Peyton Manning Breaking Down Tom Brady's AFC Championship Performance
I would highly recommend everyone who has paid close attention (and criticized) to the Michigan offense to watch this break down of the Patriot's plays in the AFC championship game by Peyton Manning. I was pretty surprised at the similarities between the Patriot offense and the Michigan offense.
Hope you guys enjoy on this snow day. Someone please embed.
January 30th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
I was pretty surprised at the similarities between the Patriot offense and the Michigan offense.
I'm not surprised. It's well known that Bill Belichick loves the three-pointer and that Tom Brady is a master of the pick-and-roll. People love Gronk for his size, but his hands are great, catching dishes from Brady for quick lay-ups.
They're gonna need Edelman and Michel to hit their threes if they want to beat the Rams, though.
January 30th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
If you haven't checked out the link Stephen please do so. I know you will enjoy it.
Happy Wednesday to you.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
I hope to when I have time. 25 minutes is a bit much while I'm working, though.
January 30th, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
the key is rotation and ball movement. curious if they'll try a double low-post with teske and one of the new (skinny) bigs.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^
Does the ball move better when it is deflated???
/asking for a commissioner
January 30th, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
Fuck the commish. Brady should've been MVP that year
January 30th, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
Cool. I wish Michigan Football won championships with the offense like the Patriots. Or at least could beat their rival more than once every 20 something years.
January 30th, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
Similar? Theirs seems to work.
#confused
January 30th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
One staunch difference: the Patriots are vying for the title of "Best football team on Earth".
January 30th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
After the AFC Championship, many of the Chiefs defenders were commenting on the devastating body blows from Edelman, White, and Michel that finally wore them down in the 4th quarter and OT.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^
Yeah, and KC fired their D. Coordinator within days.
Good OP, I enjoyed it. Peyton would be a good color analyst if he ever wanted to.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
Nope- he's too busy writing jingles for Nationwide Insurance commercials.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
Nope- he's too busy writing jingles for Nationwide Insurance commercials. Double click = Double post.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
At least these days he's doing something different from putting his balls in someone's face then getting them fired.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:09 PM ^
Except Peyton's an asshole.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:21 PM ^
As someone whose father and grandfather went to Michigan, who grew up hearing about the glories of Tom Harmon, I can tell you that historically Michigan probably holds about as much right to that title as any university. And that goes back about 140 years longer than the Pats have been a thing. History, and a whole lot of institutional advantages, remain firmly on Michigan's side.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:30 PM ^
Michigan is better than the Patriots? The Patriots would win 100-0 if they played Michigan.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^
Maybe if they played this year, but I would suggest that if the '72 teams squared off, Michigan would have stood a good chance of winning.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
Probably a lot of those guys are out of shape or even deceased by now, though.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:11 PM ^
We should have an even larger advantage then!
January 30th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
Unfortunately UM has been more like the Jets and not the Pats.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:05 PM ^
Good example of what Michigan wants to be but I wonder if it's possible in college. The Patriots offense relies on efficiency and consistency. Marching the ball down the field with short runs and passes and occasionally mixing in a counter or deep play.
But that only works when you can reliably count on your QB to make the easy throws and the receivers to catch those passes at a high rate as well. A 5 yard hitch play is just as good as a 4 yard run play if you complete it 4/5 times. It's similar to the OL where going from each player making 90% to 95%(18/20 to 19/20) of their blocks increases the number of plays with 5 good blocks from 59% to 77%.
But can you get enough receivers with hands like Jason Avant to do that in college? Can you recruit and coach up QBs to hit those passes with mechanical accuracy like Brady? Or are you better off with a scheme that forces defenses to spread out and account for every player on the field and make lots of solo tackles.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
In college, this...
" Or are you better off with a scheme that forces defenses to spread out and account for every player on the field and make lots of solo tackles."
Definitely this.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
Charlie "schematic advantage" Weis says hi!
January 30th, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
I don’t think the offense just needs to be spread. Plenty of junk spread offenses. What I want to see next year is two things: 1. Consistently take what the defense gives and don’t try to impose your will. 2. Take more advantage of the middle of the field, especially if it continues to be a PA focused passing attack.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
I think the basic premise that this is what Michigan wants to do is correct. Where it fails for Michigan isn't that they lack the precision and consistency but that they come in with a decision already made about how they want the game plan to go. The Patriots are far more game plan elastic and willing to take the easy chunks that the defense gives them. You see this in some of the complaints that people have--throw more slants, hit the receivers quickly in off coverage. The Patriots also use a lot more motion to create or reveal good match ups for themselves, especially with their RBs. If Michigan came out with Mason/Evans/1 or 2 TE and utilized motion to move LBs out of the box and into man coverage against Evans or one of the more catchy tight ends you'd be running an offense more akin to the Pats'. It can be difficult for a defense to make on the fly adjustments to closing down that easy stuff which is when you can take your more aggressive chances and maybe see some major busts.
