Reasonsf for Optimism - OSU Game
First, Indiana is this weekend, but the game doesn't hold much appeal in light of the B10 Race. As with many of us, I have a hard time not thinking ahead to OSU.
There are so many reasons we might expect to lose the OSU game. I thought it might be easier to focus on the reasons we might win:
- The Game is at home.
- OSU has not played anyone decent on the road this year. In fact, their schedule is pretty crazy. The only two schools anywhere near their talent level (and still a solid rung or two below) in Wisconsin and MSU hung with them into the 3rd quarter. Both were at home.
- Don Brown has been staying up nights. The mesh routes will not be there.
- Aside from Wisco, which was an early road game in our potato growing period, Michigan has performed similar to OSU against common foes. Michigan's defense has performed about the same or better than the OSU defense against MSU, Rutgers and MD. On offense, Michigan had similar yards per play in 2 of the 3 games. Overall, the transitive property does not indicate OSU as much of a favorite at all.
- The above, and the advanced metrics, do not fully tell the story of the seeming emergence of the offense through the course of the season.
- OSU will be coming off a "big game" atmosphere. It is always hard to maintain intensity over longer stretches of "big games."
- This is the title game for Michigan this year.
Of course, BPONE and all that. But, this game doesn't look as "scary" as it did a month or two ago.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
I'm fairly certain that BPONE is only cured retroactively, so I don't expect too much optimism from anyone who was alive for, you know, LAST YEAR. Or 2017. 2016. 2015. Hoke. RichRod.
At least we'll always have the John Cooper era.
November 21st, 2019 at 7:23 PM ^
I tuned out after the National Championship. What happened in all those years?
November 21st, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
For some reasonf I’m feeling pretty good about our chances.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Me toof. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
OSU hasn't been punched in the mouth yet this year.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
Toof. Mouth. I see what you did there...
November 21st, 2019 at 2:52 PM ^
don't you mean "mouf"
November 21st, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
Dude, once again, I’ll smoke what your smoking! I will crown you the mayor of Mgoblog if Michigan beats OSU.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
You spelled reasonsf wrong.
Oh whoops. I guess you weren't using it in plural form. nm
November 21st, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
Michigan has the same chance to upset OSU than Indiana has against us, 23% according to FPI. That doesn't factor in that this has seemed like a different team since October.
FPI currently give PSU at 16% chance at winning Saturday, I'd say ours is about double that given recent evidence.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
I don't put much stock in advanced metrics for the OSU game. With one recent exception that game is usually very close and is almost always decided in the 4th quarter.
My youth was filled with victories over "better" and higher ranked OSU teams. There's no reason we can't do it this year.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
I essentially read them the same as betting lines, except you can get predictions way before the lines come out
November 21st, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
That sounds about right to me. I'd say our chances are somewhere between 25-33% to beat OSU. Just to ballpark it 33% chance we win, 33% chance we lose a close game and 33% change OSU blows us out.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
I'm feeling pretty optimistic... that we can lose by less than 70
November 21st, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^
52-27 OSU
November 21st, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
I'm thinking 42-31 bad guys here.
November 21st, 2019 at 10:15 PM ^
I want to disagree.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:09 PM ^
I called Michigan by 38 against Notre Dame and that very nearly happened (31).
We've since beaten MSU by 34.
That means we'll beat OSU by 37 for the finale of this year's Rivalry Revenge Tour.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
It's always been my belief that every team plays a stink bomb game every year. You can't really avoid it. Even Alabama and Nick Saban do this, but often you can't tell because outside of their 1 non-conference neutral site game and LSU, they don't really play anyone. OSU had Purdue last year, Iowa the year before. Etc, etc. I believe the evidence is there.
Last year for Michigan it was unfortunately at OSU. This year it was at Wisconsin.
