OT: Weekend Betting - Week 4
Please post your weekend bets, what you're thinking of betting, or whatever to do with betting for Saturday's slate of games.. I'll start (all lines are from when they were placed):
(Last week record: 6-3 ; Overall season record: 14-12)
Saturday:
Texas at Texas Tech, 3:30pm: Texas Tech +7
James Madison at App St, 3:30pm: JMU +7
Rice at Houston, 6pm: Over 51.5
Arkansas vs Texas A&M (AT&T), 7pm: Arkansas +2
Wisconsin at Ohio St, 7:30pm: Ohio St -19
Vanderbilt at Alabama, 7:30pm: Over 59
Boston College at Florida St, 8pm: Boston College +17.5
Kansas St at Oklahoma, 8pm: Oklahoma -13
USC at Oregon St, 9:30pm: Oregon St +6.5
Notable spreads of discussion:
Michigan currently sits as a 17 point favorite over Maryland. Over/Under is 64.5
Minnesota currently sits as a 3 point favorite over Michigan St (in EL)
Tennessee currently sits as a 10.5 point favorite over Florida (in Tennessee)
North Carolina currently sits as a 1.5 point favorite over Notre Dame (in NC)
Clemson currently sits as a 7 point favorite over Wake Forest (in WF)
Other lines:
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
Haven't seen Minny play; does that spread suggest they are the real deal or some serious concern about Tucker & Co?
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
I think they're the real deal for the most part (although who knows who will win the west), but it's worth noting that their best WR Chris Autumn Bell just went out for the season, and so that'll obviously hurt them.
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
Minnesota seems pretty good, but I also think there's some overreaction to MSU's garbage performance at Washington. Minny runs 70% of the time and while Ibrahim is a fantastic back, that plays into the strength of MSU's defense. I'm also a little suspect about Minnesota's passing game now that Autman-Bell is out for the season.
If you could find MSU +3.5 I think that would be a great play.
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:27 PM ^
-3.5 on the road is Vegas baiting the public to take the bet
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
My parlay - Oregon, Texas, Michigan (and the over), Sparty, Florida.
also, I don't bet. I just think this is how things will play out
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
I'll take M at -17 and the over - feeling a 52-17 kind of game.
I also like JMU to cover against App St. if not win outright
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
Yeah, App State has had a crazy season thus far and seems ripe for a letdown. JMU was an FCS power and looked great in their first two games as an FBS team (blowouts over MTSU and Norfolk State). I like them to win outright. I'm also an idiot.
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
Here is my own computer ratings and prediction algo for all the games. It’s only based on this season so small sample size errors abound.
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^
My bets this week:
JJ for Heisman +3000
Syracuse -9.5
Texas -4 (early)
TCU -1
Minnesota +1 (early)
Arkansas +2
MD/MICH o62
CLEM/WF o57 (early line went the wrong way!)
Michigan -17
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^
Curious why you like JJ for Heisman? Feel like it was a missed opportunity last week to put up stats against Uconn if he wanted to be in contention. I like Corum a lot better - already up to 7 TDs and averaging 7 YDs a carry.
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^
Its just a flyer on a hot new QB name with a name brand program that has a decent chance to win conference and go to playoff. JJ odds are already down to +2000 and I anticipate a big PR bump when you see his name at the top of the passing QB stats. Right now he doesn't have enough attempts per game to qualify but you can see him at the bottom of this table: http://cfbstats.com/2022/leader/national/player/split01/category02/sort01.html
Compare his YPA and Completion % to those at the top of the table and you can see if he keeps up at a similar pace he'll pop in at the top of the national stats.
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:43 PM ^
Yep, the moment our WR got tackled at the 1 for the second time of the game my first thought was that hurts JJ's Heisman chances, and I'm not being sarcastic.
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:29 PM ^
Syracuse was a dumb public bet. Your off to a good start. Virginia plus 10 all day
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^
Draft Kings over/under for Tanner Morgan passing yards is 169.5
Do with that information what you please
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
You misread it. That yardage prediction is for the first half.
September 23rd, 2022 at 3:03 PM ^
It's not...
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:30 PM ^
Is that a joke? No that's literally what his over and under is for the full game
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
I like us to cover, but I’m not touching that over/under
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
I got Syracuse at -9.5 tonight ... thought that was pretty low, playing at home vs Virginia
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:30 PM ^
You got baited by Vegas lol..
