Our most feasible chance to get to Indy in 2020?
Let's just say that winning in Columbus in 2020 seems exceedingly unlikely as things currently stand. Even if OSU takes a step back, it's on the road. And, without winning there, it's almost impossible to see OSU losing twice (they have a relatively easy Big Ten schedule in terms of West crossovers and road games) so without a win in the Shoe there is one option that frankly might be the most plausible:
- Michigan finishes 8-1 with a loss @OSU
- OSU finishes 8-1 with a loss in the White Out at PSU
- PSU finishes 8-1 with a loss in The Big House
At this point, it would come down to whoever has the best overall record of our west opponents. The 2020 opponents for each team are:
- Michigan: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue
- PSU: Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern
- OSU: Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois
Obviously a lot can change, but we seemingly would be most likely to have, perhaps by a significant margin, the best group of West teams with the top two finishers this year on the schedule. I don't think Scott Frost is fixing that mess anytime soon, Minnesota seems ascendant, Wisconsin isn't going anywhere, Iowa has the hardest schedule in the West (@OSU, @PSU, @Minnesota, vs. MSU), and I like a fully healthy Purdue (terrible injuries this year) under Brohm over the programs in the state of Illinois.
The second part that makes this likely, if we can win out, is that PSU's non Michigan/OSU games are relatively favorable so it doesn't seem likely they'd lose a second game if they beat OSU. They get Iowa and MSU in Happy Valley. Besides Ann Arbor, their toughest conference road game is...Bloomington or Lincoln (they also go to Rutgers).
It's sad that our best chance to get by OSU is for somebody else to do it for us...but it honestly probably is, for 2020 at least. Michigan usually fares well against the Nittany Lions at home and they get that occasional White Out magic against the Buckeyes.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
I appreciate the optimism but I would give it a month or two before we start analyzing the 2020 season.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
Fair enough! My main point was that, that looking at the schedules, we seem to have a decided advantage in the possible tiebreaker, whereas usually it's much murkier as to who would benefit.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
You can't let fate or someone else to help your cause. Simply put, control your own destiny by winning, like Ohio State does. Hate to say it!
December 1st, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
Pretty much this, but the talent gap appears to be out of control. The post is asking about the most likely scenario, and I don't think us beating OSU is the most likely scenario.
Best bet is for PSU to beat them during the white out...however, we would still need OSU to have two loses, and then there's the risk of PSU sneaking in ahead of us.
What we really need is some sort of game changing injury, suspension, coaching departure, or whatever.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
Relevant thread:
Yeah, Michigan’s currently 7th in 5-year SP+ — he’s done an outstanding job. And the rival to which UM will always compare itself is on a historic run of awesomeness at the moment.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 30, 2019
Trying to come up with the best historic examples of “coach obviously doing a good job, but main rival is untouchably awesome” in CFB.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 30, 2019
Osborne losing to OU every year from 1973-81, maybe?https://t.co/QLk4NG1HtA
December 1st, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
Upvoted.
The reactionary BPONE drunk elements of the fanbase had to STFU after Michigan rolled ND and Sparty. They are out in droves today (along with their cohort of t[tm] OSU trolls). If you disagree with this reactionary approach, the need to fire Don Brown immediately, or Harbaugh you get immediately negged or shouted down. Those are legit stats (and clearly nobody posting remembers fcuking 60 plus points to Illinois under previous regimes. It’s not X’s and O’s It’s Jimmy’s and Joe’s.
FWIW, who among us isn’t frustrated it Don Brown was Fcuking recruited by t[tm]OSU just last year. Why?
December 1st, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
I'm not sold that OSU is going to maintain this juggernaut status forever under Day. They lose a ton of starters this year, it will be interesting to see what happens, especially on defense.
But whatever. I thought they were finished after tatgate and they had Adam Sandler as their coach.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
I’m 100% sold that Day will keep them playing at an elite level.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
If he keeps them at this level he will be an NFL coach, if he wants it
December 1st, 2019 at 2:16 PM ^
NFL teams are gonna start coming for him this offseason. We'll see.