I'm hoping OSU blasts PSU into the sun and has their stink bomb in AA. That's my reason for optimism.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
Yea and last yea has played into the idea that the talent gap between the 2 teams is much larger than it is. If you look at the series as a whole even though UM has lost every game they’ve looked close enough in talent to win in 16 and 17. 15 is kind of a wash as that was Harbaugh 1st season and osu had what many consider one of the most talented teams ever. But to your point even that 15 osu team had a crappy game against msu.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
The 15 and 18 games did not have a big talent gap between the teams - not any larger than the other games had, anyway. The difference is that Meyer was able to find a specific spot where UM was really weak, and exploit the hell out of it with his best people. In 2015, the Michigan DL and LB groups were specifically weak up the middle - precisely where Elliot was pretty good behind a senior-laden, behemoth OL. Plus, Durkin was eating a crab cake instead of bringing in the deep safety. In 2018, Meyer was able to isolate Michigan's slowest player (Watson) against his fastest on quick hitting routes that didn't allow the DL to get any pressure.
The 16 and 17 games were close because there was no specific advantage to exploit anywhere. 2016 Michigan was better - flat out. 2017 featured a 3rd string QB.
I don't think there is such an obvious difference in on-field talent this year to see such an exploitation. I hope not.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^
15 had a massive talent gap. Especially on offense. Bosa and Zeeke alone created a massive talent gap.
November 21st, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
I’m thinking that game this year was Rutgers for OSU.
November 21st, 2019 at 7:21 PM ^
I'd rather see OSU win a very tough, close, draining game in Happy Valley.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Beat Indiana
November 21st, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
Stepaniak should have a target on him from the first snap.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^
Just win the next three games and the narrative will be changed moving forward into next year. I know that's a tall order, but this team is playing well enough to do so. Motivation should not be an issue.
go blue
November 21st, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
I'm optimistic too, but you don't sell your optimism when you stutter in your title "Reasonsf--f-f-for Optimism." ;)
November 21st, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
Also. If Brian is correct and the QB pressure M provides keeps QBs in the pocket, and this actually works against a Fields-level scrambler, I'm hoping he can be forced into some bad decisions.
The Michigan offense will have to score. Fields has only thrown 1 pick this year because he's been up 21 points by mid-second quarter. If he feels the need to make some plays and force things, the hope is he'll make mistakes. That or continue to be super conservative and force punts, and the longer the game stays close the better.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^
I agree and hope that we can indeed keep him in the pocket and largely keep him from scrambling.
You are right that Fields hasn’t really been tested and I don’t know if he has had to play from behind this season very much, if at all. If we get ahead by a couple of scores early, it will be telling to see if we can force him to press and make some mistakes. As good as he has looked, and as talented as he is, he is still inexperienced and I think it’s possible DB will find some real ways to mess with him.
To have a chance, I think we have to come out with guns blazing on offense and put OSU in a place they haven’t been yet this season - playing from behind and feeling a bit of desperation.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
I mean, he has to have weaknesses right? If he's actually this good, Kirby Smart should be barred from coaching anything above pewee football ever again. I don't care if Fromm is a great leader and makes the right decisions and feeds puppies and walks the elderly, you cannot let a Heisman-level QB leave your team in favor of a game manager.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
To your first bullet point I say, "A place at which we have won twice since 2003." That doesn't help.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
We haven't beat them in Columbus since 2000.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Home field is a very real thing in college football. We haven't won the Game recently more because of being out-talented and out-coached. I think the talent level is back to that needed to beat OSU and I think Harbaugh is a better coach than Ryan Day.
Harbaugh has built teams, transitioned systems and overcome adversity while still having a very good track record.
Ryan Day might have a David Shaw career, taking over a huge cruise liner operating full steam ahead. He may end up being a great coach, but he hasn't hit a wave yet. (Unless you count a sliding WIsco team at home). Everyone does and how you respond determines who you become.
November 21st, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
This is a really thin prediction, but I'm going to make it anyway: I think Day leaves for the NFL. He's a superstar play caller and offensive mind, but he's not the cult of personality you need to be in recruiting and motivating. He doesn't need either of those things in the pros. Maybe not this year, but next.
I see him as an odd fit at OSU, somehow. He doesn't look comfortable and I don't think he ever will. I see him as a Kyle Shanahan. His offensive mind has do much value at the pro level, and he doesn't have to worry about these things to which he doesn't seem suited.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
Day's wife and 4 young children disagree with the NFL gig idea......