September 23rd, 2022 at 1:45 PM ^
Apart from the moonshot, 12 team parlay that I throw a few bucks on each week, this is my betting slip for Saturday:
Buffalo, moneyline
Iowa vs. Rutgers, under 34.5
Iowa vs. Rutgers, under 34
Oklahoma -12.5
Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion, over 56.5
Baylor vs. Iowa State, under 45.5
Ole Miss vs. Tulsa, over 65.5
USC -5.5
TCU -2
Kansas -7.5
Wisconsin +18.5, under 57
Arkansas, moneyline
Oregon vs. Washington State, under 57.5
Tennessee first quarter -3.5
Clemson -7
Michigan -17
Michigan -17, over 62.5
Michigan -16.5
UNC, Pick
Good luck to us all.
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:31 PM ^
Wisc is not covering
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
Hopefully not another 2-3 week!
MTSU + 25.5 at Miami FLA
Michigan State +3.5 vs Minnesota
Arkansas +2 vs Texas A&M
Syracuse -9.5 vs Virginia (Friday night)
Toledo -3 at Brady Hoke's bunch (not sure what's all going down there, seems messy in SD)
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:05 PM ^
I have MSU straight up at Even money. Those bastards always find a way to win so I’ll gladly pay to put them behind the eight ball right out of the gate in B1G play.
Also have OSU straight up, but at -1200, so I’ll make about $.80 when they win.
Took the Under with Iowa/Rutgers at 35.5. Should be easy money.
As always, I put $5 down on the UM opponent, which is +600 this week for Maryland. Praying I don’t collect that one.
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
I could use some input from the MGoCommunity on a pro game that I bet on every week. I'm in a survivor pool and you only get to choose a team once during the season. Last week I won with the Broncos.
This week I'm looking at just a few games, but the choices this week are slim. Not too many glaringly obvious games like there were last week:
1. Eagles over Commanders
2. Chargers over Jags
3. Bengals over Jets
or
4. Vikings over Lions
I want to stay away from betting on the Lions because....well....Lions. Any thoughts or insight to those who are better at betting than I am, that would be great!
Thanks!
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Typically I hate picking visiting teams in survivor. Only visiting team this week that I'd consider is KC over INDY. Looks like Hebert is going to play, so LAC over JAX seems solid. Also, if you want to YOLO it, there may not be many more chances for SEA to win this year. This is the second week in a row ATL has had to travel to the WC.
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
I hadn't considered KC, but looking at that is interesting.
Chargers was looking like my best option the more I looked at it.
I wasn't going to count out the Seahawks at home...the line shows EVEN right now.
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
Rams might be a decent look also. The Cardinals have been the worst team in football outside of the last quarter and OT last week.
September 23rd, 2022 at 3:45 PM ^
The Eagles are my pick this week.
September 23rd, 2022 at 10:32 PM ^
Commanders. Eagles are due for a letdown and gave a short week.
Jags. Never take an LA team playing early on the east coast.
Bengals. Desperate for a win.
Lions. Minnesota's brun defense is horrible, and you can't ignore Goff's numbers since the OC switch last season.
But if you have to choose one and want to feel comfortable about it, the Bengals are a mortal lock Sunday.
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
I've got
OSU -18, Lock of the week
MSU +3 vs MN
KState +13 (just a little let down for OU after crushing hated rivals)
CMU +28 at PSU
ND/UNC over 55.5
Iowa/Rutger UNDER 34 and Rutger +8.5
Liberty -25.5 over Arkon
September 23rd, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
NC State -39 against UCONN. For all the units.
September 23rd, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
Watch out for the back door cover...
September 23rd, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
MSU ML +128. Wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota is a better team overall, but I think MSU is slightly undervalued right now, I like their run defense against a team that wants to (perhaps stubbornly) run it, and I don't like Minnesota's ability to exploit a bad pass D. Also I'll take Tucker in a close game at home until I see otherwise. Last I saw is that Reed and Slade were both "questionable" so I wouldn't bet very much actual-actual money, but if I do I win either way.
Oregon St +6. With USC I (keep) betting that their bad D will be exposed -- plus-a-million in turnovers + opposing QB getting hurt isn't usually sustainable -- before said D actually improves (not a given under Lincoln Riley)
Virginia team total under 21.5. Their offense was great last year, stinks this year. Purdue is a much better offense and it took 3 3/4 quarters to cross that number at the CarrierDome.
Notre Dame ML +110. Another undervalued team right now, I expect their offense to get somewhat healthy against a clueless Chizik defense. Another win-win, as I'd take the schadenfreude as well.
September 23rd, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^
I'm going for the long shots straight up tonight: UTEP and Nevada. Not great teams, but their opponents are beatable, and payouts are good.
Not placing my bets on tomorrow's games until the morning, so I'll let y'all know then.
