OTish: Case study on how a blue blood went from good to not
I'd been thinking about how there were other programs of similar ilk who had too, fallen on hard times and then wonderful David Hale tweeted this out on my lunch. Good read and definitely worth it to read his accompanying twitter thread.
This is obviously about FSU, but think of us, Texas, Nebraska, USC, Miami, Texas A&M (kinda). A blocked kick is all that really prevents me from putting Penn State here. Virginia Tech fell off of a cliff. All of that to say we're not the only ones out there.
Anyways, here for the story.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
I read the article and thought it was a fascinating look at what happens when a football coach, athletic director / department and boosters are on completely different pages. The brief paragraph about Clemson's stakeholders being on the same page was insightful as well.
Organization, structure and processes matter.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:44 PM ^
Ok, everyone turn to the page entitled, "cheating." Everyone on the same page? Good.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
This is so spot on. The problem is that it also includes the conference commissioners and sports media. Does anyone honestly believe that if you were to start digging into Alabama recruiting 10 years ago or Ohio State recruiting under Tressel, or how Dabo was able to get Tahj Boyd and Sammy Watkins that you wouldn't find serious infractions? Then even when they do find them, (Reggie Bush at USC, Cam Newton at Auburn) the Conferences and NCAA just say "whoops....oh well fuck it". I used to feel differently, but in the year 2020, there is zero point to following NCAA rules regarding recruiting. PAY FOR THE BEST TALENT. End of story
November 19th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
This is a cop out. If you go by recruiting rankings, programs with equal or lesser talent and equal or lesser brand strength than Michigan have won BCS games (Stanford, Michigan State), had CFP appearances (Michigan State, Washington, Oregon) and produced Heisman Trophy winners (Baylor). Aside from our BCS bowl wins in 1999 and 2011, we have accomplished none of those things.
The idea that we underachieve solely because other teams cheat and we don't is a delusion of our fanbase.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:10 PM ^
And you thinking that the Bama's, Clemson's, and OSU's, are on the up and up is incredibly delusional.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:40 PM ^
Yeah, I'm not sure how you inferred from my comment that I thought 'Bama, Clemson, or OSU are on the up and up.
My point is that talent or access to talent--irrespective of how that talent is recruited, signed, and retained--is not the cause of Michigan's problems.
November 19th, 2020 at 10:36 PM ^
I agree. I think it’s a mixed bag. Despite the talent we get we still seem to struggle with the development anyways.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:51 PM ^
Sammy Watkins would have come to Michigan if RR didn't get fired. So were we cheating too? Why did Rashan Gary stay committed to Michigan instead of going to Clemson with the 300,000 offer? Are you saying he didn't get paid something to come here?
November 19th, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^
That's not really true either though. The thing that Saban did that turned LSU and Alabama into monsters wasn't "cheat more." It was organizing the program so that everyone, boosters included, were on the same page with no freelancers. Keeping the boosters in their place writing the checks they need to write to the guys they need to write them to is how you end up like Clemson and Alabama, if you don't have that kind of control, you end up with Hugh Freeze Ole Miss with the NCAA up your ass. Or you look like pre-Saban LSU and Alabama where the rich inbreds ran the show and the coach had no real control over the groceries his boosters were buying him to cook.
That organization is also how you make sure the folks writing the checks know how big the checks need to be, so you don't wind up like Michigan and get outbid for the all the guys who matter.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
You're goddamn right with that last sentence. OSU's entire AD coalesces around putting the best possible product on the field. Michigan's AD clings to a belief that there's something special about Michigan that separates it from any other school and that alone is enough to succeed.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:04 PM ^
I definitely think that the issues/turnover at AD has been a factor in Michigan's slide from the ranks of the blue bloods. When you compare the consistency that Wisconsin has had over a number of coaching changes, the one constant is Barry Alvarez is the CEO of the that program, regardless of who the head coach is.
