Saturday Predictions: US vs. them
If you are like me and find Brian's Friday offering to be a good read why not see some predictions early in the week! Title says it all, and feel free to expound upon your why . . .
Offense has to be better and execute when they get the opportunities. From our bye-week they have a few more packages for McCarthy and he takes full advantage. JJ throws for a TD and runs for another.
UM - 29 MSU - 22
October 25th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^
24-23 for the good guys.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
Michigan 31 State 17
October 25th, 2021 at 1:39 PM ^
UM 27 MSU 23
October 25th, 2021 at 1:39 PM ^
Pain.
For whom? Oh dear god, please let it be them.
October 25th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
For my liver, most likely.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
the obligatory entries are: Mr. T's pic and 'pain' or the magic 8-ball, 'ask me again later'
i think it's going to be a tough game. there is some glimmer of hope though, in my mind at least, for a repeat of 2019.
October 25th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
See above for pain.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
I had a horrible dream last week that MSU won 39-14.. That's not my prediction though...
M 31 MSU 27
October 25th, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^
Sir, that a nightmare.
October 25th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^
i'm told that everything is backwards in dreams, so chin up, lad.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
I think it comes down to how our red zone offense performs against their red zone defense. Unfortunately the nod goes to MSU in that matchup, and I see a close game like 24-23 MSU. I hope I am wrong...
October 25th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
This is a good point about their red zone defense being good (in a way that I think it's a bit more than just luck since the strength of their defense is the front seven so the secondary is helped by a compressed field).
I'm surprised the perception is that our red zone offense is bad. They showed on Saturday that M's TD rate was 62% which is good for 4th in the conference. And despite the FG and fumble in the first half, M was 4/6 on Saturday until the very late unsportsmanlike penalty forced them to go for a FG with the backups in. Still were 4/7 which is 57%, almost bang on the season average.
I think with JJ we could get that up a little and would like to see more of him in the red zone, but on the other hand, they showed that M had the BEST red zone scoring (TD or FG) rate going into the game and that's a testament to Cade not turning it over and making sure we get a FG when we don't get a TD.
October 25th, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
I'm willing to admit a bit of recency bias about the RZ offense, lately it has looked mediocre at best.
October 25th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
It's possible that our numbers are padded by non-conf foes (perhaps to a greater extent than other Big Ten teams) so it might be instructive to see conference only red zone rates but yeah, I think it's been some recency bias.
Michigan scored 2 TDs on 3 RZ chances against a very good Wisconsin defense (the 13 yard fade to CJ was a thing of beauty). The other being the FG after the punt that touched the guys leg. So 17 points on three trips which is very good. RZ was also solid against Rutgers. The problem in that game was getting there (and managing clock at the end of the half).
And again, NW wasn't that bad. The fumble hurt though. Agree that Nebraska game was frustrating to settle for so many FGs. And as I'm looking back on that play-by-play, we were playing JJ on many of those and Nebraska was really keying on him.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
25-14 good guys, Jake Moody is the MVP
October 25th, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
Are you expecting six field goals from Jake Moody and an extra point after Michigan's lone touchdown?
October 25th, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
you know it
October 25th, 2021 at 7:35 PM ^
Blue know it!
October 25th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
Michigan 26, MSU 24
MSU will be up 14-10 at halftime though on a trick play, and another trick play
October 25th, 2021 at 2:15 PM ^
Without checking, state scores first and won the game of the late. I feels critical to get an early lead on them. Force them into a one dimensional offense.
Michigan 24
state 17
Our defense plays lights out
October 25th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Hard to say. They score first often on us, even when we blast them (2019). Doesn't seem like this team cares much about "momentum."
October 25th, 2021 at 3:46 PM ^
there seems to be a method to Coach MacDonald's method. Especially early in the season, I got the sense that he observes how they come at us and he adjusts accordingly.
Mostly anecdotal and I have no evidence to back it up, it just seems to be what happens.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
40-20 Michigan. I said M would be 10-2 this year over the summer, so everything I say is credible. Bet the mortgage on it!
October 25th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^
10-2 ... so are we losing to Indiana, Penn St, or Maryland?
