Pure Statistical Regression (I'm looking at you, Al Borges)
I've accepted the near fact that Borges will be back next year, but after the 2013 sports year (Detroit & UM fan) this research was strangely cathartic. It's like I need to quantify just how terrible the decisions being made actually are.
I am also of the mindset that changing the entire regime would be a bad move at this point. (Which was also my position following the 2010 Gator Bowl ... arguing at the time a coaching change wouldn't guarantee anything, and if made a regression over the next few seasons was likely. I wrote the italicized text below before Hoke was hired):
"2011: Sets up great for UM, say they go 10-2 ...
2012: Nightmare schedule. 8-4 is possible, with another loss to OSU
2013: Say there's under-achievement ... is 8-4 gonna [cut it]?
So in 3 years at Michigan, the new coach has "regressed". Of course no UM fan thinks this is possible ... But it's 100% possible, and even probable. In the scenario above, UM has won 0 Big Ten titles, 0 BCS games, and is 1-2 against OSU?"
Here are the statistics against retaining Borges. I'm sure I'll get the usual "oh, you're cherry-picking statistics for your own agenda" responses, but ... um ... there's a plethora of ripe cherries to pick here, and it's a slow Monday.
Median/Avg Yards Per Season:
2011 (Jr Denard): 418 / 404.7
2012 (Sr Denard): 389 / 383.1
2013 (Jr Gardner): 365 / 373.1
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12 games less than 300 yards offense (2-10 record)
- 3 in 2011, 4 in 2012, 5 in 2013 (4 of last 6 games)
-
9 OT periods played in those 39 games
- 116 total yards, 3 TDs, 30 pts
Avg Offense, home:
· 466.5 yards per game (21 games)
· 7 games over 500 yards, 2 games under 300
Avg Offense, road:
· 314.6 yards per game (14 games)
· ONCE over 400 yards (2011 NW)
Avg Offense, neutral:
· 267.3 (4 games [Bowls & ALA 2012]
· High is 355 yards (2012 SCAR / Outback Bowl)
December 30th, 2013 at 11:56 AM ^
December 30th, 2013 at 10:32 PM ^
December 30th, 2013 at 12:00 PM ^
the number of negative plays Michigan had this year. Someone posted this a day or two ago. We were ranked something like 123rd of all FBS schools. A lot of these were due to:
1. Horrible blocking
2. The other team knowing what we're going to do
3. Bad decisions by Devin, Fitz, and others while running the ball.
4. Devin not reading the defense formations properly - especially missing the blitz.
5. And of course, poor play selection.
A lot of this ultimately comes down to coaching though. The players have to do what they're told, but when the problem becomes systemic, you have to look to those in charge.
December 30th, 2013 at 12:00 PM ^
December 30th, 2013 at 12:23 PM ^
Stats can always be deceiving. Sometimes it makes sense to look at things without focusing solely on the stats... Disclaimer: I am neither pro nor anti Gorgeous Al
2013 OSU he had a great game plan, and came out guns blazing. He hung up 41 points on OSU. Did OSU shit the bed a little bit? Yes, but Borges' gameplan worked well. There were moments he showed why he's one of the highest paid OCs in the country.
I know this site has been redundant with the fire Borges mentality, peppering in some Borges Apologists here and there, but I feel quite a few of the posters here don't really form educated opinions on their own, they just regurgitate others' opinions. I love reading the same thing posted 100 times on a board post. Some examples:
Fire Borges!
Fire Funk!
Hoke should be gone!
Mediochrity is the new norm for Michigan!
Mattison sucks too, can't excuse his shitty defenses!
Youth isn't an excuse!
I haven't chimed in with my addition to the circle jerk.. until now! With the roster we have, especially at OL, I don't know many offensive coordinators that would've done better than Borges this year. I don't think it's any mystery, the OL is where a lot of problems stemmed from this year. It's hard to run any plays when your OL is as porous as a colander. They made the decision to shuffle through the OL, trying to get better performances out of RS Freshmen, or RS Sophomores starting for their first time, but this line never even looked average. Part of the problem lies in the numbers.
OT: 2 RS Sr Tackles multi-year starters, 2 RS Fr, 2 Fr.
OG/C: 1 RS Jr WO, 1 RS So WO, 2 RS So, 2 RS Fr, 4 Fr.
Counting Burzinsky and Glasgow as scholarship players.
RS Seniors: 12%
RS Juniors: 6%
RS Sophomores: 19%
RS Freshmen: 25%
Freshmen: 38%
That's 63% that are RS freshmen or younger.
