OT: NFL Draft - QB's "in the mix" for early picks - Stroud, Young, and Richardson - who would you pick
The NFL Draft is almost upon us - and, that leads into a question of "who will be selected when".
One perspective I've seen is - three QB's will be selected "early". Carolina has the first pick, Houston has the second, and Indy has the third.
The three QB's that seem to be in the discussion are:
- Bryce Young (Alabama)
- CJ Stroud (Ohio State), and
- Anthony Richardson (Florida)
Do you think these are the top three QB's in the draft?
If you had the first pick - for Carolina - who would you pick - and why?
April 11th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
To Me Young is the best by a landslide
April 11th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
In college, sure.
Not really sure how anyone could trust someone with that slender of a frame to hold up over the physicality and endurance of a full 17 game schedule. That matters.
DING DING DING
In the last 11 drafts, only 2 of the 34 1st round QBs were 6 feet or shorter -- Cleveland's Johnny Manziel (6 feet) and Arizona's Kyler Murray (5-foot 10). ... Among those 34 quarterbacks, Murray and Manziel were the lightest, listed at 207.
And if that weren't enough, I found this particularly damning
Starting with Sid Luckman in 1940, only 13 quarterbacks in the weight range threw at least 500 passes. That's all. Thirteen in 83 years. The club is distinguished -- Luckman, Otto Graham, YA Tittle, Babe Parilli, Len Dawson, John Brodie, and Bob Griese -- but thin.
Oh and
There is a more specific red flag. A team hasn't used a first-round pick on a quarterback under 200 pounds since Chicago's Jim McMahon -- 41 years ago!
Nice research. Those “referenced QB’s” played in a very different era. The game today - is SO much different - speed and strength are immensely different.
Those QB’s were all strong in their eras - but, “this isn’t your father’s Oldsmobile.”
Richardson is all hype. Putting up numbers at pro day doesn't equate to NFL success. It's not like he did incredible things at Florida.
He also didn't exactly have good receivers or a stable offense. First year learning, shit receiving corps and a tough schedule.
Richardson is legit and will be legit. The only QB I'm fine with Detroit trading up for.
That's your evidence that he's legit? He didn't have good receivers, was in an unstable offense, and had a tough schedule? How many legit NFL QBs come from this kind of college background, where they have a resume with no statistics but plenty of excuses?
Who cares? He's a great football player with a cannon for an arm. Josh Allen didn't have great stats in the Mountain West.
Looking at stats is an absurd metric for someone with shit surroundings in an offense that asks him to do a lot, including pushing the ball down the field and hitting deep crossers and posts. The dude is legit. You look at some of the biggest QB busts of the last 5-7 years, they're all guys with immaculate stats.
Baker? Amazing stats. Sam Darnold? Awesome stats. Josh Rosen? Pretty darn good stats. Dwayne Haskins? Lit the Big Ten on fire. Mac Jones and Tua? same deal there. Looking at stats for college QBs with no context will lead you to drafting an Alabama or Ohio State quarterback every year and being fucked.
54% completion percentage. 24 TDs and 15 interceptions. Not exactly impressive. Best of luck to the GM who drafts him in the first round!
Not a single one of his receivers is going to make it in the NFL, he played several games missing 4-5 scholarship receivers, he was plagued by drops and he was a 20 year old learning a brand new system with zero help around him.
He can fix a lot of the issues that plagued him on shorter throws, but he can air it out. Again, the SEC is a different beast. Looking purely at stats while Big 12 and Pac 12 QBs throw on air and CJ Stroud can just hit a wide open first round receiver burning whomever from Rutgers or Michigan State is laughable.
There are basically only two stats that correlate college to NFL.
Completion percentage
Interception percentage
“Cannon for an arm” generally increases the Interception Percentage
Didn’t we call complain that Cade had a cannon but over threw his receivers? Later in the season (like in Cbus) he had a better touch and dropped in passes.
