Predicting Wins/Loses
So this internet thing has really become quite boring in the last month or 2 if you are a Michigan Football fan. Our recruiting has been for all practical purposes wrapped up for a while so let us turn our attention to the actual 2012 football season.
Almost every pundant/talking head thinks that we really lucked out last year with our record. most think a drop is almost certain what do you think? In a sentence or two give the reason why we win or lose.
Schedule -
- Sept. 1, Alabama (Dallas)
- Sept. 8, Air Force
- Sept. 15, Massachusetts
- Sept. 22, @ Notre Dame
- Sept. 29 Wifeday/apple picking in my household!
- Oct. 6, @ Purdue
- Oct. 13, Illinois
- Oct. 20, Michigan State
- Oct. 27, @ Nebraska
- Nov. 3, @ Minnesota
- Nov. 10, Northwestern
- Nov. 17, Iowa
- Nov. 24, @ Ohio State
Alabama - LOSE - They have a great offensive line returning, we have at best an unproven D-line that I think will be much better as the season progesses baring injury. Alabama will be able to run the ball. For us to have a chance Denard needs to play one of the best games of his career both running and passing.
Air Force - WIN - Closer than we may think but yes we win.
Massachusetts - WIN.
Notre Dame - WIN - They have a good front 7 but no back 4 and Denard takes advantage. After 3 games our Defensive line shows improvement against a quality opponent. Also Notre Dame is a little drained after a big overtime win the week before in East Lansing!
Purdue - WIN - This game is scary to me. Dont know why but we still win . . . closer than expected though.
Illinois - WIN - Illinois is going to a brand new system under a brand new coach. Illinois will be coming off a beatdown the week before at Wisconsin, and a lose to Penn State the week previous to Wiscy. Dont worry though . . . Indiana is up next.
Michigan State - Win - The ling nightmare is over and Little Brother is put into place. I think that if this game was at East Lansing we lose a close one. That be ing said MSU has a great Defense but Andrew Maxwell struggles as our defense takes another step up and Denard plays very well. This is the big turn for our Defensive line as they really play well and the back 7 shine as well. Pipkins in at starter after this game.
Nebraska - LOSE - So between this and MSU I think we lose one. Lincoln is a tough place to play and I'm sick of Dantonio so Nebraska it is.
Minnesota - WIN - They are better than last year but not ready to compete.
Northwestern - WIN - Alot like last years game but we have a running game this time. They make some plays on the offensive side of the ball but cant defend us.
Iowa - WIN - I kind of think that the lack of recruiting well, even by their standards, catches up with them this year. Their QB is the real deal but they dont have a ton after that.
Ohio State - WIN - This one is really a push for me. WE will be ready but this is their everything as they cant go bowling. Their Defense will be good and I think Braxton Miller is going to look like Denard did his Freshman year. They go as Braxton goes. I hate them so I say we win.
Yup, 10-2 is what I have which would put us in the BIG TEN title game against Wiscy.
Bowling, I have no idea???
Just something to talk about that has to do less with Penn State and more with football. What are your thoughts on our record this season?
Losses to Alabama and one of ND or Ohio Bobcats. Beats Wiscy in the B1G Title Game. Then wins over USC or Oregon in the Rose Bowl by a field goal (oo-hoo!).
losses to Bama and OHIO (pains me to say that). We beat the Badgers in Indy. Then we beat Oregon in the Rose (I feel like a slappy after the last one). USC will be in the NCG.
Regular season 9-3 (7-1, 5-0). Losses to Bama, ND, and Ohio (barf). Win the Bo Division and the Big Ten Championship, and lose the Rose Bowl thus ending the year at 10-4.
The OL should be OK, center is of concern; Denard, Fitz, RR and JG will generate pts. The DL is the real Q. Can BWC, PeeWee and the DL generate enough pressures? The back 7 seems to be stout; pressure and contain.
Anywhere between 10-2 and 8-4, plenty of toss up games that include ND, MSU, Nebraska, and OSU.
Ill try to be as Unbiased as possible, hopefully i won't get mobbed :)
Alabama - LOSE - This is just too much to overcome. I do believe you will lose by 14+
Air Force - WIN - Close until you pull it out in the 4th quarter.
Massachusetts - WIN. I don't need to say anything
Notre Dame - WIN - Do they even have a QB?
Purdue - WIN - Trap game. Purdue may actually be in Indy this year. I think you win but it's close
Illinois - WIN - Eh.
Michigan State - LOSE - Yea you guys probably won't agree with me, but I think by now Maxwell will have his confidence built up to be servicable at LEAST. I think we'll pound the ball on you which isn't good considering your depth and questions on the D-line. We came off a bye last year, and this year we come off @Indiana, which is pretty much the same thing.
Nebraska - LOSE - Nebraska is a tough team to beat on the road, let alone at night. They are 31-5 all time under the lights at memorial stadium, and I don't see you giving them their 6th loss the week after the MSU game.
Minnesota - WIN - Could be dangerously close, or could be a blowout. Marqueis Gray can play.
Northwestern - WIN - I love Kain Colter and Northwestern but I don't see them walking out of the Big House with a W.
Iowa - WIN - They have arguably the best Passer in the B1G, but once again, i don't see them walking out of the Big House in this one.
Ohio State - WIN - This is a tossup for me. I know its their bowl game and blah blah but I honestly do not believe that they will be good, at least not this year. I may be completely wrong though and they're good.
That's 9-3/8-4 with OSU as a tossup. not a bad season with such a tough schedule, especially if you get the 9 wins probably good enough for the Capital One Bowl.
huh?
