Quantitative demographic data and qualitative cultural commentary

Michigan football has not been competing at a high level since 2006, when we came up just short at Columbus in the Game of the Century. 2011 was an anomaly.  RichRod couldn’t win at Michigan, Hoke couldn’t win at Michigan, and Harbaugh isn’t winning at Michigan.  The common factor for over a decade and across three coaches is Michigan.

Success or failure at the level of a major collegiate football program doesn’t come down to tackles who can or can’t block.  It’s the culmination of scores of factors, and these factors are no longer adding up to a very good to great Michigan football program.  They haven’t added up to a highly competitive Michigan football program for more than a decade.  And I’m doing all of the following quantitative figuring in my head and after a few beers so there will be mistakes but they won’t detract from my argument.

Between 1980 and today, the population of the state of Michigan grew by less than 10%. The national average during that time is almost 50%. I don’t need to belabor this point; we all know why this happened.  And the region of the state most likely to produce excellent football players (metro Detroit) has been hit hardest, demography-wise.  Ohio experienced similar demographic trends, but the South, Texas/Oklahoma, the Southwest, and the West have all had higher population growth rates. The end result relevant to Michigan football is relatively fewer and fewer high school football players in the state of Michigan compared to the rest of the country.  Michigan football is starting with shittier and shittier odds year after year that a Michigan kid will become a very good or great football player and put on a Winged Helmet. 

Compounding that very basic problem, the state of Michigan doesn’t have a great high school football culture. Ohio’s high school football programs are much more competitive, and we all know about high school football culture in SEC land and Texas/Oklahoma. I don’t watch high school football but after spending years in Tennessee and western Arkansas, it is astonishing how much folks down here care about high school football.  Growing up in Michigan, high school football in the 80s and 90s just wasn’t a big deal.  (Why would it be when the economy is tanking?)

Making the matter even more dire, none of the other high-level college football programs in similarly-sized or smaller states must compete with another in-state major college football program for recruits (with two exceptions). Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, and so on don’t have another competitive college football program in the same state. Florida and Texas have multiple other competitors in state but those states are so much more populous the issue is greatly mitigated. Oklahoma, Oregon, and Washington don’t really need to worry about their State competitors because the Cowboys, Beavers, and Huskies are not really that competitive. Only Alabama and Auburn are in the same situation, and that’s Alabama - where the only thing that matters is football (and also BBQ).  Why do you think Alabama and Auburn worked so nefariously to get UAB’s football program shut down?

Here are the numbers, year by year, from 247 Sports as far back as their data go:

2018: Michigan produced zero 5 star prospects and eight 4 stars (three to UM, three to MSU, one to Kentucky (?), and one to Fresno State (?))

2017: One 5 star, five 4 stars (DPJ was the 5 star, all of the 4 stars went to UM also)

2016: Zero 5 stars, ten 4 stars (two went to UM, four went to MSU, two went to ND, one went to OSU)

2015: Zero 5 stars, three 4 stars (one went to UM, one went to MSU, one to OSU)

2014: Zero 5 stars, five 4 stars (two went to UM, two went to MSU, one to OSU)

2013: Zero 5 stars, eight 4 stars (five to UM, two to MSU, one to ND)

2012: Zero 5 stars, eight 4 stars (six to UM, one to MSU, one to Tennessee)

2011: Zero 5 stars, six 4 stars (two to UM, one each to MSU, PSU, Tennessee, and Florida)

2010: One 5 star (went to MSU), six 4 stars (two to PSU, one each to UM, OSU, and Oregon)

That’s two 5 star prospects in the last nine years from the state of Michigan; one went to MSU and one went to UM.  Of the 59 4 stars, 26 went to UM, 14 went to MSU, and 16 went out of state.