But with Bill Martin hiring Rich Rod while on his way out the door, followed by the mostly disasterous tenure of Dave Brandon, to the abbreviated interim tenure of Jim Hacket, to Warde Manuel, Michigan has been lacking the consistent stewardship that programs like Ohio State and Wisconsin have had over the last decade+
Its hard not to believe that hasn't been a factor in how the football program has fallen behind over the same time period.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
This is a really good point. PAPN (RIP) would frequently mention how significant ADs were in fostering good football programs. They are essentially they key to the entire endeavor, and our lack of continuity there can be part of the explanation for inconsistencies and under-performing football teams.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^
Compare the number of former Ohio State players (31) and Penn State players (18) who are listed as first-teamers for their NFL teams to the number of Michigan players (14) who are listed as first-teamers for their NFL teams (three from the 2020 class: Peoples-Jones, Onwenu and Ruiz) and you might get an idea of how Michigan has fallen from the ranks of college football's "blue bloods".
EDIT/MEMO TO SELF: Always remember to copy the revised message before pasting. Proofread twice; paste once. Haste makes waste. Apologies for the misleading original.
November 19th, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
I counted 15.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
Still half of what it should be. Carr’s numbers were among the best in the land...still see a few on rosters even.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:05 PM ^
You won't find any quarrel from me on that.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
Mea culpa. I'd made the mistake of forgetting to copy my edited comments before pasting the comment in this thread. The corrected version has been posted. I counted 14 Michigan first-teamers.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but your number is way off for Michigan.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^
Mea culpa. I'd made the mistake of forgetting to copy my edited comments before pasting the comment in this thread. The corrected version has been posted.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:24 PM ^
I didn't realize Tom Brady is now a back up QB.
Did anybody tell him?
November 19th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^
Mea culpa. I'd made the mistake of forgetting to copy my edited comments before pasting the comment in this thread. The corrected version has been posted.
November 19th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^
This is a result of Michigan falling off of its perch. This is not the reason. You got it backwards.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
I would imagine TV rights and consumer viewing options has impacted this a great deal. A lot of historical "blue bloods" were the ones featured on TV in the 80s and 90s when you didn't get coverage of every game so there had to be an element of the rich getting richer as those programs were probably more appealing to top tier talent.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^
"From 2015 on, Fisher struggled to regain command of the locker room, often with embarrassing results. It started with the "Yellow Brick Road," a yellow mat painted to look like the yellow brick road from "The Wizard of Oz" that ran along the path to the practice field. Fisher explained at the time that it was to remind players what their purpose was and "what we have to attain." For a program two years removed from a national championship, it was seen as a bizarre tactic."
JFC—I thought Greg Robinson waving a stuffed toy beaver in the face of his defensive players on the sidelines was weird.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:48 PM ^
No, you thought right. That was weird af.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
The article was TL;DR, I skimmed a bit but I'm not interested in the minutiae of FSU's program. I think that if you're looking, you can find dysfunction in every program, even the successful ones. OSU has had 3 National Championship winning coaches get fired/retire in scandal, yet they keep the success up. And the implication that the inverse is true - that unity and commitment among all stakeholders is enough to bring success - is clearly untrue as well. Michigan was about as united behind Harbaugh as they could be in 2015-2017, yet it wasn't enough.
I do think the increased polarization, measured by a gap between the top 3 programs and everyone else, is caused by the CFP and new social media age, which drives recruits, on average, to favor the big 3 with playoff success more than they did in the time leading up to the first CFP in 2014. In the 90s-00s, there were a dozen elite programs at any given time, with U-M, FSU, Tennessee, VT, Miami, Florida, Texas, USC, and more having runs of high-level success. I don't think it's a coincidence that they all seem to have stepped back while one team in each of the big conferences has ascended. So maybe it's not so much that all these programs have simultaneously imploded, maybe they were just far enough behind that when Alabama, Clemson, and OSU took their Big Leaps Forward, they couldn't do enough to keep up.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:39 PM ^
Since 2015 (last 5 years) 3 of the CFP spots each year have been taken by 4 teams (Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma & OSU). No other team has more than 1 appearance. They have the flywheel spinning and the barrier to enter that level is huge. Everyone else is trying to capture lightning in a bottle for one year. Hopefully NIL is the key to join that club.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
I can definitely agree with a lot of your points here. However, Florida and FSU both have won national titles within the last 15 years. FSU did make it to the CFP too. I hesitated and ultimately left Florida off my list of Blue Bloods from years past because they're still performing at a high level. They won 2 titles under Urban and then he left (much to our chagrin) and took over OSU. They wandered around in a tough conference with a couple of idiots at the helm and then made a good hire and are relevant again. FSU went from National Title, to barely making the CFP, to barely beating us, to as dysfunctional a program there is in the Power 5. FSU had every opportunity to keep up with Clemson in the ACC and decided not to (along with some other problems in the program).
