OT: Which College Football Coach Gets Canned First This Season?
Creating this post is becoming a bit of an annual tradition for me, but as we lead up to the season, there will inevitably be coaches who get canned for not living up to expectations, off-field issues, etc. Who do you all think gets canned first and why? Here are some of my leading candidates:
1) Scott Frost - the easy and obvious choice. Facing a restless fanbase and a new AD who didn't hire him and owes him nothing. Has the talent to win a very weak Western division, but his teams can't seem to ever get out of their own way. I think he has to at least get a winning record this year to save his job, coupled with winning a "statement game." If he manages to knock off Oklahoma at home in week 3, that alone may save him as long as he makes a bowl.
2) Bryan Harsin - probably not having this discussion if Auburn doesn't absolutely blow it in the closing minutes of the Iron Bowl, but they did, and here we are. Losing both of his coordinators and coupled with off-field investigations throughout the offseason make him an easy target. I think he lost his OC, hired a new one, and then that OC left a few weeks later. Coupled with the fact that he just from Day 1 never seemed like a cultural fit for the university anyway. I'm guessing the Auburn faithful at this point are just looking for an excuse to get rid of him.
3) Mike Norvell - Not sure how much longer FSU can take being this bad. They certainly recruit well enough to win, but FSU has seemed to have a culture issue for quite a while. At least since Fisher's last season in 2017. If they don't win at least 8 games, will they fire Norvell and then swing for the fences with Meyer in the offseason? FSU or Auburn are programs I wouldn't put past selling their souls for 5-7 years of glory under Meyer.
4) Geoff Collins - not sure anyone at Georgia Tech ever expects to win big in a given year, but those teams have been pretty bad since Paul Johnson left. Not even making bowl games. He's had some extenuating circumstances (Year One transition costs in 2019, 2020 COVID year, etc.), but they were still plenty bad last year, too. I'm guessing its bowl game or bust for Collins.
Feel free to include anyone I'm missing!
August 24th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
Although I want it to be Frost for crimes against football humanity he will likely bounce back this year. All the one score losses finding the median and a favorable schedule fall in his favor. Then again Harbaugh beating his ass on the regular is some penance for the Tom Osborne Memorial 1997 Championship trophy.
Mike Norvell- FSU is too proud and the NIL and conference merger stakes too high for a school with that tradition and expectation to go beyond this year and they look like a train-wreck.
Also this play was illegal!
August 24th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
Frost and Nebraska should bounce back this year. They have some talent and if they stop turning the ball over in critical situations (no longer having Martinez at QB will help), they'll win some of those close games. However, if they somehow lose on Saturday to Northwestern, his seat is going get really hot, really fast.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
Yeah switch 2021's Nebraska turnover luck and MSU's turnover luck and those records could have very easily been reversed.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
I'm not convinced the problem is entirely Martinez. Despite being a four-year starter he never really improved, which I have to attribute to coaching.
Even when he started Smothers against Iowa, Frost tended to put his QB in bad positions. Like trying to have Smothers throw out of the end zone only to get sacked for a safety--which also happened to Martinez against Michigan State (well, intentional grounding in the end zone).
Having said that, they were better than their record last year--even if that mean they should have been about 6-6.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
If NW beats them he might get left on the tarmac in Ireland.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
I wouldn't blame anyone for leaving him behind. NW is going to be really bad this year. And that's saying something!
August 24th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
Nah his buyout is cut in half (~$15M to ~$7.5M) in October, so they'll at least wait that long to can him.
August 25th, 2022 at 2:25 AM ^
The B1G is printing money these days. They can afford to can him whenever they feel like it.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
Based on everything I've read about the Big Ten—much of it on MGoBlog—I agree with Hail 2.
While Frost has to take some of the credit for the Cornhuskers' abysmal showing last year—and for acting like an awkward person—a lot of their bad record does seem to have been an unusual string of figurative bad bounces, unlikely to repeat this season.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:42 AM ^
They lost a lot of games (at least 4 off the top of my head) because of dogshit special teams. Nebraska didn't have a special teams coach last year. That's Scott Frosts' fault.
August 24th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
With Nebraska’s schedule (M, IU and Rutger as crossovers) they could conceivably go 8-4 or 9-3 and maybe even win the West.
Norvell is an easy #1 on this list. I was surprised he wasn’t let go already.
August 24th, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^
My guess is that if the guy down in Austin doesn't step his game up he's gone. The Football fans in Texas wont stand for U. Texas to be the 3rd or 4th best school in the state for too long.
August 24th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
My guess is that if the guy down in Austin doesn't step his game up he's gone. The Football fans in Texas wont stand for U. Texas to be the 3rd or 4th best school in the state for too long.
August 24th, 2022 at 2:38 PM ^
Sark's recruiting so well that he's definitely going to get a 3rd year. Getting Arch Manning to commit alone probably ensured that. If he doesn't have a good season in year 3, that's when his seat will start getting hot.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
If Scott Frost's Mom's son struggles vs NW on Sat, then gets hamblasted in front of the home crown against OU (1st game in 10+ years against them?), then loses at Rugters, he will be shown the door on Sun 10/8 and it will be glorius.
