OT: Post-Election Stock Market talk
It's been awhile since we've had one of these, so I figured we can check in on thoughts related to the current state of the market, and hear speculation from the forum experts.
I made a few bucks during the initial market rebound by trading in a few companies, but now am about 40% cash and heavy on mutual funds due to the unknown road that lie ahead.
Feel free to share your insights, successes, or letdowns.
November 16th, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
Correct me if I’m wrong but I thought this wasn’t “OT” season.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Correct me if I'm wrong but do you really want to talk football right now?
Really?
November 16th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
It's like the guys at Draftkings said when they went to daytrading. "The stock market always go up!"
November 16th, 2020 at 11:19 PM ^
I believe you’re talking about David Portnoy of Barstool Sports. A Michigan grad. Barstool is teamed with Penn National Gaming.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:01 AM ^
This season is THE DEFINITION of "OFF"
November 16th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
I went 100% cash in my trading account a few days before the election...bloody market is doing the exact opposite of what I thought it would do given all the uncertainty. My YTD is 11% from trading an ETF index fund but the market is way too pricey for me right now. Waiting for a decent correction to buy.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^
I was 50% equities, 45% bonds & 5% cash pre-covid. Last April, when the market was around 24,000 i thought for sure we'd see 18,000 before a correction so I went 25% equities, 40% bonds and 35% cash. With the plan of pushing back into the market at 20,000ish.
Well that plan obviously didn't work. So I guess I'll just stay on the sidelines for now and will wait to see if we correct at all.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
Are you talking your retirement account or trading account? My retirement fund is 100% S&P500 index...I've modeled this a few different ways and balancing it with bonds does not work for me. Even though I'm about 10 years from retirement (God willing) if I live to be 90+ the cash runs out unless I keep it 100% in index funds. Assuming a 7% rate of return over time and an annual drawdown rate of 4% it will continue to grow hopefully leaving something for the family assuming Uncle Sam doesn't seize it all to pay for medical expenses.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
Trading account. My 401K is almost all Vanguard index fund so it's doing fine right now.
FWIW I'm 61 and have way more than enough to live comfortably then rest of my life right now and make sure all my loved ones are taken care of when I'm gone. So going conservative just reduces the amount they'll potentially get from my estate but won't impact my standard of living one bit.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
I'm sorry for you man. But, it's pretty well known that it's really really hard to time a market, and by sitting in cash your more likely to reduce your long term returns than enhance them. You may be missing the worst days in corrections, but in the meantime you're going to miss out on the big up days (like last Monday) that provide most of the +returns
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333853-no-one-saw-coming-should-you-worry-10-best-days
November 16th, 2020 at 11:51 AM ^
I just checked my basement. I think I am good for a while. 
November 16th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
That's nice, but only half of what's in my pillowcase.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^
Market always goes up after an election. Doesn't matter who wins. Market doesn't play politics. They just don't like uncertainty.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:18 PM ^
Good thing this has been such a model transition thus far.
America is extremely fortunate to be led by so many level headed grown-ups.
November 16th, 2020 at 4:34 PM ^
After 4 years of having Captain Uncertainty as president I’m not sure I believe that anymore.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Buy low, sell high has always worked best for me.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^
All in on Bluestar Airlines!
November 16th, 2020 at 11:08 AM ^
We're due for a correction. But we are in the middle of a rotation out of the FNMAGA trade into more value oriented stocks.
I'm wondering if Energy is reaching a bottom and it might be time to do a little shopping.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
We’ve been “due” for a correction how many years now? With low interest rates and government stimulus continuing to occur, hard to bet against stocks.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
Exactly. We've been due for a correction since like 2014, and each drop so far has been just a small blip on the long term trend. I'm staying in the market and prepared to take a big hit at some point (like we did in March before it came right back). And recent Fed activity has shown an even bigger commitment to keeping the market moving up.
That being said, I am hedging a bit with a small amount of gold/silver just in case inflation goes crazy. Most of the gold advocates appear to be cranks but sometimes the people who look out of touch right now will be called geniuses after the fact.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:13 PM ^
Yeah, the research team at Morgan Stanley and I are both idiots.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
I have all my money with JT Marlin. They have some interesting strategies.
November 17th, 2020 at 10:05 PM ^
I agree with this article. Especially the "don't expect a smooth path upwards." Admittedly, I didn't articulate myself very well. . .
November 16th, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^
Energy is up already. XOM is up about 20% and natural gas mlps almost 50% this month.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
With historic interest rates (2.76-3.5%) depending on asset class (apartments, industrial and retail), might not be a bad time to acquire an income producing asset backed by a credit lease. With debt, annual returns can be anywhere from 9-15%
Cash flow is king
November 16th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
OT season is over. Take this shit elsewhere.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:31 AM ^
If the alternative is to talk football, I'd just as soon have a whole series of threads on the best techniques for prostate exams, colonoscopy prep experiences, and methods for cleaning dog shit off of white carpet.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
I think talking about current affairs and the stock market in the country is more relevant to football than whatever this current coaching staff is trotting out of the tunnel every week. Just sayin.'
