Review of 2021 Penn State Game
Key points from last year's game:
Offensive stats pretty similar- Cade much more efficient than Clifford but total yards were Michigan 361, Penn State 332
1st Quarter PSU runs a successful fake punt (20 yd gain) from Michigan's 40- this is after Michigan called timeout and the announcers note before the play that Michigan may have seen something that indicated a fake- they convert and make a field goal
Penn State's kicker had a career long field goal
Successful pass plays were typically 15 yard passes where PSU receiver was cutting inside and the defender didn't stay with the receiver- Parker and Dotson were 2/3s of passing yards- Parker 92 (23 yd average), Dotson 63
U of M defense had a lot of QB hurries, hits, sacks- but gave up a lot of critical scrambles to Clifford (his stats show 16 yards rushing so sacks offset a lot of his scrambles)- can we get pressure without giving up a lane?
PSU tried a fake field goal that led to a fumble so this gamble cost them 3 points-
Michigan scored 3 TDs, Penn State had 1 TD with 2 PT conversion + 3 field goals
Game was tied with 6:45 left in 4th when a strip sack gives Penn State the ball at Michigan's 17. Defense holds Penn State to a Field Goal. Fumble totally our left guard's fault- I'm curious if he yelled to Cade and it couldn't be heard because the stadium was loud.
Michigan has 6 minutes to score and after good Haskins runs All scores from the Penn State 47 to make it 21-17.
The game looked more dominant from Michigan IMHO but the stats show that the team's were pretty close in performance.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
Good review. I think that we win going away this year. They have been held up by smoke and mirrors, and the illusion of their eliteness will evaporate in subsequent weeks. But for now, what they look like, and what we will do to them, will be a nice feather in our cap for CFP consideration.
Nothing compared to blowing up the death star again. But a nice feather nonetheless.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
I'm not convinced. Our LB level is very messy at the moment. PSU has been good at exploiting weak LB play. We will get our licks on Clifford, but he is good at evading pressure and getting up after hits. It'll be a tough, hard-fought contest.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:28 AM ^
Exactly, how I feel!
October 10th, 2022 at 11:32 AM ^
Obviously we are going to need to get pressure to a certain degree, but in a game like this I really just want them to keep everything in front of them. Penn State isn't remotely explosive and their offense really does depend on Clifford making something out of nothing and our linebacker play has been terrifying.
October 10th, 2022 at 4:17 PM ^
If we define explosive as 20+ yards... Penn State has 28 plays in 5 games (5.6 explosive plays per game.) Michigan has 32 plays in 6 games (5.3 explosive plays per game.)
If we set a higher bar of 30+ yards, Penn State averages 2.4 explosive plays per game. Michigan averages 2.16.
If we lower our standards to 10+ yards, Penn State averages 16.4 explosive plays per game. Michigan averages 15.8.
Either both Michigan and Penn State "aren't remotely explosive" or you're not giving Penn State's offense quite enough credit.
October 10th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
We’ll see. There is plenty that Penn State can do to exploit our defensive deficiencies, and our LB play is really not up to snuff.
They’ve also got some really darn good running backs right now that will probably make at least a play or two.
This is far and away the best and most talented team we’ll have played thus far. But the same can be said for Penn State going against Michigan. This will likely be a close game.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
Seems like PSU always had a scary weapon in the Harbaugh era: Barkley, Dotson, KJ Hamler, Miles Sanders, Freiermuth. Or even on Defense they had guys like Parsons or that loaded D Line one year. Do they have any talent on that level this year?
October 10th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
He’s still figuring out the college game, but Singleton, their freshman running back is damn good.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
Yeah that guy is going to be a problem very soon.
October 10th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
I hope he really bursts out of his shell in their White Out against Minny (next week) and the week after when they host the Bucks.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
DB Joey Porter Jr (NTJP, but son of YTJP) --- he's very good and likely a 1st-2nd round NFL draft pick if he leaves after this year.
He's really the only guy currently at that level. WR Parker Washington was hoped for but he not hitting that next gear --- he's still sitting at 0 touchdowns for 2022.
As someone else said, Singleton has a ton of potential. But he's more of a 2023-2024 guy for getting to the next level.
Net net: it's fair to say 2022 PSU doesn't have as many elite individual talents as previous PSU iterations.
October 10th, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
Ji'Ayir Brown?
October 10th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
Feat Erick All saving the day w/ sad PSU fans and sideline behind him.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
"WILL THEY CATCH HIM........NO!"
October 10th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Speaking of Erik All.....
October 10th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
Quick: Which person on the sidelines is a threat?
October 10th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
I don't think the person is on the sideline - but, #12 in the first row of the stands looks awfully fierce. Is he the 12th man? Oh, that's a Texas A&M thing - and, it's great to see how Jimbo is doing down there.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
Also... Harbaugh set his pants on fire.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
perhaps this is what zach charbonnet was referring to with his cryptic comments about 'lies'.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
Harbaugh told Zach he doesn't wear thermal underwear. The lie was exposed.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
and the cry went up, 'liar, liar, pants on fire!'
