Rankings Roundup after Week 11: CFP, AP, SP+ (Bonus graphs edition)

Submitted by Blue@LSU on November 15th, 2023 at 9:02 AM

I had lots of things I’ve been wanting to look at this week, so I added a few more graphs. It may be a bit too much but I’m just going to throw it all in there. 

COMPARING CFP, AP, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)

Hey CFP Committee: rank James Madison, you cowards! The NCAA is screwing these kids based on some stupid rule. Force them to make the right decision.

Here’s the SP+ profile of the CFP top 25.

For those that want to keep track, here is the number CFP top-25 teams by conference:

  • SEC: 6
  • Pac 12: 5
  • Big 12: 5
  • B1G: 4
  • ACC: 3
  • Independent: 1
  • AAC: 1

SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)

Focusing on the SP+ …

It took some time, but USC has finally done it. They've achieved the inverse Iowa.

If anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:

  • #2 Georgia @ #16 Tennessee
  • #9 Washington @ #14 Oregon State
  • #22 Utah @ #32 Arizona
  • #18 North Carolina @ #20 Clemson
  • #23 UCLA @ #24 USC
  • #17 USC @ #4 Oregon

Meanwhile, in the B1G…

I’m just gonna channel my inner Biff Poggi here and say ‘Quit whining and get better teams!’

TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 9

Connelly noted that #1 Michigan is about the same distance from #5 Penn State (8.7 points) as #5 PSU is from #19 Ole Miss.

SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Standard interpretation applies:

  • Top-right: Good at offense and defense
  • Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
  • Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
  • Bottom-left: Not so good at football

Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category. For example, Michigan is 1.38 standard deviations above the the average SP+ offense, and 2.41 standard deviations below (this is good) the average SP+ defense.   

Only 3 B1G offenses are above the P5 average. The four worst SP+ offenses in the P5 are all in the B1G. 

I also thought it would be interesting to compare this current graph to previous years’ playoff teams, semifinalists, and CFP champions. The graphs below are the same as above, with year-based standardized coefficients. So, for example, Alabama’s 2017 offense was 1 standard deviation above the average 2017 offense, and their defense was 2.5 standard deviations below (in the good direction) the average 2017 defense. 

 

 

Since these z-scores are year specific, it isn’t possible to make direct comparisons between the teams across years (the average offense and defense scores as the baseline comparison change every year). But if we did make comparisons, which we definitely shouldn’t, Michigan’s current offense and defense would compare favorably. It would be to the right and just a bit below Georgia’s 2021 team. 

But we are not making comparisons. Unless we are. Which we are not. 😊

Oregon, Georgia, and Ohio State also match the profile of previous CFP champions.

SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference. 

And since people like to see it, here’s the graph after conference realignment. It looks like USC and UCLA 

And just for the hell of it, let’s see how these shit bottom of the barrel B1G teams compare to non-P5 schools.

The bottom five teams in the B1G—Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, MSU, and Indiana—are bad. I mean, bad as in none of them would be higher than:

  • 4th place in the CUSA or MAC
  • 5th place in the AAC or MWC
  • 6th place in the Sun Belt

Bad as in Northwestern, Purdue, MSU, and Indiana are the same as the average Sun Belt team. We could also say the same thing about the ACC and PAC (to a lesser extent), but I’m talking about the B1G now.

Hell, James Madison (let them play a bowl you cowards), SMU, or Liberty (barf!) would be the 4th best SP+ teams in the B1G.

Quit whining and get better teams!

 

Thanks for reading.

Go Blue!

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MGoBoz

November 15th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^

This post, particularly comparing the CFP to SP+ and AP, is all the more interesting now that "wE'vE pLaYeD sOmEboDy" (obvious /s) on the road. Just goes to show we are better than that group of handpicked individuals in a room. 

Guess we just survive and advance. 

Joined: 10/17/2012

MGoPoints: 1135

Blue@LSU

November 15th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^

I think the CFP committee saying that JMU is one of the top 25 teams in the country would help JMU with their appeal to the NCAA. 