August 24th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^
Nebraska played at Oklahoma last year actually. It was a very competitive loss (no surprise there).
August 24th, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
That's my birthday!
August 24th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
I live in Tallahassee, and look on with awe at the way FSU has killed the goose that laid the golden egg. People really bought into the cornpone BS of the whiney Fisher, who always had one foot out the door. They just hired the most extraordinary good old boy as AD. He can barely put sentences together, but he promised to bring football back to glory and to concentrate on it to the exclusion of all else, whereupon he let our 3-time national champion women's soccer coach go, to the dismay of tens of thousands who had flocked to the games, seeing the emergence of womens' sports as proof that FSU had entered the 21st century.
Norvell is something of a nonentity, but seems to have the trust of a lot of the football alumni, who control some of the politics of the town, and are increasingly resented, which doesn't help sell tickets. . . I won't be surprised if they hang on to Norvell for a while.
It's painful, because FSU has climbed from 64th, when we got here, in the US News [edit] public uni rankings, to 18th, really become a good school. My wife--full disclosure--has written two books and cares deeply about her research and work. But much of the faculty here AND at UF want to leave, thanks to moves to quell free speech by the governor--70 percent of UF faculty say they are actively working on it--and football is mired in mediocrity. I've gone from delight in what a wonderful, beautiful, and promising place this is/was back to despondency.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
I'm no believer in the USNews Bullshit rankings (there are better ones and colleges game the rankings anyway), but FSU is 55 which is laughable enough as it is.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:48 AM ^
Sorry, number eighteen among public unis. And no, it's not laughable for scholars who went to great schools but--obviously you don't know much, although your name says plenty--then have to go and find work in their chosen fields. They spread out across the country, where work is extremely hard to find. Now please post your resume, and please--stay arrogant. 84 M grad who grew up in A2 and did his entire academic career, through PhD, on scholarships here; tell us about yourself, please. :) The point, irrespective of this kind of lame hauteur, is that a whole bunch of people worked very hard to lift both FSU and UF out of mediocrity and are seeing/feeling like it has come crashing.
August 24th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
hang on, let m efind where I saved my most recent CV.... yep here it is
August 24th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
Speaks for itself.
August 24th, 2022 at 4:13 PM ^
+1 I am now humbled and amazed. A whole new level of resume awesomeness.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
It's painful, because FSU has climbed from 64th, when we got here, in the US News rankings, to 18th, really become a good school.
It's important to note that FSU climbed to #18 in the 2020 USNWR ranking of public universities, not all universities. I did a double take when I read that and tracked the rankings down, because there'd be no way that FSU could credibly have jumped us (~#23 in the national rankings, but the #3 public university)...
August 24th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
"...thanks to moves to quell free speech by the governor..."
Hahahahha. Hilarious and untrue.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
If Jackson State continues to roll, there will be extra noise on top of the FSU situation
August 24th, 2022 at 10:48 AM ^
I think Bo Polini gave his pussy to Scott Frost.
August 24th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
Scott Frost wishes he had Bo Pelini's pussy...at least Nebraska would've fired him by now...
August 24th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
I actually think Nebraska will be decent this year so I wouldn't bet on him. However, a poor start and he's likely gone favorite son or not.
Harsin & Norvell are solid bets, IMO. One of them will probably be gone by mid-season but the early signing period has changed so much with regard to when coaches get fired that a lot comes down to the recruiting class. Have a bum HC with a tanked season by October but a surprisingly good recruiting class? Wait until the kids are signed to fire him and hope the recruits stick with the new guy. Got a HC you are on the fence about in October but his class is unremarkable? Dump him now and hope the new hire gets enough hype to grab some kids late.
So there are now more variables than before the ESD.
August 24th, 2022 at 3:59 PM ^
I think the portal actually makes coaches more expendable at any time. There's not this ticking timeclock of National Signing Day where new coaches have to get a staff and reach out to recruits in breakneck speed because that's it until the next cycle.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:53 AM ^
Responding to your points but not your question.
1. I hope Scott Frost gets it together at Nebraska to be a perennial 8-4. Obviously don't like him from a Michigan fan perspective, but I think coaching for your alma mater is cool. The world needs more Pat Fitzgeralds and fewer Rich Rodriguezes.
2. I'd love to see Urban Meyer coach at FSU. It'd be a great F-U to OSU and Florida. I would then like to see him flame out like he did at Jacksonville.
August 24th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
but I think coaching for your alma mater is cool. The world needs more Pat Fitzgeralds and fewer Rich Rodriguezes.
I've always found fascinating the connection (or lack thereof) a coach has to his alma mater. For example, I personally could never coach at OSU or MSU or ND. Just couldn't do it. But we've had plenty of examples just here at Michigan. Carol Hutchins played for MSU. Moeller was a captain(!) for OSU. And yet they built their legacies here.
Even crazier is when you poach a head coach from their alma mater. It's not even a situation where, ok, this is the school giving me a start/job. They already have the top job at their alma mater (dream come true right?), but your school is enough of an upgrade that they just kick their alma mater to the curb. Mel Pearson (MTU) and RichRod (WVU) are two recent examples.