October 25th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Neither. We'll lose to OSU by so many because of QB play that it will count as 2 losses. And then Harbaugh will finally do the right thing and start JJ against Florida in the Flintstones Vitamins Bowl and he will rush for 13 touchdowns off of QB pulls and throw the ball over the mountains.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^
UM - 27 MSU - 20
MSU scores a late touchdown off of a trick play solely to allow for "Defeated with Dignity" articles to be written.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
Alternatively, for those that think it'll be a close game:
UM - 27 MSU - 26
Trailing by four with less than a minute to play, MSU makes what they think is the game-tying field goal to send it to OT. Turns out the entire coaching staff and team just did the math wrong. Most Sparty loss ever.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
It's one week earlier than it was in 1997 when we felt we had a pretty good team and faced an undefeated PSU on the road and destroyed them. There are definitely parallels between this game and that one. Let us hope the parallels continue:
UM: 34
MSU: 8
October 25th, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
October 25th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^
Yes, there are said parallels. I am hoping that Macdonald has a way to protect the CBs. I am still annoyed that MSU couldn't really stop the Wolverines last year except Michigan could not run a hurry-up offense.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
MICH 21
MSU 17
October 25th, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
The challenge with MSU is that we always need to beat them like it's 2019 or else they claim some form of a victory (DEFEAT WITH DIGNITY) or somesuch.
October 25th, 2021 at 4:13 PM ^
Dignity is a virtue.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
We have a QB who doesn't beat you in the passing game (but usually does JUST enough to get by, and a run game that grinds out yards and breaks defenses (no matter how good) in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Sparty will have plenty of tricks and will bust out a few big pass plays at times. They will not be able to consistently move down the field, however. KWIII will largely be stuffed at or near the line of scrimmage and our pass rush will get to Thorne enough to mostly keep him in check, but he has a few scrambles that are frustrating and hits enough fades or slants to make the fanbase MAD ONLINE.
In the end, Michigan simply outrushes Sparty with near 200 yards on the ground while Sparty keeps it close with 250 yards through the air. Michigan salts the game away in the 4th, as Sparty's tired front seven wilts and Michigan kicks a 4th quarter field goal to win 23-21 in a B1G slug fest.
October 25th, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
We are pre-Kiffin Bama without the 5 star loaded roster. Let's hope Gatis + JJ = what came next for them.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^
Watch out for KWIII on screen passes though. That I worry about.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
I feel the team will be super locked in this week, plays a great game, turns into a rout for the good guys, UM 31 - MSU 13!!
October 25th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
38-14 Harbaugh
October 25th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
What's the over/under on number of times the camera zooms in on Mike Hart on the sideline and plays the "little brother" comment from his playing day?
October 25th, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
They will play the comments once. They will zoom in on Hart at least 3 times in the first half, and once more in the second half, and will continue to reference it twice more in the second half.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
If I were a betting man, I would stay as far away from this game as possible....it's so up in the air on what is going to happen on the field. All of these headlines are plausible:
"Michigan RB room grounds MSU into a pulp for a convincing win"
"MSU sells out to stop the Michigan ground game for an easy win"
"MSU offense reaches into its bag of tricks and comes up empty against an improved Michigan defense"
"MSU offense keeps rolling, Michigan unable to play catchup"
That's just based off of my viewings this year. It doesn't even account for the weirdness of rivalry games and what headlines could manifest themselves throughout the course of this game. From an outside perspective, I am not sure who is going to win, or if the score will be close.
October 25th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
If I were a betting man, I'd almost certainly take the under.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:48 PM ^
I think our O will put points on the board as their D isn't better than Washington's or Wisconsin's. Boils down to our D. If we can stop a balanced MSU offense, we win comfortably.
35-21, Blue.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
Washington and Wisconsin weren't rivalry games. This one is.
That changes the dynamic of almost everything.
October 26th, 2021 at 8:17 AM ^
I question the extent of the "Rivalry" this year only because of the great number of transfers. How do they pickup a distain for us so quickly?
"Hey, we have to play for state pride!"
[while the transfers think, "I've only been here for 3 months"]
Just wondering
October 25th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
Michigan wins easily - 34 to 10
Kenneth Walker wouldn't start for Michigan.
October 27th, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
This is the most likely outcome.
October 25th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
Michigan turtles against rivals under Harbaugh. It happens again Saturday.
MSU 24 UM 20
Hope I'm wrong.
October 25th, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
Ohio State obviously, but he's .500 against each of Notre Dame, MSU, and Penn State. Certainly nothing to celebrate, but overall not exactly turtling.
As for MSU, his three losses to them are by a total of 11 points and came on a pandemic, a monsoon, and one of the dumbest fluke plays in football history. His three wins are by 57 total points and while 34 of those were in one game, the other two were nowhere near as close as Sparty likes to pretend (94 yards of offense in '18, and a cosmetic 4th-quarter surge with the game largely in hand in '16), certainly all more solid wins than any of MSU's against him.