I just think it is a silly and illogical rule. My understanding is that it was put in place to prevent teams from moving up to the Division I level before they are ready. But if they are able to make a bowl game two years in a row (let alone be ranked #18 in the AP), then that shows that they were ready to move up to Division I. In other words, the rule can only punish those teams that should not be punished by its own logic.

Joined: 11/04/2016

MGoPoints: 80329

Wolverine 73

November 15th, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^

I wonder if the top Big Ten defenses are as good as they appear, or if the Big Ten offenses by and large just suck, making the defenses look better.  Guess we will know come playoff time.  

Joined: 08/03/2009

MGoPoints: 27282

Bo Harbaugh

November 15th, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^

Yea.  It’s very reflexive.

I think OSU’s defense is very overrated.

They will be exposed by a team that can go jumbo and run, spread it out and pass, or go play action and involve 2 great TE’s.  Michigan is too multiple, unlike anything they have seen against 1 dimensional B1G teams.

3 loss Notre Dame had them beat if they just keep running.  We, in true Harbaugh fashion, will not stop running until they put 9 in the box.  Then we will leak out the TE’s and take shots downfield. 
 

Speed up McCord and they are screwed on offense.  They survived PSU at home…I think he’ll be a deer in headlights at the big house.

Joined: 08/03/2019

MGoPoints: 38650

DelhiWolverine

November 15th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^

I hope to God that OSU's defense is very overrated, but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if they are. They have very talented players and they are now 2 years deep into their new scheme. They have one of the top scoring defenses in the country and you can't have that level of success without being good.

I will say that we don't really know *how* good their defense is because the best offenses they have played this year are Notre Dame (20th SP+ offense) and Penn State (23rd SP+ offense). Michigan is the 7th ranked SP+ offense and that's a big difference from anything they have yet encountered. OSU's defense is banged up right now too, according to their injury report before playing MSU. Before last Saturday's game, Safety Cam Martinez was questionable, and LB Tommy Eighenberg, DL Jason Moore, S Josh Proctor, S Lathan Ranson, and DL WIll Smith Jr. were all OUT. 

So I can see Michigan (especially in a home game) coming out with an offensive game plan that takes what the OSU defense gives them. If their guys aren't fully healthy for the Game, it will be interesting to see if M's offensive game plan takes it right to the guys replacing their starting safeties with both the passing and running game.

I like our chances against OSU better than any game in the past 3 years, but I'm not necessarily ready to pronounce that their D can't hang with Michigan. 

Joined: 11/26/2017

MGoPoints: 11910

funkywolve

November 15th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^

I think it's definitely a little of both - pretty good defenses but pretty bad offenses.  The last couple of years UM's defense has been ranked really high heading into the playoffs and then struggled in the semi-final game.  I realize that the long layoff gives offenses time to make some tweaks and put some surprises in and that when it comes to playoffs, you're usually playing elite teams but both Georgia and TCU had a lot of success against Michigan's defenses.  

At least to me, one of the benefits of having the 4 Pac-12 teams joining the Big 10 is they all generally have wide open offenses with good talent.  Not something Michigan sees very often in the Big Ten.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20251

Amazinblu

November 15th, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^

Thanks for posting - this is great information.

Did I miss the toughness chart?   

There are a number of very good teams this season - more parity than college football has had in a while.

The teams that I feel are in the "upper echelon" based on their current level of play include: Michigan, Georgia. Alabama, and Oregon.  Just outside that group is: Ohio State, Washington, Texas, and FSU.

I like Michigan's chances in any future game.

Go Blue!

Joined: 01/22/2010

MGoPoints: 41521

Newton Gimmick

November 15th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^

#35 SP+ team, on the road, in a big sandwich spot on the schedule, would normally sound dicey.  For some reason I am not worried, and I'm *always* worried.  I think it's just because Michigan is a handle-your-business team and Maryland is the opposite of that.  

Definitely do not want a 2018-Indiana-game style quagmire though: frustrating inability to put them away, having to keep starters in, getting key players banged up...