Also, this is what the Patriots do this year because their receivers aren't the best and they have very well-rounded RBs that don't tip run/pass. If they had a current Moss/Welker combo they would have a very different scheme.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^
Reports after the season indicated that Michigan was flexible with their plans and taking what the defense gives, but once the game started they retreated back into their comfort zone of running the ball and play action. There were plays to get the ball to Evans in space or throw short passes against off coverage, but after running them once or twice Michigan rarely went back to them.
Over the last decade the slot and TE offense with separate receiving and running RBs has been the norm. The offenses with a Moss or Gordon are the exception, and I'd consider Edelmen a Welker replacement.
January 31st, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
That propensity to go back to their comfort zone could (hopefully) be ameliorated with more faith in the QB and giving him more freedom to check to those quick throws when they're there based on the presnap look. Things like motion and personnel usage can only be adjusted at the coaching level so hopefully the changes they made on that side of the ball address that.
That propensity for the slot/TE offense is (IMO) more based on Gronk than it is anything else. He's a true dual-threat in terms of catching and blocking which lets them stay in base personnel and adapt based on how the defense chooses to defend him and being able to motion an RB out wide does the same thing. If they bring in an LB they pass more, extra DB run more. You also see a huge shift in run/pass percentage when the RB talent isn't there. In 2015 when they had Bolden/Blount/limited Lewis/unestablished White they were a heavy pass team because none of those guys were able to do both aspects effectively. Once White was more rounded and Lewis was recovered they were able to go back to a far more balanced split.
Regardless, I think their ability to adapt to their personnel is more important to their success than the increased efficacy of their players. They base their personnel on market efficiencies that aren't a concern in college. Once stricter PI rules were enforced they changed to a quick passing game, slot receivers have been largely undervalued for a long time, they were one of the early adopters of multiple cheaper backs, they have a FB again now that defenses have gotten smaller over time.They also value versatility more than most teams do which I think you see Michigan/Harbaugh displaying with his affinity for TEs. That versatility makes the defense stay honest and show their hand a little more which plays right into their goal of taking what's offered.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:17 PM ^
I think being too similar to a pro scheme that requires... you know "pros"... the greatest NFL QB of all time... not college kids... to execute it is everyone's problem with Michigan's offense.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^
Maybe, but you could say the same thing about the defenses they're facing. The Patriots are playing a "pro style" offense with pros, and the Chiefs/Rams/whoever are playing defense with pros. College players are playing against college players, too.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
This isn't a very good take. The complexity (and resultant difficulty in execution) of the offensive playbook doesn't depend on the level of opposing player. A decent college QB isn't going to make reads like Brady, even if the college QB is facing a squad of high school players. Brady simply has magnitudes more time on task.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:12 PM ^
While I'm sure time on task makes a difference I believe some of that is also innate skill. No amount of time on task would allow JOK to do that and Haskins was pretty adepts at his first college snaps. So, it also takes a bit of ability as well. The real question is does Shea have enough of it.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
Especially so given graduating high school players don't learn in a pro scheme so the time needed to build those skills could be more than their college career. That is why Gattis will be an immediate jump start to the offense. Getting excited to see how this plays out in the Spring Game.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^
I agree. There's a reason why other teams light it up with true and RS freshman and Michigan doesn't. I'm very hopeful Gattis cuts out all the extra shit and gets everyone up to playing speed FAST.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
Maybe it's because I don't know enough to understand, but I found those Peyton Manning breakdowns to be dumb, so I stopped watching them. Also, he's such a paid shill, I prefer not to patronize him.
TLDR: Thanks for the tip, but won't click.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
Dude those throws were ridiculous. I think we're asking too much of our QBs if they need to make those throws to run this offense. Also they ran a few slants which MI is allergic to.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:57 PM ^
Why aren't you talking like a dumb Koala?
January 30th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^
Because he's a smart koala? I dunno
January 30th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
Maybe if we had short, possession type WRs who ran routes shorter than 20 yards we could be the Patriots.
Or maybe if we just had a passing coordinator who knew what he was doing. And a HC who recognized that deficiency.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
That last sentence burns so hot people in Chicago are clamoring to get close to it....
