Predictions for the next 4 days?
1. Tomorrow afternoon, M holds a press conference at which Hoke announces that he is resigning effective the end of the season. He gets to walk out on his own terms to some extent, add a good amount of intrigue for the game and possibly give his players the shot in the arm they have desperately needed all season. If I were Hoke, I would rather do this than go through the "evaluation" a day or so later.
2. No announcement, we play OSU and lose, likely badly. I expect that Hackett would conduct his evaluation in short order and that Hoke would be relieved of his job in a Monday or Tuesday presser.
3. We win the game. I expect that Hoke is still gone, but the evaluation takes more than a day or so, as there will be some entrenched factions arguing for one more year, and Hackett will need to look like he is at least being thorough.
Assuming that it's 1 or 2, what is the timing of the new hire? Other than a schiano, every other likely coach is going to be busy completing their nfl season or preparing for a bowl game. Unfortunately, I expect that this means that we may have a vacancy for 3-4 weeks in December.
November 28th, 2014 at 3:02 PM ^
A bowl win puts us at 7-6, allowing Hoke apologists to claim that "he's stopped the slide. It's all better going forward. If we change coaches now there will be transition costs."
November 28th, 2014 at 1:11 AM ^
be OSU's decisive victory over Michigan. Urbs needs to dominate this game to have a chance to pass TCU after their big win at Texas.
Michigan loses handily, that's it. The 'evaluation' will happen over the next few weeks and Hoke will be let go some time after Christmas, most likely around the time the 49ers wrap up their season. LEaving Hoke in place until the NFL season ends, will keepo the media off Harbaugh's back about the job and that simply enhances the acceptance of the job by Harbaugh.
Hackett needs to handle this smoothly and the only way to do this is to let the 49ers do what they are going to do with Harbaugh first.
Harbaugh will be announced as the next coach at Michigan just after the New Year. If he doesn't really want it, Les Miles will be announced as the next head coach shortly after New Years.
Michigan has to announce a big name coach as their choice or Season Tickets will take another big dip and the suites go unsold and revenue takes to big of a hit. Hackett and his successor cannot allow that to happen.
A new AD will be announced after the CoFoPo has ended. Jeff Long will be announced as the permanent AD sometime in January.
November 28th, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
FWIW I think you are dead on the money in all your predictions - that is exactly what I believe will happen as well, and in the order they occur.
And boy do I sure hope that happens. While it absolutely kills me to think that getting curbstomped by OSU would be somehow good for Michigan I am scared to fucking death that if we somehow win Hackett could be convinced by all the ex-players that Hoke is just about to turn things around and they give him another year.
November 28th, 2014 at 1:25 AM ^
I think we put up a decent fight in the first half due to the emotion of the game, and then a few Gardner turnovers and big OSU plays lead to us getting taken to the slaughterhouse in the second half. We lose by 3 TDs at least, and Hoke tells us one last time about how we just didn't execute.
All of us on the board are hitting refresh every 5 minutes waiting for an official "Hoke has been fired" thread, which will take longer to materialize than we all want. I'm thinking Tuesday-Wednesday, or maybe even well into December. Because why wouldn't we do that?
I'd give anything to hear that Hoke is fired Monday, Harbaugh is stepping down effective immediately, and we somehow inexplicably have ourselves our new coach come next week. Recruiting is back in full force, and everything's coming up Millhouse.
Let me dream, okay?
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November 28th, 2014 at 1:33 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 1:41 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 5:37 PM ^
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November 28th, 2014 at 4:29 AM ^
Hoke will either be gone early next week or "after a lengthy evaluation period" that coincidently lasts through Jan 1, 2015. Gut says next week though. Forget retaining him through a banquet - thats unfair to him if that is the only reason you keep him for another 2 weeks to hang in the wind. It's either 4 days or 40 days.
November 28th, 2014 at 9:54 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 4:56 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 7:15 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 9:52 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 7:34 AM ^
If we lose tomorrow then Hoke is fired in short order.
If we WIN, then it gets a little dicey. It seems like it would be pretty hard to fire Hoke just after Michigan's biggest upset win since 1969. Make no mistake, Hoke is a nice guy and the players love him. I would fully expect them to carry Hoke off the field.
I'm saying if we win, the only way Hoke gets fired is if we have signed contract in hand with one of the Harbaugh Brothers.
November 28th, 2014 at 8:07 AM ^
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November 28th, 2014 at 11:33 AM ^
Can you imagine the questions our targets get over the next month if Hoke is fired on Monday.