October 10th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
Defective pants mislabeled "Suitable for an enthusiasm unknown to mankind"
October 10th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Was in the top row of Beaver Stadium and boy, was that place LOUD. Lived up to the hype. On 2nd and 10 before All caught the pass, it was deafening. And then during that run, it felt like the entire stadium went silent as me and my friend were screaming "GO GO GO!" I'll always remember that. From us being the nervous quiet ones in a sea of rabid PSU fans to a complete 180 within seconds.
I'll also add I'd heard a lot of horror stories about people getting beer thrown on them or messed with for wearing opponent gear, but for the most part the fans were fine. Some heckling here and there by students but nothing serious, and the PSU fans in my section talked some shit but it was nothing over the top and was more "that was a BS call, your guy was holding" or whatever. Would recommend checking out a game there if you get a chance.
The game itself was extremely frustrating and nerve-wracking. I didn't realize the yardage was so close, it definitely felt like Michigan was the more talented team but stretches of bad playcalling (that one 3rd and short with unbalanced formation sticks out) really hurt us, as did Clifford's legs. Think we also gave up some chunk plays because of being worried about Dotson.
PSU no longer has Dotson, and the secondary is a little more equipped this year to handle WR's (I do worry about the LB's) so hopefully it's smoother sailing. Playcalling has to capitalize on opportunities though. Looks like they have another high end pass rusher this year, so if we don't put some distance early, one play can change the game.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
Yes- I meant to add that our 3rd down conversion % was bad- 6/15
October 10th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
Our defense was fine last year; Clifford had 205 yds but it took him 43 attempts to get there for a bad 4.8 YPA. The D gave up just 14 points (the 3 was spotted to them by our offense’s turnover). And their defensive stand to ensure they only got a FG and not a TD after McNmarra’s fumble with PSU having all the momentum was the key in the game. And forcing the turnover on downs after the All TD. The offense was the issue in that game, god awful playcalling and execution at times.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
Watched at home, but this is my memory - they kinda college crapped their way to 2 FG drives (one faked and fumbled), and I felt both lucky that we weren't down 14-0 but also from that point until the 4th quarter, was frustrated it was only 14-6. When they tied it up, it felt like we'd missed opportunities to let them back. When we fumbled, I def felt we'd outplayed them to a loss.
And then, ALL was forgotten and forgiven. The last 3 drives felt right.
October 10th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
Gustavo, you bring up a great point about "crowd noise". Last season, the Bucks game was fantastic. It was as good of an environment as I've ever been part of in Michigan Stadium.
This weekend, technically after classes end on Friday - Michigan students have their "mini" fall break, which goes through Tuesday. I hope that the students show up in force - and, the entire fan base is LOUD through the entire game. Seeing a few false starts or delay of games infractions because of the crowd noise would be a good thing - and, the students can play a very big part in that.
Go Blue!
October 10th, 2022 at 1:53 PM ^
The Manningham game happened over Fall Break. 3:30 start. a good buddy of mine missed the game, but got a buck. So he had no regrets.
I went to the game. Also no regrets.
October 10th, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
This year's game is on October 15. The 2005 Manningham game was on October 15. The 1994 PSU @ Michigan game was also on October 15.
The 2016 PSU @ Michigan game was supposed to be on October 15, but in November 2015 the 2 schools plus the conference all agreed to move the game up 3 weeks.
Net: every single year that (1) PSU was in the B1G, (2) October 15 fell on a Saturday, and (3) Michigan played PSU (thus throw out 2011), PSU visited Ann Arbor or was scheduled to do so on October 15.
Thus concludes this edition of "random oddities about the calendar and B1G schedules."
October 10th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
I just remember clenching my ass cheeks the whole game until All scored that final touchdown. Hopefully we can come out fast, get an early lead, and maintain it throughout the game.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
Weird to see the total yards comparison. I know the fumble allowed PSU to get their only lead of the second half and then Erik All did his cool thing…but before that, it had felt like a game Michigan was in control of despite the score.
Penn State’s fake field goal, though, that was the biggest clown show of a fake FG I’ve ever seen.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
One key point you’re missing: Ojabo/Hutch combined for 3 sack strips and we didn’t recover a single one. Very unlucky. That’s the biggest reason our win expectancy in this game was far higher than it translated to on the field.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
As someone noted in the other thread, when you have michigans attention you get all you can handle. I don't think they are "coasting" in the other games but it's hard to be "up" 100% of the time, every time. In fact, it's impossible. When Michigan is "up" though they are through the roof. I expect a team that shows precision with the execution. One that is geeked up but plays relaxed and business-like. Just like at Iowa for most of the game.
This game is going to be tough but has the ability to be a banner win for this team. Maybe I'll be way off but it "feels" like it has the makings for a UM explosion.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
The 2017-2019 PSU v Michigan games were predominately about emotion --- the previous year's loser was now at home and all fired up about something from the previous year (mostly they were fired up about what they perceived as running up of the score). The eventual winner of those games fed off of that --- A LOT.