November 21st, 2019 at 1:36 PM ^
Why is that?
November 21st, 2019 at 2:39 PM ^
I don't buy this bull shit for a second. If anything, an NFL job would allow Day to spend more time with his family (if that is what you're getting at). There is an actual off season with the NFL.
November 21st, 2019 at 3:11 PM ^
Whasure theres an off season but it isnt super long. Training camps start around July 10th and I'm guessing the coaches are there at least a week ahead of time prepping. Season goes into early January, later if you make the playoffs. Maybe a little break and then Im guessing coaches and management are back at it with meetings and film for which free agents from their team they would like to keep and which free agents from other teams they might want to sign. After the free agency period you start focusing on the draft and combines. Between the draft and start of camp you have OTAs, which for the players are only for a few days but I'm guessing the coaches report earlier then the players and stay a little longer then the players.
November 21st, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^
Bullshit! My family are friends with a well know NFL DC and former HC. There is no offseason and you wouldn't believe what it's like during the year. The guy is twice divorced sleeps on a cot in his office because there is no point in even going home at 2am...
November 21st, 2019 at 4:12 PM ^
This has never been an issue for any great coach. Plus, it makes no sense considering the lighter time requirement in the NFL. Weird ass opinion, man.
EDIT: okay, wait, was this a Harbaugh's wife doesn't want him in CFB joke?
November 21st, 2019 at 4:36 PM ^
It's not a weird opinion, he just didn't articulate it well. The point OSUtopia was trying to make is that Day gave an interview earlier this year about moving his young family around 3 times in 3 years (Philly to SF to Columbus from 2015 to 2017), and being sick of having to uproot them again.
Day can obviously say whatever he wants to the media to quell speculation about his future, but OSUtopia was specifically referencing Day's own words about not wanting to move his family anymore.
November 21st, 2019 at 6:43 PM ^
I have never seen that matter to any coach. Especially an ambitious up and comer. Ever.
November 21st, 2019 at 10:20 PM ^
ok well i'm just telling you what he said
November 21st, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
On the other hand, from what we've seen of him so far he hasn't shown much sign of weakness in recruiting or motivating.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
That's OSU and the massive success they've had over the last several years selling itself, IMO. We won't know how good of a recruiter he is unless he stays for a few years.
November 21st, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
On the other hand, from what we've seen of him so far he hasn't shown much sign of weakness in recruiting or motivating.
November 21st, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
Is this prediction better than your early season prediction of 4-5 losses for OSU based on your analysis of their spring game?
I'm not sure what you've seen from Ryan Day in the few months he's run his own program to affirmatively declare that he is uncomfortable recruiting and motivating college kids.
I'm also not sure I agree that Day was or is an "NFL guy." He was a Chip Kelly guy who got plucked out of a college OC job in 2015 to coach with Kelly because Kelly was in the NFL. And Day just turned down an NFL OC job with the Titans before 2018. If Day's goal was to be an NFL HC, the path of least resistance was to take that Titans job and go NFL OC to NFL HC in a few years. The fact that he didn't do that makes me think the NFL isn't something he is eyeing.
November 21st, 2019 at 7:55 PM ^
I personally think Ryan Day is a good coach because of his ability to adjust and strategize. And while he may be more x's and o's savvy than Urban Meyer, I just don't know how he will handle decision-making in a close game. Props to him for game planning so well that OSU has beaten every team by 20+ points, but I want to see how things go when their back is against the wall. Something we haven't seen yet, which IMO, makes a coach like Saban, Meyer, even Dabo right now elite.
November 22nd, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
I mean OSU's backs were against the wall vs. TCU last year and Day was the head coach then. It was 33-28 OSU going into the 4th quarter. And OSU trailed 14-13 at half, and 21-13 midway through the 3rd.
November 22nd, 2019 at 12:44 AM ^
"He doesn't look comfortable and I don't think he ever will."
Like Harbaugh? 