Michigan4Life

January 29th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^

I know someone who was at Mobile. He told me that Nico is at his best working deep. If you ask him to do anything else, he isn't good. He lacked the separation and agility to break free from DBs which sounds about right to me.  The expectation is day 2 likely 3rd round for Nico but it's a deep WR class that he could be pushed down the board for that reason

MGolem

January 29th, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^

Was watching Senior Bowl practices the past couple of days and the analysts were very complimentary of Nico saying he and the WR from WMU were the two best in attendance. It sounds like his shake isn’t great (which isn’t a surprise considering his frame) but that his long speed, and catch radius were very good. Looks like a young Mike Evans to me. 

1VaBlue1

January 29th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^

If he's pushing off in a way that doesn't get called, that only improves his draft grade.  I don't think its possible, on a consistent basis, to get good separation from an NFL DB if you can't push off effectively without getting caught.  I will be interested, though, to see Nico go over the middle and catch tough balls consistently.  I'm sure he can do it, but he was never asked to at Michigan so it will have to be proven.

Thanks for the summary here....

outsidethebox

January 29th, 2021 at 8:45 AM ^

Nico is very good...was severely under/miss-used. Thomas was/is not particularly well-coached. St-Juste > Thomas. The story of Michigan football the last several years.

1VaBlue1

January 29th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^

You're first sentence was good.  But I don't get where you say Thomas was poorly coached.  He was every bit as good as Lavert Hill - if not better (probably better) - when they were both being coached by one of the better CB coaches in the game.  I'd take Thomas over St. Juste in a heartbeat fed by adrenaline...

outsidethebox

January 29th, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^

He got torched on almost every matchup-and it is usually not even close. Clearly he was not taught how to assess a situation and make adjustments-that's what coaching is all about...hence my judgement. No amount of negging refutes this reality. Every assignment is about winning that battle...this was not a live game situation-make the adjustments.

MGoStrength

January 29th, 2021 at 7:47 PM ^

Clearly he was not taught how to assess a situation and make adjustments-that's what coaching is all about...hence my judgement. 

I'm gonna disagree.  I think in an open skill, which is an unpredictable situation like a ball sport versus a closed skill which you know exactly what is going to happen like golf, being able to quickly in real time assess a situation & react well is the essence of athleticism and is primarily God given and difficult if not impossible to teach.  This is what makes people like Deion Sanders, Wayne Gretzky, Michael Jordan, etc. so good.  They could do it from the minute they tried and no coach was going to mess them up or had to teach them how.  They also are rarely the biggest, fastest, or strongest, but they are the best because of this skill.  As Dr. Stu McGill says,

The best athletes rarely outperform their peers in pre-season testing like bench pressing and squatting. Their distinguishing qualities are motor control. The ability to exert strength quickly, deactivate muscle quickly, and optimally project forces throughout the body linkage is characteristic of this skill.

MGoStrength

January 29th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^

He was every bit as good as Lavert Hill - if not better (probably better)

I don't have a strong opinion on this because I haven't watched enough film on both guys.  But, I can say their college careers were not the same.  Hill was more accomplished at UM.  Lavert played quite a bit as a true freshman, then as a sophomore was a starter full time and second team all conference.  As a junior he was first team all B1G and 3rd team All American.  Ambry was for the most part about a year behind in his development from Lavert.  As a freshman Ambry played only on special teams, then as a sophomore he did the same but got some playing time in garbage time at CB.  Ambry's sophomore year was like Lavert's freshman year.  It was not until Ambry's junior year that he became a starter where he earned 3rd team all B1G recognition.  And, he never played his senior year.  So, all in all Hill was a 3x all B1G performer making the first team once and three year starter whereas Thomas was only a 1x all B1G performer making only 3rd team and only started for one year.