To counter your other point about UM being bought into Harbaugh during 2015-2017, that's definitely a much more abbreviated time frame then what Dabo received at Clemson. Now, I understand they are 2 very, very different scenarios, but 'Clemson-ing' was a verb used to describe the second most talented team in the ACC who could not get over the hump and who blew big games they probably could/should have won.
Dabo's extended time at Clemson and Brian Kelly getting more time after the 3-9/4-8 (I can't remember and that bums me out) year, makes me believe 2 things:
- The amount of time it takes to actually get a football program steadily into the top 10, "elite" bucket takes more time than one full cycle of recruiting.
- The amount of problems that exist in the Michigan football program are much more vast than we originally considered or understood.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
I couldn't agree with this take more. Unless you have a bonafide legend walking through the tunnel as your head coach, building a team from rubble takes time. There is only one Nick Saban and only one Urban Meyer. Two of the greatest if not the greatest coaches of all time.
For the teams with good but not legendary coaches, it takes time to assemble the right team (coach, AD, coordinators, boosters) and culture in order to create sustained success. What I see as the main problem with storied teams like Michigan, USC, Texas, FSU, Miami etc. is that the fan bases have no patience and will not "trust the process". If you aren't in the national title race by year 5 you are done. When you are recycling coaches and AD's every 5 years you will never be successful unless a legendary coach falls into your lap. And no legendary coach is going to jump to a team that is in shambles, unless they that school is really their dream school.
Not saying Harbaugh is the right coach for us but if we continue this cycle of hiring and firing, we will never be Bama, OSU, or Clemson.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:05 PM ^
Florida and Dan Mullen most certainly proved that it does not take more than one recruiting cycle.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:21 PM ^
Proven? I’m sorry how many championships has Mullen won with Florida? How many CFB appearances? Sheesh regency bias much.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:49 PM ^
Jesus H, he went 10-3 and beat the shit out of us his first year, went 11-2 last year and is 5-1 now.
November 19th, 2020 at 10:27 PM ^
We were all singing Harbaugh’s praises too in his first years. Look at where we are now. Let’s give it a minute before we crown him.
November 20th, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^
I do not think Mullen has proved that. He's been a homerun hire no doubt, but the benchmark we're using for the success of the program hasn't been met and he has not been there long enough to fulfill the sample size.
All of that to say, he was the perfect fit. He had the requisite amount of experience, he guided Mississippi State to becoming a national player and he's re-establishing Florida. He still has not surpassed Georgia in his own division but they're officially a GOOD program once again.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^
I find it interesting that so many coaches have had wild success and/or won a national championship in the 2nd year of their tenure. Saban (twice), Urban Meyer (twice), Paterno, Bowden, Bob Stoops, Mark Richt, Bobby Petrino, Tressel, Gary Patterson, etc. Most of these guys took over programs that were down or at least perceived to be down at the time.
One, it shows that excitement for a new coach and a unified front can organize an existing roster in a single recruiting class or two.
Two, it really sets the table for continued success through early results galvanizing a program.
November 20th, 2020 at 8:41 AM ^
Agreed. Of the ones I know more about, they usually seem like situations where a program is a little down but not that down, or the previous coach did poorly with a lot of talent, or the previous coach didn't really get a chance to let their new talented young players mature before getting fired.
Meyer took over for a talented OSU team that had 1 off year and only fired Tressel because of scandal. Tressel took over a lot of talent at OSU. Saban took over an Alabama team that was 10-2 2 years before he got there and had a .500 year with scandal so Shula got fired. They must have had some talent already. Didn't win an NC until his 3rd year though. Still the same idea.
It's already been mentioned here a bunch but I think Harbaugh took over a similar situation. We could definitely be just 1 game away from a very different program. Feels like we've been struggling in quicksand ever since.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:32 PM ^
I find it interesting that so many coaches have had wild success and/or won a national championship in the 2nd year of their tenure. Saban (twice), Urban Meyer (twice), Paterno, Bowden, Bob Stoops, Mark Richt, Bobby Petrino, Tressel, Gary Patterson, Pete Carroll, etc. Most of these guys took over programs that were down or at least perceived to be down at the time.
One, it shows that excitement for a new coach and a unified front can organize an existing roster in a single recruiting class or two.