Compare that with Ohio – over the same time, the state of Ohio produced six 5 stars and a staggering 129 4 stars.  Ohio produces more 4 star recruits every year than can earn a scholarship at Ohio State.  The main beneficiary is Michigan. Desmond and Charles!  Ohio has 11.6 million residents while Michigan has 10 million residents, so we should expect Ohio to produce more 5 and 4 star recruits. But we don’t need a statistical analysis to show Ohio produces relatively far more 5 and 4 star high school football players than Michigan!  And you probably won’t be surprised that none of Ohio’s 5 or 4 star players went to Ohio University.

As for Alabama…since 2010, the state of Alabama produced 13 5 star and 86 4 star prospects.  Alabama’s population is 4.8 million.  The state of Alabama outproduces the state of Michigan by a considerable margin with a population less than half as large!

In the past, having a national reach helped recruiting outside of Michigan’s borders. Almost all our greatest players were from out of state.  Can you name more than a handful of Michigan greats from the last 30 years who were Michigan natives and had/are having solid NFL careers?  I can only think of LaMarr and Funchess.  That no longer applies to the same extent. When there were a few national television networks showing a handful of college football games, a talented high school player in BFE knew about USC, Texas, Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, and a few other football programs.  Now there are so many television channels showing so many college football games that kids know about places that didn’t even have football programs 30-40 years ago like UCF.

Michigan’s winters probably even play a minor role in our ability to recruit nationally, too. After I graduated from UM, I went to UW. Madison is colder than Ann Arbor, but winters in Wisconsin are better than eastern Michigan because the sun isn’t concealed by an impenetrable layer of suicide gray clouds from November through April.  For every Florida kid like Denard and California kid like Brady who are willing to brave the Michigan winter, how many kids from states with nicer winters visit Ann Arbor and come away thinking ‘everything was great but the weather?’  Michigan kids are used to it, but Michigan doesn’t produce that many great high school football players. Not surprising that many of our more recent standouts are from Jersey, where winters are also terrible. 

Michigan’s brutal winters also diminish the numbers of good football programs because hockey is just as fun as football. None of the states with high-level college football programs lose substantial numbers of high school athletes with football-appropriate body types to hockey except Wisconsin.  Without diving into the numbers, this is undoubtedly a more serious problem for Minnesota than Michigan.

So where do we go from here? First, accept that Michigan football is not an elite football program, if you haven’t already. Second, accept that Michigan football is highly unlikely to ever be an elite football program again. Third, look at the rise of Wisconsin and Michigan State.  Both focused on two things: beating their primary rival and more importantly, developing three and four star recruits.  Harbaugh has not demonstrated the willingness or ability to do either of these things.  Ohio State is no longer our main rival – Michigan State is now our primary rival because they steal the state's 4 star recruits from us, and we are losing that rivalry. We’re 2-8 against MSU in the last decade. That’s bad! But we’re still out-recruiting them.  That’s good!  And it could be worse: Minnesota is 2-18 against Wisconsin in the last two decades and has not beaten Wisconsin since 2003 when they squeaked out a 3 point win.  Michigan and Wisconsin (largely) schedule non-conference cupcakes, and Wisconsin has the advantage of being in the garbage B1G West. A large factor in MSU's and UW's ability to develop 3 and 4 star recruits is that both schools have a football identity: MSU plays great defense and has a massive chip on their shoulder (I read their student section was chanting about Harbaugh while losing to Utah State, just...wow), while Wisconsin is arguably the best ground and pound team in the nation and has fun.

Neither MSU nor Wisconsin have become elite, but both are consistently very good and occasionally great.  MSU’s administration is a dumpster fire (President Engler, lol) and who knows what will happen when Angry Mork’s black heart forces him to retire, but Wisconsin’s maintained its identity over four different coaches, none of whom have missed a beat because Alvarez built that football team and has been AD since his retirement from coaching.  Michigan has no football identity because of both the coaching and AD carousels, chasing the ghosts of greatness gone by when the rest of the field is moving forward.  What even is Michigan football?  Until we figure that out, expect more mediocrity.