January 30th, 2019 at 1:41 PM ^
Several of the Patriots scoring drives were perfectly synchronized intricate things of beauty, especially the first and last drives.
They were masterful symphonies, executed by historically great, deeply experienced pro players.
There were so many individual things that had to be executed inch-perfectly that were. Failure on any one of them - especially those multiple 3rd and ten's in the last drive - would have torpedoed the whole effort.
To expect college kids that change every 2 or 3 years to be able to do that is foolishly naive.
The Patriots offense is not a good offense for college. Not even close.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^
is it naive to also point out that Tom Brady has been in the system for almost two decades and a number of consecutive years with the same OC and receivers?
Here's how I see it, Blue Angels make coordinated acrobatic flying of jets look so effortless, they're NE. We are Delta Airlines, very good at what we do (not the best overall), innovative sometimes even a bit gimicky (see tree climbing, Signing of Stars, etc. man that feels like ages ago) but also looking to get to the top. But to get to Blue Angels territory... not appropriate for the planes we have nor the routes we run.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
Not a good analogy. Blue Angle pilots are only with the squadron for two years - the standard military rotation. Some get a second rotation, but not all. They don’t get very long to learn their shit...
January 30th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
They may run some similar concepts and attack in similar ways but as with everything in footballs it’s personnel, play calling, and execution that matters.
January 30th, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
There is one very important, gigantic difference between the Pats offense and Michigan's offense. The Patriots can actually execute the offense.
Also, the Pats don't believe using RBs in the passing game is illegal. James White had more receiving yards in the Pats first four games than Evans and Higdon combined for all season.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:17 PM ^
If only we had Tom Brady to run our offense.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:21 PM ^
Structural or philosophical similarities are all well and good, but there is a distinct lack of similarity in the results. It works for them, it does not for us. Perhaps it is actually an indictment that we have been bullheaded enough to believe that we can effectively run the same offense that a professional team featuring the G.O.A.T. quarterback runs. Seems similar to what happened to Phil Jackson when he tried to run the triangle with Carmelo & Derrick Rose instead of MJ & Scottie or Shaq & Kobe.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:32 PM ^
I liked the video and therefore do not wish this comment to appear critical of the OP.
In conception, there may be similarities between the 2018 Michigan offense and the Patriots offense. Certainly, the focus on efficiency potentially over explosiveness is a similarity.
However, in game planning and play calling there is a very big difference. In the AFCC game, the Patriots run/pass ratio was 51/49%. Which is what I would call "balanced offense." Over the course of the season, their ratio was actually 46/54%. So, they passed a little more than they ran but still balanced.
The 2018 Michigan offense was VERY different. Michigans run/pass ratio over the season was 61/39%. Which is not what I would call "balanced offense"--unlike many defenders of the 2018 offense. And I did a quick analysis of the Wisconsin, OSU, and MSU games and the run/pass ratio of those 3 games combined was in line with the season ratio. So, that is not distorted by beating up on bad teams and running excessively to kill the clock.
So, as I said previously, in conception and prioritizing efficiency, the offenses are similar but in play calling they are VERY different. Additionally, if the run is not working well enough to get first downs (which happened a lot to Michigan in 2018) that put even more emphasis on those few passing plays to move the chains rather than the Patriots who mix it up. Which emphasizes the necessity of every player to make the correct read and execute perfectly on those plays. Emphasizing every dropped pass by the 3rd TE or missed block by the OL.
The Patriots on the other hand give themselves a lot of chances to succeed by giving every play the best chance at success. Rather than wasting downs looking for a later payoff.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
NE throws way more to the backs than we do—nearly 3 times as much based on catches. It’s a (maybe the) central component of their game.
Mich hasn’t really sorted out how to go about that yet, which you can tell not only by the lack of volume but also their middling success at it.
January 30th, 2019 at 2:38 PM ^
Unbelievable how good he is (Brady). He’s had a great supporting cast over the years but Manning’s break down of each play shows not only what a great athlete Brady is but also how smart he is. Just an amazing QB. Definitely the G.O.A.T.
I do not however see a lot of similarities. Brady made a lot of changes at the line of scrimmage after seeing defense line up and NE used ALL their receivers on every play - even those who were not going to be the recipient of the pass. Even used RB from time to time.
Along with that, not sure there’s ever been a QB with a quicker release. If you’re a linebacker or safety, Brady can give you that little juke to the left, you lean just a touch to go with it and the next thing you know the ball just flew by your right. He’s phenomenal.