Not Counting Burzinsky and Glasgow as scholarship players
RS Seniors: 14%
RS Juniors: 0%
RS Sophomores: 14%
RS Freshmen: 29%
Freshmen: 43%
That's 72 % that are RS freshmen or younger.
Youth might be a bit of an excuse in this case. The trenches are where the game is won, and we have between 63-72% of our offensive line seeing the field for their first time this year.
Youth is not an excuse! Player development is key!
I can agree with that, but you can't expect players to make insane leaps and bounds only seeing the field for 3 months. Next year they will have had an entire off-season to correct their mistakes on the field from this year. If Funk and Borges don't show they have corrected the errors from this year, then something should be done. But with the hands they were dealt this year, I can't rationally say this staff needs extreme readjustments.
December 30th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^
really ??? C'mon everyone knows that. Fact is that this team that started with a blowout win and high quality game against ND, then sputtered beyond what anyone could expect. We lost 5 of the last 6 games we played , and that win was a miracle win at Northwestern.
We started 5-0 and had PSU down for the count with 6 minutes to play, when Borges froze the game rather than playing to crush them. Then back to back negative rushing yards per game against MSU and Nebraska (along with the absolute failure after the muffed punt). Then came Iowa ... And BTW Al, you could have run the BWW 2pt conversion against ohio, even if Devin had turf toe.
Whatever the reason anyone wants to use to describe the VERY disappointing year ... the fact is that SOMETHING at the coaching level needs to change. Status quo is simply a receipe for the same type of season in 2014.
Go Blue!
December 30th, 2013 at 1:26 PM ^
Your reply doesn't really address what my post was about. We had 4 scholarship offensive linemen that were RS Sophomores or older. That number is insanely low. You need the players to play the game, and if you don't have the players, there isn't much you can do. It's rare underclassmen kill it in the trenches.
I think it's universally accepted this season was a disappointment. A lot of people were predicting an 8-10 win season with a big ten championship game. This team had a great game against ND, just like they had a great game against OSU. One was the second game of the season, one was the second to last. The offensive line woes were exposed after the ND game, and everyone knew how to beat us after that.
What I don't agree with is something NEEDS to be done at the coaching level. If Hoke fires Borges, I'll be happy. If Hoke fires Funk, I'll be happy. If he fires both, I'll be happy. If Hoke fires neither of them and we have a 7-5 season next year, I'll be a bit unhappy.
December 30th, 2013 at 1:58 PM ^
December 30th, 2013 at 4:55 PM ^
at Penn State ... I'm sorry, but you then have ZERO credibility.
We had a 10 point lead and driving the football, and Al took his foot off the gas. He called run after run into a 9 man front just to run the clock. We moved the football entirely on the pass or Devin's scrambles the 2nd half and had taken total control of the game and Borges FAILED to do his job when it was time to finish them.
Go Blue!
December 30th, 2013 at 1:27 PM ^
The irony of your post, which criticizes a) statistics and b) regurgitation of opinions put forth on this site, and is then backed up with statistics and blaming youth.
Intentional or not, well done sir.
December 30th, 2013 at 1:43 PM ^
My stats and regurgitated opinions shouldn't be taken lightly, because it's me saying it.
I'm so happy nobody seems to remember my username, I haven't lost any points in a week!
December 30th, 2013 at 12:52 PM ^
I don't need to hear any comments about this. I was there watching Bo lead his team.
December 30th, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^
do we give Hoke a free pass in the debacle?
December 30th, 2013 at 2:07 PM ^
I refuse to set foot in the big house next year if Al Borges is still OC.
December 30th, 2013 at 4:31 PM ^
add sarcasm....
Now.
December 30th, 2013 at 4:47 PM ^
ANGAR!
December 30th, 2013 at 2:19 PM ^
When was the last time an audible on offense was called? I'm being serious. It kills me every time when we show blitz and our opponent stops, checks into new blocks/formations etc and then executes a play that isn't a TFL. I can't remember the last time I've seen this from Michigan.
December 30th, 2013 at 2:26 PM ^
When was the last time an audible on offense was called? I'm being serious. It kills me every time when we show blitz and our opponent stops, checks into new blocks/formations etc and then executes a play that isn't a TFL. I can't remember the last time I've seen this from Michigan.
December 30th, 2013 at 2:47 PM ^
I think the running game will improve. Fitz was a horrible back. He couldn't pass block or run between the tackles. For some reason Hoke and company think seniors should always start just because they are seniors. Hopefully Green and Smith work their tails off this off season and are vastly improved.
December 30th, 2013 at 9:12 PM ^
December 31st, 2013 at 1:43 AM ^