MGoStrength

January 29th, 2021 at 9:03 AM ^

Long story short, you can get into Nico's hip pocket, but that doens't mean you can prevent him from catching the ball...great hands, great timing, can go up and get it when contested.  Also, Ambry is fast, but does not have quick feet and struggles with his lateral movement and stop and start and is easily beaten off the line or got behind the WR's with moves on several occasions.

bronxblue

January 29th, 2021 at 10:19 AM ^

I do think people are reading too much into a couple of clips.  Thomas hasn't played competitive football in over a year; he's likely to be a bot more rusty than big WRs who can sort of overpower guys.  I think Collins looks really good and will likely be a steal in the late 1st/early 2nd round where he's likely to go.  Thomas wasn't going to be a sure-fire 1st-rounder at corner, but he feels like a solid rotation corner in the NFL and my guess is once he's gotten some more reps he'll grade out like that.

 

MGoStrength

January 29th, 2021 at 4:44 PM ^

Thomas wasn't going to be a sure-fire 1st-rounder at corner, but he feels like a solid rotation corner in the NFL and my guess is once he's gotten some more reps he'll grade out like that.

My biggest surprise on Ambry is that I remember how much he was praised in HS for his speed.  I want to say it was Magnus who lauded over his speed and how he thought Ambry should be used on offense if I remember correctly and that he was the fastest player in MI his senior year of HS.  So, it surprised me to see him struggle to stay with guys in those clips.  But, I never watched film on him last year.  My general impressions with Ambry were that it seemed weird for a top 100 recruit not to start until his 3rd year and found it odd he couldn't beat our Brandon Watson his sophomore year.  As a point of comparison similarly ranked CBs in Jordan Lewis, David Long, and Lavert Hill all started their sophomore years.  I always wondered why Thomas didn't too.  And, it's worth noting there is a difference between speed and quickness.  Quickness is more about starting and stopping, lateral quickness, etc.  Without looking at any film other than these clips Ambry seems to be a long strider, which is better suited to speed rather than quickness and I wonder if that is what made him struggle in these highlights and also why he didn't play his sophomore year, where he'd likely be matched up against a smaller, quicker, guy in the slot with good foot speed and agility.  This might have made a matchup problem for Ambry if I'm evaluating him accurately, which I'm no coach so :/

AC1997

January 29th, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^

I think the NFL draft and ultimately the career outlook for all of these UM guys is going to be interesting.  I don't fault them for opting out or declaring early - not at all.  I get it.  But even if I detach my fandom and look at it from a business decision I'm not sure which decisions would have been better.

  • Nico - He's a physical marvel....but he has one solid year of film and there are a ton of good WR in the draft.  
  • Thomas - Really skeptical of his pro potential.  He had one pretty good year too though with some medical risk.  He's small and skinny.  Guys like Long and Hill didn't make it really.  Lewis is a solid rotation guy.  
  • Mayfield - One year as the fifth best guy on our line and one year where he barely played.  Good size, good coaching, probably will make it....doubt he goes in the first two days
  • McGrone - Tons of potential that the NFL will love....but one good year and then one where he looked lost.  

I think they all have the talent to make rosters and I'll be rooting for them.  But I'm not sure any get drafted in the first three rounds and I think it will be an uphill battle to become regular starters in the league outside of maybe Nico.

bronxblue

January 29th, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^

Collins leaving makes sense, and guys with his skillset tend to get drafted pretty early because of the potential.  And while there are a lot of good WRs in the draft, the NFL is also so WR-heavy that they set a record with 13 WRs taken in the first 2 rounds last year.  I wouldn't be shocked if Collins was the 10th-best WR in this class and was still gone early in the 2nd round.

Thomas probably was never going to be an NFL starter, but I could see him being a solid backup or situational player in the NFL.  That's totally fine; he wasn't going to get any bigger at UM, and given the health concerns I can see why he'd make the jump.  The comps to Hill and Long are close, though Hill was listed a couple of inches shorter than Thomas and Long has only been in the league for 2 years now, playing on a team with Jalen Ramsey at one corner spot.  He could well still make it.

Mayfield has the body that you want for tackle and has plus athleticism.  That's more than enough to get a guy drafted early.

McGrone I'm least optimistic about because while he's athletic he's not out-of-this-world at that level that you can overlook the inconsistencies he's shown.  NFL teams might take a flyer on him, but that also feels a bit like a DPJ situation where a team would take a flyer on you but isn't necessarily sold you're worth a big risk.  I might be wrong but watching him this year it felt like he ran into bad situations way more than you'd expect; perhaps that's coaching but he might have been insulated more in 2019 with all the experience around him.