So I assume your RichRod comment was referring to him leaving WVU for us. Because for a while he was a Pat Fitzgerald, an alum who resurrected his alma mater from the ashes to become one of college football's coaching darlings...
August 24th, 2022 at 1:18 PM ^
Rich Rod was promised a bunch of things when he turned down the Bama job before the 2007 season. Some of those things didn’t happen, his relationship with the AD and university deteriorated, and when he asked WVU for a $50K raise for his staff and they turned him down, he knew it was time to go.
Mel Pearson I get. He was an assistant for UM at 24 seasons. Youre offered a job by the biggest & best hockey program of all time. It’s hard to say no. It’d be like if the football coach of MSU or Wisconsin got offered the Bama or Georgia job. I’d understand them taking the offer
August 24th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
I am going to go out on a limb and say Mike Leach. It will be for something he says that is taken out of context during a press conference and the university will be forced to fire him.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
there's a high likelihood that happens.... and its too bad...... Leach is always entertaining.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^
He's in the state of Mississippi. What the hell could he say in Mississippi to get fired? Especially if MSU (NTMSU) is having a decent year?
August 24th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
What the hell could he say in Mississippi to get fired?
Something woke?
August 24th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
He says enough idiotic things in context to get fired. Never understood the love this moron gets just because he rambles on like a drunken uncle.
August 24th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
What do you have against drunken uncles? They can be the life of the party. :)
August 24th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
Nebraskas schedule is too easy not to win at least 6 games and a 6 win season will actually save little frosts job. My candidate is James Franklin. If they lose to Purdue and then auburn 2 weeks later he gone
August 24th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
Yeah, Franklin is not getting fired. He just signed a new contract with a pretty hefty price tag for PSU if they fired him without cause:
According to the buyout terms, Penn State would owe Franklin $8 million (his guaranteed salary plus a $1 million loan for life insurance) times the number of remaining years on the contract if it terminates him without cause.
As a result, Penn State's buyout is $72 million in 2022, $64 million in 2023 and $56 million in 2024. Even after five years, Franklin's termination buyout is $40 million. The term sheet Penn State released does not include whether those numbers can be mitigated or negotiated.
But he can get out of this contract pretty easily after this year if he wants another job:
Conversely, if Franklin leaves for another NFL or college coaching position, he would owe Penn State these annual buyout totals:
- 2022: $12 million until April 1, $8 million after April 1
- 2023: $6 million
- 2024: $2 million
- 2026-30: $1 million
- 2031: No buyout
I don't understand how this guy manages to pull this much money. But it's a good deal if you can get it.
https://www.si.com/college/pennstate/football/penn-state-coach-james-franklin-contract-buyout-terms
August 24th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
I'm okay with this. If there's anyone at a top program, that recruits pretty well, that can reliably be counted on to underperform, it's Frames Janklin. PSU won't be a legit playoff threat for the next 10 years, unless it expands such that the B1G can get 3-4 teams into it.
August 24th, 2022 at 12:19 PM ^
Frankin's agent is an absolute genius. Whatever commission he's getting isn't nearly enough.
August 24th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
Franklin would have to go 0-12 with a 35-3 loss to Rutgers, and then maybe he'd be on the Hot Seat.
One thing about PSU --- they haven't let a HC go for strictly-performance related reasons, well ........ EVER. Unlike most schools, that's a discussion PSU admins, fans, boosters, etc have no experience with.
Franklin's 2016-2021 performance isn't too different than JoePa's 2008-2011 performance. Multiple Top 10 seasons and a B1G Title to start, then more mediocre the last 2 years. Despite that, there was NO talk of letting Paterno go prior to the Sandusky story erupting. And that was with Paterno being an 80+ year old man who was coaching from the press box and had obviously lost 30 MPH off his fast ball.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
Ryan "John Cooper 2.0" Day..... after he loses to Michigan in consecutive seasons, the suckeye nation will be calling for his head.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
One of my best friends is a HUGE OSU alum/fan who goes to every Buckeye game home & away except for Ann Arbor (that's a whole different story but basically he's convinced Michigan fans treat OSU fans they way we're treated in Columbus) but anyways....
I asked him the other day if Day would get fired or murdered if he lost to us this year at home. He said "that's never going to happen" so asked him again and he deflected again. This is not a possibility they're even willing to entertain happening.
I honestly think if we were to beat them again, this year, in Columbus, they would consider firing Day as insane as that seems right now.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
If OSU loses again I think Day either gets forcefully pushed at various NFL openings or possibly gets one of those Urban Meyer "I've got health/family issues and I need to take a step back" type of deals. I don't think OSU would want to openly admit they made a bad hire here but he'd absolutely be gone.
August 24th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
I just wish they didn't have Fickell waiting right there for them to de-risk the situation.
August 24th, 2022 at 4:47 PM ^
And that's the problem - Fickell is just hanging around Ohio waiting on Day to move back to the NFL. Not so sure I like that scenario. Would rather have Day at OSU
August 24th, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
Why? What makes Fickell a more feared coach than Day?