Joined: 05/06/2015

MGoPoints: 33792

oriental andrew

November 15th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^

I'm just biding my time for UNLV to run the table and become an 11-2 top 25 Mountain West champion. Only losses so far are to Michigan and a 1-score game to 8-2 Fresno State. Next up for them is 8-2 Air Force and close with 5-5 San Jose State. If they win those, they go to the MWCG to play 

The game against AFA is critical. Both UNLV and AFA are 5-1 in conference, with Fresno State, Boise State, and San Jose State sitting at 4-2. 

UNLV needs a win this weekend. If they go 1-1, it's highly likely Fresno St wins out (two bottom teams left) and the tie-breaker over them (head-to-head). AFA would also have h2h and would win the tie-breaker even if they drop their last game against Boise State. With a 3-way tie between UNLV, FSU, and AFA, UNLV loses out. 

Wow, that was way more thinking about UNLV than I had intended. 

Anyway, rank UNLV, cowards!

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 56198

BuckeyeChuck

November 15th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^

I'll add Nate Manzo's compilation of multiple ratings:

Image

Image

It does appear that the computer models are showing that Michigan, Georgia, Oregon & Ohio St are separating themselves as the top 4.

The four worst SP+ offenses in the P5 are all in the B1G.

And 6 others are knocking on the door! Probably 10 of the worst 18. Ugh. Welcome, West Coast members!

 

Look at how Alabama changed from being defense-focused up through 2017 and then offense-focused from 2018 on.

Joined: 11/20/2011

MGoPoints: 18326

M-Dog

November 15th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^

I always respected that. 

It is very rare for an organization at the top of the food chain to fundamentally adjust their approach while they are at the top.  They just deny the threat from below as a novelty or a joke.  GM, IBM, Sears, ABC/NBC/CBS Broadcast TV . . . all say Hi!

Saban saw what was coming down the road and did not wait for it to engulf his program.  He adjusted to the times before it was too late, when you knew that doing so was against his very DNA.

Hats off to him for that. 

 

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257516

softshoes

November 15th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^

James Madison, 5th President, Father of the Constitution and un-fucking-defeated in football. Not to mention they beat the little guy in E Lansing. 

Rank them and give them a shot at a great bowl game.

Joined: 09/09/2010

MGoPoints: 12012

Blue@LSU

November 15th, 2023 at 10:52 AM ^

I'm curious what other people think about Washington. I know some think they are getting screwed by the CFP because they probably have some of the best wins in the CFP top 25 (Arizona, Oregon, Utah, USC). But that defense just doesn't seem like it's going to hold up. At #41, it is 15 points lower than the next lowest defense in the top 10 (Missouri at #26).

I'll be looking forward to a rematch against Oregon in the Pac conference championship game. 

Joined: 11/04/2016

MGoPoints: 80329

Amazinblu

November 15th, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^

Personally, I would rank Washington over FSU.   This will all play out in the next three weeks.

Washington has more challengers awaiting them.   It's Oregon State this weekend.  The Apple Cup next weeks (against Wazzou) - and, then (most likely) Oregon again in the Pac-12 CCG.

I would place either / both Oregon or Washington ahead of FSU after the CCGs.   But, that's my perspective.   I'm not a voter or part of the CFP Selection Committee.

Joined: 01/22/2010

MGoPoints: 41521

Jonesy

November 15th, 2023 at 7:08 PM ^

I'd rank it UGA, M, OSU, Wash, Oregon, FSU, Texas, Bama.

UGA is finally playing good opponents and is beating them handily so they get the nod over us. If we played PSU instead of pretending we were playing OSU and beat them 38-3 as I think we could have I'd put us first, but we chose a different route (which I'm fine with) and I can't put us over them. OSU is the clear other member of the top 3. I think Oregon is better than Washington but H2H matters. FSU is meh but undefeated so they get next. I think Bama is better than Texas but H2H matters.

Joined: 03/14/2012

MGoPoints: 10568