Naturally if he gets poached, OSU will probably get Urban Meyer back because that program has a deal with the devil and nothing substantially bad ever happens to them anymore
December 1st, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
They lose a ton of starters but have a full complement of high 4 and 5 stars waiting for their shot - just think that Petit-Freire was the #1 tackle in the country and has barely sniffed the field . That plus OSU development is going to keep them in the top 5 for the time being.
We went for bottom half of B1G dumpster fire to top-15ish under early Harbaugh and up to top-10ish the last two years. So we still have a couple of levels to get to OSU. Michigan just has to keep fighting, clawing and improving day to day, year to year.
A huge, game-changing development will be NIL rights for the players. The Michigan money cannon will blast us up a level by allowing us to “be competitive” with more of the top 50 recruits.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^
I'm very curious to see what the value of NIL rights for a top player at Michigan is, and whether that is competitive with the value of attending OSU. I think it goes without saying that the program should place great emphasis on maximizing the value - gotta be more valuable than OSU, which could be hard to do. Could be the game changer we need.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
OSU will have an insane offensive line next season and Fields will have a minimum of 3 5 star targets to throw to. They’ll be starting three 5 stars in the D Line too.
Next year’s OSU on paper will be more talented than this years.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
They dump half their team to the NFL every year and it never matters.
They have a backlog of NFL talent ready to replace them.
It has been this way since Urban Meyer.
Waiting out their talent is a fools game, somebody you never heard of will step in and seamlessly replace the guy that left.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Have you looked at OSU’s recruiting class? They have four elite WRs coming in and UM has one 5’7” CB recruit who will be asked to defend them.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
Move to the B1G West. We're supposedly champions of the west or something something.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
Oh yay! We can lose to Ohio State every year and still make the BIG Championship Game! Why haven’t we thought of this before?
December 1st, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
Please stop. We get embarrassed the last Saturday of every November. Schedule for next year doesn’t even have us close to Indy. Next year is another wash. We have a lot leaving. 2021 tho!
December 1st, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
Wait Until Next Year! comes earlier every year.
Dibs on Wait Until 2022!
December 1st, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
I wouldn't count on it. How often has Michigan reached the OSU game unbeaten? I tell you how often. Twice in over 40 years. 1997 and 2006. Bo didn't really accomplish it after the early 70s.
It's exceedingly unlikely. At Minny could be tricky, between Wisconsin, PSU and MSU you're almost always finding an L somewhere too. I think 1 or 2 losses prior to Columbus are almost a given.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
I do have to qualify that - Michigan has entered the OSU game unbeaten in Big Ten play more often than I originally thought: 2018, 2006, 2004, 1998, 1997, 1992, 1991, 1989, 1988, 1982, 1980 in the last 40 years. So 11 times in 40 years.
I will actually take it back. It's still not likely, but it's possible. I was being too negative with my initial reaction given the overall mood.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
2007 too. Not that it mattered.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
Nope. Got roughed up at Wisconsin the week before the game. Honestly 2007 was a pretty bad season all around.
December 1st, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
I disagree.
We could very well lose @ Washington but that doesn’t matter for Indy.
We have owned Wisconsin and PSU in Ann Arbor under Harbaugh (and frankly for much longer in the case of the Nittany Lions). Our road schedule minus OSU is easy. We aren’t losing @Rutgers or home to IU/Purdue. @Minnesota will be tricky but we literally haven’t lost in Minneapolis since the 1970s and we have a HUGE talent advantage in that game. Fleck had a good year but Wisconsin rolled them on their own field, their schedule was Charmin soft and they lost to an Iowa team we beat. It’s a tossup at worst. East Lansing could be hazardous as always but that’s the one hostile road site Harbaugh regularly wins in and Spartans on paper should be even worse next year than the abysmal version this year.
I’m not saying it’s super likely or a lock or anything, but it’s certainly possible, more than in most years given the schedule and state of MSU. And we’re well positioned for a tiebreaker given our West opponents. It seems likelier than winning in Columbus. That’s all.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
Hell freezes over
December 1st, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
To get to Indy, UM needs The Game to resemble yesterday's Iron Bowl...