This year, it just feels like it's going to be a business-like B1G football game. A lot like 2021. I'm struggling to see an "explosion" for either team - I do see both teams coming out sharp and playing well, and U-M winning by 7 to 10-ish points because they're at home and overall better.
October 10th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Agree and “explosion” may be the wrong word I didn’t mean they blow psu out. I’m more meaning it in the way I think it has the potential for it to be “close-ish” but Michigan looking like a polished and true contender that keeps psu out of reach the whole game. Basically the game it all comes together and you see the juggernaut. But again, not to say it’s not very close.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
I have not watched any PSU this year outside of a few highlights shown at halftime of other games. One thing I do recall from the Podcast earlier in the year is Bryan Mac bringing up that PSU has an interesting dime package that is almost 7 or 8 defensive backs ("almost" meaning an actual S is playing LB, other role shifting, etc). PSU is probably one of the few teams that can get some amount of pressure against M rushing only 3 or a 4th random blitzer with a 3 man front. Any pressure coming with a 7-8 man zone drop could be difficult for a younger QB like McCarthy.. Success/lack of success against this package could go a long way to determining the game. Could also be a good time to pop out some draw plays on third and long/medium on such a light defense.
All of this is, of course, assuming Frames Janklin doesn't show up from the getgo and sad field goal his way to a 4 score loss.
Of note from last year's game, PSU got the ball first and went on 14, 14 and 9 play drives to start the game, sandwiched by 2 UM 3 and outs. So when we got the ball for the third time early in the 2nd, the play disparity was 37-6 and yardage 141-5. For the rest of the way UM outgained PSU 356-191.
October 10th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
That was my birthday (and first one without my mom). That game probably shaved a year off my life, but the ending was worth the 3 hours of my heart rate monitor thinking I was going for a run.
I will be forever grateful for Erick All
October 10th, 2022 at 12:16 PM ^
EDIT: I had wiped this ugly image from my mind.
October 10th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
original message edited making this one irrelevant, carry on
October 10th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
I'm an idiot and didn't have any coffee this morning.
October 10th, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
I assume you know that original pic is the Ohio Bobcat getting to Brutus not the Nittany Lion...
October 10th, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
Rufus and the PSU mascot are spirit brothers - cats who don't like Buckeyes.
October 10th, 2022 at 4:54 PM ^
Cats are confusing, man. There's a lot of them to keep track of.
October 10th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
Clifford's scrambles came because he managed to escape through the middle - where Hutch and Ojabo weren't - most of the time. Our DT situation last year wasn't, ahem, as good as it is this year. This years flavor of DL seems more well-rounded, with constant contain and pressure from the outside while the DTs inside are also rushing and holding their own.
However, if he is able to escape the DL, he'll be at the LB level. Let us not let him get there...
October 10th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
It wasn't usually the middle, it was usually our left end getting too deep
October 10th, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
Just testing embedding a video - this popped up in my feed and surprisingly features a former Wolverine!
October 10th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
I thought about making a post about this, but thought this would be a better place to ask:
I'm having a tough time wrapping my brain around how Clemson, who jumped Michigan in the polls, is a 4.5 point favorite (on the road) over an unranked FSU team....
But Michigan is a 7 point favorite against the #10 ranked team in the country?
I'm sure the home vs away is a consideration, but this one has me scratching my head a bit. Clemson bias... Anti-Michigan bias... Primetime game bias...
October 10th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
People get too worked up over the polls--this early, who cares. Put Clemson ahead of us, that's fine (and honestly I expected it). It's not like we've been setting the world on fire the past few weeks, and Wake Forest and NC St. are decent teams, on par if not better than MD and Iowa. Tennessee and UCLA probably deserve to be ahead of us based on resume (and likely would be had they started the year in the top 10ish instead of unranked). Wouldn't bat an eye if either or both jumped us. USC, and to a lesser extent OkSt., haven't really played anyone either, and haven't necessarily looked great to boot, so I get why we're ahead of them. Similar with Ole Miss.
But the point is, it's all pointless. Take care of business and it'll all work out. If we beat Penn St., we'll be in the driver's seat to head into Columbus 11-0. Whether we were ranked 4th or 5th or 8th or 10th halfway through the season will have no bearing...
October 10th, 2022 at 2:11 PM ^
3 key plays stand out in my mind - - to me, how we won after the late touchdown.
1 - Haskins (trips) run left following All to gain nearly a first down with 2:38 left
2 - Cade QB sneak for 1st down
3 - Haskins run left following All (again) gains another 1st down and stayed in bounds at 2min left
These 3 plays to me really won the game.
Blocking & Run Game, calm QB play.
Go Blue.
October 10th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
Great points on the runs to run the clock out, how many times over the years had we been in that position and unable to finish it off???
I would argue that even bigger than the two Haskins runs you mentioned was the one that started off the game winning drive that got us a first down and out of our own territory. Would've been easy to panic and start calling all passes after we went down 17-14, kept the offense on schedule and setup the pass to All later that drive