November 16th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
Time to buy TIPS is drawing near. Stock market is fully/overvalued and they will serve as a hedge to what ought to be a sizable uptick in inflation due to the $4T+ injected in the economy that is just sloshing around. Buy SOX stocks on dips as the semi cycle still has a ways to go -- with a focus on 5G stocks.
November 16th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
I agree with the diagnosis but not the treatment plan.
In an inflationary environment, basic materials, energy and mining are going to skyrocket.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
The market generally favors governmental gridlock. We’ll know a lot more in January after the Georgia runoffs. If Rs end up maintaining control of the senate, markets should do ok and be rather bullish. If not, it’s a wildcard and will depend greatly on what the Ds end up doing. If they go scorched earth and repeal/reverse the course we’ve been on, expect a rather bear market.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:24 AM ^
Agree with this fully.
I think from today through early January (the Georgia results), the market is being/will be driven mostly by vaccine news (e.g., see today). I'm bullish for the next 7 weeks, although arguably most of that short-term bull rush has already occurred.
I think from mid-January on, the market will be driven mostly by (1) governmental gridlock or the lack thereof, as well as (2) how orderly and quick any vaccine distribution goes. There are wildcards involved in each.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
Haha, what a hilariously bad take.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
He’s 100% right, you idiot. Gridlocked Congress means no new taxes like Biden has been pushing for.
November 16th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
Sort of. You have to examine if the democrats sweep Georgia who thei 50th Senator actually will be on each side.
For the democrats, it’s Joe Manchin from West Virginia, and for the republicans, it’s Susan Collins who just won re-election.
Manchin is 94% republican anyway.
Thus, gridlock is assured and no crazy shit like court packing or the Green New Deal is going to happen.
November 18th, 2020 at 9:18 PM ^
Neither of those was going to happen anyway even if both Senate races go D in January. The fact those are even brought up as possibilities/scare tactics based on the composition of the house and senate is laughable. You'd have better luck getting some kind of UBI based before those. Plus the market should favor the proposed infrastructure plan or any COVID plan if that gets a hearing on the Senate floor in early 2021.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^
Right before COVID hit in March, I was 80% equities and 20% bonds and income. April 2, I converted about $60K from TIRA to RIRA and took a position in Microsoft and gradually have reduced my bond and income exposure to about 10%. My accounts are up about 10% for the year. I have gradually converted a portion of my Microsoft position to dividend-paying utilities.
Cashing out and staying in cash during market gyrations is most frequently a big mistake.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
i love watching a bunch of pseudo-intellectuals try to one up each other every time these threads come around
November 16th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^
Ron Burgundy would know what a pseudo-intellectual is?
November 16th, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^
I was already rich and am richer today!
November 16th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
You are all peasants and shall bow before my mountain of gold.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
I took all of my investments out and put it on Rutgers +10.5. My portfolio stands to go up 95% by Saturday afternoon.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
I'd say today is a good day to SELL, SELL, SELL!!! Market will drop tomorrow.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^
The easiest money in the world right now can be made in prediction markets. Without getting too spicy about politics, there are electoral outcome bets that are essentially zero risk and can net you ~10% over a month or so.
November 16th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
Guaranteed returns of 10% per month? My friend Bernie Madoff told me about a great investment just like that!
November 16th, 2020 at 3:41 PM ^
Before patting yourself on the back, check whether you can withdraw your winnings for less than 10% of a service fee.
November 16th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
The market has been and is extremely overpriced (ESPECIALLY Nasdaq issues). They are trading at PE ratios that each company must increase income 25% a year for the next 10 years for the current price to even be fair value. Speculation overkill.
There will be a moderate correction to a recession. If i knew when, i would be a billionaire. Timing is everything, and the market can stay irrational for a long time. I am, however, expecting it to be within 3 months.
Go all cash or short some overpriced stocks like EV's, and or overpiced techs like SEDG/ENPH. Don't go all in on the short though because of the above paragraph. Give yourself room to cost avearage 10 times if need be.
When the correction comes, you will make a ton on above shorts on the way down. Don't be too greedy and hold to to long.
Reverse course and get starting long positions on beaten down, yet growing companies.
I am up 169% in the last year, making most of that on DQ, a bunch on EV's, and a ton on my favorite dividend ABR. I have been out of DQ since 181.98 (my last lot was sold at that price). I was out NIO at 31 and XPEV at 30.
My 'new DQ' is going to be UTCC. I beleive UTCC will be 40-60 a share between there 4th quarter earnings release and 1st quarter 2021 earnings release. I am currently almost all cash, with a small short in ENPH and a long in ABR that i picked up at 4.38 and will probably just hold forever. Post correction/recession i will be loading up on UTCC.
November 16th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
Pump and dump?