I wouldn’t draft and inaccurate cannon. Put it on a receivers hands and he catches it - or his backup gets the start.
Cade????
I think you meant JJ.
Again, correlating stats to the NFL is wild without context. In his first year starting, Patrick Mahomes' completion percentage was 56.8%. Josh Allen's was 56%. Joe Burrow? 57.6% with infinitely better receivers.
Anthony Richardson is 20 years old and either played much better defenses than Mahomes and Allen, or had much a worse supporting cast than Burrow.
April 11th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
I would definitely not pick Stroud. OSU has yet to produce any NFL worthy QB. Every single QB they have produced since Urbs took over has been a super high draft pick and an abject failure.
Don't wast the pick
Of the other two: Young will give you immediate success but has limits while Richardson has all the talent and raw ability but needs to be coached up.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
Good point, you really have to take into consideration the WRs Stroud got to throw to in college. They certainly didn't make him look bad.
Agreed. Stroud also had the advantage of super-clean pockets to throw from the vast majority of the time. But when he didn't, it went downhill quickly.
In the NFL you have to be able to make throws with imperfect footwork. I don't think Stroud has shown he's able to do that.
Richardson has needed to be 'coached up' for 4 years now. The equation to remember about him is: (raw physical ability) + (mental acuity) = Jeff George.
I'm passing on Richardson all day. Yeah, that means I'd rather take Stoud. He played pretty well against Michigan in '21 and against UGA a few months back. I don't think he's a winner, though... My money takes Bryce Young all day, every day, and twice on Draft Day.
i would pass (no pun intended) on all 3 and take the 4th or 5th best QB on their board.
Draft ‘em in the 6th round and hope for a flood of Super Bowl rings!
Richardson has had ONE year as a starter and he's not even old enough to drink...
No shit High School kids need to be coached up. You can take Bryce Young, and then when his body is broken by the end of his rookie deal, you'll be in position to take another QB.
This is a homer take. Fields is on the least talented team in the league and he carried them. If it were not for Brady, Michigan QBs failed to be anything more than average at best. USC and Bama and Oklahoma have had many flash in the pan pros, too. It takes 1 QB from any school to dispel these myths.
This has been the most nauseatingly repeated critique of Stroud—not his actual talent, but the recency biases. Fields is tracking development along the same trajectory as Josh Allen. He’s also showing elite running ability, which is laughable to overlook in and of itself.
Stroud is accurate and mobile, makes the right reads, has the stronger arm, has pro typical size, and has a high IQ.
I’m hoping my Bears draft JSN this year and Donovan Edwards next year.
Bryce Young has preternatural vision and escapability, but I don’t think he’s as fast and slippery outside the pocket in the NFL—despite going against “SEC speed.” [Big Ten prospects at WR, LB, and DB were some of the fastest at combine, so that myth is shrinking.]
Anthony Robinson is only the #1 pick in Madden because in that game athletic #s beat the AI. In reality, not so much. He may have a high ceiling, but he has the lowest floor, and he’s already starting a handful of floors down from Stroud and Young.
Levis—maybe he becomes the class’s Roethlisberger? Maybe he develops into something. But with your logic—what recent Kentucky QB has ever done anything in the pros to warrant such consideration? More than that, he’s got clearer weaknesses with accuracy, timing, and making reads.
Fields "carried" the Bears to...3 wins?
I was just logging in to post this SAME thing! Fields is so overhyped.
Found the Bears fan on the blog.
Yea, he said that in his post
I don't think Stroud has the mental toughness to be taken at the top of Rd 1. I didn't see it the last two games against Michigan and that matters big-time for me. Bryce Young has all the intangibles I love in a QB. Dude is a team player, a play maker and a winner. His stature though...
Richardson wasn't consistent enough for me in college but has a shit-ton of upside. No way I would burn a 1st Rd pick on him. I don't know if he can translate his freakish upside to NFL success. He had the same freakish ability in college and Florida sucked out loud.