Generally, I think this draft class will be fine.  I do think you're underrating Mayfield a bit, but not a ton.

Michigan4Life

January 29th, 2021 at 11:03 AM ^

NFL is a bit higher on McGrone than Michigan fans are. They have him at day 2 pick. They loved his tape from last season and this season, they're excusing him bc they put a lot on his plate because Michigan defense was so bad. He'll get drafted higher than DPJ because DPJ never once was productive while McGrone has been productive

Double-D

January 29th, 2021 at 12:23 PM ^

In fairness he played like a 5th rounder last fall and a 1st rounder the year before.  Last year looked like he didn’t want to be on the field.

The dude is huge and can run like Devin Bush. I don’t think people should be doubting his skills. 

bronxblue

January 29th, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^

He was hurt, which absolutely played a role in it.  That said, my bigger issue is that he seemed to not be able to read plays properly more than I expected.  Lots of that likely comes down to coaching but that was a semi-consistent concern even in 2019.  

I think he'll go in the 3rd round, but if he went in the 2nd because somebody fell in love with him I wouldn't be shocked.  But Devin Bush jumped out as a star pretty early; McGrone still feels a bit more like a project.  

bronxblue

January 29th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^

I think McGrone is a late 3rd/early 4th-round guy, and most analysis I've seen (and I'll admit to not seeing everything) has him as a top-20/30 LB.  Josh Uche went 60th last year as a LB; he's a different type of player but I think his potential in the NFL is clearer to a team than McGrone.  I recognize he was hurt this year and the whole defense was a mess, but last year it felt like he alternated between crazy athleticism and performance and some bad reads and costly mistakes.  This year felt like a step back, with the bad outweighing the good.  Maybe the NFL guys bank on his potential and that gets him taken earlier than I think; I'd be happy for him if he did.  But we really do have limited evidence on him at full strength and without lots of pre-draft opportunities to show he's better I could see, again, NFL teams taking a flyer on him later in the cycle.  But again, who knows.

I was never a huge fan of DPJ at Michigan but I'd say his productivity at UM wasn't demonstrably different than McGrone's, and a lot of their value is based on projections in certain schemes.  Again, maybe NFL guys fall in love with him and he goes earlier than I expect, but I've also come to believe that we tend to hype up recruits around here more than the rest of the world does.  

SpaghettiPolicy

January 29th, 2021 at 10:25 AM ^

Ambry got smoked, and did not look good. Has UDFA written all over him IMO. That being said I'm biased. I'd be lying if I said him sitting out this year didn't change my opinion on him.

bronxblue

January 29th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^

I will say, some of these drills just benefit some players over others.  In a half-dozen of these the WR has a 10-yard cushion and then runs a drag or crossing route for a short completion; I guess that's a situation where the corner could make a play but with no pass rush or other issues for the WR to deal with I'm not sure how valuable it is in judging coverage.  I assume the coaches and scouts see value in it when judging a WR in terms of footwork and catching with your hands vs. the body, but for a corner it seems sub-optimal.  

 

 

outsidethebox

January 29th, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^

If I were scouting this I would think this set up to be very helpful. This is a great "Wonderlic" test-can you assess a live situation and make the adjustment on your own!!! 

I will never forget Bill Cowher's response to being asked what made Troy Polamalu such a great player..."He made plays we could not coach". And this is why few great players can coach well-the game is so intuitive to them they do not understand their own play. Remember Derek Jeter's relay from the first baseline against the Red Sox-OMG, what the hell was he doing over there!!!

uferfan

January 29th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^

Is it just me, or did it seem like the reported height of St. Juste seem to grow throughout his recruiting saga with Michigan all the way up through his time in Minnesota? What is he, 7 foot 2 now?

tspoon

January 29th, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^

I would love to see the Panthers bring Nico down here.  Not sure who the QB will be long term, but he will put a smile on his face, whoever it is.

 

wolverinebutt

January 29th, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^

I think Nico, Ambry, McGrone and Mayfield will all do well in the draft.  I do believe McGrone will do the best because of his size/speed.         

I don't care about St-Juste.