September 24th, 2022 at 1:26 AM ^
Took UTEP ats to fade the public but didnt have it in me to bet them ML
September 24th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
Following up (and a little more on my strategy):
I'm new to betting this year (not counting March Madness pools); for CFB I'm generally taking underdogs. I place very small bets across a portfolio that I hope comes out ahead overall. I assume the vegas sharps know more than I do, so I'm almost never trying to outsmart them with an inside scoop or studying games, I tend to look for discrepancies across the bookmakers and take an outlier's good odds when they're given on the assumption that overall the others will be right and it will net out. I'm up $200 since January, on ~500 bets in total across multiple sports.
Today is busy! I'm taking
Louisville
SMU
Clemson
Auburn
Colorado
Florida
Indiana
JMU
Ball State
Tulane
Charlotte
Purdue
Wisconsin (F*ck the Bucks)
Boston College
Stanford
WMU
Good luck out there, and don't bet more than you can afford to.
September 23rd, 2022 at 6:06 PM ^
Friday:
Syracuse -9.5 home against UVA
Air Force -24 home against Nevada
Saturday:
Only bet right now is Michigan -17 (heavier than usual bet)
EDIT:
Here is what I am thinking for Saturday:
PSU -28 home to CMU
Wake Forest ML home to Clemson is tempting but not sure if I can pull this trigger
Minnesota ML at MSU but this would be a nervous bet
ND/UNC over 55.5
OSU -19.5 home to Wisconsin; I liked this better when it was -17 so small bet
Vanderbilt +40.5 at Alabama is tempting; feels like this could be a back door cover
Rutgers +8 home to Iowa; can Iowa score enough to win by that much?
Florida +10.5 at Tennessee; seems like a lot of points for a pretty good Florida team
Single bets on all. Parlay all of the above for $1 pays $269
September 23rd, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
I really like UNC to cover, Vandy to cover, and Michigan to cover!
BOL
September 23rd, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^
USC easily covers.
5-1 on the year.
September 23rd, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
Agreed. The Trojans are Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week.
September 23rd, 2022 at 10:11 PM ^
I like sports betting for fun and I might win $100-200 one weekend and lose it all the next. I understand there’s no such thing as a sure thing, but it continues to blow my mind how many people hand over money to fraudster handicappers like Vegas Dave to get his picks. Guys like him and convicted felon, Darin Notaro aka Steve Stevens, know less about college football than most members on this board, yet idiots collectively hand over thousands of dollars every day to these guys. Well I got a few picks that are guaranteed absolute blowout winners. Michigan -17 & under 64.5. USC -6.5 and you have to purchase a one month subscription for just $599 ($50,000 value) to get my guaranteed college whale play of the week.
September 23rd, 2022 at 10:14 PM ^
Will you accept artwork as payment?
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:37 PM ^
Weird I don't know any cappers that charge that much, the guy I've followed for a year charges barely 100 and Gave us entire football season to end of year for 150 and he plays like 100 plays a day and makes prob 10k or more a day. He's cashed 29k parlays and multiple 25k parlays. Hits about 75 to 85.
Swept the board tonite for cfb and crushed baseball.
Not all cappers are scammers and some are really good people just smart at reading lines and collecting data
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:54 PM ^
This sounds a lot like humor. Not sure I'd trust a guy that says he wins $100-$200 one weekend then loses it all the next weekend. The kicker is you spend ONLY $599 per month but the value is $50,000. How much do you need to plop down on his picks to win $50,000? Answer: a ton more than the monthly charge. So yeah, this has to be a joke and if it's not then he's certifiably insane.
BTW, who is this capper you speak of that gives you all these winners?
September 24th, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
75 to 85? So we can all retire by next weekend if you just give us this information...
September 23rd, 2022 at 10:39 PM ^
5-1 last week. 8-3 for the year.
I really liked the slate last week and felt pretty confident. Not the same this week. Don’t feel great about these.
Tennessee -6.5 1H - just counting on the better team proving it in the first half. History is not kind to Tennessee in this rivalry so hoping they win the first half.
Indiana v. Cincinnati under 57 - counting on my Indiana is a bad team theory to keep scoring down.
Tulsa under 21.5 team total v. Miss - I heard a stat that Mississippi has not allowed more than 21 pts against their last 7 FBS opponents. This worked for me last week.
Arkansas +2.5 - Honestly no idea but I think they are a better overall team than A&M.
Buckeyes -4 Q1 over Wisconsin. Hope I am wrong but I think they roll again in Q1
Oklahoma -12.5 over Kansas St. - this reminds me of BYU pick last week that did not end well.
Good luck everyone and have fun tomorrow!
September 23rd, 2022 at 11:13 PM ^
I putbinn$25 week 1, got up $100 cashed $25 and was down to my last $5 this weekend. Took cuse to cover and the under so I’m out. Small pot for some but my daughter will be happy when her college savings looks decent. Good luck everyone
September 24th, 2022 at 12:55 AM ^
Your restraint is admirable. Good for you!