I'll play devil's advocate here. What schools are known for producing NFL-worthy QBs? Clemson may be the only team with more than one superstar-level QB in the league currently. I won't ding Stroud because Fields is primarily a runner or Haskins was not reaching his potential before his life was cut short.
My issue with Stroud is he couldn't beat Michigan this past year. I'll give him a pass for losing in 21, as we would not be denied that game--but last season a true "winner" would have won that game at home no matter what happened.
With all that said, I think Stroud will have the best career of the top three QBs. Young's size will be an issue and Richardson seems like an RG3 type--great for a season or two but an ACL or other significant injury will limit his long-term value.
Last point is crazy how going into last year's draft everyone was super high on this year's class, but as we get closer the shine has worn off significantly. I hope the Lions are able to swap 18 for a first round pick next season, so they have the capital to draft one of next years class (JJ?!?!?!).
April 11th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
Some team is going to screw themselves drafting Richardson early because of combine numbers and hope they can develop him. It's gonna be exciting to see who bites first. If my team was taking a developmental QB I'd lean Levis over Richardson
I'd probably lean Young over Stroud. Bama's had pretty good success with NFL QBs lately and I'd be nervous Stroud is a system QB who is used to never being touched and throwing to wide open guys all the time. He could be great and he's got the skills to be, but I'd be worried he doesn't have the mental make up to succeed.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
Seeing people make bad decisions annoys me, but if it means that the Lions get Will Anderson? Please, somebody pick the freak athlete at third overall, damn the ugly tape and stats.
April 11th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
I don't love any of them...
Young is VERY small...I believe only 5'9 and a very slight build.
Stroud throwing off platform and under pressure would worry me a LOT. There won't be any talent deficiencies on his opponents.
Richardson was not great consistently in college at Florida, I wouldn't have much faith that he can do it on a much larger stage.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
Yeah this just doesn't feel like a great QB draft class. Sometimes none of the guys are quality NFL QBs. Just check out the draft classes in say 2014-2016. It ended up pretty bad across the board. Other times you get a class like 2018 where the guys everyone thinks will do well suck (Rosen, Darnold) and the guys people will think suck are franchise QBs (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson) so who knows
April 11th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
I think CJ Stroud acquitted himself very well in the CFP game against Georgia. The one knock on him all along has been his mobility, particularly in the pocket and avoiding the rush. He demonstrated he can handle that pressure from an NFL sized defense. I question his leadership though.
Bryce Young is a very good, but very undersized QB. You saw this year with Tua what happens when these guys take the hits from an NFL schedule. He's one hit away from the IR.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
Yeah Stroud seems like a quiet, stoic guy. Not sure how that's going to translate
April 11th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I didn't realize until now that Murray and Brees both have 10 pounds on Young, while Tua actually has 20 pounds on him.
Edit: Apparently Young put on 10 pounds for the Combine, now matching Murray and Brees, so maybe he just wasn't putting in enough gym time at Bama.
Every player is one hit away from the IR. Teams should draft no one.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Stroud and it wouldnt be close.
Young is very small and despite the claim that he plays bigger than his size, the NFL has a lot more Tyler Murray's and Johnny Manziels than they do Drew Breese. Small QBs in the NFL have a terrrible overall track record and he's pretty short and very light.
Richardson did awesome when throwing against air, just like Zack Wilson did a few years ago. And for every Josh Allen (a player that struggled in college but was great in the league) there are 10 Tim Tebows who are athletic as hell (like Richardson) but cant consistently make throws when you need them. He might turn out ok but the odds are definitely against it and his tape at Florida shows him making a tone of "wow" runs but just as many "what the fuck" throws.
