Ryan Day Open to moving The Game

Submitted by Hail2UM83 on July 27th, 2023 at 10:30 AM

With divisions going away next year once USC and UCLA join the B1G, Eddie Munster mentioned he would be open to moving The Game. In my opinion this game should never be moved. I am curious as to what everyone elee thinks given the ever-changing landscape of college football.

IndyBlue

July 27th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^

I think moving The Game is probably going to happen.  If not, it could lead to UM/OSU playing 2 or 3 times in a row (The Game, B1G Championship, Playoffs).  Also, if both teams have locked up a bid for the B1G Championship game prior to The Game, it wouldn't really mean anything since they'd be playing each other a few weeks later for the B1G title.

lilpenny1316

July 27th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^

I wouldn't worry about The Game losing any influence. Getting into the CFP will be hard if you lose the last two games of your season. There would be a lot of emphasis by both teams to win that game to clinch a CFP spot. The B1G Championship would have less significance for the winner of The Game, but there would still be an autobid and avoiding a potential road CFP game on the line.

Buy Bushwood

July 27th, 2023 at 5:31 PM ^

This.  There's no point in planning for any permanence or asking questions as if they have century's long consequences.  In 20 years, even those growing up with today's B1G won't recognize it.  NW will be in the MAC.  Wisconsin/MN will be playing in the new Canadian College Football.  

BTB grad

July 27th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^

That’s why the real solution is to get rid of conference title games. What’s the point in a division-less B1G and 12 team CFP? The B1G existed for most of its history with the possibility of multiple shared B1G champs so that’s not an issue (and it can still can happen for most other sports’ regular season B1G champs). But it’ll be a long shot to get networks to give up an extra game and the money that comes with it. 

UMxWolverines

July 27th, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^

I would be all for moving The Game a week later that way so many of the college students arent on Thanksgiving break. 

We all know theyll never turn down the chance at another week of football so why dont they make 10 conference and 3 non conference standard and get rid of the championship games?

jmblue

July 27th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^

The big question to me is, how can you ask college football players to basically play an NFL schedule?  To win the national title with a 12-team playoff, you’ll have to play 16 or 17 games. That’s too much.  The conference title games are an easy place to trim the fat.

jmblue

July 27th, 2023 at 3:33 PM ^

I think fans overestimate the likelihood of rematches with OSU in the BTCG.  With 16 teams playing nine conference games, the schedules are going to be very imbalanced and there will probably often be teams going 9-0 or 8-1 without playing either Michigan or OSU.  Those are the teams the winner of the Game will face.

markh100

July 27th, 2023 at 8:05 PM ^

Was curious how likely it was for a team to avoid playing both Michigan and Ohio State.  This doesn't take protected rivalries into account, so not 100% accurate.  It's been 25 years since I took finite, so I couldn't quite math it.  ChatGPT to the rescue.  

An average season will have 4 teams avoid playing either Michigan / Ohio State, which was more than I expected.  Each of those will likely end up playing USC, Penn State or both.  I guess you're probably right - given that info, it feels someone will MSU or Iowa there way to an 8-1 schedule playing no one at least once every 2-3 years.

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Probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in all 9 games = (6 / 7)^9 ≈ 0.2989

Now, the average number of teams that will avoid playing either Team A or Team B can be calculated as follows:

Average number of teams = Total number of remaining teams * Probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in all 9 games

Average number of teams = 14 * 0.2989 ≈ 4.183

Therefore, on average, approximately 4.183 teams (excluding Team A or Team B) will avoid playing either Team A or Team B in a random schedule of 9 games. Since we cannot have a fraction of a team, the actual number of teams that will avoid playing either Team A or Team B will be 4 or 5, depending on the randomness of the schedule.



markh100

July 27th, 2023 at 8:07 PM ^

Full transcript from ChatGPT:

Question: Let there be a set of 16 distinct opponents. Included in the group of 16 teams are two special opopnents, Team A and Team B. Given a random schedule of 9 games, where no team can play each other twice, on average, how many of teams of the teams, excluding Team A or B, will avoid playing either team A or Team B?

 

Answer:
 

To calculate the average number of teams, excluding Team A or Team B, that will avoid playing either Team A or Team B in a random schedule of 9 games, we'll consider the probabilities of different scenarios.

Let's assume that the schedule is generated randomly, and each of the 16 teams (including Team A and Team B) has an equal chance of being selected for each game.

There are a total of 16 teams, and we have already accounted for 2 teams (Team A and Team B). So, the number of remaining teams is 16 - 2 = 14.

Now, we need to calculate the probability that a randomly chosen team from the remaining 14 teams avoids playing either Team A or Team B in a single game.

The probability that a randomly chosen team avoids playing Team A or Team B in one game is the number of ways it can be scheduled to play against the remaining 14 - 2 = 12 teams (excluding Team A and Team B) divided by the total number of remaining opponents.

Probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in one game = Number of ways to schedule against the remaining 12 teams / Total number of remaining opponents

The number of ways to schedule against the remaining 12 teams is simply 12 because each team can only play one game against the chosen opponent.

So, the probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in one game is:

Probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in one game = 12 / 14 = 6 / 7 ≈ 0.8571

Now, since each game is independently scheduled, the probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in all 9 games is the product of the individual probabilities for each game:

Probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in all 9 games = (6 / 7)^9 ≈ 0.2989

Now, the average number of teams that will avoid playing either Team A or Team B can be calculated as follows:

Average number of teams = Total number of remaining teams * Probability of avoiding Team A or Team B in all 9 games

Average number of teams = 14 * 0.2989 ≈ 4.183

Therefore, on average, approximately 4.183 teams (excluding Team A or Team B) will avoid playing either Team A or Team B in a random schedule of 9 games. Since we cannot have a fraction of a team, the actual number of teams that will avoid playing either Team A or Team B will be 4 or 5, depending on the randomness of the schedule.

markh100

July 27th, 2023 at 8:23 PM ^

2nd attempt generated a negative number - 

Number of teams that avoid playing either Team A or Team B = Total number of teams - Number of teams playing either Team A or Team B Number of teams that avoid playing either Team A or Team B = 14 - (5005 + 2002) = 14 - 7007 = -6993

It seems there's an issue in the calculation, as the result is a negative value. This suggests that it's not possible for all the remaining 14 teams to avoid playing either Team A or Team B while still maintaining the constraint of 9 games for each team and no team playing each other twice.

3rd attempt generated 2809.

Average number of teams avoiding Team A or Team B = 0.001121 * (5005 * 5005) ≈ 2809.93

ChatGPT is drunk.

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From what I can gather, at a simple level, the average team has C(15,9), or 5005, distinct schedules available.  There are C(13,9), or 705, schedules available where they avoid both Michigan and OSU.  That leaves a ~14.2% chance of avoiding both.  There are 14 teams besides Michigan and OSU, each with a 14.2% chance of avoiding both.  That averages out to 1.96 teams.  So, 2 teams, on average, each year will avoid both.  That seems more reasonable.  Much less likely they will end up going 8-1/9-0.    Sorry for the long chain of nonsense posts from ChatGPT.

 

 

Gulogulo37

July 28th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^

No. You absolutely cannot trust chatgpt to do the math for you, nor to even give you factual information. It's a language model that's essentially trained to make people think it knows what it's talking about. It's not a calculator. It's "What sounds like the best word to put next given the prompt?" That MIGHT get you the right answer but might not. People citing chatgpt has already been a big problem.

wolve1972

July 27th, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^

Yeah, I kind of see The Game moving also. Just a matter of time and there's no way the rest of the conference wants to see UM-OSU play 2 or 3 weeks in a row. There's enough jealousy throughout the conference now over the UM-OSU rivalry. Think I'm kidding - go visit the PSU and MSU boards

lilpenny1316

July 27th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^

Day realized he got lucky in 2022 and needs more time for OSU to move up in the polls after losing to us every year.

It should never move. In my opinion, there are three games that cannot move. The Game, The Iron Bowl and OU/Texas. Everything else has been sacrificed for the almighty dollar. I would like to see FSU-Miami move back to November, but there's no way FSU wants to play Miami and Florida back-to-back anymore.

MGolem

July 27th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^

Its clear that nothing is off limits. I guess I am fine with that mostly because I am powerless to stop it. Shit sucks. In general. 

We'll be Champions

July 27th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^

No. Not okay with this at all. I sincerely hope the Big Ten scraps their title idea and looks to go either back to division or the showcase thing or honestly even just has an extra game to the conference schedule because I hate the idea that this rivalry could be played twice

MgoBlueprint

July 27th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^

It would be a travesty of sorts. But as someone else said, nothing is off limits. The best we can hope for is another leaders and legends failure realignment and even that is a “wish in one hand” situation

brad

July 27th, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^

In my opinion, this game should never be moved.  I get that the sport is changing, but a lot of what's changing is just bath water.  The Game is the baby.

nowicki2005

July 27th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^

He wants to move it earlier in the season so weather has less of an outcome on the game, not a surprise... Moving the game does take away any added weather advantage Michigan gets having it later. Just the same reason Michigan would never want it moved.

4th phase

July 27th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^

I think we have to move the game off of Thanksgiving weekend. It can be the last game played. But student attendance has always been lackluster that game because so many out of staters go home for the weekend. Since they implemented extra hoops to jump through for selling tickets to non students, it makes sense to move it. All I care about is having the best home game atmosphere, so if that means moving it, then go ahead.