen would be widespread home-processed testing for antibodies and hope that this thing isn’t mutating significantly and that the existing antibodies grant some degree of lasting immunity. That would give us a sense of just how many people have already had it and might not know or know for sure. If it’s a significant portion of the population, we’ve scaled up our medical resources, and have some precautions in place it may be possible to resume playing the game but even that’s a slim chance at best and likely would not see an opportunity for full crowds at games. Maybe friends/family only or something and we watch on TV?
If the situation is still so volatile and so risky that you won't have fans, how do you run the risk of exposing players, coaches, TV personnel, etc. to risk? I'm more concerned about unleashing what is getting close to 50,000 students for fall semester and the potential for massive spread here as well as other campuses.
This is all predicated on no vaccine, no effective treatment and only modest herd immunity.
And...the economic impact of what we are going through is only beginning to be felt. Lots of people are going to be thinking twice about ticket costs.
you still want to cram 80,000-100,000 fans in the stands from all corners of the country every Saturday in dozens of stadiums?
Why does everybody assume fans are needed to play football? They're not; they're completely extraneous.
there might even be a handful of programs that still refuse to let their players take the field until a working vaccine is made available.
Then they lose by forfeit and the season continues.
It's amazing how easily solved all of your problems are. If this is best argument you can come up with for cancelling football, then I'm quite confident football will be played.
I don’t assume fans are needed to play. My point is that even if football is played this season, it’s not going to be under the same circumstances it always is.
Okay, so they forfeit and move on. Are you going to take that all into account come playoff or bowl selection time? What if Alabama had three opponents cancel, but Michigan had one? What if Alabama had LSU and Auburn cancel, but Michigan only had Purdue or Rutgers cancel? Are you going to hold everyone to the same SOS standard?
Dabo's logic is probably that God will fix this Virus by football season because God loves football.
Seriously.
God does love football but did NOT make Notre Dame #1.
Do they realize bagmen can't buy off COVID-19?
The plus side of not having a College Football season is that Michigan will avoid another OSU loss for the first time since 2011.