Ryan Day, year 3, almost out of Urban's shadow. Any chance he'll start to level off a bit lower?

Submitted by Buy Bushwood on January 12th, 2021 at 1:17 PM

I mean, you don't take over for the 2nd best coach of the last 20 years and maintain in perpetuity, unless you're on that level yourself. That's just the law of averages. Not really an example I can think of in which an absolute legend was replaced by promotion and the successor went on to the same (maybe Tom Osborne for all of us older folks).  Larry Coker went 25-0 with Butch Davis' talent (who, admittedly isn't a legend), and then slowly circled the drain. But he looked like a god for the first two years. To my eye, Lincoln Riley is on that course, though it's hard to be too bad in the Big 12. But there's a lot to maintain in a program that wins the Big 10 and competes for a NC every year; from recruiting, depth chart, development, assistant coaches, scheme, personal mental health, staying out of trouble.  With the exception of the QB, this roster was built and developed under Urban's direct supervision.  

Thanks for reading. Now proceed to tell me how lame this post is, how it's been posted before, how it's not a fresh take, how I shouldn't worry about that when we can't beat Mel Tucker, etc, and put up some cool metaphoric GIFs.

Lionsfan

January 12th, 2021 at 2:14 PM ^

Recruiting rankings matter, until they don't.

Miami and Larry Coker had some pretty good ranked recruiting classes, but he wasn't an outstanding coach, and they fell off. Per 247 recruiting team ranks:

2001 - 8th , 2002 - 5th , 2003 - 4th , 2004 - 3rd , 2005 - 9th , 2006 - 12th

Ryan Day has pulled in:

2019 - 14th , 2020 - 5th , 2021 - on track for 2nd

Now recruiting ratings have gotten more accurate over the years, but I think right now, it's a fair question to ask about Day. He was given a Ferrari, and then an incredible driver (Fields) for that Ferrari. What's going to happen when he has to train a Freshman QB with 0 meaningful snaps?

Edit: I got mixed up a little. Next year Jack Miller and CJ Stroud will both have been in the program for 1 year at OSU, but neither one attempted a pass this year.

Joined: 06/03/2011

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Chipper1221

January 12th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^

I don't know much about the Coker situation (aging myself here) but the thing that will keep Day and OSU afloat is the fact that Urban is still on payroll by that university and we know he's acting as GM. Urban brought Coombs back. Urban will find another CO-DC when snake Mattison is ready to retire. 

 

And I don't know how many people know this but Stoops is still working at Oklahoma in an "administrative" capacity. Ala another GM type to help Riley without having to deal with the headache of actually being the coach. 

Joined: 08/13/2014

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A Lot of Milk

January 12th, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^

Next year could be a little strange. Indiana took them to the wire, returns almost everyone, and plays them in Bloomington 

If there's a year for them to pull off the miracle, it's next year

Joined: 02/17/2013

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chunkums

January 12th, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^

I imagine Indiana will still be good, but I think a lot of Indiana and Northwestern's success this year was due to the fact that both teams returned an extremely high percentage of their production from the previous year, and the pandemic messed with everyone's practice schedules. A bunch of teams that had to replace a ton of production (UM, MSU, LSU) were absolutely dreadful and several teams that returned a ton of production (IU, NW) were unexpectedly great. I could be wrong, but I bet at least some of that was the weird COVID season.

Joined: 06/30/2008

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chunkums

January 12th, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^

Minnesota was 86th in the country in returning production. Their defense, which lost most of its production from last year, was dreadful. Their offense was top 25 in offensive FEI, which is pretty good considering their talent level. Regarding Purdue, there was no giant step back. They were 4-8 last season and 2-4 this year without the benefit of playing any non-conference cream puffs. Penn State was right about average in terms of returning production before the season (#47), but didn't they have a bunch of opt-outs and injuries just like us?

