Reflections on Hawaii-Cal game
Just watched the replay of the game from last night and feeling even more confident about how UM will do next Saturday against Hawaii. However, I was a bit impressed with their offense at times. If it wasn't for a bad stretch at the end of the first half, that game could have gone down to the wire. Obviously UM has a much better team on both sides of the ball, but if we had to play this game @ Hawaii, considering the travel effect on our team and them having time to prepare at home, I wouldn't be so sure of the outcome (probably still a win, but not a blowout). Hard to say how good we actually are without seeing a game yet this season, but I'm glad to have a front loaded number of home games this year.
That being said, let's rejoice in the return of football season (and to watching NDSU tonight):
August 27th, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^
Cal is trash. Run all thoughts of Hawaii through that prism.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^
Exactly
August 27th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^
Cal was 8-5 last year with the #1 overall pick. They are a 6-6 (maybe) team this year, and their defense is probably the worst in the PAC 12, and Hawaii lost by 20.
If this game was in Hawaii, it would be every bit the curb stomping this is going to be next Saturday. Hawaii is awful in every aspect, they will be lucky to match last years win total of 3 this year. They are one of the 10-15 worst teams in the country and don't have an NFL player on their roster. Stop overthinking this, it will not be a contest.
August 27th, 2016 at 5:15 PM ^
Looking at Cal's schedule this might have been their only win of the season if they don't beat Oregon State. SDSU and Texas should be pretty good and their crossovers are USC, UCLA and ASU. I don't think their offense is good enough to carry that defense.
August 27th, 2016 at 5:34 PM ^
I didn't look at their full schedule before I said 6-6, just going off how the team looked. You're right they are more likely looking at 2-10, 3-9. PAC 12 is very strong this year and they only had one cupcake on the schedule (Hawaii lol).
August 27th, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^
Hawai'i won't come close to racking up 31 against UM.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:59 PM ^
I say 7 directly (including XP) and 24 if you account for field position resulting from turnovers.
August 27th, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^
Oh....fun prop bet. Who scores more: Michigan defense or the Hawaii offense.
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August 27th, 2016 at 10:46 PM ^
is the slightest bit unreasonable.
I think Hawaii scores at least 7 due to a turnover/mistake later in the game.
The shut-out predictors will gnash their teeth & rend their garments.
August 28th, 2016 at 10:33 AM ^
These are 2 not so good teams. Michigan has a HUGE advantage in talent and obviously in coaching as well. While this should be a blowout, first games are frequently a little sloppy but they are also an opportunity to see some young players get on the field if the score does indeed get out of hand.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^
Roll on you Bears. And Go Blue. The end.
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August 27th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^
You wouldn't be so sure of the outcome if we played at Hawaii.
Holy shot our fan base is full of a bunch of bitches!
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August 27th, 2016 at 3:50 PM ^
locked in. ;)
August 27th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^
if he's going to say holy shot, shouldn't he also say our fanbase is full of botches? Your gaddom right. Botches and ossholes everywhere I look.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
Read that and rolled my eyes too.
Dude should have never started this thread.
August 27th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^
And Stanford was supposed to roll NW last year, too. Long travel can be a pain and things happen in football games.
August 27th, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^
Hawaii has no where near NU's talent. Faulty analogies are faulty.
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August 27th, 2016 at 4:27 PM ^
And NW didn't have the talent that Stanford did. However, they planned and executed better, got some breaks, and had some intagibles work in their favor (e.g. travel, or "body clocks" according to the CFP committee).
August 27th, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^
But NU has superior to Hawaii which is my point. I seriously question your knowledge of college football. The gulf in talent between UM and Hawaii and NU and Stanford is significantly greater. Your entire hypothesis is fatally flawed because you are ignoring Hawaii's lack of talent. They play hard and they have a offense that is scheme to create points, but with a shortage of good athletes against a team filled with good-to-great athletes Hawaii faces an nearly insurmountable challenge. They have no one fen the equaled of Avanti Edwards, Appy State's QB. Not with his speed or agility.
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August 27th, 2016 at 6:18 PM ^
I think you are overestimating the balance between the talent of individual athletes versus the quality of coaching, preparation, and mentality. In general, I would take a team of well disciplined, experienced and cohesive players (of average talent) as opposed to an assembly of highly talented players that don't operate as an effective unit (which is what the service academies do every year, btw, sometimes with significant success).
This is not to say that our team is without talent, guidance or cohesiveness (I believe they excel in all those categories). However, my original thesis was that, when a combination of possible mitigating factors are taken into account, this Hawaii team could (could, mind you) make an interesting game against UM on their own field. As I also said, we would probably win anyway.
You go back through the last 100+ years of college football history and find ample evidence of upsets that should never have happened (at least according to common knowledge and expectations at the time). Things happen in CFB, and this is all I'm saying.
August 27th, 2016 at 6:29 PM ^
Ugh. No. Hawaii is little better than a mediocre MAC school. If this was 2008 UM you might have a point. But it is not so your point is invalid. Hawaii is not good. The only way they would ever beat UM is if UM had an abnormally bad thing and Hawaii had an abnormally good team. That is far from the case here.
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August 27th, 2016 at 6:43 PM ^
Any team can have a bad game at any time. Any team can play out of their minds and have the best game of their careers against any team. The odds favor talent, records, high salaries and the like. We watch the games because sometimes the odds are beaten.