If it is strung out, I would assume that we have a behind the scenes Yes in our pocket with a "but we have to wait until X day"
If Hoke is fired on Monday, then that may mean that we have already gotten No's from our main targets.
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November 28th, 2014 at 1:12 PM ^
100% agreed. I think if we fire Hoke on Monday, it significantly lowers our chances of getting our main targets compared to if he is let go say, Jan 1st.
November 28th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 8:28 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 8:34 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 9:24 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 9:28 AM ^
Then we read Ace's summary of the slaughter.
Then we read the Sunday diary recaps of the games - not sure how those guys keep doing it.
Then we keep checking this site for news, which does not come, and get back to our normal work lives.
November 28th, 2014 at 9:57 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 10:01 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 12:59 PM ^
After he's told he's going to be fired he "resigns" to save some face and have a more graceful exit. They would workout whatever buyout he gets beforehand. Not saying that's going to happen but it's one scenario.
November 28th, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^
Who gets canned 1st? Hoke or Harbaugh?
November 28th, 2014 at 11:07 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
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November 28th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 4:50 PM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 1:00 PM ^
When I try to envision an uplifting victory on Saturday, all I can summon is the execution scene in Braveheart. Urban Meyer will be out to make a huge statement. It will feel like a long slow torture for us to watch and our inconsistent, unorganized team to play. And there will be much clapping.
While I think Hoke could be gone as early as next week, I think and actually hope that Hackett has the patience to wait out the process of the right replacement becoming free. A lot of the damage has been done and screwing up another hire because of a poorly managed, overly eager search is not what we need. I'd rather wait until January if that's what it takes to get Harbaugh or one of the very few reasonable facsimiles.
November 28th, 2014 at 1:15 PM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
Unless Harbaugh is fired before the NFL regular season ends, I see retaining Hoke until Jan 1st as giving us the best chances of landing him. Last thing we need is the media hammering Harbaugh over the next few weeks if Hoke is let go after the OSU game. I still have horrifying Herbstreit flashbacks from 2007.
November 28th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^
and that's why I hope they're very deliberate about how all of this is handled. In your scenario, I can almost see Hoke being a big enough man (and a small enough ego) to play along knowing what would be coming once they were free to speak openly with Harbaugh. I know Hoke wants to stay, but the way he loves this place I can't see him being anything but gracious in the manner of his leaving.
November 28th, 2014 at 1:33 PM ^
42-17 OSU tomorrow;
Hoke firing announcement Monday.
November 28th, 2014 at 2:23 PM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^
cant Get Rid Of It-- comes to me In My Sleep . . .
Haunted-- like from 'Nam, or something . . .
November 28th, 2014 at 5:23 PM ^
Hoke will be retained until the 49ers are eliminated from the playoffs. Harbaugh will then gauge the market and determine which of the following will happen.
1. SF fires Harbaugh outright, and Harbaugh will be free to negotiate with any NFL team without SF getting compensation. Look for Oakland, Chicago, and potentially one of the New York teams to bid for his services then. Michigan will not be considered at that point.
2. SF tells Harbaugh he will be kept for another year. At this point, NFL teams will have to give up draft picks or players to hire Harbaugh, and the 49ers control Harbaugh's destination. For example, Oakland may be willing to trade Charles Woodson and 2 1st rounders to SF, but SF may not want Harbaugh to hang around the Bay. Michigan becomes a short term destination then, but so will Stanford and other colleges.
3. SF tells Harbaugh to negotiate his own exit, but keeps the rights to demand compensation. Since Harbaugh will probably demand personnel control at this new job, he can influence future boss on what compensation he should give up. Some hungry NFL owner may deal the farm to SF, but will Harbaugh want to spend his energy rebuilding? Michigan is attractive in that scenario, but probably not as attractive as Oakland.
I am convinced that Scenario #2 will happen as SF probably wants to extract the most compensation from Jim, and they probably don't want the possibility of Harbaugh pitting one NFL team against another. Michigan has a shot, but they have to be shrewd about their initial offer (cannot be a lowball salary), and it will make sense to put a "coach in waiting" clause in the contract.
If Harbaugh chooses the NFL, Les Miles will be the next Michigan coach. Miles will then hire a young-ish DC to be groomed as the coach in waiting.
November 28th, 2014 at 5:55 PM ^
What is to stop Harbaugh from saying, "O.K. I'll see ya in training camp then, just keep sending the paychecks." ?
November 28th, 2014 at 10:33 PM ^