Joined: 06/30/2008

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evenyoubrutus

January 12th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^

It will be interesting to see how the football factory programs like OSU do in the aftermath of the COVID season. There will be lots of teams full of veterans, given the extra year of eligibility, while the elites will be losing guys to the NFL. Not saying it will be a huge factor, but next year may have some interesting upsets.

Joined: 11/04/2008

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My Name is LEGIONS

January 12th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^

Obvious you're hoping they fire him.   He is crushing it, despite the loss... but now, Fields leaves, and the QB position is so important.  We just might catch them with solid Cade play.  Seriously.

 

Joined: 10/29/2014

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A Lot of Milk

January 12th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^

You can have nice things, but the endless cycle of hype and disappointment is exhaustion. Trevor Lawrence is a surefire #1 overall pick, played pretty well against OSU, and still got blown tf out

Cade (along with the rest of the team) would have to play the game of their lives against OSU to have even a chance of winning, they can't just be "solid" 

Joined: 02/17/2013

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snarling wolverine

January 12th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^

I don't know if I want them to fire him or not.  It's possible that he turns into a good-but-not-elite coach, and if he were fired they might break the bank for another elite coach.

We don't have enough evidence to evaluate him as a coach right now.  He was given an absolutely stacked roster when he took over.  I did think his game management last night wasn't the best.  

Joined: 12/14/2011

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ERdocLSA2004

January 12th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^

Seriously?  I was drinking as well, but I’m not sure what game you watched.  We are light years from OSU.  We had more off sides penalties in one half of a game than they had total penalties all game last night.  They have competent play calling, largely mistake free players, put the ball in the hands of their skill players, etc etc. until our coaching matches theirs, there is no reason to think that any player is going to make us competitive.

Joined: 01/08/2011

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bogart

January 12th, 2021 at 9:23 PM ^

"Guarantee??!!"  How did you come to know this about Meyer?  Did he tell you this himself?  Are the players aware that Day is not the real coach?  Is Day aware that he is a puppet?  Would it be more cruel to tell him, or not tell him?

Joined: 12/01/2019

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northmuskeGOnBLUE

January 12th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^

Florida State was a machine for pretty much all of the '90s. Other than a blip here and there, it was their decade. Then their legendary head coach got old and basically shown the door. It eventually happens to all programs. OSU is no different and neither is Alabama. I think the CFP-era affects the timeline of the cycle, but it will cycle. 

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A Lot of Milk

January 12th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^

OSU had the #2 ranked qb as a true freshman this year, will be the presumed starter. They have the #3 ranked qb coming in, while we have the #2 in Mccarthy

If I have to pick a horse, I'll take the guy who has a whole year in a college system, on a national contender, with an entire offense of five star players

Joined: 02/17/2013

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azee2890

January 12th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^

Who was the #2 ranked QB as a true freshman? CJ Stroud? He was actually #3 behind Bryce Young and DJ Uiagalelei. Better to compare composite ratings. 

CJ Stroud - .9780

Jack Miller - .8951

Kyle McCord - .9869

 

Here are our QBs:

JJ McCarthy - .9877

Cade McNamara - .9052

 

JJ is the highest rated of the bunch, marginally beating out McCord, both of which are about a percentage point higher than Stroud. 

 

Also

Justin Fields rating - .9998

Shea Patterson - .9982

 

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azee2890

January 12th, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^

Yeah I mean if you look at the all time rankings you have:

1. Vince Young - 1.0000

2. Trevor Lawrence - .9999

3. Justin Fields - .99998

4. Brock Berlin - .9998

5. Terrelle Pryor - .9997

Interesting how OSU has had two in the top 5 of all time (three if you are going to count Ewers, who is tied for #1 with 1.0000 rating) and not a single noteworthy pro QB during the rating era. 

Players with near McCarthy's (.9909) rating:

Jameis Winston (.9915), Tyrod Taylor (.9914), Marcus Vick (.9910), Aaron Murray (.9900), Blake Barnett (.9898)

 

Joined: 07/13/2020

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