Stroud would've been the #1 pick last year if he came out IMO. He's accurate as hell, and isnt a one read QB. The only knock on him is his reluctance to run but in the NFL I'm not sure that's considered as big of an issue as it is in college.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
My only gripe against Stroud is that he doesn't seem to handle getting pressured well. I don't think Stroud will last long in the NFL, but I agree with you that I'd pick him over the others in this list.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
DITTO.... Not popular here but if I had to draft a QB 1 in this class its him... Accuracy will translate, reading defenses will translate but IMO if Stroud is going to be a franchise QB he has to learn to make plays when there isn't a play to be made. I'm not sure that is who he is. In the NFL the defense play call and design is going to be you a % of the time what are you going to do as the QB on those plays. That is what the top QB's do they find ways to win on some of those plays. Stroud has the physical tools to be a franchise high level NFL QB I am not sure he has the mind but I'm not in pre draft meetings or interviews either. If he checked those boxes for me I'm taking him over Young
April 11th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Strouds going to be throwing to the same talent at WR while the are defended by NFL corner backs. I dont know man if he couldnt get it done versus a solid but much less talented Michigan secondary I dont see how he gets it done in the pros.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
"Couldnt get it done vs a solid but much less talented Michigan secondary"
In his two games against us he was 65 of 97 67% for 743 yards and 4 TDs with (EDIT two) no ints.
OSU can blame their soft defense and inability to run for getting their ass kicked, not Stroud. He wasnt the problem.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
No ints? Found the guy that hasn't been watching the 2022 game highlights twice a week since it happened. He had two - the ill advised shovel pass and a overthrown bomb on their last drive.
Both were in super desperation time so I'm not even going to say they were bad decisions on his part... but he did have interceptions.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
a overthrown bomb on their last drive.
hat 2nd INT wasn't really an overthrow. Rolder was trailing Stover and there were 2 Safeties over the top. The ball went off both of Stover's hands (he's really not that great of a TE IMO). It was put in the only place he could have thrown that particular pass.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
Watching it again I see what you mean. It's in that grey area where the receiver went full extension and the ball still went off his fingertips. It should have been a foot shorter, which I recognize is being very nitpicky.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
Huh? A quick review of the internets tells me that Stroud threw two picks against Michigan in 2022. I definitely remember his desperation throw that was picked off by Taylor Upshaw.
Lots of yards and 14 pts a game with future first round Wrs. Sure I guess but Im not taking him.
He wasnt the problem but with NFL Wrs he wasnt the solution either. It is alternating possessions and not winners out.
So he throws well to Pro-level WRs and you think that’s a knock? Tua and Hurts threw to NFL 1st rounders at Bama, too.
Stroud is very accurate. He also reads the field well. There’s a reason he was starting over a loaded QB room at OSU.
I watched many OSU games because of my family; I didn’t just watch The Game and CFP. Stroud would’ve started over JJ if he were at UM in 2023. JJ holds the ball longer, prone to more inaccurate throws and riskier throws. JJ has more raw talent, but not by much. Stroud is more polished and has better pocket presence.
Looking forward to JJ making a leap this year, where he throws as well all year as he did at Columbus. Would much rather the passing game success we have not be a surprise at the end of the year, but be an intimating factor that makes 〽️ the most feared offense in nation.
Its all good. If Stroud is the boards unanimous pick so be it. Not my cup of tea.
double post.
April 11th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
The one thing Stroud has is incredible accuracy. Yes, he WRs bailed him out with some incredible catches against Michigan over the last 2 years, but those throws weren't necessarily in bad spots. It's not like he threw an out 4 yards over the WR's head and they just leaped up and made an incredible catch (that's what Richardson does).
The 2nd INT in last year's game was a great example. He put that in the tightest of windows some 25 yards downfield with a trailing LB and 2 Safeties over the top. It hit Stover in the hands but ended up as an INT.
Stroud will never zip a pass into a tight window late because of his arm strength. If he gets the read right he'll anticipate the throw and fit it in the window because of his placement. Problem comes if he makes the wrong read and then all bets are off because he tends to get antsy and then can't make up the difference with a cannon of an arm.