* Alabama playing a backup QB
* Alabama calls a RB flare pass on 1st & Goal from the 1, only for the ball to hit the RB in the back of the head, bounce directly to an Auburn defender, and result in a 100-yard pick six
* Refs inexplicably gift Auburn a FG attempt (which they hit) at the end of the first half
* Alabama doinks a potential game-tying FG with 2:00 left
* Alabama confusedly has 12 men on the field after forcing Auburn into a 3 & out with 1:00-ish left, negating them a chance to tie/win in regulation
Basically, UM needs to play near-perfect football while OSU simultaneously has their bi-annual-ish Purdue/Iowa game.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^
The problem is that OSU only has their bi-annual-ish Purdue/Iowa game against Iowa and Purdue. Never against Michigan.
And I admire them for that. They always get their best players to play their best game against Michigan.
Even yesterday when they had the Big Ten East already locked up and the Michigan game was not for anything tangible.
It did not matter. It was the Michigan game, that was all that mattered.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
this is a 9-3 program. Always has been, always will be. Can't expect to beat Wisc, PSU 90% of the time. One non-conf loss happens every other year. OSU is what it is: a firewall to any real chance of a division title.
Everyone that complained about being in a different division than OSU back in Legends/Leaders - you got your wiish
December 1st, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
9-3 is acceptable, at least for fans my age, as long as OSU is one of the 9. Preferably MSU and ND too.
They're just men down there. They can be beaten. We just need to fully commit to doing it and make it happen.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
So what you are saying is that your preferred “acceptable” outcome is something that has only happened six times in the storied history of U-M football.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
they put their grey pants on one leg at a time. full circle.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
overlooking Washington I see
December 1st, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Washington won't affect our chance to go to Indy. Our toughest Big Ten road game next year other than OSU is Minnesota. It's actually a schedule that a good Michigan team would actually be able to navigate. It will depend on a lot of things, of course, but I think the 2016 or 2018 Michigan would be able to get to Columbus without a Big Ten loss with next year's schedule.
December 1st, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^
nope. I’ll probably be in Seattle, in fact. It’s just that it doesn’t matter at all for the Big Ten Championship. I don’t give a damn about the playoff until we can hit that milestone first.
December 1st, 2019 at 11:54 AM ^
Our most feasible chance to get to Indy in 2020?
Buy a ticket.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:57 PM ^
Maybe instead of our yearly team trip to exotic locals, Jim can by 100 tickets to Indy and take the team to see what it’s like to play for a championship
December 1st, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
We should join the west division.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
Fuck that. Beat them.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
2020 will likely be the same as it always is - up to now, every B1G team that has gone 6-0 in their division has gone to Indianapolis. 6-0 leaves a margin of error: can still lose an out-of-division game and be fine. 6-0 is a tough task, but I think that needs to be the goal for a U-M (or PSU).
5-1 can get you there, but you'll obviously need help.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
Hire the Alaska Fairbanks Space Bear to do a number on Ohio Stadium during their home opener next year. Outside of that, it ain’t happening.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
OSU is going to be better next year. Stop dreaming.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
December 1st, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^
So do I! That was the whole point of this post!
December 1st, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Wow. Doing a comprehensive tie breaker scenario for 2020?
If this doesn’t make me take a vacation from the Blog I’m not sure what will.
December 1st, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
Just win the game. Every week. That’s really it
December 1st, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
College football loves OSU, so does the committee. Beating OSU and having a better record and winning the division outright is the only way to get to indy.
Your optimism is nice but with the current roster and talent gap, not to mention our horrible defense, were not beating g OSU any time soon. Let's see if we can win a crappy bowl game first. That is a huge challenge for this staff and program
December 1st, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
Our best chances to go to Indy are:
1. Move to the West
2. OSU decides to stop playing football
December 1st, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
December 1st, 2019 at 5:59 PM ^
Yes! We are not beating OSU in the next five years. Neither is anyone else except maybe once in a while. Penn State is not beating them next year either.