Rankings Roundup after Week 4: AP, Coaches, SP+

As always, early-season caveats about SP+ apply. The preseason numbers are slowly having less weight as we get more games under our belt. Here are the numbers after week 4.

COMPARING AP, COACHES, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)

The week featured several ranked matchups. Who were the winners and losers in the polls?

Georgia and Michigan remain the consensus #1 and #2 in the polls, with SP+ giving Michigan the nod at the #1 position. It seems that the model was sufficiently happy with Michigan’s slow-motion 31-7 beatdown of Rutgers, even while many in the game thread walked away less than convinced.

Moving further down the rankings, Texas is still back! Also, the toughest bunch of tough guys from toughsville toughed out a victory over Notre Dame. That was good enough to leapfrog FSU (tough shit Seminoles). Next week it’s OSU versus the world. Those tough bastards better be ready. 

We also bid Adieu to Colorado this week. I would say au revoir but I doubt we’ll be meeting again anytime soon.

In general, there’s a little bit of disagreement among the AP and Coaches polls, but otherwise they are pretty much in agreement about the top teams. The big differences are between the humans and the SP+ model. SP is not as enamored with Texas and FSU, ranking both of them considerably lower than the AP and Coaches. On the other hand, SP+ really like 3 of next year’s new B1G teams, ranking Washington, USC, and Oregon at 4, 5, and 6, respectively. 

SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)

Damn it’s nice to see Michigan at the top. After living through the lean times, this run is really something to enjoy. Michigan also dethroned the reigning #1 defense dating back to last season, moving Iowa down one spot to #2. 

As always, it’s fun to compare the offensive and defensive spreads. North Carolina is the newest leader in the “defense is optional” category, replacing USC with the largest spread between their offensive and defensive rankings. Utah is the least Pac of all top-25 Pac teams, with a top-10 defense but only the #37 ranked offense. Still, that #37 offense is better than all but the top-3 B1G teams.

Speaking of B1G teams…Woof.

Seriously? Only 5 teams can manage to field a SP+ top-40 offense while the remaining 9 teams are all ranked 70 or higher. 

At this point, I’m thinking that a relegation model within the B1G wouldn’t be such a bad idea. The only problem would be finding enough teams to put in the top tier. Maybe it’s also time to start thinking about some unequal revenue sharing. I mean, it just doesn’t seem right that Oregon, Washington, and USC will come into the conference and raise it’s overall quality while getting significantly less money than the ever increasing number of dregs in the B1G. I don’t know. I’m just spitballing here. Tell me why I’m wrong.

TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)

I wanted to try something new and I thought it would be interesting to look at the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason until now. Here they are.

Apologies for the overlapping team labels. There’s nothing I can do about that unless I make them so small they’re essentially unreadable.

Anyway, it looks like we’re starting to get some compression in the top 25, maybe as the last season’s effects get factored out. We’re definitely beginning to cluster around a few tiers. Only about 5 points currently separate #1 Michigan (nice!) from #9 Penn State.  

SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Standard interpretation applies:

• Top-right: Good at offense and defense
• Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
• Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
• Bottom-left: Not so good at football

Now do I have your attention for a B1G relegation or unequal revenue sharing model? 

SP RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference.

It looks like the SEC is finally starting to come down to Earth. The average SP+ rating last week was 15 points, compared to about 12.5 points this week. 

Anything you find interesting?