There's something special about a coach's 2nd year at the helm (or sometimes 3rd, in Lloyd's case). For whatever reason, there is a history of success in major college football recently (perhaps the new system is installed, but enthusiasm hasn't worn off yet--I don't know). Lots of returning starters, including the most electrifying QB in college football today; A full season + 2 offseasons of Hoke/Mattison/Borges teaching. I realize it's one of the toughest schedules in recent memory, but somehow, I believe:
11-1 with a very close opening loss to Alabama in Dallas. U-M has a good enough showing to keep them well in the hunt, and after winning the B1G Championship Game, they end up in the top 2 or 3, hopefully earning a trip to the National Championship Game.
Crazy? Maybe.
Optimistic? Definitely.
Possible? Absolutely.
These are my take on the % chances of M winning:
Alabama - 20%
Air Force - 100%
UMass - 100%
ND - 45%
Purdue - 95%
Illinois - 95%
MSU - 70%
Nebraska - 60%
Minny - 100%
Northwestern - 85%
Iowa - 80%
Ohio - 40%
Expected value, 8.9 wins rounded up to 9.
I think we are in the range at worst 8-4 to at best 10-2. I think Bama is a loss, along with Nebraska, and possibly ND. I think that would still most likely put us in the B1G championship game.
On a side note, I was wondering if anyone knew any information on tickets for this year. I have never been to an actual game in AA and would really like to go to big games especially MSU. I called up to ticket office and keep getting different dates on when I can buy the 4 game pack of tickets, because that is the only sure fire way of getting a ticket for the MSU game, besides spending 250 for one seat on stubhub. I also know that you get MSU, UMASS, and then two others of your choice. If anyone could help me get an exact price and an exact date for ticket sales that would be really appreciated.
8-4 or 9-3. But we will be a better overall team than last year. Bama is a great team, and the oversigning will continue to help them replace departed players. I think we lose to them. Then we lose 2/3 of ND, MSU, Nebraska, and OSU. Anything can happen in South Bend and it seems like we usually botch that game when we're the favorite there. MSU is still very tough and will have a good defense again. Lincoln is a tough place to play and I'm sure the Huskers will be motivated to get revenge for their embarassment last year. OSU is still the most talented team in the conference and it'll be in Columbus.
I'd have to guess 10-2/9-3. I hate to break-up the party a bit, but we really weren't that good last year. We were fortunate to beat ND, lost to a very average Iowa team, and were fortunate again to beat VaTech. Hoke/Mattison/Borges magic happened, but we could easily have lost 4 games last year, even with our favorable schedule and glut of home games.
That said, we should be a year better with the new coaching. Losses to both lines hurt badly though...so I think among 'Bama, ND, MSU, Nebraska, and ohio, there are probably 2-3 losses, and that's mostly because 4 of those games are away from the Big House. I think we lose to 'Bama, and maybe split the other four, but those are all toss-ups.
We could absolutely survive with one or two losses, and win the B1G. But with our schedule, and with the relative lack of talent on our team (let's face it...RR's guys really aren't that good), we'd have to be VERY fortunate to go undefeated.
Did I say we had no talent? Did I say Denard and Lewan weren't talented?
My point is--and the statistical analysis done on the board page bears this out--that our talent level and recruiting dropped off a bit under RR, and we haven't fixed that yet. We used to have consistent first round NFL picks...where has that gone?
Also, I was pointing specifically to the lines. Yes we have Lewan, but there isn't a star at any other position on either line, and probably not even an all-B1G player anywhere else on the lines.
Denard, Lewan, and Fitz are all legitimate stars, but no one else you named is. There's a photo of an offensive huddle from the 90's where every single player in the picture played in the NFL. Try to tell me we're even close to that with this year's group.
We have some good players, and we have some pretty okay players. And we really lack depth, especially on the lines. Do we suck? No. But we're not Alabama, USC, or even ohio in terms of talent, and we need to get back to that.
/sorryforbeingrealistic
11-2. Loses to ND and Neb.
Obviously, that COULD happen. But you're basically assuming the same record as last year with a tougher schedule and unproven replacements at a number of key positions, including center, WR, TE, and almost the whole defensive line.
You're also assuming no stumbles in the games where M should be favored. Historically, most teams have an unexpected whiff somewhere along the way.
My father has told me for years that I can't predict with any accuracy what I will wear tomorrow. I think he is right and for evidence present my last four predictions for Michigan footbaw. For four consecutive years I have predicted an 8-4 regular season record. I wrongly thought that RichRod offense scheme would be enough to overcome the transition his first season and a mediocre record, by UM standards, of 8-4 would be achieved. In RichRod's second season I predicted a record of 8-4, because come on Michigan doesn't have two losing seasons in a row. In his third season I predicted 8-4 because he had to rebound right? In Hoke's first season at the helm, my thought was that he could get the team to 8-4 (I was shellshocked and thougth this might be overly optimistic).
This year I believe UM loses only to Alabama (overmatched by a little) and Notre Dame (just feels like time we lose to them after Gallon and Tate type miracles the last several years). I think UM runs the table in B1G conference play. After it is discovered that Wisconsin has been creating offensive linemen in lab just north of Green Bay, the Badgers are ineligible for post-season play for three years. Thus, a 10-2 UM faces off with a 7-5 Purdue team in the conference championship game and wins. We lose the Rose Bowl to USC thus restoring the great tradition of playing in and losing that game. The final 2012 record stands at 11-3.