August 27th, 2016 at 7:28 PM ^
Yes, they can. But the odds are long. Anyone can win the lottery. But 99.99% of people won't.
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August 27th, 2016 at 8:14 PM ^
Indeed. I would argue that most CFB games have more even odds to win (or be competitive) than 99.99%. Lottery odds are much slimmer.
August 27th, 2016 at 7:05 PM ^
Between UM and Hawaii is far greater than the gap in talent between NU and Stanford last year. NU wasn't great but they went 10-3 playing in the Big Ten. Hawaii went 3-10 last year playing in the MWC.
August 27th, 2016 at 4:25 PM ^
I think there're some fine points of time zone travel you may be overlooking? Like if you're going westward it's not a big deal. Except you are hungry for dinner at like 5pm in CA...
If Michigan flew to Hawaii on a Friday to play a game that started at 9pm Saturday Hawaiian time, that would affect them, as it would be 3am Sunday to their bodies...virtually any other NCAA allowable time would either be neutral or advantage Michigan (or any team flying to a later time zone) - and this Michigan team would crush this Hawaii team ANYWAY!!!!!
Stanford had what amounted to a 9am kickoff, in the Midwestern heat & humidity of Labor Day weekend (which believe me when I tell you if you live in the Bay Area ain't no joke!). When you get used to the mild weather here, the highs & lows of the rest of the country are difficult.
Football season is upon us!
August 27th, 2016 at 8:02 PM ^
Flying east has dreadful effects on performance. Flying west not so much. Although I thnk once you go over 5-6 hours, claiming that it has no effect is a bit of an exaggeration. Still, us travelling to Hawaii would be unlikely to hurt our performance. These guys are ready to run through brick walls for Harbaugh.
August 28th, 2016 at 2:46 AM ^
really! IBD!!!
August 27th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^
until we beat MSU & OSU.
Sheesh...
August 27th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
and suddenly the fanbase is "full of a bunch of bitches"?
/makes sense
August 27th, 2016 at 4:17 PM ^
as a good thing meaning our fanbase would travel well and put up a lot of cheering but maybe I should go back and read it again
August 27th, 2016 at 6:52 PM ^
You missed the point. Didn't claim that we would lose, but the margin of victory would be (likely) much smaller.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:49 PM ^
Seriously? You'd be concerned if this was a road game?
August 27th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^
...but other than that, no.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:50 PM ^
I think we'll be ready for the onside kick at the start of the game....
August 27th, 2016 at 3:51 PM ^
If anyone is even remotely worried about Hawaii beating Michigan, somethings wrong. You should have the confidence that Michigan is going to go out impose their will and blow the rainbow Warriors out of the stadium.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^
Send our second string to Hawaii, and they could play with their helmets on backwards, and we would still win by 20 points
August 27th, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
Without the advantage of vision, I don't think we would be able to win by any more than 18.
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August 27th, 2016 at 3:57 PM ^
Over under at 18.5 is what Vegas says
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August 27th, 2016 at 4:05 PM ^
At home, UM blowout of course. On road to open the season, 14+ travel hours, I'm sure that spread gets a lot smaller.
August 27th, 2016 at 4:09 PM ^
Rubbish. UM would crush them no matter where they play. You are grossly overrating Hawaii.
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August 27th, 2016 at 4:22 PM ^
I don't think he got the joke ......
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August 27th, 2016 at 5:54 PM ^
Edit: meant to reply to Salvatore. Dr. Jaws you obviously understand...
August 27th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^
One thing is for certain....there will be PAIN.
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August 27th, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^
Uh.........Hawaii gave up 630 yards of total offense, committed 5 turnovers and gave up two long rushing TDs where no one touched the ball carrier.
The game was over at halftime, really. Cal started putting in subs when it was 41-17.
Cal's defense sucks, though. If Cal had any semblance of a decent defense, they may have been up 34-0 at halftime.
August 27th, 2016 at 3:58 PM ^
As I said, Hawaii had a bad stretch in the last 5-10 minutes of the first half, but a lot of that was bad luck. That game could have easily been tied at the half, which would have changed the momentum for the second half.
I see Hawaii as an analog of Indiana, a west-coast Chaos Team. Offense can be good, defense is poor, but crazy things can happen. The travel is a serious factor too for both teams, regardless of what anyone else believes.
August 27th, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^
Hawaii is a bad Indiana. That bad stretch you refer to was because Hawaii is bad. Cal is a bottom half Pac 12 team and Hawaii got blown out. What do you think a top Big Ten team will do to such a team?
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August 27th, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^
Cal's starting qb played the whole game. they didn't put in as many back ups as u think
August 27th, 2016 at 5:07 PM ^
QBs don't play defense. hawaii got to 31 because they subbed their defense like crazy.
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August 27th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^
I think Hawaii's offense looked pretty good at times, but it's worth noting that they were playing Cal. Cal has essentially been Indiana (and usually worse) for the last three years. Here are the team defensive rankings:
2015 Cal: 108
2015 Indiana: 121
2014 Cal: 123
2014 Indiana: 92
2013 Cal: 125
2013 Indiana: 124
Personally, I thought Hawaii looked awful. I'll be surprised if we win by less than 30.