Two, it really sets the table for continued success through early results galvanizing a program.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
If you want to fix college football parity and give some of these downtrodden blue bloods a fighting chance its going to take some restructuring of the system. Unfortunately, the current superpowers have the most sway and it goes against their best interest to do so and until we reach a breaking point of the sport's popularity diminishing there will be no changes. Regardless, here's my fix:
- Reduce scholarship limit to 70 and take the excess 15 and let the schools divide them up among other sports
- Limit recruiting classes to no more than 20
- Ban oversigning and grey shirting
- Hire a commissioner that has full authority to set guidelines for scheduling requirements
- Expand the CFP
November 19th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^
The NCAA has helped create this current problem largely by not being open to a true playoff system. By limiting it to four teams, once the "Big Four" get established it becomes increasingly harder for everybody else to recruit. Kids nowadays want to go where they will be in the spotlight. They also see being on one of these teams is their ticket to the NFL via the expanded exposure and getting to play at a higher level due to being surrounded by other really good players. Until the NCAA figures out, just like the NFL did that parity is good for revenue across the board, they will continue to bury their heads in the sand and stay with the retarded four team play-off.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:30 PM ^
I dont think oversigning and grey shirting have received enough attention in college football - most especially in the early 10 year SEC run. To me, that is what really set the SEC apart in the last years of the BCS. They were early to the game in quietly oversigning and managing their roster to allow massive classes every cycle. So much easier to hit big when your recruits grow exponentially. Also that added depth is huge over time. You would often see bowl games where the SEC team got punched in the nose early but they would grind back. Their 2nd and 3rd string were often not much different than their first string. The other conferences would have injuries and/or subs in game and would lose the edge big time. When the Clemson's and OSU's and Oklahoma's of the world started keeping up with the oversigning arms race - what do you know, they've been highly competitive with the SEC while also steamrolling less committed programs in conference.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:39 PM ^
You can't lump USC in there.
From 2002-2008, they were an absolute giant, won two natties, almost super close to a third. They were a power in relatively modern-day terms.
Michigan was never that good in that stretch- USC was on another planet.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^
They were definitely on another level in those early Carrol years but after Leinart and Bush, things definitely started to adjust back towards being very good and not a Death Star. Combined with how bad things have been at USC for the past decade (Sans the Darnold, beating PSU year) they're certainly within the has beens bin with the rest of us. From 2010-2019 they have one (1) conference championship where they beat an 8-4 Stanford team instead of playing the 10 win Washington Huskies. They haven't been "relevant" since Carroll.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:19 PM ^
Even more so that they have had premiere access to one of the best recruiting areas in the country. They more or less had OSU's Midwest level grip on all of California for the past decade. Compound that with the fact that the PAC 12 has been hilariously easy to win recently and their failures seem much larger than Michigan's.
If Michigan was in the PAC 12, i'm confident they would have won a few conference championships and probably a playoff appearance or two.
November 19th, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^
It was a program defined by history with no clear vision for the future.
*spiderman pointing gif*
November 19th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^
I think one take away is that the idea a program like Michigan just needs to find a coaching candidate with a strong resume and 10 wins seasons are nearly guaranteed is simply not true (I realize no one says this explicitly but there's assumption that years like 2015, 2016, & 2018 are more or the less the baseline). A lot of programs with history, strong alumni followings, nice stadiums and other facilities have and are struggling. I would argue that it should be easier to win at Texas, Florida State and USC than here based on the local recruiting base.
November 19th, 2020 at 6:39 PM ^
"There is only one Nick Saban and only one Urban Meyer. Two of the greatest if not the greatest coaches of all time."
Yup, and one of them doesn't have a coaching job at the moment...
wtf is UM waiting for?
November 20th, 2020 at 7:54 PM ^
Hiring someone who actively covered up for an abuser despite being a mandatory reporter is a bridge way too far.
November 19th, 2020 at 7:17 PM ^
It is simple! The 4 team playoff has created 3 super teams and one of them is in our division. Either end this stupid 4 team playoff system or expand it to 8 to 12 teams. Face it the talented kids want to play on a team that has a good chance to make the playoffs and win a NC. We will never catch OSU under this current playoff system.
November 20th, 2020 at 7:55 PM ^
That's only one of our problems. We can't do anything about the OSU Death Star directly, but we're certainly not doing everything we can outside of that.