Sam Webb: U-M Has 75% Chance of Getting Rashan Gary

Ugh. Don't remind me of that recruitment...

A lot of the time bigger recruits don't announce until January like Derrick Green.

I'm not poo-pooing anyone.  I don't fault a recruit for going elsewhere.  I'm just not confident about him coming to Michigan.  Some kids know where they want to go and hold off for various reasons - exposure for teammates, a podium at an all-star game, or just because they wanted to hold off.  These people are strong leans if they know where they WANT to go.  I don't see him as a lean as it feels like he is still looking, not just postponing the inevitable.

And honestly, their recruitment is just as similar to Gary's as the aforementioned Derek Green. It works both ways, and has ended in the wrong direction more often than not. Here's hoping Harbaugh changes all of that, and I see no reason he can't.

much of what you say is true.   i agree that typically the longer out of state recruitments last, the chances increase a majority of those kids ultimately choose the southern / western powers (for whatever reasons) as they typically have.  

but its also a different team, program, culture, head coach and staff, etc with some refreshing results on the field (at least defensively, special teams).  

plus m seems to be in the running for more higher ranked out of state recruits than in recent memory - and if theyre securing visits from so many prospects, the chances of landing 1-2 at the end of the cycle seem more likely than if they were only heavily recruiting 2-3 of those types down to the wire (as seems to be case in recent memory)

I don't think the loss to Michigan State will have much of an effect on recruiting. There were a lot of recruits in attendance, and they saw that Michigan just had to punt the ball away to win. They saw that Michigan had that game won. I also think that football players understand the game of football more than a lot of fans and pundits, so they know that kids screw up. Heck, a lot of those players have probably had the ball in their hands at a critical juncture and threw an interception, fumbled the ball, dropped a pass, etc. at some point in their high school or middle school years.

I think the noticeable effect it might have (in a negative way for Michigan) is for kids who are strongly considering Michigan and Michigan State. If you have a kid like, say, Donnie Corley or Ambry Thomas or K.J. Hamler, that idea that "Michigan State owns Michigan" might persist. Certainly, they're hearing it from MSU supporters in their ears, as well as the coaching staff at MSU. But for a kid like Isaac Nauta or Caleb Kelly or David Long, I don't think the botched punt makes much of a difference.

The biggest influence current events have is on the perception of coaching stability.  More than anything, recruits hate even the whiff of coaching instability.  

That's why we started losing so many recruits last year . . . it became clear that these were not just ordinary losses that all teams have, but these were losses that were going to cost Hoke and his staff their jobs.

Nobody thinks the loss to MSU this year is going to cost Harbaugh his job.  Despite the loss, Harbaugh is on an ascending trajectory.  And even if we lose to OSU it will still be true.

The freaky loss to MSU this year has zero impact on recruiting.

That's also not very meaningful. I'm not building a college football program. 

Obviously, Saban, Harbaugh, and others are good at identifying and developing talent. That's not in question. But they also don't provide their analyses to us as fans.

If coaches are the best equipped people to comment on football, then why don't we watch NFL games with no broadcasters, color analysts, etc.? Why do we watch things like Sunday NFL Countdown and College Gameday? Why do we pay attention to Ron Jaworski or Chris Mortensen or whoever? Why don't we just watch the games and say, "Yes, that was the best play to call in that situation, because Jim Harbaugh called it"?

As far as I know, Chris Spielman has never coached a team to a national championship or a Super Bowl. Yet he still comments on play calling, technique, etc. He's providing his perspective on how the game should be played.

Rivals, 247 Sports, etc. are doing the same service for us fans. It doesn't mean they're always right, but it doesn't mean they're wrong, either. Maybe they're wrong more than Harbaugh and Saban, even, but fans aren't satisfied with "Well, Player X has 46 offers, so he's better than Player Y with 42 offers." They want analysis and rankings, and Rivals provides it. It's not the whole picture, but it's *a* picture.

I will also say that an offer to Rashan Gary does not equal an offer to Quinn Nordin. Both have big-time offers, but Gary is looked at as a cornerstone type of player, while Nordin is a guy whom Michigan at one time was not interested in continuing to recruit. Look at a guy like Dennis Norfleet, too. He ended up with a Michigan offer, which is a huge thing, but he was offered on the eve of National Signing Day because Michigan needed someone to fill the role of a kick returner/punt returner and had an extra scholarship at that point. Sometimes players are recruited to play specific roles, and they're not all recruited to be superstars. I don't think Harbaugh believes that every player in this class has a chance to be a superstar, but he probably thinks that guys can be a nickel corner, a third down back, a run-stopping defensive end, etc.

Star ratings are based on potential super-stardom, NFL potential, etc. Coaches are not offering everybody with the idea that they'll play in the league, or even star on their roster. Consequently, the ratings and coach evals are not necessarily at odds with each other. This is Magnus' point.